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Brisnet.com Triple Crown Throwdown: Runhappy Ellis Park Derby

Ed DeRosa of Brisnet.com takes on TDN’s Steve Sherack and Brian DiDonato as they handicap Triple Crown prep races plus the big three races themselves. The three will make $100 Win/Place bets in the preps and $200 Win/Place bets in the Kentucky Derby, Preakness and Belmont. Highest bankroll at the end wins.

DeRosa – Bankroll: $5230 – GI Runhappy Travers S. Result –Tiz the Law stamped himself as the Kentucky Derby favorite.

Runhappy Ellis Park Derby – Art Collector has done everything right as a 3-year-old. He’s stretched out, he’s stalked, he’s pounced, he’s drawn off. This is an impressive horse to watch race. He doesn’t idle, he doesn’t wait on competition, he doesn’t get lazy. He’s all business and it’s led to devastating wins over good competition. There’s no reason to think that will not continue as his path to the Kentucky Derby winds through the Pea Patch. My hope for this weekend is that both Tiz the Law and Art Collector win as impressively as they have in their other starts this year to set up an incredible showdown beneath the TwinSpires in 27 days. Selection: #4 Art Collector (4-5).

Sherack – Bankroll: $3800 – GI Runhappy Travers S. Result -Now that was impressive. Tiz the Law is certainly the real deal.

Runhappy Ellis Park Derby – Art Collector isn’t supposed to lose this race, but I’m running out of time to find a longshot. I made my case for Sprawl in the GIII Ohio Derby, and while he didn’t run awful, he didn’t post the breakthrough performance I was looking for, either. I’ll try him one more time at what has to be a much bigger price than that 3-1 he was last time. Selection: #3 Sprawl (15-1).

DiDonato – Bankroll: $5500 – GI Runhappy Travers S. Result – Wow—that was really something. Expected Tiz the Law to win, but didn’t imagine him winning like THAT.

Runhappy Ellis Park Derby – I might regret it, but I just couldn’t chalk out three times in a row. Art Collector’s the most likely winner, but this is very much a prep for him given where he stands on points. He’s worked out extremely good trips in all three wins since the trainer change, and it’s possible that he could get sucked into a solid early pace this time. If the pace does get hot, Shared Sense is the horse I want. He seems to be on the improve and clearly likes the distance. Admittedly, the post isn’t great for this configuration. Selection: #12 Shared Sense (12-1).

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Brisnet.com Triple Crown Throwdown: Peter Pan

DeRosa – Blue Grass Result – Art Collector (+$530) wore down Swiss Skydiver for a breakout victory. Bankroll: $4210.

GIII Peter Pan S. – I normally don’t like horses who need 1 1/8 miles on dirt to break their maidens as a 2-year-old, but given this one is by Tonalist, who has needed some time with his progeny, it’s more understandable. I loved Country Grammer’s race in the Fountain of Youth off that maiden win and the comeback wasn’t bad given he had to go long off the bench and was caught wide. Now back to nine furlongs second off the bench and I like his chances. Would loved to have pulled the trigger on Caracaro, but going this long against stakes types off a six-month layoff is a big ask. Selection: #2 Country Grammer (7-2).

Sherack – Blue Grass Result – Still plenty of work left to do to catch the top two, but nice to get back in the win column with Art Collector. Bankroll: $3135.

GIII Peter Pan S. – I couldn’t have been any higher on Mystic Guide following his eye-catching maiden win at Fair Grounds, and getting back to two turns with some added distance to work with after a good second in a quickly run race should be right up his alley. Will be making a nice exacta box with Candy Tycoon. Selection: #6 Mystic Guide (5-2).

DiDonato – Blue Grass Result – Rushie settled for third at 7-1 after a wide trip. This thing’s getting close. Bankroll: $4375

GIII Peter Pan S. – Mystic Guide and Country Grammer, the second and third finishers in that salty allowance won by Tap It to Win at Belmont June 4, are the two I’m most interested in (Caracaro’s also intriguing, but not sure what to make of him). I believe I’ve picked both in earlier contest races, but decided to side with Country Grammer here for red-hot (always hot?) Chad Brown. Mystic Guide finished 1 1/2 lengths ahead of Country Grammer, but the latter covered about two more lengths of ground according to Trakus data. Country Grammer also made a tougher move, being asked for his run earlier from farther back while off cover. He seems better suited to this two-turn nine furlongs, and is already a winner at the distance. Selection: #2 Country Grammer (7-2).

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Brisnet.com Triple Crown Throwdown: Indiana Derby

DeRosa – Los Alamitos Derby Result – Uncle Chuck delivered as the heavy chalk. Bankroll: $3680.

