Jack Richards Novices’ Limited Handicap Chase (Grade 2) Stats
The going is Good to Soft, which on the New Course usually requires a horse with a blend of high-end cruising speed and proven stamina over the 2 miles and 4 furlongs trip.
The 12-Year Trends: Golden Miller Novices’ Chase
Age: 11 of the last 12 winners were aged 6 or 7.
Grade 1 Form: 10 of the last 12 winners had already run in a Grade 1 or Grade 2 chase.
Rating: 10 of the last 12 winners were rated 146 or higher (Official Rating).
Course Form: 8 of the last 12 winners had previously run at Cheltenham.
Season Form: 9 of the last 12 winners won on their last start before the Festival.
Jumping: Efficiency is key; 11 of the last 12 winners had no more than 4 starts over fences (the “unexposed” factor).
Runner Analysis & Order of Preference
1. Sixmilebridge (NR: 166.7)
The Verdict: He is the “perfect” trend horse for 2026. Aged 7, he sits exactly in the preferred age bracket. His Neural Rating of 166.7 is significantly clear of the field, suggesting he is a Grade 1 horse running in a Limited Handicap. He has the required “unexposed” profile with only 3 chase starts and won emphatically last time out.
Trend Score: 10/10
2. The Bluesman (NR: 111.0)
The Verdict: A classic “Skelton” type improver. While his NR is lower than the top selection, he meets the criteria for having won his last start and possessing a rating that puts him in the high 140s/low 150s bracket. He handles Good to Soft ground and has the high jumping index (7.0) needed for the New Course.
Trend Score: 9/10
3. Stencil (NR: 83.7)
The Verdict: A highly consistent novice who has run in Graded company this season. He fits the trend for having a previous run at Cheltenham (Course Factor: 13). His NR of 83.7 is solid for this grade, though he may find the top two a little too well-handicapped.
Trend Score: 8/10
4. Western Knight (NR: 82.8)
The Verdict: He meets the age trend (7) and the season-form trend. His speed figures suggest he is best suited to 2 miles 4 furlongs on Good to Soft. He is a very efficient jumper (Jump Factor: 9), which is vital for maintaining position during the middle part of this race.
Trend Score: 8/10
5. Gold Dancer (NR: 78.3)
The Verdict: Trained by Willie Mullins, which is always a trend positive. However, his NR of 78.3 suggests he has a bit to find with the likes of Sixmilebridge. He is slightly more exposed than the typical winner of this race but cannot be discounted for a place.
Trend Score: 7/10
6. Jordans Cross (NR: 76.3)
The Verdict: A solid 6-year-old who fits the age profile. He is a strong traveller but the trends suggest that winners of this race usually possess a slightly higher “Class” (CP) factor than he currently shows.
Trend Score: 6/10
7. Slade Steel (NR: 75.0)
The Verdict: Winner of the Supreme in 2024, but his transition to fences has seen his rating stabilize rather than soar. While he has the “Cheltenham Factor,” the last 12 years suggest that horses who have become slightly “exposed” over fences find it harder to win this.
Trend Score: 5/10
8. Regent’s Stroll (NR: 71.8)
The Verdict: A promising type but his NR of 71.8 indicates he may be a year away from his peak for this specific championship race. He lacks the Grade 1/2 experience that 10 of the last 12 winners possessed.
Trend Score: 4/10
Final Selection Summary
1. Sixmilebridge (Clear Class & Trend Standout)
2. The Bluesman (The Improving Danger)
3. Stencil (The Course Specialist)
4. Western Knight (The Jumping Efficiency Play)
