Category: Horse Racing Free Tips

JCB Triumph Hurdle Grade 1 Stats

JCB Triumph Hurdle (Grade 1) Stats

Key 12-Year Trends (2014–2025)

The Irish Stronghold: Irish-trained horses have won 7 of the last 10 renewals.
The Mullins/Elliott Grip: Willie Mullins (4 wins) and Gordon Elliott (2 wins) dominate the profile.
Last Time Out: 10 of the last 12 winners won their previous start.
Graded Form: 11 of the last 12 winners had won a Graded hurdle previously.
Market Position: 9 of the last 12 winners were in the top three of the betting.
Flat Background: High-class flat performers (rated 90+) have a strong strike rate on “Good” ground.

Runner Analysis & Preference List

1. Maestro Conti (Trainer: Willie Mullins | Jockey: Paul Townend)

Trends Fit: 10/10. He ticks every box for a prototypical Triumph winner. Unbeaten in two starts in Ireland, including a Grade 1 at Leopardstown last month. He was a high-class flat horse in France and, crucially, his action suggests he will thrive on the drying “Good” ground.
Verdict: The clear statistical leader. Representing the most successful yard in the race’s recent history and coming in off a win.

2. One Horse Town (Trainer: Gordon Elliott | Jockey: Jack Kennedy)

Trends Fit: 9/10. A very close second in terms of profile. Winner of a Grade 2 at Fairyhouse, he is a stout stayer who would perhaps prefer a softer surface, but his “never-say-die” attitude fits the trend of Elliott-trained juveniles who out-battle rivals up the Cheltenham hill.
Verdict: The primary challenger. If the pace is overly strong, his stamina will be a massive asset.

3. Highland Crystal (Trainer: Dan Skelton | Jockey: Harry Skelton)

Trends Fit: 7/10. The best of the British. She is a prolific winner this season (4 from 4) but hasn’t faced the same level of opposition as the top Irish pair. However, the Skelton yard is excellent at target-training, and she meets the trend of being a last-time-out winner.
Verdict: A major threat if the Irish leaders underperform. Her slick jumping is a major plus on faster ground.

4. Selma De Vary (Trainer: Willie Mullins | Jockey: Danny Mullins)

Trends Fit: 7/10. Often the “second-string” Mullins horse performs well in this race (e.g., Burning Victory). She was second to Maestro Conti last time. While she fails the “must have won last time out” trend, she is highly rated and the yard’s dominance cannot be ignored.
Verdict: A very strong each-way candidate who could easily reverse form with the favourite if he finds the occasion too much.

5. Fantasy World (Trainer: Joseph O’Brien | Jockey: J. J. Slevin)

Trends Fit: 6/10. Joseph O’Brien has a great record in this race (Ivanovich Gorbatov). This horse was a 100-rated flat performer. He hasn’t won a Graded hurdle yet, which is a negative trend, but his flat speed is perfectly suited to a “Good” ground Triumph Hurdle.
Verdict: The “dark horse” of the race. Statistically slightly behind on hurdle experience, but a danger on the ground.

6. Proactif (Trainer: Gordon Elliott | Jockey: Sam Ewing)

Trends Fit: 5/10. A consistent type but has been held by Maestro Conti and One Horse Town already this season. He lacks the “Grade 1 engine” seen in the last 12 winners.
Verdict: Likely to finish in the middle of the pack; hard to see him winning based on previous speed ratings.

7. Minella Study (Trainer: Henry de Bromhead | Jockey: Rachael Blackmore)

Trends Fit: 4/10. Only one run over hurdles (a maiden win). 11 of the last 12 winners had at least two runs over hurdles. He is likely too inexperienced for the helter-skelter nature of a Triumph.
Verdict: One for the future, but trends suggest this comes too soon.

 

Order of Preference

1. Maestro Conti (The statistical standout; unbeaten and top-tier yard)
2. One Horse Town (Strongest Graded form and Elliott’s primary hope)
3. Highland Crystal (Leading British contender with perfect winning sequence)
4. Selma De Vary (High-class Mullins second-string with Graded experience)
5. Fantasy World (Flat speed makes him the danger on “Good” ground)
6. Proactif
7. Minella Study

Cheltenham Top Rated Horses Friday 13th March

Cheltenham Top Rated Horses Friday 13th March

13:20

MAESTRO CONTI  18.49
ONE HORSE TOWN  14.74
HIGHLAND CRYSTAL  14.60
SELMA DE VARY  13.03
FANTASY WORLD  11.88
PROACTIF  6.02
MINELLA STUDY  5.06
KAI LUNG  4.48
TENTER LE TOUT  4.29
LORD BYRON  4.28
APOLON DE CHARNIE  4.18
MACHO MAN  3.56
INDIAN RIVER  3.41
NORTH SHORE  3.40
MON CREUSET  2.80
NOEMIE DE LA VIS  2.24
MINELLA ACADEMY  1.89
FORTY FIFTY  1.75
BERTO RAMIREZ  1.30
WOLF RAYET  0.95

14:00

SINNATRA  21.71
KARBAU  20.03
JUBILEE ALPHA  12.31
ABSURDE  12.05
HAMLET’S NIGHT  10.00
BOWENSONFIRE  8.89
SECRET SQUIRREL  5.02
OOH BETTY  4.25
JOYEUSE  4.21
STICKTOTHEPLAN  4.01
NDAAWI  3.86
TRIPOLI FLYER  3.29
WILFUL  3.13
MURCIA  2.59
GIBBS ISLAND  2.49
CRACKING RHAPSODY  2.01
HELVIC DREAM  1.79
WILLIETHEBUILDER  1.79
HELLO NEIGHBOUR  1.36
PINOT GRIS  1.18
SIXANDAHALF  1.16
TELLHERTHENAME  1.04
BALKO D’ANGE  0.68
BOWMORE  0.33