GIII Indiana Derby – I had a real tough time separating Earner, Necker Island, and Shared Sense, but one thing is for sure: if those are the three I like, then this should be a playable race as I see both Major Fed and Winning Impression as vulnerable at their morning-line prices. Ultimately, I landed on Earner on top. He fell short going the nine-furlong Indiana Derby distance last out at Churchill Downs, finishing behind next-out Ohio Derby winner Dean Martini and next-out Blue Grass aspirant Man In the Can. His speed can be a weapon here over the aforementioned other contenders I like. Selection: #4 Earner (8-1).

Sherack – Los Alamitos Derby Result – Longshot Great Power set the pace and faded. Bankroll: $2605.

GIII Indiana Derby – The lightly raced Extraordinary still has some upside and enters off a better-than-it-looked fourth-place finish going this distance at Churchill Downs last month. He lost valuable early positioning that day, and made a flashy, wide move on the far turn from far back en route to a very solid effort. Runner-up Dean Martini returned to upset the GIII Ohio Derby. Have to like Luis Saez making the trip to ride as well. Let’s see if he can work out a better trip this time around. Selection: #2 Extraordinary (10-1).

DiDonato – Los Alamitos Derby Result – Required a back-up pick once again, and Thousand Words ran second, but there was no place betting in the race. . . ouch. Bankroll: $3755.

GIII Indiana Derby – Earner and Juggernaut look like they may set this one up for a closer, and Shared Sense is the one I want. He seemed to take a step forward when getting up in that Oaklawn allowance back in February, and while he hasn’t won in two subsequent efforts, he’s earned slightly faster figures–he could easily take another step forward here third off the bench. The turf try wasn’t bad at all, and he did well to be second behind the buzzed-about Art Collector last time in a four-horse Churchill optional claimer. The winner set a slow pace and had things his own way, and Shared Sense caught GI Arkansas Derby third Finnick the Fierce for second. Nine furlongs seems well within Shared Sense’s scope. The grandson of MGISW Composure is out of a full-sister to GSW/MGISP Penwith and half to MGISP Centring. This is a true dirt route pedigree, and he’s bred exactly like Maxfield (Street Sense over Bernardini). Selection: #5 Shared Sense (4-1).

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Brisnet.com Triple Crown Throwdown: Ohio Derby

DeRosa – Belmont Stakes Result – Tiz the Law (+$325) proved too good for them. Bankroll: $3540.

GIII Ohio Derby – Awesome field lined up and no brainer to fade Storm the Court as ML favorite based on this year’s form. Hopefully last year’s champion Breeders’ Cup winner takes money though. On top it’s Sprawl for me. We won’t get 15-1 or even half that, but this colt is well meant for Mott and I think Paco is a good fit. Drew well and nine furlongs shouldn’t be an issue. Selection: #6 Sprawl (15-1).

Sherack – Belmont Stakes Result – Pneumatic got the right kind of trip, but ran out of gas once the real running began. Guess that’s why he was so chilly on the board. Bankroll: $2605.

GIII Ohio Derby – Sprawl won’t be anywhere near that 15-1 ML quote, but he should still offer nice value in this wide-open race. The well-bred son of City Zip from the family of Congrats, Flatter, et al, has taken a major step forward in his last two starts for Hall of Famer Bill Mott, turning in a huge third with a wide trip in a salty optional claimer at Gulfstream, then adding a first-level allowance in dominating fashion beneath the Twin Spires. Ready for a breakthrough performance. Selection: #6 Sprawl (15-1).

DiDonato – Belmont Stakes Result – Tiz the Law was too good, but landed on the right runner-up in Dr Post (+$290). The tri and super with suggested best alternatives didn’t pay too badly either. Bankroll: $3755.

GIII Ohio Derby – It feels like a thousand years ago at this point, but I remember sitting at the OTB in Hartford, CT on the Saturday after Thanksgiving with my dad and being impressed with Soros‘s win in the Smooth Air S. There were some other nice colts on that card, as Sole Volante and King Guillermo finished first and third, respectively, on the grass one race earlier. Eclipse bought into Soros off of that effort, but he finished off the board in his next two outings, including a sixth-place run last time in the Unbridled S. behind Dr Post. Pretty much everyone to run back from that race came back faster, so maybe that effort was stronger than it looks on paper, and he probably doesn’t want to be up on the pace like he was that day. This is a pretty aggressive spot considering his recent form, so he must be training well. He should get a set-up, and figures to appreciate the distance–his sire excelled at nine furlongs and farther. This is definitely a good spot to go longshot hunting. Selection: #11 Soros (15-1).

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