BetMGM Queen Mother Champion Chase (Grade 1) at 4:00 pm on Wednesday, 11th March 2026
The 12-Year Trends: Queen Mother Champion Chase
Age: 11 of the last 12 winners were aged between 7 and 9. (10-year-olds and older have a very poor record).
Grade 1 Success: 11 of the last 12 winners had already won a Grade 1 chase.
Season Form: 10 of the last 12 winners finished in the top two on their previous start.
Cheltenham Factor: 9 of the last 12 winners had previously won at Cheltenham.
Market Position: 9 of the last 12 winners were in the top three of the betting.
Official Rating: Almost every winner in the last decade has been rated 164 or higher.
Runner Analysis & Order of Preference
1. Majborough
The Verdict: By 2026, this horse reaches the “Golden Age” of 7. His massive Neural Rating of 170.8 suggests he has the “engine” required to match the 164+ trend standard. As a former high-class juvenile, he possesses the natural speed for a two-mile chase on Good to Soft ground. If he has translated his hurdles class to fences, he is the clear trend-fit and class standout.
Trend Score: 10/10
2. Il Etait Temps
The Verdict: A Willie Mullins-trained runner who is a proven Grade 1 winner over fences. At 8 years old in 2026, he is in his prime. He handles Good to Soft ground perfectly and is a “Cheltenham regular,” ticking the course-experience box. His high NR marks him as the primary danger to the favorite.
Trend Score: 9/10
3. L’Eau Du Sud
The Verdict: Represents the Dan Skelton stable, which excels in these high-tempo races. While often viewed as a handicap specialist, his NR of 111.7 indicates he has stepped up significantly into the elite bracket. He has the speed for two miles and historically performs best on “Good to Soft.”
Trend Score: 8/10
4. Found A Fifty
The Verdict: A consistent Grade 1 performer for Gordon Elliott. At age 9, he is at the upper limit of the preferred age trend but remains a formidable opponent. He is an exceptionally strong traveller, a trait essential for the Champion Chase, though his NR suggests he may find one or two of the younger “speedsters” too quick at the finish.
Trend Score: 7/10
5. Captain Guinness
The Verdict: The 2024 winner of this race. However, by 2026, he is an 11-year-old. This is a significant trend negative, as older horses rarely win this race (Special Tiara being a rare outlier). While his class is undeniable, trends suggest his peak championship years are behind him.
Trend Score: 5/10
6. Libberty Hunter
The Verdict: A very capable chaser but his rating suggests he sits in the “Grade 2/High-end Handicap” bracket rather than the elite Grade 1 tier required to win a Champion Chase.
Trend Score: 4/10
7. Saint Segal
The Verdict: Similar to Libberty Hunter, he lacks the Grade 1 winning profile that 11 of the last 12 winners possessed. He is a fine jumper but likely lacks the raw speed for this level.
Trend Score: 4/10
8. Quilixios (NR: 54.7) / Brookie (NR: 54.7)
The Verdict: Both fall well below the class threshold. Quilixios is a former Triumph Hurdle winner, but his recent chase form and low NR suggest he is not the force he once was.
Trend Score: 2/10
Final Selection Summary
1. Majborough (The Class Standout)
2. Il Etait Temps (The Mullins/Trend Specialist)
3. L’Eau Du Sud (The Progressive Challenger)
4. Found A Fifty (The Reliable Veteran)
