Improbable notched his second consecutive Grade 1 on Saturday, taking advantage of a bad stumble at the start by favorite Tom's d'Etat to win the $750,000 Whitney Stakes at Saratoga in Saratoga Springs, N.Y.
Under Irad Ortiz, Jr., the 4-year-old City Zip colt sat off pacesetter Mr. Buff, took took command into the stretch and won easily by about two lengths over By My Standards. After his bad start, Tom's d'Etat rallied to be third, with Code of Honor and Mr. Buff rounding out the field of five.
Improbable, trained by Bob Baffert and owned by WinStar Farm, China Horse Club and SF Racing, covered 1 1/8 miles on a fast track in 1:48.65 and paid $8.50 for the win — his sixth in 13 career starts. A G1 winner at two of the Los Alamitos Futurity, Improbable was the beaten favorite in both the Kentucky Derby and Preakness in 2019, concluding his year with a fifth-place finish behind Spun to Run in the G1 Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile.
He came back in 2020 with a close second behind Tom's d'Etat in the Oaklawn Mile and then returned to Southern California to win the G1 Hollywood Gold Cup at Santa Anita on June 6.
Plagued by gate problems throughout his career, Improbable was fractious while waiting for the gates to open but broke smoothly. Tom's d'Etat, however, went to his knees at the start under Joel Rosario and was several lengths behind the field by the time he recovered.
Mr. Buff led the way through slow fractions of :25.12, :49.74 and 1:13.36, with Improbable his closest pursuer in the run down the backstretch. Tom's d'Etat trailed.
Approaching the far turn, Ortiz asked Improbable for run, and the colt responded. He led into the stretch, the mile in 1:36.53 and was geared down in the final yards.
Produced from the A.P. Indy mare, Rare Event, Improbable was bred in Kentucky by St George Farm LLC and G. Watts Humphrey Jr.
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