Tag: All-Value Sire Team

So, we're here. Now what?

We spend so much time in anticipation with stallions. We wait for them to cover their first mares, then we wait for their first foals to arrive, then we wait for them to sell, then we wait for them to breeze, and after a few years, we wait for them to race. Finally, we wait for enough of them to race and sell that we can come up with a verdict on whether the stallion was worth waiting for in the first place.

Some of the stallions we'll look at in this closing edition of the All-Value Sire Team are in the final stages of that process, which can be a precarious spot in this price bracket. If a stallion has made it far enough to solidify his resume and he's still at the farm where he entered stud, the ideal scenario would see him standing for more than $20,000.

International competition and bankrolls for North American stallions are arguably at an all-time high, and patience for anything less than a star player is arguably as low on the other end of the spectrum. We've seen a lot of stallions that could have had perfectly fine long-term careers in Kentucky, and were covering solid-sized books of mares, get sold overseas or to a regional market. My guess is there's more money in selling high on a middle-tier stallion with some blue sky left on his scouting report, than trying to find a buyer on a proven loser that stuck around too long.

This is all to say, the margin of error for a young stallion standing for $20,000 or less in Kentucky can be razor-thin, but there are also plenty of niches to be carved out. We've covered several veteran sires in the All-Value Sire Team who have spent significant portions of their careers in this price bracket and in turn became some of the most reliable options at any price level.

The sires we'll look at today appear well on their way to joining those ranks, and perhaps even climbing out of the value sire price bracket with a few star runners.

To view who else has made the 2023-24 All-Value Sire Team so far, click here.

To view the extensive chart I've used to track 159 value sires by 51 different statistical categories to aid in my decision-making process, sign up for our Patreon. 

Let's bring it home…

The Future Star: A stallion with two to four crops of racing age in 2024.

First Team: Mitole

B. h., 2015, Eskendereya x Indian Miss, by Indian Charlie

Standing at Spendthrift Farm, KY, $15,000

We're still waiting for a few late-arriving returns to make it official, but it seems pretty safe to call the freshman sire race in favor of Mitole by both winners and earnings, edging out fellow Spendthrift Farm residents Maximus Mischief, Vino Rosso, and Omaha Beach.

Of that Spendthrift quartet, Mitole is the only one that will be standing for less than $20,000 in 2024. If you believe in taking advantage of soft spots in the market, have I got a horse for you.

Looking beyond the freshman sire race, though, Mitole has done a stellar job settling in among the young veteran sires. His runners are winning 17 percent of their races, which puts him just behind the very top of the qualifying horses in this position. His sample size is admittedly skewed, with only one crop of 2-year-olds, but that early win percentage ranks Mitole higher than the likes of Tapit (15 percent), Curlin and War Front (16 percent) and it ties him with Gun Runner and flagship Spendthrift resident Into Mischief. Most of Mitole's freshman contemporaries can't touch those numbers, even at this early stage in the game.

Though Mitole was himself an Eclipse Award-winning sprinter, his runners have shown a fair bit of versatility. His best runner, V V's Dream, is a Grade 3 winner at a mile and she's Grade 1-placed at 1 1/16 miles. Indiana stakes winner Ice Cold also got the job done at the route distance, while three of his four stakes-placed runners have earned their black type around one turn.

Buyers seem to have gotten the memo about Mitole as well, bumping his median yearling sale price up from $27,500 in 2022 to $32,500 this year. His yearling returns were even more dramatic, rising from a median of $42,000 to $70,000; well above his lifetime weanling median of $50,000. It wouldn't surprise me to see Mitole's yearling price rocket up in 2024, and these early mixed sale returns suggest the weanling-to-yearling pinhook market could propel that momentum.

Looking even deeper into the future, Mitole's pipeline is packed, with 383 registered weanlings, yearlings, and 2-year-olds – by far the most of any North American stallion standing for $20,000 or less in 2024. The next closest is fellow Spendthrift resident Goldencents at 344. A deep bench is never a guarantee of on-track success or that a stallion will stick around in Kentucky for the long-term, but seeing that level of breeder support without a major swoon certainly implies that he'll have every chance to stick around.

When I think about Mitole's pedigree, “champion sprinter” isn't necessarily the first thing that comes to mind. His sire Eskendereya and broodmare sire Indian Charlie were both known for getting two-turn horses with tons of length, and Indian Charlie added bulk to that equation.

Mitole got that combination in some unique ways. He's not overly tall at 16.1 hands, but he's proportioned well enough that he still has a good deal of scope. However, the Indian Charlie power is definitely there, especially in the hindquarters, bolstered by the specters of Giant's Causeway and Storm Cat in his male line. With a tidy frame, a sprinter's resume and a router's pedigree, I'll be interested to see how his debut crop fares stretching their legs as they begin to tackle more two-turn races.

Winning the freshman sire title often comes down to finding several different ways to win races. Mitole has shown he can offer that to breeders.

Second Team: Connect

Dk. b. or br. h., 2013, Curlin x Bullville Belle, by Holy Bull

Standing at Lane's End, KY, $15,000

Sons of Curlin are all the rage at stud right now, and rightfully so. The man himself is still lighting the world on fire, and his sons have proven plenty capable of carrying on his legacy.

