Few positions in the horse racing industry are under more pressure than a foal from the first crop of a commercial sire.
From the womb, every aspect of their value and ability is measured to exhaustion in an attempt to deduce whether their sire stacks up within their own hierarchy of rookies, and how they'll project into future seasons. Buyers work themselves into a frenzy trying to secure first-croppers during their pioneering trips through each auction season, and most of those sires and their foals will never see prices as lofty again.
Potential is an incredible marketing tool, and until their foals reach racing age and remove the veil on what they can really do, the two classes of sires we'll look at this week are built almost entirely on foundations of potential.
There are plenty of semi-reliable indicators of future success at stud – race record, conformation, pedigree, early reviews and returns on first foals – but the truth is, we're all flying blind until the racetrack proves them out, and even that doesn't always determine a sire's final destination.
This can be a risky time for breeders to dive in on a stallion, but the reward can be great, too. If a stallion flops early, those follow-up breeders are stuck holding the bag on a young horse whose commercial value has deflated like a balloon. If he's a hit, though, those believers during the lean years are in the right place at the right time with coveted names in the catalog when demand becomes sky-high. Fortune favors the bold.
To view who else has made the 2023-24 All-Value Sire Team so far, click here.
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And now, without further ado…
The Freshman: A freshman sire of 2-year-olds in 2024.
Gr. or ro. h., 2016, Violence x Melody Lady, by Unbridled's Song
Standing at Three Chimneys Farm, KY, $15,000
If a horse stands for under $20,000 in his debut year at stud and he gets a seven-figure yearling from his first crop, chances are good he'll have a spot waiting for him on the All-Value Sire Team at the end of the year. After finishing as the Second Team Sprinter on last year's team based on his weanlings alone, Volatile took it up a notch in 2023, and his placing reflects that.
Volatile became one of two rookie sires with a seven-figure offering at this year's Keeneland September Yearling Sale when Mike Rutherford went to $1.15 million for Hip 215, a filly out of Grade 1 winner Love and Pride whose third dam is 2006 Broodmare of the Year Cara Rafaela.
That was obviously a best-of-the-best-case scenario, but that filly was far from the only Volatile yearling that buyers and sale organizers coveted. His 2023 median yearling sale price of $72,000 was the highest of any North American stallion standing for $20,000 or less, and his four horses cataloged in Book 1 of this year's Keeneland September sale was the most of any first-crop stallion at the $20,000-and-below price level. Only three other rookie stallions had more entries in the elite Book 1 of the Keeneland September sale.
I've liked what I've seen from the Volatiles that I've inspected at the sales so far. Volatile is himself a little stockier and stronger than his pedigree would suggest (by the leggy Violence, out of an Unbridled's Song mare), and the best of his sons and daughters have inherited a lot of that body type.
The middle-book types got a little stretchier, but honestly, that might not be a bad thing. Volatile's family and his own race record are both sprint-heavy, so if a lighter frame can help his runners better get two turns and expand his repertoire, all the better.
It's fair to look at Volatile's race record and wonder if he can get his 2-year-olds out fast enough to have a say in the 2024 freshman sire race. He didn't begin his racing career until July of his 3-year-old season, and he didn't enter stakes company until the early summer of his 4-year-old campaign.
I'm not too concerned. His full-sister Buy Sell Hold won the Kentucky Juvenile Stakes, which is about as early on the 2-year-old stakes calendar as it gets. Dam Melody Lady was also a winner at two and she picked up a stakes victory in January of her 3-year-old season. Finally, Violence is the sire of Forte, the defending champion 2-year-old male.
Volatile is himself a solidly-built horse – not to the point of bulkiness, but he's got muscle to spare – and with that body type and sprinting style being passed on to his foals, I expect they'll be active and popular during the 2-year-old sales once they go under the stopwatch at the under-tack shows.
The pipeline is solid for Volatile, as well, with nearly 200 registered weanlings and yearlings. He also saw an increase of eight mares to his book in 2023, going up from 157 mares in 2022 to 165 this year.
The commercial market has set a high ceiling for a stallion standing for under $20,000, and while another seven-figure horse is probably to much to expect during the upcoming 2-year-old season, I expect Volatile's first juveniles to forge the path well. If they can even get close to keeping up with that pace once they hit the racetrack, Volatile's days as a horse eligible for the All-Value Sire Team might be numbered.
