Does Cezanne Justify The Hype Of Previous Baffert Stars?

Cezanne, who topped Fasig-Tipton's sale of two-year-olds in training last year at Gulfstream Park when he fetched a final bid of $3.65 million, kicked off his racing career with a 2 1/2-length victory in a 6 1/2-furlong maiden race last Saturday at Santa Anita in Arcadia, Calif.

Cezanne was sent away as an overwhelming 2-5 favorite and posted a final time of 1:16.13. Leading jockey Flavian Prat rode the Kentucky-bred three-year-old colt by two-time Horse of the Year Curlin.

Bob Baffert trains Cezanne for owners Mrs. John Magnier, Michael Tabor, Michael B. Smith and St. Elias Stable.

“Cezanne was credited with a 90 Beyer Speed Figure,” said Jon White, Santa Anita's longtime morning-line oddsmaker. “Considering he was making his career debut as a three-year-old, I wondered how a 90 Beyer stacks up against the debut Beyers for Arrogate, West Coast and Justify. They also debuted at the age of three for Baffert.

And they all went on to be voted an Eclipse Award that same year as the champion three-year-old male (Arrogate in 2016, West Coast in 2017 and Justify in 2018).

“Because there had been so much hype for Cezanne's debut, some probably expected to see him win by a bigger margin and get a higher Beyer. But a 90 is a lot higher than Arrogate's 80 Beyer in his career debut. And keep in mind that after Arrogate's debut, what he did later that year was extraordinary.”

In the first start of Arrogate's career, he finished third in a six-furlong maiden race at Los Alamitos on April 17, 2016. Later in the year he won the Travers by 13 ½ lengths while breaking Saratoga's track record for 1 ¼ miles.

In his final start at three, Arrogate won the Breeders' Cup Classic at Santa Anita beating California Chrome and other older horses.

“What Cezanne's 90 Beyer is comparable to was West Coast's figure in the first start of his career when he got a 91,” White noted.

West Coast began his career by finishing second in a one-mile maiden race at Santa Anita on Feb. 18, 2017. Later in the year he won the Travers and the Pennsylvania Derby before finishing third in the Breeders' Cup Classic at Del Mar.

“Justify's debut Beyer went through the roof, a 104, when he won his first race by a huge margin,” White said. “That really was some performance. Justify showed everyone right from the start what an outstanding equine athlete he was.”

Bursting on the scene early in 2018 at Santa Anita, Justify registered a 9 1/2-length victory in a seven-furlong maiden race on Feb. 18. He subsequently won the Santa Anita Derby and swept the Triple Crown, then was retired after the Belmont Stakes. Justify won all six of his career starts.

“Cezanne raced a bit greenly in his first start and should improve with that race under his belt,” White said. “I also think there's a good chance that he will do well when he goes farther. Baffert has said that he believes Cezanne has the potential to have a big second half of the year like Arrogate and West Coast.

“So it's sure going to be interesting to see what Cezanne can do during the rest of the year.”

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