Though he might not have been as flashy as his Derby-siring contemporary Good Magic in 2023, Connect has set a foothold as an incredibly reliable sire capable of getting runners to the biggest stages. His nine stakes winners in 2023 is among the best among North American sires standing for $20,000 or less, and his 5.1 percent stakes winners from starters this year was the best in that category among those with over 100 runners.

The Connects are showing they're able to hang on to their form, which is promising to see. Rattle N Roll and Hidden Connection were two of the sire's biggest names during his freshman season in 2021, and both horses won stakes races in 2023 at age four. He also had The Alys Look finish third in this year's Kentucky Oaks, further displaying that Connect can take you to the top races on the calendar.

Connect also got 32 percent winners over the turf in 2023, which is second only to Airdrie Stud's Summer Front among significant North American stallions in this price bracket. Leading the way among his turf runners was Implicated, the winner of G3 Pebbles Stakes in November at Aqueduct.

The Regional Star: A stallion of any age or surface preference who stands outside of Kentucky.

First Team: Honest Mischief

B. h., 2016, Into Mischief x Honest Lady, by Seattle Slew

Standing at Sequel New York, NY, $6,500

Stop me if you've heard this one before: Into Mischief is white-hot, and breeders are flocking to his bloodline practically wherever it's available.

As the only local option for New York breeders to access a son of Into Mischief, Honest Mischief has been very busy in the breeding shed, and his foals have been even busier in the sales ring.

He was the star of this summer's Fasig-Tipton New York-Bred Yearling Sale, where his five yearlings sold for $100,000 or more was the most by a debuting New York sire at the auction in recent memory – and by a wide margin. The last New York sire to even get multiple six-figure yearlings in that sale from his first crop was Dublin in 2014, when he got three.

Of course, it's always a gamble placing a stallion this high without a single runner to his name. There are plenty of proven stallions in New York and beyond putting out incredible numbers who have a credible claim to a place on the All-Value Sire Team.

What makes me confident that Honest Mischief will follow through on the promise of his early sale performance has to do with his pedigree, his surroundings, and his pipeline.

Honest Mischief comes from an incredibly productive branch of the Juddmonte Farms breeding program. He's a half-brother to the Grade 1 winner and nice sire First Defence, his dam is a Grade 1 winner, and his second dam is the great Toussaud, putting him in the same orbit as Empire Maker and Chester House. Pair that with the hottest sire of sires in the land in Into Mischief and you've got a stallion's pedigree top-to-bottom.

The New York-bred program is one of the most lucrative in the country, and a good runner can make a stallion look very good in the standings. There are a lot of very good stallions in New York, but there is definitely room at the top for a stallion to come in and dominate those rankings. I expect the Honest Mischiefs will get their fair shake to make noise in the state-bred 2-year-old races in Saratoga and beyond.

Finally, breeders seem to truly believe in him. He's got 117 combined registered weanlings and yearlings, and I expect that number to go up as more breeders register their young foals. With just two crops, he's doing better than a lot of regional sires who count weanlings, yearlings, and 2-year-olds in their pipelines. Succeeding at stud can be a battle of attrition, and Honest Mischief will have a lot of troops to throw at the freshman sire race. If they succeed, Honest Mischief's job will become much easier.

Honest Mischief has a lot of momentum going in his favor. As a major consignor of 2-year-olds, I expect Sequel will have plenty of his foals loaded and ready for the 2-year-old sale season, and if they wow at the breeze shows and land in the right hands, he could end up being the heir to Freud's crown as the king of New York.

Second Team: Khozan

Dk. b. or br. h., 2012, Distorted Humor x Delta Princess, by A.P. Indy

Standing at Journeyman Stallions, FL, $6,500

Speaking of kings of states, the championship belt among Florida sires goes through Khozan, and it has been that way for a long time.

The perennial leading Sunshine State sire gets wins at a 16 percent clip from total progeny starts, which is upper-echelon for all value sires, not just regional ones. His four percent stakes winners from total horses of racing age is also above average among value sires, as well.

Kohzan is the highest-ranking member of the 2023 general sire list by earnings, among horses standing outside of Kentucky. What makes Khozan stand out is that his foals were not restricted to just winning inside the Florida state lines. This year saw Foggy Night take the G3 Delaware Oaks and the Cathryn Sophia Stakes in the Mid-Atlantic, while Me and Mr. C took multiple stakes races in Kentucky and the Midwest.

However, for owners that elect to keep their Khozan runners at Gulfstream Park and Tampa Bay Downs, they can look at horses like stakes winners Shaq Diesel, Squints, and R Harper Rose for inspiration.

Florida breeders can't get enough of the guy, either. Khozan's pipeline of 214 juveniles, yearlings, and weanlings is by farm the most for any sire standing outside of Kentucky, and it eclipses a lot of horses standing in the Bluegrass State. It's doubtful he'll be hurting for support anytime soon, and as long as he keeps producing on the racetrack, end-users should continue to clamor for them.

The post The 2023-24 All-Value Sire Team Presented By Pedigrees 360: The Future Star And The Regional Sire appeared first on Horse Racing News | Paulick Report.

