Improbable Provides Baffert With Back-to-Back Whitneys

‘TDN Rising Star’ Improbable (City Zip) scored back-to-back Grade I victories and provided his conditioner Bob Baffert with his second straight renewal of Saratoga’s prestigious GI Whitney S. Saturday with a dominant score in this ‘Win and You’re In’ event for the GI Breeders’ Cup Classic. Heavily Favored Tom’s d’Etat (Smart Strike) missed the break and was relegated to last early as native New Yorker Mr Buff (Friend or Foe) took command, loping through early splits of :25.12 and :49.74 with 3-1 shot Improbable keeping close tabs from second. Improbable seized command from Mr Buff as three-quarters went in 1:13.36 with MGSW By My Standards (Goldencents) charging up behind him. Improbable charged clear at the top of the lane and it was all over from there as the flashy chestnut rolled home to a two-length victory. By My Standards held on for second over Tom’s d’Etat. Last term’s GI Travers S. hero Code of Honor (Noble Mission {GB}) could only manage fourth over a tiring Mr Buff.

“He got up really quick and he put me in the race,” said winning pilot Irad Ortiz. “I just took a little hold because Mr Buff looked like the speed of the race. I put him in second in the clear, like we wanted and went from there. He was comfortable. By the backside, we felt pressure but by his own he started picking it up. I let him do his thing because they were going really slow so I let him go early. When I asked him turning for home, he responded really well.

“Big race. Big race,” said co-owner WinStar Farm’s Elliott Walden. “Obviously, we had to get over the gate [issues] a little bit and Irad and the gate crew did a wonderful job. He broke great, Irad had him in a super position and felt great all the way around there. Bob [Baffert] had him ready to go, as usual, when he comes east. When he got in the position that we had hoped for, which was kind of tracking Mr. Buff, we felt really good. Then they throw up kind of easy fractions. But, he’s just a different horse this year. That’s his second Grade I in a row. He got beat by Tom’s d’Etat in his first start at Oaklawn, but he’s set up for a big year and we’re just excited to continue that.”

As for the beaten favorite, Tom d’Etat, jockey Joel Rosario said, “He stumbled coming out. There was a lot going on. He was standing fine, he just missed the break. It changed my plan because I had to really get riding from there. I couldn’t take my time. I thought the pace was fine. Even after that, I was not too far from the lead. It looked like I was in a good spot. But stumbling coming out of the gate, I lost ground right away.”

A perfect three-for-three as a juvenile, including his first top level success in the GI Los Alamitos Futurity, Improbable faced his first defeat when second in last term’s GII Rebel S. and filled the same spot behind Omaha Beach (War Front) in the GI Arkansas Derby last term. Fifth, but promoted to fourth in the GI Kentucky Derby, the $200,000 KEESEP buy finished sixth in last year’s GI Preakness S., after which he was given a brief freshening. Making a successful comeback in the Shared Belief S. at Del Mar, he was fourth in the GI Pennsylvania Derby in September and could only manage fifth in the GI Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile Nov. 2. Coming up just 3/4 of a length short of Tom’s d’Etat in the Oaklawn Mile Apr. 11, Improbable flashed signs of his impressive juvenile form when running off to a 3 1/4-length success in the GI Hollywood Gold Cup S. going 10 panels in Arcadia June 6.

Pedigree Notes:

Improbable is one of 10 Grade I winners, 30 graded winners and 87 stakes winners for his late sire City Zip. He is also one of 26 top-level scorers, 103 graded victors and 221 stakes winners produced by a daughter of A.P. Indy. Improbable is the first foal to race out of Rare Event, whose -year-old filly Redemption Day (Quality Road), a $180,000 KEESEP purchase by WinStar, broke her maiden July 9 and finished second last time July 30. The 11-year-old mare is also the dam of juvenile colt Snake Doctor

