Leopardstown The Christmas Hurdle (Grade 1) 13.55 UK Time.
Leopardstown features the Christmas Hurdle, a Grade 1 event over approximately three miles on yielding ground.
Ballyburn brings top-class ability into this contest.
His most recent outing was a nose defeat to Teahupoo in the Hatton’s Grace Hurdle at Fairyhouse on yielding to soft ground.
That performance came after a lengthy absence, suggesting he will strip fitter here.
He remains unbeaten at Leopardstown with three successes, including a Grade 1 novice chase over shorter.
He acts well on yielding conditions and possesses the stamina for this trip based on prior chase efforts.
Teahupoo enters with strong current form after narrowly defeating Ballyburn in the Hatton’s Grace.
He has a proven record in staying hurdles, winning the Punchestown Champion Stayers Hurdle on yielding ground.
Although he excels on softer surfaces, he copes adequately with yielding.
This is his first start at Leopardstown, but his experience in high-class races makes him a major player.
His fitness is optimal following that recent victory.
Home By The Lee has a positive history in this race, having won it last year on yielding ground.
He has two victories from five starts at Leopardstown, showing he likes the track.
However, his latest run was a below-par sixth in the Punchestown Champion Stayers Hurdle in May.
The long layoff raises questions about his current fitness, though he has performed well fresh in the past.
His handicap rating reflects solid staying ability, but recent form is a concern.
Bob Olinger demonstrated his class by winning the Stayers Hurdle at Cheltenham in March on good to soft ground.
He finished second in this race last year, beaten six lengths.
He has placed in one of three Leopardstown outings.
The extended absence since March could mean he needs this run to reach peak condition.
He handles yielding ground based on previous performances.
Mystical Power unseated his rider early in the Hatton’s Grace last month.
His form in recent Grade 1 hurdles has been disappointing, including a pull-up at Cheltenham in March.
He won a Grade 1 novice hurdle at Punchestown on yielding ground.
Fitness is not an issue after the recent run, but he needs to prove himself at this level.
He has shown ability over shorter trips but stamina for three miles is unproven.
The Yellow Clay ran a solid second in a Grade 2 hurdle at Navan last month on soft to heavy ground.
He has strong novice form, including a close second in a Grade 1 at Cheltenham.
He has one win from two starts at Leopardstown.
He acts on yielding conditions and arrives fit from recent racing.
His handicap rating suggests he is improving, with experience in staying contests.
Rocky’s Diamond finished fourth in a Grade 2 novice chase at Punchestown last month on soft to heavy.
He has placed in one Leopardstown run.
He showed staying potential when fourth in the Cheltenham Stayers Hurdle.
He handles yielding ground and comes in fit, but this represents a step up in class.
His recent chase form indicates he is in decent nick.
Jetara placed third in a Grade 2 hurdle at Navan last month on soft to heavy.
She was third in the Punchestown Champion Stayers Hurdle on yielding.
She has one win from four Leopardstown starts.
She performs on yielding and arrives fit.
Her handicap rating is respectable for a mare receiving weight, but she faces tough opposition.
Simulation Results:
Percentage chances: Ballyburn 45.6%, Teahupoo 34.3%, The Yellow Clay 5.4%, Home By The Lee 5.4%, Bob Olinger 4.7%, Rocky’s Diamond 1.9%, Mystical Power 1.7%, Jetara 1.0%.
Equivalent fractional odds: Ballyburn 6/5, Teahupoo 19/10, The Yellow Clay 17/1, Home By The Lee 17/1, Bob Olinger 20/1, Rocky’s Diamond 50/1, Mystical Power 57/1, Jetara 99/1.
Best bet: Ballyburn.
Value selections: Ballyburn and Teahupoo.
Steamer bet: Mystical Power.
Trends based on last 12 years:
Ballyburn fits the age bracket at seven years old.
He is the market favourite, aligning with eight of the last 12 winners.
He did not win his last run but placed second in the Hatton’s Grace Hurdle, which six of the last 12 winners contested, with five either winning or placing.
He ran 28 days ago, within the 48-day window for 11 of 12 winners.
He has three previous runs at Leopardstown, all wins, exceeding the trend for at least one run and one win.
He lacks runs over 23-25 furlongs, so does not match that aspect.
He has five hurdle runs and four wins, falling short of seven runs but meeting three wins.
His rating is over 150.
He has graded wins, including Grade 1 races.
He has one run this season, no win, missing the trends for two runs and one win.
Teahupoo is eight years old, outside the 5-7 age range for 11 of 12 winners.
He is in the top three in betting.
He won his last run, the Hatton’s Grace Hurdle, matching nine winners who won last time out.
He ran 28 days ago.
He contested the Hatton’s Grace and won it.
This is his first run at Leopardstown, so no previous course form.
He has multiple runs and wins over 23-25 furlongs.
He has 17 hurdle runs and 11 wins.
His rating exceeds 150.
He has multiple graded wins, including Grade 1.
He has one run this season with one win.
Home By The Lee is ten years old, outside the preferred age.
He is not in the top three in betting.
He won his last run.
He ran 42 days ago.
He did not contest the Hatton’s Grace.
He has five previous runs at Leopardstown with two wins.
He has runs and wins over 23-25 furlongs.
He has 18 hurdle runs and nine wins.
His rating is over 150.
He has graded wins.
He has one run this season with one win.
Mystical Power is six years old.
He is not in the top three in betting.
He did not win his last run, unseating in the Hatton’s Grace.
He ran 28 days ago.
He contested the Hatton’s Grace but did not finish.
He has previous runs at Leopardstown but no wins.
He lacks experience over 23-25 furlongs.
He has six hurdle runs and three wins.
His rating is around 150.
He has graded wins.
He has one run this season, no win.
Bob Olinger is ten years old.
He is joint third in betting.
He did not win his last run, placing second.
He ran 42 days ago.
He did not contest the Hatton’s Grace.
He has three previous runs at Leopardstown with no wins.
He has runs and wins over 23-25 furlongs.
He has 12 hurdle runs and five wins.
His rating exceeds 150.
He has graded wins.
He has one run this season, no win.
Jetara is seven years old.
She is not in the top three in betting.
She did not win her last run, placing third.
She ran within 48 days.
She did not contest the Hatton’s Grace.
She has four previous runs at Leopardstown with one win.
She has runs and wins over 23-25 furlongs.
She has at least seven hurdle runs and four wins.
Her rating is 145, below 150.
She has graded wins.
She has at least two runs this season with one win.
The Yellow Clay is six years old.
He is joint third in betting.
He did not win his last run, placing second.
He ran within 48 days.
He did not contest the Hatton’s Grace.
He has two previous runs at Leopardstown with one win.
He has runs over 23-25 furlongs but no wins.
He has three hurdle runs and three wins.
His rating is over 150.
He has graded wins.
He has at least two runs this season with one win.
Rocky’s Diamond is five years old.
He is not in the top three in betting.
He won his last run.
He ran within 48 days.
He did not contest the Hatton’s Grace.
He has one previous run at Leopardstown, no win.
He has runs and wins over 23-25 furlongs.
He has four hurdle runs and two wins.
His rating is 130, below 150.
He has no graded wins.
He has at least two runs this season with wins.
Based on matching the trends, the order of preference is: Teahupoo, Home By The Lee, Jetara, The Yellow Clay, Ballyburn, Bob Olinger, Rocky’s Diamond, Mystical Power.