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Few positions in the horse racing industry are under more pressure than a foal from the first crop of a commercial sire.

From the womb, every aspect of their value and ability is measured to exhaustion in an attempt to deduce whether their sire stacks up within their own hierarchy of rookies, and how they'll project into future seasons. Buyers work themselves into a frenzy trying to secure first-croppers during their pioneering trips through each auction season, and most of those sires and their foals will never see prices as lofty again.

Potential is an incredible marketing tool, and until their foals reach racing age and remove the veil on what they can really do, the two classes of sires we'll look at this week are built almost entirely on foundations of potential.

There are plenty of semi-reliable indicators of future success at stud – race record, conformation, pedigree, early reviews and returns on first foals – but the truth is, we're all flying blind until the racetrack proves them out, and even that doesn't always determine a sire's final destination.

This can be a risky time for breeders to dive in on a stallion, but the reward can be great, too. If a stallion flops early, those follow-up breeders are stuck holding the bag on a young horse whose commercial value has deflated like a balloon. If he's a hit, though, those believers during the lean years are in the right place at the right time with coveted names in the catalog when demand becomes sky-high. Fortune favors the bold.

To view who else has made the 2023-24 All-Value Sire Team so far, click here.

To view the extensive chart I've used to track 159 value sires by 51 different statistical categories to aid in my decision-making process, sign up for our Patreon. 

And now, without further ado…

The Freshman: A freshman sire of 2-year-olds in 2024.

First Team: Volatile

Gr. or ro. h., 2016, Violence x Melody Lady, by Unbridled's Song
Standing at Three Chimneys Farm, KY, $15,000

If a horse stands for under $20,000 in his debut year at stud and he gets a seven-figure yearling from his first crop, chances are good he'll have a spot waiting for him on the All-Value Sire Team at the end of the year. After finishing as the Second Team Sprinter on last year's team based on his weanlings alone, Volatile took it up a notch in 2023, and his placing reflects that.

Volatile became one of two rookie sires with a seven-figure offering at this year's Keeneland September Yearling Sale when Mike Rutherford went to $1.15 million for Hip 215, a filly out of Grade 1 winner Love and Pride whose third dam is 2006 Broodmare of the Year Cara Rafaela.

That was obviously a best-of-the-best-case scenario, but that filly was far from the only Volatile yearling that buyers and sale organizers coveted. His 2023 median yearling sale price of $72,000 was the highest of any North American stallion standing for $20,000 or less, and his four horses cataloged in Book 1 of this year's Keeneland September sale was the most of any first-crop stallion at the $20,000-and-below price level. Only three other rookie stallions had more entries in the elite Book 1 of the Keeneland September sale.

I've liked what I've seen from the Volatiles that I've inspected at the sales so far. Volatile is himself a little stockier and stronger than his pedigree would suggest (by the leggy Violence, out of an Unbridled's Song mare), and the best of his sons and daughters have inherited a lot of that body type.

The middle-book types got a little stretchier, but honestly, that might not be a bad thing. Volatile's family and his own race record are both sprint-heavy, so if a lighter frame can help his runners better get two turns and expand his repertoire, all the better.

It's fair to look at Volatile's race record and wonder if he can get his 2-year-olds out fast enough to have a say in the 2024 freshman sire race. He didn't begin his racing career until July of his 3-year-old season, and he didn't enter stakes company until the early summer of his 4-year-old campaign.

I'm not too concerned. His full-sister Buy Sell Hold won the Kentucky Juvenile Stakes, which is about as early on the 2-year-old stakes calendar as it gets. Dam Melody Lady was also a winner at two and she picked up a stakes victory in January of her 3-year-old season. Finally, Violence is the sire of Forte, the defending champion 2-year-old male.

Volatile is himself a solidly-built horse – not to the point of bulkiness, but he's got muscle to spare – and with that body type and sprinting style being passed on to his foals, I expect they'll be active and popular during the 2-year-old sales once they go under the stopwatch at the under-tack shows.

The pipeline is solid for Volatile, as well, with nearly 200 registered weanlings and yearlings. He also saw an increase of eight mares to his book in 2023, going up from 157 mares in 2022 to 165 this year.

The commercial market has set a high ceiling for a stallion standing for under $20,000, and while another seven-figure horse is probably to much to expect during the upcoming 2-year-old season, I expect Volatile's first juveniles to forge the path well. If they can even get close to keeping up with that pace once they hit the racetrack, Volatile's days as a horse eligible for the All-Value Sire Team might be numbered.

Second Team: Vekoma

Ch. h., 2016, Candy Ride x Mona de Momma, by Speightstown
Standing at Spendthrift Farm, KY, $15,000

Wherever Vekoma goes, the industry has followed. After being visited by a whopping 222 mares in his debut book, fourth-most in North America, Vekoma was in the upper tier of first-crop sires by both median weanling and yearling sale price. His yearling median of $60,000 was third-best among qualifying stallions in this particular division, and he had a colt finish with the second-highest price of the day during session five of this year's Keeneland September sale, hammering for $775,000.