Saturday, Saratoga Racecourse
WHITNEY S.-GI, $695,000, Saratoga, 8-1, 4yo/up, 1 1/8m, 1:48.65, ft.
1–IMPROBABLE, 124, c, 4, by City Zip
                1st Dam: Rare Event, by A.P. Indy
                2nd Dam: Our Rite of Spring, by Stravinsky
                3rd Dam: Turkish Tryst, by Turkoman
‘TDN Rising Star’ ($110,000 Wlg ’16 KEENOV; $200,000 Ylg ’17
KEESEP). O-WinStar Farm LLC, CHC Inc. and SF Racing LLC; B-St.
George Farm LLC & G. Watts Humphrey Jr. (KY); T-Bob Baffert;
J-Irad Ortiz, Jr. $400,000. Lifetime Record: 13-6-3-0,
$1,529,520. Click for eNicks report & 5-cross pedigree. Werk
   Nick Rating: A.
2–By My Standards, 122, c, 4, Goldencents–A Jealous Woman,
by Muqtarib. ($150,000 2yo ’18 OBSAPR). O-Allied Racing
Stable, LLC; B-Don Ladd (KY); T-W. Bret Calhoun. $140,000.
3–Tom’s d’Etat, 124, h, 7, Smart Strike–Julia Tuttle, by Giant’s
Causeway. ($330,000 Ylg ’14 KEESEP). O-G M B Racing; B-SF
Bloodstock LLC (KY); T-Albert M. Stall, Jr. $75,000.
Margins: 2, HF, 2HF. Odds: 3.25, 5.60, 1.00.
Also Ran: Code of Honor, Mr. Buff. Click for the Equibase.com chart, the TJCIS.com PPs or the free Equineline.com catalogue-style pedigree. VIDEO, sponsored by Fasig-Tipton.

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Chester Thomas Looking Forward To By My Standards’ Rematch With Tom’s D’Etat In Whitney

Allied Racing Stables' Chester Thomas will celebrate his first starter at Saratoga Race Course when By My Standards bursts from the gate as one of five millionaires in Saturday's Grade 1, $750,000 Whitney, a 1 1/8-mile test for 4-year-olds and upward.

Whitney Day will feature three Grade 1 events, led by the historic Whitney, with an automatic berth to the Breeders' Cup Classic on November 7 at Keeneland on the line. The card is bolstered by the Grade 1, $500,000 Personal Ensign presented by NYRA Bets, a “Win and You're In” qualifier for the Breeders' Cup Distaff in November; and the Grade 1, $300,000 H. Allen Jerkens Memorial presented by Runhappy for 3-year-olds sprinting seven furlongs. The stakes-laden card also includes the Grade 2, $250,000 Bowling Green for 4-year-olds and up on the turf and the $200,000 Caress, a 5 ½-furlong turf sprint for older fillies and mares. The card will be broadcast on Saratoga Live beginning at 1 p.m. Eastern on FOX Sports and MSG Networks.

Trained by Bret Calhoun, the son of leading third-crop sire Goldencents has already given Thomas a couple of “firsts” in providing the Kentucky native with a first graded stakes win in the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby last March at Fair Grounds, which propelled him to the Grade 1 Kentucky Derby – Thomas' first starter in the 'Run for the Roses' – where he was elevated to 11th.

By My Standards arrives at the Whitney off a runner-up effort to Toms d'Etat, the Whitney's 6-5 morning line favorite, in the Grade 2 Stephen Foster on June 27 at Churchill Downs where he tracked the pace but was unable to catch the leader, who set a tepid pace under Miguel Mena.

“Our horse came out of the race very well,” Thomas said. “He kept his weight up and we're competitive and we like to win, but these races aren't easy. Toms d'Etat ran a huge race at Churchill. I give Miguel Mena a lot of credit, he took control of the race right out of the gate. The fractions were fairly slow at the beginning, and you aren't chasing a horse like that down with those kinds of fractions. Coming in second is not bad, so we're looking forward to trying again.”

Following the Kentucky Derby, By My Standards received a freshening but returned with a six-length optional claiming victory at Fair Grounds which he followed up with Grade 2 scores in the New Orleans Classic and Oaklawn Handicap.

“He's by far better than he was last year. He was coming into himself very well,” Thomas said. “The Louisiana Derby shocked everybody, and we thought he had a real shot in the race back then. The Derby was hard on him and we gave him all the time off he needed. He got his foot issues squared away and Bret has been meticulous with everything he's done.”