Ch. h., 2016, Candy Ride x Mona de Momma, by Speightstown
Standing at Spendthrift Farm, KY, $15,000
Wherever Vekoma goes, the industry has followed. After being visited by a whopping 222 mares in his debut book, fourth-most in North America, Vekoma was in the upper tier of first-crop sires by both median weanling and yearling sale price. His yearling median of $60,000 was third-best among qualifying stallions in this particular division, and he had a colt finish with the second-highest price of the day during session five of this year's Keeneland September sale, hammering for $775,000.
In a business quick to drop stallions quickly for the next shiny new toy, breeders and buyers have stuck around for Vekoma. His pipeline is packed, with 340 combined registered yearlings and weanlings, and his book of mares in 2023 grew to 212, just missing his first year total. Very few sires accomplish that in the doldrum years.
His median weanling price held pretty steady, as well, with his second crop finishing at $52,500 after his first class brought a median of $75,000. Every meaningful commercial sire experienced a dropoff in median from their second-crop yearlings, but Vekoma absorbed the blow better than any of his contemporaries. In fact, his weanling median for 2023 was the highest of any horse in this category.
The freshman sire race can become a war of attrition, and the horse with the most bodies to throw at it is often in the driver's seat to compile the earnings necessary to finish high on the list. Vekoma has a lot of things going for him to be a top freshman sire in 2024, and people have already lined up to take advantage if he hits. If you believe in him, this might be one of your last chances to get him at this price.
The Prospect: A stallion whose first foals are weanlings or yearlings of 2024. He has foals on the ground (or will soon), but none yet of racing age.
B. h., 2018, Into Mischief x Brooch, by Empire Maker
Standing at Juddmonte Farms, KY, $20,000
The market knows what it wants, and right now, that's Into Mischief or as close to him as it can get.
That point was driven home this spring when Mandaloun covered 211 mares, which was the 11th most in North America, and the most by a son of Into Mischief.
For the breeders who didn't get into that first book, Mandaloun was the leading first-year covering sire that qualified for this division with a median sale price of $65,000 from 15 mares sold. Topping that list was Mamie Van D, a Curlin mare from the family of Tapit, who hammered for $350,000.
So, what separates Mandaloun from the seemingly-required son of Into Mischief that stands at practically every major stud farm in Kentucky?
Let's start with what's similar. Looking at pictures of Mandaloun and Into Mischief side-to-side reveal two horses that look an awful lot alike. Both have athletic shoulders that stop short of the bulky muscling commonly seen from a Storm Cat-line stallion, but the topline leading into the rump is much more in line with the Storm Cat influence. I expect Mandaloun to fall even more in line with that silhouette as he continues to settle in to life at stud.
Both father and son have length in the neck and down the middle. However, that scope is also where the two start to differ.
Mandaloun has an extra dash of athleticism and scope that I think comes from the female family and broodmare sire Empire Maker. A Juddmonte homebred, Mandaloun has a lot of European influence on his page, starting with his dam Brooch, who was a multiple group stakes winner in Ireland.
The European background manifests itself most clearly, though, in Mandaloun's feet, which are solid and wide enough to suggest he could get you a decent turf horse to complement his Grade 1-winning dirt resume and the top side of his pedigree.
Mandaloun's most notable season on the racetrack obviously came at age three, and his best races were going long, but for breeders wondering if he can put a dent in the freshman sire race when that time comes, it's important to remember he went unbeaten as a 2-year-old. Though neither were stakes races, he beat some serious horses in those heats, including the likes of future Grade 1 winner Americanrevolution in his debut. Into Mischief's record as a sire of fast-starting sires speaks for itself, as well.
With such a big initial group of mares, Mandaloun is going to be given every chance to succeed with his freshman crop once those foals hit the ground. The competition for sons of Into Mischief at stud gets deeper with each passing year, but Mandaloun is well-positioned to land in the upper echelon.
B. h., 2018, Street Sense x Tyburn Brook, by Bernardini
Standing at Darley, KY, $17,500
Do you miss Bernardini? I know I do. Despite being a son of Street Sense, when I look at Speaker's Corner, I see his broodmare sire, the late Darley staple.
The shoulder on Speaker's Corner, the way he holds his head, and his topline all look consistent with Bernardini's type, by my eye. He's a much finer, racier model than Maxfield, a fellow son of Street Sense out of a Bernardini mare on the Darley roster, and I see that as a boon for Speaker's Corner, making him available to a wide variety of physical types.