In a business quick to drop stallions quickly for the next shiny new toy, breeders and buyers have stuck around for Vekoma. His pipeline is packed, with 340 combined registered yearlings and weanlings, and his book of mares in 2023 grew to 212, just missing his first year total. Very few sires accomplish that in the doldrum years.

His median weanling price held pretty steady, as well, with his second crop finishing at $52,500 after his first class brought a median of $75,000. Every meaningful commercial sire experienced a dropoff in median from their second-crop yearlings, but Vekoma absorbed the blow better than any of his contemporaries. In fact, his weanling median for 2023 was the highest of any horse in this category.

The freshman sire race can become a war of attrition, and the horse with the most bodies to throw at it is often in the driver's seat to compile the earnings necessary to finish high on the list. Vekoma has a lot of things going for him to be a top freshman sire in 2024, and people have already lined up to take advantage if he hits. If you believe in him, this might be one of your last chances to get him at this price.

The Prospect: A stallion whose first foals are weanlings or yearlings of 2024. He has foals on the ground (or will soon), but none yet of racing age.

First Team: Mandaloun

B. h., 2018, Into Mischief x Brooch, by Empire Maker
Standing at Juddmonte Farms, KY, $20,000

The market knows what it wants, and right now, that's Into Mischief or as close to him as it can get.

That point was driven home this spring when Mandaloun covered 211 mares, which was the 11th most in North America, and the most by a son of Into Mischief.

For the breeders who didn't get into that first book, Mandaloun was the leading first-year covering sire that qualified for this division with a median sale price of $65,000 from 15 mares sold. Topping that list was Mamie Van D, a Curlin mare from the family of Tapit, who hammered for $350,000.

So, what separates Mandaloun from the seemingly-required son of Into Mischief that stands at practically every major stud farm in Kentucky?

Let's start with what's similar. Looking at pictures of Mandaloun and Into Mischief side-to-side reveal two horses that look an awful lot alike. Both have athletic shoulders that stop short of the bulky muscling commonly seen from a Storm Cat-line stallion, but the topline leading into the rump is much more in line with the Storm Cat influence. I expect Mandaloun to fall even more in line with that silhouette as he continues to settle in to life at stud.

Both father and son have length in the neck and down the middle. However, that scope is also where the two start to differ.

Mandaloun has an extra dash of athleticism and scope that I think comes from the female family and broodmare sire Empire Maker. A Juddmonte homebred, Mandaloun has a lot of European influence on his page, starting with his dam Brooch, who was a multiple group stakes winner in Ireland.

The European background manifests itself most clearly, though, in Mandaloun's feet, which are solid and wide enough to suggest he could get you a decent turf horse to complement his Grade 1-winning dirt resume and the top side of his pedigree.

Mandaloun's most notable season on the racetrack obviously came at age three, and his best races were going long, but for breeders wondering if he can put a dent in the freshman sire race when that time comes, it's important to remember he went unbeaten as a 2-year-old. Though neither were stakes races, he beat some serious horses in those heats, including the likes of future Grade 1 winner Americanrevolution in his debut. Into Mischief's record as a sire of fast-starting sires speaks for itself, as well.

With such a big initial group of mares, Mandaloun is going to be given every chance to succeed with his freshman crop once those foals hit the ground. The competition for sons of Into Mischief at stud gets deeper with each passing year, but Mandaloun is well-positioned to land in the upper echelon.

Second Team: Speaker's Corner

B. h., 2018, Street Sense x Tyburn Brook, by Bernardini
Standing at Darley, KY, $17,500

Do you miss Bernardini? I know I do. Despite being a son of Street Sense, when I look at Speaker's Corner, I see his broodmare sire, the late Darley staple.

The shoulder on Speaker's Corner, the way he holds his head, and his topline all look consistent with Bernardini's type, by my eye. He's a much finer, racier model than Maxfield, a fellow son of Street Sense out of a Bernardini mare on the Darley roster, and I see that as a boon for Speaker's Corner, making him available to a wide variety of physical types.

Buyers seem to agree, so far. Speaker's Corner was second to Mandaloun among qualifying first-crop covering value sires by median mare sale price at $51,000. Darley doesn't tend to go crazy with stuffing their stallion's books, so an initial class of 149 mares should be plenty to launch his stud career.

I'll be interested to see where Speaker's Corner's type lands once his runners hit the track. Despite being by a two-turn sire in Street Sense, and out of a mare by the classic winner Bernardini, Speaker's Corner did his best work from seven furlongs to a mile. He has Grade 1 winners on the dirt on his page, along with winners of the French and Irish 2000 Guineas.

Speaker's Corner offers breeders a variety of options for mares to send that could end up working, and at a time when resumes are being built, having more irons in the fire is rarely a bad thing.

Come back next week for the final installment of the 2023-24 All-Value Sire Team, where we look at value stallions about to hit the prime of their careers, and regional standouts.

The post The 2023-24 All-Value Sire Team Presented By Pedigrees360: The Freshman And The Prospect appeared first on Horse Racing News | Paulick Report.

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In North America's commercial stallion game, they don't tend to keep you around unless you're doing something right.

