Improbable Provides Baffert With Back-to-Back Whitneys

‘TDN Rising Star’ Improbable (City Zip) scored back-to-back Grade I victories and provided his conditioner Bob Baffert with his second straight renewal of Saratoga’s prestigious GI Whitney S. Saturday with a dominant score in this ‘Win and You’re In’ event for the GI Breeders’ Cup Classic. Heavily Favored Tom’s d’Etat (Smart Strike) missed the break and was relegated to last early as native New Yorker Mr Buff (Friend or Foe) took command, loping through early splits of :25.12 and :49.74 with 3-1 shot Improbable keeping close tabs from second. Improbable seized command from Mr Buff as three-quarters went in 1:13.36 with MGSW By My Standards (Goldencents) charging up behind him. Improbable charged clear at the top of the lane and it was all over from there as the flashy chestnut rolled home to a two-length victory. By My Standards held on for second over Tom’s d’Etat. Last term’s GI Travers S. hero Code of Honor (Noble Mission {GB}) could only manage fourth over a tiring Mr Buff.

“He got up really quick and he put me in the race,” said winning pilot Irad Ortiz. “I just took a little hold because Mr Buff looked like the speed of the race. I put him in second in the clear, like we wanted and went from there. He was comfortable. By the backside, we felt pressure but by his own he started picking it up. I let him do his thing because they were going really slow so I let him go early. When I asked him turning for home, he responded really well.

“Big race. Big race,” said co-owner WinStar Farm’s Elliott Walden. “Obviously, we had to get over the gate [issues] a little bit and Irad and the gate crew did a wonderful job. He broke great, Irad had him in a super position and felt great all the way around there. Bob [Baffert] had him ready to go, as usual, when he comes east. When he got in the position that we had hoped for, which was kind of tracking Mr. Buff, we felt really good. Then they throw up kind of easy fractions. But, he’s just a different horse this year. That’s his second Grade I in a row. He got beat by Tom’s d’Etat in his first start at Oaklawn, but he’s set up for a big year and we’re just excited to continue that.”

As for the beaten favorite, Tom d’Etat, jockey Joel Rosario said, “He stumbled coming out. There was a lot going on. He was standing fine, he just missed the break. It changed my plan because I had to really get riding from there. I couldn’t take my time. I thought the pace was fine. Even after that, I was not too far from the lead. It looked like I was in a good spot. But stumbling coming out of the gate, I lost ground right away.”

A perfect three-for-three as a juvenile, including his first top level success in the GI Los Alamitos Futurity, Improbable faced his first defeat when second in last term’s GII Rebel S. and filled the same spot behind Omaha Beach (War Front) in the GI Arkansas Derby last term. Fifth, but promoted to fourth in the GI Kentucky Derby, the $200,000 KEESEP buy finished sixth in last year’s GI Preakness S., after which he was given a brief freshening. Making a successful comeback in the Shared Belief S. at Del Mar, he was fourth in the GI Pennsylvania Derby in September and could only manage fifth in the GI Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile Nov. 2. Coming up just 3/4 of a length short of Tom’s d’Etat in the Oaklawn Mile Apr. 11, Improbable flashed signs of his impressive juvenile form when running off to a 3 1/4-length success in the GI Hollywood Gold Cup S. going 10 panels in Arcadia June 6.

Pedigree Notes:

Improbable is one of 10 Grade I winners, 30 graded winners and 87 stakes winners for his late sire City Zip. He is also one of 26 top-level scorers, 103 graded victors and 221 stakes winners produced by a daughter of A.P. Indy. Improbable is the first foal to race out of Rare Event, whose -year-old filly Redemption Day (Quality Road), a $180,000 KEESEP purchase by WinStar, broke her maiden July 9 and finished second last time July 30. The 11-year-old mare is also the dam of juvenile colt Snake Doctor