Buyers seem to agree, so far. Speaker's Corner was second to Mandaloun among qualifying first-crop covering value sires by median mare sale price at $51,000. Darley doesn't tend to go crazy with stuffing their stallion's books, so an initial class of 149 mares should be plenty to launch his stud career.
I'll be interested to see where Speaker's Corner's type lands once his runners hit the track. Despite being by a two-turn sire in Street Sense, and out of a mare by the classic winner Bernardini, Speaker's Corner did his best work from seven furlongs to a mile. He has Grade 1 winners on the dirt on his page, along with winners of the French and Irish 2000 Guineas.
Speaker's Corner offers breeders a variety of options for mares to send that could end up working, and at a time when resumes are being built, having more irons in the fire is rarely a bad thing.
Come back next week for the final installment of the 2023-24 All-Value Sire Team, where we look at value stallions about to hit the prime of their careers, and regional standouts.
The post The 2023-24 All-Value Sire Team Presented By Pedigrees360: The Freshman And The Prospect appeared first on Horse Racing News | Paulick Report.
Santa Anita's prestigious Classic meet kicks off on Tuesday, Dec. 26, and FanDuel TV will bring live coverage of every race, every day into the homes of horse racing fans across the country. The stakes-laden opening day card is highlighted by the $300,000 Malibu Stakes (G1) where multiple graded stakes winner Damon's Mound is set to face seven rivals, including three top contenders trained by Bob Baffert, as the East Coast-based runner concludes his sophomore campaign.
The holiday programming will also feature the premier of a retrospective highlighting the top moments from FanDuel TV throughout 2023.
FanDuel TV's Todd Schrupp, Christina Blacker, Scott Hazelton, Simon Bray, Dave Weaver and Kurt Hoover will be reporting live from the Arcadia, Calif., track throughout the day with exclusive interviews, analysis and features.
Monday's 11-race card includes six graded stakes races – the $200,000 San Gabriel Stakes (G2), the $200,000 San Antonio Stakes (G2), the $200,000 San Mathis Mile (G2), the $300,000 La Brea Stakes (G1), the $300,000 American Oaks (G1), and the aforementioned Malibu.
The popular Jockey Cam technology will be utilized throughout the meet and FanDuel TV's coverage will also include the deployment of the drone camera and an iso-cam to provide viewers additional perspectives on the races.
Santa Anita's Classic Meet will run through April 8 at which point there will be a twelve-day break before the Hollywood Meet begins on April 19 and concludes on June 16. The track will host a total of 90 stakes races, 53 of them graded, including the Grade 1 Santa Anita Handicap (March 2) and the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby (April 6).
Gulfstream Park's annual Championship Meet is underway and FanDuel TV will be live from Florida with exclusive interviews, behind-the-scenes access and expert analysis throughout the season. The coverage will also include Jockey Cam technology as well as an iso-cam.
The Championship Meet runs through April and features premier racing including the Pegasus World Cup (January 27) as well as key Kentucky Derby prep races such as the Holy Bull (February 1), Fountain of Youth (March 2) and the Florida Derby (March 30).
The road to the Kentucky Derby will run through Hot Springs, Arkansas as the New Year begins with the $300,000 Smarty Jones Stakes which offers 10-5-3-2-1 Kentucky Derby qualifying points to the top five finishers. FanDuel TV's Scott Hazelton and Andie Biancone will be on-site with exclusive interviews and expert analysis.
The post Expanded FanDuel TV Coverage For Santa Anita Opening Day appeared first on Horse Racing News | Paulick Report.
Tuesday's opening day at Santa Anita Park is one of racing's traditions that has stood the test of time – even after the Arcadia, Calif., track's season was stretched into the summer months with the closing of Hollywood Park and the racing calendar seems on an almost endless loop from one year to the next.
Horseplayers and horses competing in California got something of a breather in December, with no turf racing since Del Mar closed Dec. 3 and the abbreviated Los Alamitos Thoroughbred meet ending its run Dec. 17. Not quite like baseball's off-season but a welcome respite nonetheless.
That's what makes the day after Christmas something so many horseplayers and horsepeople look forward to: a sense that a new season begins.