By My Standards defeated eight graded stakes winners, including subsequent Grade 2 Suburban victor Tacitus in the Oaklawn Handicap, registering a 102 Beyer Speed Figure.

“The races haven't gotten any easier, especially the Oaklawn Handicap. That was a stacked race,” said Thomas. “We're excited to be a part of it and hopefully we can get our first Saratoga win.”

Thomas, who also owns multiple graded stakes winner Mr. Money and stakes winner Mr. Big News with Calhoun, said he hopes for another strong race on Saturday from By My Standards.

“Bret has done just a beautiful job. The horse has come back and is doing really well,” Thomas said. “No doubt this is a very tough race even with only five horses. They're all very, very good horses. Code of Honor is clearly a super horse. Toms d'Etat is a super horse, so it's going to take a super horse to win that race Saturday.”

Thomas could double up his Saratoga starters with Mr. Big News, who is a possibility for the $500,000 Saratoga Derby, part of the Turf Triple Series for 3-year-olds at 1 3/16-miles on August 15.

“His pedigree screams turf,” Thomas said of the sophomore son of Giant's Causeway, who won the Oaklawn Stakes two starts back. “In the Blue Grass, he stumbled out of the gate and the track was speed-biased. It might be a good time to look at turf racing with him.”

Bred in Kentucky by Don Alberto Corporation, Mr. Big News is out of the Galileo mare Unappeased, who is a half to multiple graded stakes winner on grass Sligo Bay.

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Tom’s D’Etat, Code Of Honor To Clash In Five-Horse Whitney

A field comprised of five millionaires will make up a talented group of older horses assembled for the 93rd running of Saturday's Grade 1, $750,000 Whitney going 1 1/8 miles at Saratoga Race Course.

Whitney Day will feature three Grade 1 events, led by the historic Whitney, with an automatic berth to the Breeders' Cup Classic on November 7 at Keeneland on the line. The card is bolstered by the Grade 1, $500,000 Personal Ensign presented by NYRA Bets, a “Win and You're In” qualifier for the Breeders' Cup Distaff in November; and the Grade 1, $300,000 H. Allen Jerkens Memorial presented by Runhappy for 3-year-olds sprinting seven furlongs. The stakes-laden card also includes the Grade 2, $250,000 Bowling Green for 4-year-olds and up on the turf and the $200,000 Caress, a 5 ½-furlong turf sprint for older fillies and mares. The card will be broadcast on Saratoga Live beginning at 1 p.m. Eastern on FOX Sports and MSG Networks.

The Whitney pays homage to one of the Spa's most influential families, who for generations have had a profound effect on horse racing in upstate New York. The prominent Whitney family's involvement in thoroughbred racing began with Jockey Club co-founder William Collins Whitney, who began owning thoroughbreds in 1898. His son Harry Payne Whitney campaigned horses under the moniker of Greentree Stables, who hold the record for most victories in the family's namesake race with six winners. Horses owned by members of the Whitney family have gone on to win every major horse race in North America, including all three American Classics.

This year's edition of the Whitney will feature W.S. Farish's two-time Grade 1-winner Code of Honor, who arrives off a late-closing third in the Grade 1 Runhappy Met Mile, where the 4-year-old chestnut son of Noble Mission settled at the rear of the field off a leisurely pace, went five wide around the turn and closed to finish 1 ½ lengths to frontrunning winner Vekoma.

Last year, Code of Honor captured four graded stakes victories, including triumphs in the Grade 1 Runhappy Travers en route to a win in the Grade 1 Jockey Club Gold Cup at Belmont Park.

Code of Honor, trained by Hall of Famer and three-time Whitney-winner Shug McGaughey, will attempt to become the first horse to capture the Travers, Jockey Club Gold Cup and Whitney in a career since Easy Goer. The Hall of Fame horse, who was also conditioned by McGaughey, accomplished the feat in one calendar year in 1989.

McGaughey said Code of Honor has proven capable of winning at one turn, but the horse is more suited for two turns.

“Two turns going a mile and an eighth is what he wants to do,” said McGaughey, whose other Whitney victors include champions Personal Ensign (1988) and Honor Code (2015). “I do think that last year, the [Grade 3] Dwyer [going one turn at Belmont Park] was one of his better races. But now that he's gotten older, and gotten stretched out, two turns going a mile and an eighth to a mile and a quarter is where he'll run his better races.”