Saturday, Saratoga Racecourse
WHITNEY S.-GI, $695,000, Saratoga, 8-1, 4yo/up, 1 1/8m, 1:48.65, ft.
1–IMPROBABLE, 124, c, 4, by City Zip
                1st Dam: Rare Event, by A.P. Indy
                2nd Dam: Our Rite of Spring, by Stravinsky
                3rd Dam: Turkish Tryst, by Turkoman
‘TDN Rising Star’ ($110,000 Wlg ’16 KEENOV; $200,000 Ylg ’17
KEESEP). O-WinStar Farm LLC, CHC Inc. and SF Racing LLC; B-St.
George Farm LLC & G. Watts Humphrey Jr. (KY); T-Bob Baffert;
J-Irad Ortiz, Jr. $400,000. Lifetime Record: 13-6-3-0,
$1,529,520. Click for eNicks report & 5-cross pedigree. Werk
   Nick Rating: A.
2–By My Standards, 122, c, 4, Goldencents–A Jealous Woman,
by Muqtarib. ($150,000 2yo ’18 OBSAPR). O-Allied Racing
Stable, LLC; B-Don Ladd (KY); T-W. Bret Calhoun. $140,000.
3–Tom’s d’Etat, 124, h, 7, Smart Strike–Julia Tuttle, by Giant’s
Causeway. ($330,000 Ylg ’14 KEESEP). O-G M B Racing; B-SF
Bloodstock LLC (KY); T-Albert M. Stall, Jr. $75,000.
Margins: 2, HF, 2HF. Odds: 3.25, 5.60, 1.00.
Also Ran: Code of Honor, Mr. Buff. Click for the Equibase.com chart, the TJCIS.com PPs or the free Equineline.com catalogue-style pedigree. VIDEO, sponsored by Fasig-Tipton.

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‘It Was Perfect,’ Tagg Says Of Tiz The Law’s Final Runhappy Travers Work

Sackatoga Stable's Grade 1 Belmont Stakes-champ Tiz the Law was the first horse on the main track at Saratoga Race Course in Saratoga Springs, N.Y., Saturday morning, breezing five furlongs in 59.44 seconds in preparation for the Grade 1, $1 million Runhappy Travers slated for August 8.

“I wanted to go in a minute and he went in a minute. It was perfect,” said trainer Barclay Tagg. “We couldn't have worked better. He came back good and he was breathing good. Everything was good. He's a gem to work with. He is doing perfectly as far as I'm concerned. I don't know what else we can do for him. I like this colt. Why wouldn't you? We've got a nice horse.”

The “Mid-Summer Derby,” to be contested at 1 1/4 miles for the country's most talented 3-year-olds, is one of three Grade 1s on the day, joining the $300,000 Ballerina presented by NYRA Bets for fillies and mares 3-years-old and up going seven furlongs in a “Win and You're In” qualifier for the Breeders' Cup Filly and Mare Sprint.

The day will also see sophomore fillies compete in the prestigious Grade 1, $300,000 Longines Test at seven furlongs, with the card bolstered by the Grade 3, $200,000 Troy, a 5 ½-furlong turf sprint for older males, and the Grade 3, $150,000 Waya, a 1 ½-mile turf route for older fillies and mares.

Sent out at 5:30 a.m., Tiz the Law recorded splits of 23.4, 36 and out in 1:13.2 over a fast main track with exercise rider Heather Smullen aboard.

“He's a little more relaxed in the morning,” said Smullen. “He's nice and professional and does his job. There is always adversity. If he sees someone, he will get strong. He will get aggressive. He's a racehorse. Luckily, there was no one out there today. He went out there today and did what I told him to do. He was strong and consistent. It sure seems like it [that he's ready for the Travers]. He's done everything they have asked him to do.”

A three-time Grade 1 winner, the son of second-crop sire Constitution followed up his August 2019 debut win at the Spa with a four-length score in the Grade 1 Champagne in October at Belmont. He completed his juvenile campaign with a close third in the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club, contested on a sloppy strip at Churchill Downs.

Tiz the Law launched his sophomore season at Gulfstream Park with a three-length romp in the Grade 3 Holy Bull in February. He then dominated the nine-furlong Grade 1 Florida Derby by 4 ¼ lengths on March 28.

Last out, Tiz the Law captured the first leg of the revised Triple Crown when 3 ¾-lengths the best in the nine-furlong Grade 1 Belmont Stakes.

Tagg and Sackatoga Stable traveled the Triple Crown road in 2003 with another New York-bred in Funny Cide. The Distorted Humor chestnut prevailed by 1 ¾-lengths in the Grade 1 Kentucky Derby under Hall of Famer Jose Santos. He followed up with a 9 ¾-length score in the Grade 1 Preakness, but finished third in the Grade 1 Belmont Stakes after setting the early pace in his Triple Crown bid.

Sackatoga Stable's operations manager Jack Knowlton said he was pleased with his colt's final preparations.

“Fortunately, he's an easy horse to deal with. He gallops out the way you want him to gallop out. Everything looks as good as it can be,” said Knowlton. “I want to enjoy the next week because it is going to be a lot of fun. We will get to do a lot of things and we will enjoy the moment at Saratoga. Hopefully, everything will work out. We've got four weeks to hopefully win another [Kentucky] Derby.