Opening day is chockful of graded stakes action: three Grade 1 races for 3-year-olds (the Malibu, La Brea and American Oaks) and three Grade 2 (the San Gabriel, San Antonio, and Mathis Mile). The Malibu has been the centerpiece of the seasonal curtain raiser since 1984, when Santa Anita management moved the race to the last week of December from the first week in January.
Prior to 1984, it had served as the opening leg of the three-race Strub Series, restricted to 4-year-olds. The series progressed from the seven furlongs of the Malibu to the San Fernando Stakes at 1 1/8 miles three weeks later, and culminating in the mile and a quarter Charles H. Strub Stakes, named for Santa Anita's founder.
Somehow the warm-up act became the main attraction. The Malibu was elevated to Grade 1 for the first time in 1995 while the San Fernando and Grade 1 Strub Stakes both eventually fell by the wayside and are no longer on the track's stakes calendar. The Malibu is now an important late-season race that gives horses one last chance to put Grade 1 credentials on a potential stallion resume. More about that later.
First run in 1952, only three Kentucky Derby winners have won the Malibu, the first being Determine, who won the roses in 1954 and took the Malibu the following January.
Spectacular Bid, the 1979 Derby winner, turned in one of the most electrifying Malibu performances ever in 1980, winning by five lengths over Flying Paster in 1:20 for seven furlongs. It was the first win in a perfect 9-for-9 Horse of the Year campaign for the son of Bold Bidder. The Buddy Delp runner would go on to sweep the Strub Series and add the Grade 1 Santa Anita Handicap to his record. His career ended with a walkover in the Woodward Stakes at Belmont Park that fall.
The third Kentucky Derby-Malibu winner was Ferdinand in 1986, making his first start since a third-place finish in the Belmont Stakes in June. The Charlie Whittingham-trained son of Nijinsky II would lose his next six starts, then finish the year strong with four consecutive triumphs, including a thrilling Breeders' Cup Classic win over that year's Kentucky Derby winner, Alysheba.
One famous flop in the race was Affirmed, the 1978 Triple Crown winner who finished third of five Malibu runners in his first start at 4. Sent away the 3-10 favorite, Affirmed did not get the best of trips under Steve Cauthen, who had shifted his tack to California that winter and was mired in a lengthy slump that would eventually reach 110 races without a win. After another defeat in the San Fernando Stakes, trainer Laz Barrera replaced Cauthen with Laffit Pincay Jr., who teamed with the Exclusive Native colt to win the Strub by 10 lengths – the first of seven straight wins that would earn Affirmed a second consecutive Horse of the Year crown.
In recent years, the Malibu has proven to be a key race for stallion prospects. Into Mischief, the current king of the North American stallion ranks, went to stud at Spendthrift Farm following his second-place finish to Bob Black Jack in the 2008 Malibu. Spendthrift has gone to the Malibu well for stallion prospects several times since then, most recently with 2019 winner Omaha Beach and last year's winner, Taiba. Lane's End stands two of the last six Malibu winners, City of Light (2017) and Flightline, who won the 2021 running and then had a perfect 3-for-3 season to be Horse of the Year in 2022.
This year's Malibu attracted a field of eight, only one of whom even competed in the Kentucky Derby – that being Kentucky invader Raise Cain, who finished a non-threatening eighth behind Mage on the first Saturday in May. The Ben Colebrook-trained colt comes in off a hard-fought win in the Perryville Stakes at Keeneland at the same distance as the Malibu. The most proven of the eight runners in the field is Damon's Mound, a two-time Grade 2 winner on the East Coast for trainer Michelle Lovell.
The path to the winner's circle likely travels through the barn of Hall of Famer Bob Baffert, who has three colts entered, a pair of Grade 3 winners in Fort Bragg and Speed Boat Beach, plus recent allowance winner Hejazi – a $3.55 million 2-year-old purchase at Fasig-Tipton's Midlantic Sale of 2-year-olds in May 2022. Baffert will be bidding for a sixth Malibu win, which would put him on equal footing with fellow Hall of Famer Richard Mandella.
Post time for Tuesday's 11-race card is 11 a.m. PT/2 p.m. ET. The Malibu, the eighth race, is scheduled for 2:30 p.m. PT/5:30 p.m. ET.
Santa Anita opening day entries.
The post Once A Warm-Up Act, Malibu Became Santa Anita’s Opening Day Headliner appeared first on Horse Racing News | Paulick Report.