Prior to the Runhappy Met Mile, Code of Honor made his seasonal bow a winning one, when taking the Grade 3 Westchester on June 6 at Belmont Park by a half-length.

With an overall record of 12-6-2-2, Code of Honor brags the highest earnings in the field with $2,473,320.

Code of Honor will attempt to maintain an unbeaten record at Saratoga. A year prior to winning the Runhappy Travers, he was a gate-to-wire maiden winner at the Spa during his 2-year-old campaign.

“He's always liked it up here and liked training over the track. But it's a different main track up here now than it was in the Travers. How much different, I'm not sure,” said McGaughey. “I think that Code of Honor has always liked it up here. He trained well here as a 2-year-old and ran well. He trained well here as a 3-year-old and ran well. He's been training well since we've come up here this year, so hopefully he runs well again.”

Breaking from post 3, Code of Honor will be ridden by jockey John Velazquez, who will attempt to tie fellow Hall of Famers Pat Day and Jerry Bailey with the most wins in the race with five.

Trainer Al Stall, Jr. saddled subsequent Breeders' Cup Classic winner and Champion Older Horse Blame to victory in the 2010 Whitney off a four-race win streak. This year, the conditioner sends out red-hot Tom's d'Etat, who also arrives at the race off similar form with four straight wins.

Owned by Gayle Benson's G M B Racing, the 7-year-old son of Smart Strike enters the Whitney off graded stakes triumphs in the Grade 2 Fayette on October 26 at Keeneland, the Grade 1 Clark on November 29 at Churchill Downs and the Grade 2 Stephen Foster on June 27 at Churchill Downs.

Coincidentally, these were three of the same four races that Blame had won heading into his Whitney victory.

“There's no substitute for class and they both have it,” Stall, Jr. said. “He's a very classy horse. He's very laid back, easy to deal with, and easy to ride in the mornings.”

Tom's d'Etat leads all Whitney entrants with three victories at the Spa. As a 3-year-old, he broke his maiden at third asking by four lengths and won an allowance optional claiming event by nine lengths the following year. Last season, he was a one-length winner of the Alydar.

Additionally, Tom's d'Etat also boasts the most wins at the distance, having won six times going nine furlongs, three of which were at the Spa.

“Some horses just take to it,” Stall, Jr. said. “I can tell in the couple weeks he's been here, his hair is great and his eye is just what you want and it seems like he knows just where he is. He's been here at 3, 4 and 6. He took off just one year and this will be his fourth year here and he seems to know his way around.”

His only defeat at Saratoga was in last year's Grade 1 Woodward, where he was a close but troubled fourth finishing 1 ¾ lengths to Preservationist.

“We had an awful trip in that race, but he fired his best shot that day,” Stall Jr. said.

At the ripe age of 7, Stall, Jr. said Tom's d'Etat is better than ever.

“We see no signs of him going the other direction on us, especially from a mental standpoint,” Stall, Jr said. “He's one of the last great progenies of Smart Strike. We just feel fortunate to be in this situation all the way around. To be in this spot, to run in these types of races, run in these Grade 1s and more importantly, we're happy that he has a super nice place to go to when his racing career is over [WinStar Farm].”

Bred in Kentucky by SF Bloodstock, Tom's d'Etat is out the Giant's Causeway broodmare Julia Tuttle whose dam Candy Cane is a full sister to undefeated Grade 1 winner and multiple champion-producing sire Candy Ride.

Tom's d'Etat has never lost in five starts with jockey Joel Rosario aboard and will attempt to keep an unscathed record intact from post 5 as the 6-5 morning line favorite.

Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert will saddle Improbable in attempt to be the first trainer to notch back-to-back wins in the Whitney since Scotty Schulhofer with Colonial Affair and Unaccounted For in 1994-95.

Owned by WinStar Farm, China Horse Club and SF Racing, the 4-year-old City Zip chestnut won the Grade 1 Hollywood Gold Cup at Santa Anita last out by 3 ¼ lengths, producing a career-best 105 Beyer.