Every year, we see an exodus of stallions to regional and international markets, or the pensioner life, when farms believe a horse can no longer hack it as either a sire of commercial prospects or runners. The process of becoming the type of “made man” who isn't playing for his job every season is different for every farm and every sire, but one way or another, every one of them must prove himself.

With that proven status often comes a higher stud fee to show that some of the risks and question marks have been removed from a stallion's resume. If you know roughly what you're going to get, that's worth something.

Though the “proven” status often comes at a premium, there are still plenty of veteran stallions out there standing for $20,000 or less who have shown over the years that they can put a winner on your mare's produce record. This time around, we'll take a look at two divisions of the All-Value Sire Team known for their reliability – The Veteran and The Sprinter.

To see who else has made the team this year, click here.

To view the extensive chart I've used to track 159 value sires by 51 different statistical categories to aid in my decision-making process, sign up for our Patreon. 

Let's get on with the show.

The Veteran: A sire with at least five crops of racing age in 2024. His reputation is pretty much set in terms of what kind of foal he can get you, which means it's easier to plan what kind of mares might work best with him.

First Team: Midshipman

Ch. h., 2006, Unbridled's Song x Fleet Lady, by Avenue of Flags
Standing at Darley, KY, $15,000

The year might have changed, but the song remains the same – Midshipman is one of the safest bets on the board.

If you're looking to get a winner under your mare's produce record, Midshipman tracks at 58 percent winners from horses of racing age, which trails only The Factor (62 percent) and Take Charge Indy (59 percent) among significant value sire contenders. It's also a higher percentage of winners from horses of racing age than all North American stallions standing for $70,000 or more except Tapit (62 percent) and War Front (58 percent).

Though Midshipman was himself a champion juvenile, this is not an indication that his runners are “one and done” types when it comes to winning. His progeny win 16 percent of their total races, which ties him for the highest among significant Kentucky stallions standing for $20,000 or less, and his WOW figure (wins divided by winners) of 3.44 wins per winner trails only First Samurai (3.65) among Kentucky value sires.

I know what you're thinking: Wins are fine, but can Midshipman take you to the next level? His six percent stakes winners from foals of racing age is tied for the highest among significant North American value sires, and it puts him in the mix with stallions standing for multiples of his fee.

The ways that Midshipman's runners have won those stakes races suggest he can cook with whatever ingredients the mare brings to the recipe. Amidst Waves and Ship Cadet did damage in the 2-year-old sprint ranks during this year's Saratoga meet, while 3-year-old Back To Ohio has won eight of nine career starts and absolutely dominated the state-bred stakes scene, going around one turn and two.

As a son of Unbridled's Song, Midshipman could have easily fallen prey to having a fine-boned appearance, but he has plenty of substance, likely helped along by his broodmare sire Avenue of Flags, a stout son of the equally stout Seattle Slew who was extremely fast out of the gates as a juvenile.

Though Midshipman was a Breeders' Cup winner around two turns, his frame skews more toward a sprinter's, with a relatively compact, strong build and solid bone, and his best foals have tended to follow in that notion.

We've seen that carry on through future generations, as well. One of Midshipman's best runners was Lady Shipman, who came within a neck of beating the boys in the 2015 Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint. Lady Shipman is herself the dam of the elite turf sprinter Golden Pal, who has since become North America's busiest stallion. Lady Shipman is a carbon copy of her sire, with all of the substance you'd ever want in a mare, and Golden Pal adds a bit of refinement from his own sire, Uncle Mo.

But enough about the present, let's talk about the future. Darley has been very careful with its pricing of Midshipman over the years, and breeders have responded with lots of support. He has a pipeline of 190 registered 2-year-olds, yearlings, and weanlings, which is on the higher end among veteran value sires, and he consistently covers a healthy book of mares.

There is so much value in knowing what you have when it comes to planning a mating. Midshipman can give you a consistency that few others in the stud book can offer at any price.

Second Team: Sky Mesa

B. h., 2000, Pulpit x Caress, by Storm Cat
Standing at Three Chimneys Farm, KY, $10,000

The exacta stays the same from last year in this category, but in a position where consistency is king, that shouldn't come as a surprise.

Midshipman and Sky Mesa are practically in lockstep when it comes to lifetime percentages: dead even by winners from foals of racing age (58 percent) and stakes winners from racing-age foals (six percent), and Midshipman holds a slight lead by percentage of total wins from progeny starts (16 percent to 15 percent).

Sky Mesa has 17 crops of racing age, which ties Mineshaft for the most among active North American value sires, so we have about as much data on what the stallion can get for you as we could possibly collect. He gets his foals to the track and into winner's circles.

As an A.P. Indy-line horse through his own sire Pulpit, Sky Mesa retains many of the hallmarks of that line, with a big shoulder and powerful backside propelling a frame that's not overly tall.

We have the formula on what makes a good Sky Mesa runner about as well as any stallion in North America. At a $10,000 stud fee, he should be on the list for any breed-to-race operation.

The Sprinter: A veteran sire who either has a proven track record of getting successful sprinters, or a young sire who has the racetrack performance or pedigree to suggest his foals will excel around one turn.

