Ryanair Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 2) at 1:20 pm on Thursday, 12th March 2026
The going is Good to Soft, which is standard for this race and typically allows the cream of the Irish mares to use their superior cruising speeds.
The 12-Year Trends: Ryanair Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle
Irish Dominance: Irish-trained runners have won 9 of the 10 renewals (90%).
The Mullins Factor: Willie Mullins has won 5 of the 10 renewals.
Freshness: 9 of the 10 winners had a break of at least 26 days prior to the festival.
Class: 8 of the last 10 winners had won a race worth at least £5,000 to the winner.
Market Position: 8 of the 10 winners were in the top four of the betting.
Season Form: All winners had won at least once earlier in the season.
Runner Analysis & Order of Preference
1. Oldschool Outlaw (NR: 164.2)
The Verdict: Boasting the highest Neural Rating in the field by a significant margin, she fits the “class” trend perfectly. Her rating of 164.2 suggests she is a Grade 1 mare in a Grade 2 race. Being Irish-trained and arriving here on the back of a dominant season, she ticks every major trend box, particularly the requirement for high-value previous wins.
Trend Score: 10/10
2. Bambino Fever (NR: 140.8)
The Verdict: Another strong Irish contender who meets the age and season-form requirements. Her NR of 140.8 marks her as the primary danger to the favourite. She has shown she handles Good to Soft ground and has the tactical speed required for the “Dawn Run” course.
Trend Score: 9/10
3. Kingston Queen (NR: 87.3)
The Verdict: A solid performer who fits the profile of a typical Mullins/Irish improver. While her NR is lower than the top two, her “Course Factor” and “Timing” stats are high. She arrives fresh, which is a key trend for this race.
Trend Score: 8/10
4. Diamond Du Berlais (NR: 83.7)
The Verdict: Represents a slightly more “exposed” profile but remains a high-class novice. Her speed figures on Good to Soft ground are competitive. She fits the trend of winners having had exactly 2 or 3 runs over hurdles prior to arriving at Cheltenham.
Trend Score: 7/10
5. White Noise (NR: 83.2)
The Verdict: A progressive type who has seen significant market support. Her NR is almost identical to Diamond Du Berlais, but she gains the edge in “Distance” stats. She is a strong stayer at 2 miles, which is vital for the climb to the finish.
Trend Score: 7/10
6. La Conquiere (NR: 78.7)
The Verdict: While she has the “French-bred” profile that often does well in this race, her NR suggests she may lack the raw gear-change of the top three. She is a reliable jumper but likely an each-way prospect at best.
Trend Score: 6/10
7. Place De La Nation (NR: 73.0)
The Verdict: A middle-tier rating. She hasn’t quite reached the Grade 2 level in her previous starts, and trends suggest you need to be a “graded horse in waiting” to win this.
Trend Score: 5/10
8. Blue Velvet (NR: 65.7)
The Verdict: Despite a reasonable rating, she fails the “Top 4 in the betting” trend. Historically, winners of this race are very well-found in the market.
Trend Score: 4/10
Final Selection Summary
1. Oldschool Outlaw (The Statistical Standout)
2. Bambino Fever (The Main Danger)
3. Kingston Queen (The Freshness Play)
4. Diamond Du Berlais (The Consistent Novice)