“He's doing really well,” said Baffert, who won last year's Whitney with McKinzie. “I think he's a much bigger and stronger horse than last year.”

Jockey Irad Ortiz, Jr., who was aboard 2018 Whitney winner Diversify, will pilot Improbable from post 2.

Allied Racing Stable's By My Standards will attempt to turn the tables on Tom's d'Etat after finishing second in the Stephen Foster.

Trained by Bret Calhoun, the three-time graded stakes winning son of Goldencents began his 2020 campaign with three victories, including Grade 2 scores in the New Orleans Classic at Fair Grounds and Oaklawn Handicap, en route to the Stephen Foster.

During his sophomore campaign, By My Standards won the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby At Fair Grounds before a twelfth-place finish in the Grade 1 Kentucky Derby – his only off-the-board finish in ten starts.

“He's a good-minded horse and does everything the right way. He's a very smart horse and he's proved that he'll handle [shipping in], so we're confident sending him up there,” Calhoun said. “Tom's d'Etat beat us last time with a great race, and we have the utmost respect for him and Code of Honor and all of them in there. But we think our horse is improving and we're hoping Whitney Day will be the day he brings his best.”

All three of By My Standards' graded stakes wins were at the nine-furlong distance.

“That's another key. With a Grade 1, and a mile-and-an-eighth, and how he's training; they are all reasons why we're coming,” Calhoun said.

By My Standards will exit from post 1 under Jose Ortiz.

Rounding out the field is Chester and May Broman's eight-time stakes-winning New York-bred millionaire Mr. Buff, who attempts his first graded stakes victory for trainer John Kimmel.

Likely to show early speed, Mr. Buff will be looking for his first win since a runaway 20-length score in the Haynesfield on February 22 at Aqueduct.

“We know this place has been known as the “Graveyard of Favorites,” but Mr. Buff is stepping into some deep water in this race,” Kimmel said. “People might look at his last race and just kind of think that he's a little bit off form. But this horse has run commensurate numbers with all the horses in this race when he's been running against New York-bred company. People obviously think he can't do it against open company.”

Mr. Buff arrives at the Whitney off a distant fifth in the Grade 2 Suburban on July 4 at Belmont Park.

“This horse in his last race actually had a little bone bruise in his foot,” Kimmel said. “We went into it thinking he was OK, but I definitely think it bothered him. The blacksmith after that race cut out a little area and he had a little area of blood and some damage and since we have re-shod him, he has been a very happy horse here. He's had two very nice breezes over the racetrack.”

Mr. Buff will leave from post 4 under jockey Junior Alvarado, who was the pilot aboard 2014 Whitney winner Moreno.

The Whitney, one of the most important races in the North American handicap division, has been won by subsequent Champion Older Horses Gun Runner (2017), Honor Code (2015), Blame (2010), Lawyer Ron (2007), Invasor (2006), Left Bank (2002), Lemon Drop Kid (2000), Victory Gallop (1999), Criminal Type (1990) and Slew o' Gold (1984). Prominent Whitney victors during the early years of the race include all-time greats Equipoise (1932), Discovery (1934-36), War Admiral (1938), Stymie (1946), Tom Fool (1953), Carry Back (1962), Kelso (1961, 1963, 1965), Dr. Fager (1968) and Alydar (1978).

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Baffert Doesn’t Like Inside Post, Will Scratch McKinzie From Saturday’s Bing Crosby

McKinzie will not run in this Saturday's Grade 1 Bing Crosby Stakes at Del Mar, trainer Bob Baffert told the Daily Racing Form on Wednesday. The 5-year-old son of Street Sense drew post four of ten in the six-furlong sprint contest, and Baffert doesn't believe the horse will be able to make his best effort from that spot.

“If I had an outside post, I was going to take a chance at it,” Baffert told drf.com. “But he's down in the four-hole, and this track's been playing weird. It's real loose and deep. A horse like him wouldn't have a chance.”

Instead, Baffert plans to wait for the G2 Pat O'Brien over seven furlongs on Aug. 29. Though the “Win and You're In” race offers a berth to the Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile, Baffert's long-term goal for McKinzie is still the Breeders' Cup Classic over 1 1/4 miles.

Read more at the Daily Racing Form.

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