First Team: Frosted

Gr. or ro. h., 2012, Tapit x Fast Cookie, by Deputy Minister
Standing at Darley, KY, $10,000

Believe it or not, I don't enter the selection process with any preconceived notions of who I plan to end up where on the team. My first year of doing these in 2022 proved that who I thought might be a sure thing in a certain position would be anything but a sure thing once I sat down with all the evidence.

With that being said, there was never a point where I thought Frosted would ever put a dent in this category. Nothing about his race record, and very little of his pedigree, says “sprinter,” but Frosted has turned out to be an incredibly potent source of successful one-turn runners.

Over the past two years, Frosted has gotten 3.26 percent stakes winners from total sprint starters, which stacks up better than a lot of Kentucky sires whose modus operandi is one-turn races. He's been especially good in 2023, where his eight sprint stakes winners (of 10 total stakes winners) tie him for fourth among Kentucky sires at all price points behind the likes of Into Mischief (18) and Munnings (12). His 4.35 percent sprint stakes winners from starts in 2023 is also in the pantheon of sires this season.

His top sprinter is Jasper Krone, who has become a millionaire in Japan as a four-time stakes winner, including scores in the Group 3 CBC Sho and the Kitakyushu Kinen.

Domestically, Frosted's sprinters have been led in 2023 by Ice Dancing, who started the year with a convincing victory in the G3 Santa Ynez Stakes, going seven furlongs. He has also had nice stakes winners in Post Time (City of Laurel Stakes at Laurel Park), Flakes (Game Face Stakes at Gulfstream Park) and Frosty View (Northern Lights Futurity at Canterbury Park).

Darley has been adjusting Frosted's stud fee for a few years, and he has been eligible for the All-Value Sire Team since the 2022 breeding season. He stood for $10,000 for the first time in 2023, and breeders responded by packing 154 mares into his book. The increase of 46 mares from the previous season was the ninth biggest year-to-year gain in mares bred this season.

Buyers have also responded with overwhelming positivity to Frosted's lower fee. The median sale price from his yearling crop conceived in 2021 – the first year he stood for $25,000 – rose to $40,000 after finishing at $30,000 the previous season. His weanling crop, conceived on a $20,000 fee, also saw year-over-year improvements in median sale price this fall.

Darley seems to have found a good balance with supply and demand with their pricing on Frosted, and in doing so, they might have unlocked a skill in the stallion that we couldn't have seen coming. Frosted is by no means “just” a sprint sire because of his lofty placing in this category, but knowing what a sire can be good at can be helpful in planning matings. At $10,000, Frosted offers a ton of value, no matter what you're trying to do with him.

Second Team: Jimmy Creed

Ch. h., 2009, Distorted Humor x Hookedonthefeelin, by Citidancer
Standing at Spendthrift Farm, KY, $10,000

Last year's First-Teamer in this division doesn't stray far from that spot in 2023, thanks in large part to his ability to get a stakes winner around one turn.

Over the past two years, Jimmy Creed has gotten 3.73 percent sprint stakes winners from starters, which puts him above a lot of his contemporaries, and especially those known as one-turn sires.

Jimmy Creed's best runner is the determined turf miler Casa Creed, who has had a history of big efforts when he scales back to one turn, including a win in last year's G1 Jaipur Stakes. He also has Private Creed taking the G2 Franklin-Simpson Stakes at Kentucky Downs and Joey Freshwater winner winning the G3 Bay Shore Stakes at Aqueduct. All six of Jimmy Creed's graded stakes winners earned that status in sprint races.

Jimmy Creed remains a trusted name with breeders, who sent 113 mares to him in 2023, marking a 19-mare increase.

On the commercial market, his strength continues to be in the 2-year-old arena once his foals get a chance to show how fast they are. His juveniles finished with the third-fastest average one-furlong breeze time in the 2023 2-Year-Old Sale Sire Power Rankings, with an average time of :10.164 seconds (measuring in tenths), which further displays just how quick the turn of foot on the Jimmy Creeds can be.

A breeder has to know what they want when they send a mare to Jimmy Creed, but if they do, and it matches up with what the sire can offer, there are paths to success.

Check in for future installments to see who made the All-Value Sire Team among stallions of various ages and specialties, including freshman sires of 2024, sires awaiting their first yearlings, regional sires, and more.

The post The 2023-24 All-Value Sire Team Presented By Pedigrees 360: The Veteran Sire And The Sprinter appeared first on Horse Racing News | Paulick Report.

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The future is now, even if the future is several years away.

So much of Thoroughbred breeding is based on factors that can only be left up to speculation when a mating decision is made. We can't know if a rookie sire is going to be a star or a dud when they enter the breeding shed for the first time. We can't know what the industry will look like three to four years down the road; which tracks and circuits might rise and fall, and which ones might make drastic changes to their footprint that could change what kind of pedigrees work best on them.

For the rookie sires at least, that leap of faith also brings with it the biggest spoils. If a breeder can't afford to go to a pantheon-level commercial sire – the Into Mischiefs of the world – the next best way to ensure that potential buyers call your horse's number is to breed to a first-year stallion. Blue sky can't be disproven, and the only thing the market loves as much as a sure thing is a mystery box.