“It's exciting [to be here for the Travers]. My second biggest disappointment with the whole Funny Cide run was not being able to even run in the Travers,” added Knowlton. “When he got sick, that was a bigger disappointment after not winning the Triple Crown. Now, we've got a second chance. It's not often you get second chances the way we have with this horse and to do things that we couldn't do. We checked one box by winning the Belmont. It would be wonderful to check this box to win the Travers. I have a lot of confidence that he's going to get the mile and a quarter.”

Bred in New York by Twin Creeks Farm, Tiz the Law is out of the graded stakes-winning Tiznow broodmare Tizfiz. He has accumulated earnings of $1,480,300.

Tiz the Law, who leads all contenders with 272 Derby qualifying points, will contest a unique Triple Crown scenario that will continue with the Grade 1 Kentucky Derby, rescheduled from Saturday, May 2 to Saturday, September 5, as the second leg of the Classic series. The Grade 1 Preakness, originally slated for May 16, will close out the Triple Crown on October 3 at Pimlico Race Course.

Runhappy Travers contenders Country Grammer and Shivaree breezed at 8:45 a.m. after the break on the Saratoga main track, while possible entrant Mystic Guide breezed at Fair Hill Training Center in Elkton, Maryland.

Paul Pompa, Jr.'s Country Grammer, last out winner of the Grade 3 Peter Pan for trainer Chad Brown, worked a half-mile in company Saturday morning on the main track in 47.66. The Tonalist bay was clocked the opening quarter-mile in 24 flat.

A maiden winner at second asking when travelling nine furlongs in November at the Big A, Country Grammer was fifth in the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth in his seasonal debut in February at Gulfstream. Following a closing third in a one-turn, 1 1/16-mile allowance event on June 4 at Belmont, Country Grammer made his return to two turns a winning one in the 1 1/8-mile Peter Pan on Opening Day July 16 at Saratoga.

The experienced Shivaree, trained by Ralph Nicks for Jacks or Better Farm, was clocked five furlongs in 1:03.27 after the break on the Saratoga main.

“It looked like he went well. He's a tough horse and he handles everything fine,” said Nicks. “He handled shipping up there fine. He seems to be in good form. It was a nice maintenance breeze on the bridle, just kind of cruising around there this morning so all is well. We decided last week to take a shot, and everything's good.”

The Awesome of Course colt, a Florida homebred, boasts a record of 12-3-3-2 with purse earnings of $345,505. He captured the Buffalo Man and Limehouse at Gulfstream to kick off his 3-year-old campaign and was the runner-up in both the Grade 3 Swale and Grade 1 Florida Derby at the Hallandale Beach oval. Last out, Shivaree failed to fire when 11th in the Grade 2 Blue Grass on July 11 at Keeneland.

Junior Alvarado will have the call in the Runhappy Travers.

Godolphin homebred Mystic Guide, a late-running third in the Grade 3 Peter Pan for trainer Mike Stidham, added blinkers for his five-eighths work in 1:01 flat Saturday at Fair Hill.

“We felt like he was a little more handy with the blinkers on,” said Stidham. “He broke off three lengths behind another horse. We told the rider to stay even with the other horse down to the wire and he galloped out well. He went out in 13 and change. I was very happy with the addition of blinkers.”

Stidham said he will consider both the Runhappy Travers and the Grade 2, $150,000 Jim Dandy at nine furlongs on September 5 for Mystic Guide.

“We're considering the Travers and we're also considering maybe waiting and running in the Jim Dandy,” said Stidham. “We haven't decided yet but this definitely was a work we were going to use to see if the blinkers helped, which they seemed to, and then decide how aggressive we want to be. Obviously, going into the Travers would be a bit of an aggressive move.”

By Ghostzapper, the Kentucky homebred colt is out of five-time Grade 1-winner Music Note. Mystic Guide made his first two starts at Fair Grounds including a debut third in a six-furlong sprint in February ahead of a five-length maiden score when travelling 1 1/16-miles on March 21 that earned an 84 Beyer.

Mystic Guide rallied to finish second behind Tap It to Win in a June 4 allowance around one-turn with eventual Peter Pan victor and likely Runhappy Travers rival Country Grammer 1 1/2-lengths back in third.

With Jose Ortiz aboard for the first time in the Peter Pan, Mystic Guide settled in eighth position in the nine-furlong event rallying wide to finish third, 3 1/2-lengths back of the victorious Country Grammer, who was a neck better than Caracaro.

