Equibase Analysis: Majestic Dunhill Vs. Phat Man In Bold Ruler

A strong field of six sprinters takes to the track in the Grade 3, $100,000 Bold Ruler Handicap at Belmont Park on Saturday, Oct. 31.

Majestic Dunhill and Phat Man lead the field in terms of top efforts in these types of races. Majestic Dunhill won the City of Laurel Stakes earlier in his career before a runner-up effort in the G3 General George and most recently missed by a head at the distance at Belmont in preparation for this race. Phat Man, who returns from an eight month rest, leads the field in earnings, having banked more than a half-million, and won the G3 Fred W. Hooper Stakes in January.

Arch Cat has won 13 career races, the most in the field, and was competitive at the level last fall when second in the Dave's Friend Stakes. Share the Ride won the Mr. Prospector Stakes last month and appears to fit nicely with these. Mihos won the Mucho Macho Man Stakes in January 2019 but his only win since then came in April, and he was beaten nearly two lengths last month when third behind Majestic Dunhill. Wendell Fong won three of his first four races including the Gold Fever Stakes in May, 2019, but is winless in six races since then.

Majestic Dunhill gets preference over Phat Man as the one to beat in this year's Bold Ruler Handicap because he has won once at this seven furlong trip and been in the top three five times while Phat Man is trying the distance for the first time. Majestic Dunhill made his 2020 debut in April and finished third, then was entered in the G1 Carter Handicap in June but was scratched in favor of the First Defence Stakes the following day. Rallying strongly from sixth in a 13 horse field, Majestic Dunhill nearly posted the 11 to 1 upset in that race, earning a career-best 110 Equibase Speed Figure in the process, before two poorer efforts. However, Majestic Dunhill returned to strong competitive form last month when leading late and beaten a neck on the wire in a race at this distance at Belmont which appears to set him up for a top effort in the Bold Ruler.

Phat Man hasn't been seen since February but has run well of layoffs, as when second in December of last year and second last August. Since adding blinkers in the summer of 2019, Phat Man has won or placed in four of five races. The last two before the layoff were the best of his career, first winning the Fred W. Hooper Stakes then when second in the Gulfstream Park Mile. Both efforts earned the same 110 figures Majestic Dunhill earned in his best effort. With a series of strong workouts in the morning for his return to the races, Phat Man could easily pick up where he left off in the winter and be a force to reckon with in this race.

Arch Cat won three of four races this year but was disqualified from one of them. He won six of 15 last year and in seven of his last eight races earned figures from 101 to 108 so it appears he could be competitive with the main contenders here. His win in August was at this seven furlong distance and trainer Velazquez doesn't ship often from his base in Delaware but has won two of three at Belmont this year. Jockey Kendrick Carmouche rode Arch Cat to victory the last three times he was in the saddle and given the right scenario, Arch Cat could be capable of posting the mild upset in the Bold Ruler.

The rest of the field, with their best Equibase Speed Figures, is Mihos (102), Share the Ride (108) and Wendell Fong (108).

Win Contenders:
Majestic Dunhill
Phat Man
Arch Cat

Bold Ruler Handicap – Grade 3
Race 9 at Belmont Park
Saturday, October 31 – Post Time 4:57 PM E.T.
Seven Furlongs
Three Year Olds and Upward
Purse: $100,000

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