This week, let's take a look at two divisions that are perhaps the most fluid on this list. The potential fluctuation of a rookie sire is obvious, but standing out as a good sire of all-weather surface runners is the kind of skill where the payoff is to some degree at the mercy of the direction of the industry.

The drumbeat for synthetic tracks has gotten louder in recent years as a way to address safety concerns, and horses are running for great money over the Tapeta at Woodbine, Turfway Park, and Gulfstream Park, among other spots. Plans call for Belmont Park to add a Tapeta surface as part of its big remodel, which will open up even greater opportunities for a horse that can get a synthetic runner. If a few other significant tracks either flip to a synthetic main track or add it as an alternative surface, it'll be impossible to ignore breeding for intent.

Conventional wisdom suggests a horse bred for turf will be the most likely to carry their skill set over to a synthetic surface. When Keeneland and the California circuits were at the peak of their all-weather periods, turf stalwart Kitten's Joy earned his first leading general sire title. We'll see if that holds true in 2023 and beyond once I crunch the numbers.

To get a look back at the first installment of this season's All-Value Sire Team, and to see the ground rules for how selections are made, click here.

The Rookie: A stallion standing his first season in 2024.

First Team: Two Phil's

Ch. c., 2020, Hard Spun x Mia Torri, by General Quarters
Standing at WinStar Farm, KY, $12,500

We only got a glimpse of where the ceiling could have been for Two Phil's before an injury ended his career, but if you believed he had more ladder to climb (like I obviously did, given his placement here), then betting on his talent at a $12,500 stud fee could end up being something of a gift.

Leaving his race record out of it for a moment, I was so impressed by Two Phil's coming out of his stall. When I look at him, I see Hard Spun, but I also see his paternal grandsire Danzig. All three (and the great Danzig son War Front) have a way of tying in from their long necks to their shoulders that seems to be unique to their particular sire line – long neck, lower tie-in that gives them the appearance of stretching forward – and Two Phil's is one of the clearest examples I've seen of that particular stamp.

Furthermore, Danzig maintained a lot of muscle into his later years, and Two Phil's is on to a great start of following in his footsteps. He'd had some time to let down between retiring in June and my visit with him in November, but he didn't look like a horse going through an awkward stage between racetrack life and stallion life. Two Phil's still looked like the guy you want stepping off the team bus first. We know Two Phil's had two-turn chops, but it wouldn't surprise me if he can get a sprinter, given the amount of strength he has in his shoulder and bringing up the rear.

Then, of course, there is what he did on the track.

Two Phil's was a three-time Grade 3 winner at 1 1/16 miles or longer, taking the Grade 3 Street Sense Stakes as a juvenile, and the G3 Jeff Ruby Steaks and G3 Ohio Derby the following season. He also looked clear in the stretch of the Kentucky Derby, and was bested by just a length. I, like many others, went into the Derby thinking Two Phil's was going to be best suited scaling back to a mile in the second half of his sophomore campaign and beyond, but he suddenly became a serious threat for the major 3-year-old route races after the Churchill Downs tilt.

I still hold onto that notion that Two Phil's could have been a heck of a miler if routing didn't work out for him, and we could see that play out with his foals, who will surely be bred for a variety of purposes. Given he was a graded winner at two with a ferocious turn of foot, paired with a very reasonable stud fee, I could see him being a popular target for 2-year-old pinhookers during the yearling sales of 2025.

Two Phil's showed a fair bit of versatility during his on-track career, winning impressively at multiple distances, and over both dirt and synthetic. His dam, the General Quarters mare Mia Torri, also won over both dirt and synthetic, and she was a multiple Grade 3-placed stakes winner over the main track. Both sire Hard Spun and broodmare sire General Quarters were versatile with how they could succeed on the racetrack, and their ensuing foals have largely done the same.

We don't know much what will work best with Two Phil's beyond what we can speculate from what's in front of us, but it sure seems like he's not limited by much in terms of what kind mares would pair well with him. At that price point, he stands to attract a diverse first book of mares.

Second Team: Pappacap

B. h., 2019, Gun Runner x Pappascat, by Scat Daddy
Standing at Walmac Farm, KY, $12,500

There are few names in the stud book that are hotter right now than Gun Runner, but not everyone can afford that heat bill.

Gun Runner's highly-coveted first sons have begun populating farms around Kentucky, among them Cyberknife, Gunite, Taiba, and Early Voting (for part of his first book, at least), and though they're all standing for less than papa, only one son is standing for $20,000 or less. This is, in fact, your most affordable ticket to the Gun show.

However, “affordable” is not the same as “low quality.” Pappacap was a Grade 2 winner around one turn as a 2-year-old, and he finished second in that season's Breeders' Cup Juvenile. He also earned graded placings as a sprinter, a miler, and a router at three.

The female family has a bit of heft to it, as well, with the Scat Daddy mare Pappascat also producing Grade 3 winner Bobby O. Al Qasr, a Peruvian Horse of the Year and U.S. stakes winner, can also be found on his page.

Walmac Farm staff told me in September that Pappacap's book was already filling up nicely, so I expect he will have a solid pipeline of foals to get him off the mark in his first crop.