The probable field for the Runhappy Travers, which offers 100-40-20-10 Kentucky Derby qualifying points to the top-four finishers, is also expected to include Caracaro [Gustavo Delgado], Max Player [Linda Rice], Uncle Chuck [Bob Baffert] and South Bend [Bill Mott].

 

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Ellis Cancels Final Five Races Saturday

Following the fourth race Saturday at Ellis Park, heavy rain swept into Henderson, Ky., forcing the track to cancel the final five races on the card. Rain the night before had already caused Saturday’s turf races to be taken off the grass.

“In the best interest of safety for our jockeys and horses, we are calling off the remainder of the Saturday racing program,” said Ellis Park general manager Jeff Inman. “The rain is supposed to let up this evening, and the forecast calls for beautiful weather for Sunday’s Kentucky Downs Preview Day.”

Sunday’s card, which features five turf stakes for Kentucky Downs Preview Day, is scheduled to be held as planned.

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Thousand Words Steals Shared Belief

Thousand Words (Pioneerof the Nile) returned to winning ways and improved his position on the GI Kentucky Derby trail with a gutsy score in Del Mar’s Shared Belief S., which offered a total of 50 points towards the Run for the Roses. Breaking sharply from the inside post in this field scratched down to four, the 9-1 shot had all three rivals hot on his tail through a :23.89 opening quarter. GI Santa Anita Derby hero and heavy favorite Honor A.P. (Honor Code) was the first to break ranks, moving up onto the pacesetter’s outside hip and was joined by $3.85-million FTFMAR topper Cezanne (Curlin) to his inside as the half-mile went up in :47.93.  Cezanne drew even with his stablemate Thousand Words turning for home and Honor A.P. joined in on their outside. Thousand Words kept on finding in the stretch to maintaining a safe margin on his pricey barnmate all the way to the line. Honor A.P. re-rallied in the final strides to be second, finishing 3/4 of a length behind Thousand Words and a half-length ahead of Cezanne.

Opening his account with a trio of wins, including the GII Los Alamitos Futurity S. and GIII Robert B. Lewis S., Thousand Words checked in fourth behind recent GI Haskell Invitational S. winner and stablemate Authentic (Into Mischief) and Honor A.P. in the GII San Felipe S. at Santa Anita Mar. 7. A well-beaten 11th in the Oaklawn S. Apr. 11, the $1-million KEESEP buy was given a brief freshening and finished second in the GIII Los Alamitos Derby July 4 behind his barnmate and ‘TDN Rising Star’ Uncle Chuck (Uncle Mo), who was scratched from this test in favor of next week’s GI Travers S.

Pedigree Notes:

Thousand Words is out of MGSW & MGISP Pomeroy’s Pistol, who was purchased by bloodstock agent Mike Ryan earlier this year at the Keeneland January Sale for $475,000. Her 2018 foal by Pioneerof the Nile was born dead and she produced a Hard Spun colt last year. The 12-year-old mare was bred back to the late Arrogate last spring, but has no reported foal for 2020.

Saturday, Del Mar
SHARED BELIEF S., $98,000, Del Mar, 8-1, 3yo, 1 1/16m, 1:43.85, ft.
1–THOUSAND WORDS, 124, c, 3, by Pioneerof the Nile
1st Dam: Pomeroys Pistol (MGSW & MGISP, $574,678), by Pomeroy
2nd Dam: Prettyatthetable, by Point Given
3rd Dam: Swearingen, by Deposit Ticket
($1,000,000 Ylg ’18 KEESEP). O-Albaugh Family Stables LLC &
Spendthrift Farm LLC; B-Hardacre Farm (FL); T-Bob Baffert;
J-Abel Cedillo. $60,000. Lifetime Record: MGSW, 7-4-1-0,
$327,000.
2–Honor A. P., 124, r, 3, Honor Code–Hollywood Story, by Wild
Rush. ($850,000 Ylg ’18 FTSAUG). O-C R K Stable LLC; B-George
Krikorian (KY); T-John A. Shirreffs. $20,000.
3–Kiss Today Goodbye, 118, c, 3, Cairo Prince–Savvy Hester, by
Heatseeker (Ire). ($150,000 Ylg ’18 KEEJAN). O-John
Sondereker; B-Debmar Stables (KY); T-J. Eric Kruljac. $12,000.
Margins: 3/4, HF, NK. Odds: 9.20, 0.20, 34.40.
Also Ran: Cezanne. Scratched: Anneau d’Or, Uncle Chuck.
Click for the Equibase.com chart or VIDEO, sponsored by Fasig-Tipton.

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