Pappacap is a well-balanced individual who I expect will develop quite a bit after his first year at stud. He cuts an athletic frame, much like his sire Gun Runner, and both measure at 16.1 hands, though I wouldn't classify either as particularly leggy. Pappacap's silhouette is remarkably faithful to his sire's, and with a decent sample size of what works with Gun Runner, that could inform shrewd breeders on what kind of mares might best populate the rookie's book.

The All-Weather Sire: A stallion with proven success getting runners over all-weather surfaces, or a young stallion whose pedigree and on-track performance suggests he could succeed as a sire of synthetic runners.

First Team: Bucchero

Ch. h., 2012, Kantharos x Meetmeontime, by General Meeting
Standing at McMahon of Saratoga Thoroughbreds, NY, $7,500

Talk about a stat boost: Bucchero's runners have hit the board in 52.9 percent of their races over all-weather surfaces, which is an improvement of 5.9 percentages over their 47 percent in the money rate over all surfaces.

Bucchero's percentage of wins from total starts over synthetic of 19.9 percent is better than all significant active Kentucky stallions besides Bolt d'Oro (22.7 percent), Ghostzapper (20.4 percent), and Twirling Candy (20.3 percent).

His in-the-money percentage improvement on synthetic versus his total in-the-money percentage trails only Oscar Performance (whose ITM percentage goes up a whopping 23.3 percent on all-weather surfaces), Flameaway (19.3 percent from a small sample size), West Coast (7.7 percent), and Bucchero's own sire Kantharos (6.2 percent).

One might easily point out that as a former Florida sire, Bucchero has had the benefit of racing state-breds on Gulfstream's Tapeta surface year-round, but the cumulative opportunities over tracks where Tapeta is the primary surface – Turfway, Woodbine, and the not-long-for-this-world Golden Gate Fields – are comparable, if not greater. Other sires have had opportunities to put up similar numbers and the vast majority haven't.

Bucchero moves to New York at an opportune time to continue this run of synthetic success. By the time his first New York-sired foals hit the track in 2027, Belmont Park should have its one-mile Tapeta surface in operation, meaning the opportunities for his state-breds to make a difference on the surface should carry through from his final Florida crops to the Empire State.

As a Florida sire, the goal for many of Bucchero's breeders has been the 2-year-olds in training sales, and his status as the highest-positioned sire in the 2023 2-Year-Old Sale Sire Power Rankings standing outside of Kentucky has proven he can get them out fast. Bucchero sired one of just seven juveniles to breeze an eighth of a mile in :9 3/5 seconds this year, and he finished 14th among qualifying sires by average breeze time.

However, Bucchero's median yearling price has managed to remain steady as his lull-year crops begin to hit the auction scene, remaining at $16,000 from 2022 to 2023. If his New York-sired yearlings can maintain that median, it would make him competitive with his new contemporaries in that state.

Bucchero sports a masculine build, fitting of both his on-track career as a graded stakes-winning turf sprinter, and the Storm Cat/Tale of the Cat/Lion Heart/Kantharos family tree. He's solid throughout with plenty of bone, but he's not just a cannonball. There's a raciness to him that the right mare could capitalize on to create a potential two-turn athlete.

I keep coming up with different ways to slice and dice the stallion ranks, and Bucchero keeps outkicking his status as a regional sire. I think he'll be just fine in New York, especially as it transitions to a state where Tapeta will soon be a significant part of the picture.

Second Team: Flameaway

Ch. h., 2015, Scat Daddy x Vulcan Rose, by Fusaichi Pegasus
Standing at Darby Dan Farm, KY, $20,000

Once again, we look toward the future. We only have 29 all-weather starts for Flameaway's progeny from his debut class of 2-year-olds, but those youngsters are making it count.

Flameaway is hitting at 55.2 percent in the money on the synthetic from his freshman crop, and he's already getting stars. Freedom Principle broke his maiden over Gulfstream Park's all-weather track, then followed up with a win in the Armed Forces Stakes. Further north, She's Fire finished second on debut on the Tapeta track at Presque Isle Downs, then she came back later this year to win the Fitz Dixon Jr. Memorial Juvenile Stakes by 3 1/4 lengths.

Flameaway himself only had one go on an all-weather track, winning his debut at Woodbine as a juvenile. From there, he proved himself to be a versatile runner, winning stakes races over both dirt and turf. His own sire, Scat Daddy, proved himself able to get an elite horse over any surface during his truncated career.

Flameaway is another stallion whose median sale price has remained consistent between his first and second crops at $25,000, which suggests both buyers and breeders are keeping the faith with him as his first runners play out. We'll need a lot more evidence before Flameaway can be labeled as “proven” for anything, even as a sire of synthetic runners, but if you're going to be good at something early on, it doesn't hurt to be especially good at it.

Check in for future installments to see who made the All-Value Sire Team among stallions of various ages and specialties, including, freshman sires of 2024, sires of sprinters, regional sires, and more.

The post The 2023-24 All-Value Sire Team Presented By Pedigrees360: The Rookie And The All-Weather Sire appeared first on Horse Racing News | Paulick Report.

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