14:40

DINOBLUE  74.30
SPINDLEBERRY  11.61
PANIC ATTACK  8.63
DIVA LUNA  7.23
JULY FLOWER  7.04
PIPER PARK  4.54
TELEPATHIQUE  3.63
ONLY BY NIGHT  3.28
ALL THE GLORY  2.44

15:20

DOCTOR STEINBERG  42.90
THEDEVILUNO  12.31
PARK PRINCESS  11.66
MONDOUI’BOY  6.51
KAZANSKY  5.60
KRIPTICJIM  5.66
SPINNINGAYARN  5.62
UBATUBA  5.40
ESPRESSO MILAN  4.88
JALON D’OUDAIRIES  4.86
JOHNNY’S JURY  4.86
THE PASSING WIFE  4.18
MONEYGARROW  3.90
KICOUR LA  3.37
HIPOP DE LOIRE  3.14
SWINDON VILLAGE  3.09
DOCTOR DU MESNIL  2.70
TACKLETOMMYWOOWOO  2.50
THE PRICE OF PEACE  2.38
KING’S BUCKS  2.14
ROAD EXILE  1.51
FRUIT DE MER  1.04

16:00

GAELIC WARRIOR  22.41
HAITI COULEURS  18.50
L’HOMME PRESSE 13.06
GREY DAWNING  11.74
JANGO BAIE  10.86
INOTHEWAYURTHINKIN  9.85
ENVOI ALLEN  8.12
THE JUKEBOX MAN  7.03
SPILLANE’S TOWER  6.14
GOLD TWEET  5.49
FIREFOX  4.62

16:40

STATTLER  20.96
ITS ON THE LINE 18.87
PANDA BOY  15.57
BARTON SNOW  10.08
PYLEIGH COURT  9.93
MUSIC DRIVE  6.35
SHEARER  5.87
PAUL MARVEL  5.54
GOLDEN SON  4.92
GRACCHUS DE BALME  4.94
WONDERWALL  4.24
WHAT A GLANCE  4.24
CHEMICAL ENERGY  4.06
WILLITGOAHEAD  3.90
SOLITARY MAN  3.84
LIFT ME UP  3.74
LINELEE KING  3.51
CON’S ROC  3.26
TAKE ALL  2.58
WILLEWONGA  2.21
KINGS JET  1.46
CARNFUNNOCK  1.41
WRAPPEDUPINMAY  1.04
KING ALEX  0.98

17:20

OPEN SECRET  19.25
FIERCELY PROUD  13.33
SAINT LE FORT  12.87
SA FUREUR  9.98
STEDE BONNET  9.96
NURSE SUSAN  9.66
AIR OF ENTITLEMENT  7.15
EAST INDIA EXPRESS  7.00
JUMP ALLEN  5.94
HOT FUSS  5.63
ZILLOW  5.18
ACT OF AUTHORITY  4.80
INTELLOTTO  4.78
KEL HISTOIRE  4.30
FARFROMNOWHERE  4.26
CHARLUS  4.08
ROC DINO  3.49
SAINTE LUCIE  3.36
ANDASHAN  3.28
DA CAPO GLORY  3.02
ITS BILBO  2.61
KARL DES TOURELLES  2.46
WENDROCK  2.10
BALLYKINLAR  0.92

Close Brothers Mares Hurdle Stats

Close Brothers Mares’ Hurdle (Grade 1) Stats

The following analysis uses the primary trends from the last 12 years (2014–2025) to evaluate the 2026 contenders.

Key 12-Year Trends (2014–2025)

Irish Dominance: 10 of the last 12 winners were trained in Ireland.
The Mullins Factor: Willie Mullins has won 11 renewals in total (5 in the last 10 years).
Official Rating: 9 of the last 12 winners were rated 150 or higher.
Age Profile: 10 of the last 12 winners were aged between 5 and 7.
Last Time Out: 9 of the last 12 winners won or finished 2nd on their previous start.
Market Strength: 9 of the last 12 winners were returned at 6/1 or shorter.

Runner Analysis & Preference List

1. Wodhooh (Trainer: Gordon Elliott | Jockey: Jack Kennedy)

Trends Fit: 10/10. The 6-year-old Irish mare is the highest-rated in the field (154) and fits every major trend. She is a previous Festival winner (2025 Martin Pipe) and has won 9 of her 10 starts over hurdles. Her only defeat came against the absent superstar Lossiemouth.
Verdict: She is the “statistically perfect” horse for this race. Her tactical versatility and Course & Distance (C&D) winning form make her the one to beat.

2. Jade De Grugy (Trainer: Willie Mullins | Jockey: Paul Townend)

Trends Fit: 9/10. Representing the most successful trainer in the race’s history. She was 2nd in this race last year (behind Lossiemouth) and is rated 150. While she has spent this season over fences, the trend of high-class mares reverting from chasing to win this race is well-established (e.g., Benie Des Dieux).
Verdict: The clear danger. As the sole representative of the Mullins yard, historical stats suggest she will be peak-fit and highly competitive on drying ground.

3. Feet Of A Dancer (Trainer: Paul Nolan | Jockey: Sean O’Keeffe)

Trends Fit: 7/10. An Irish-trained 7-year-old who won her last start (Grade 2 at Doncaster). However, she is rated 141, which is significantly lower than the typical winner’s profile of 150+. She was also beaten by Wodhooh earlier this season.
Verdict: A solid each-way contender who rarely runs a bad race but may lack the “Grade 1 engine” required to trouble the top two.

4. Take No Chances (Trainer: Dan Skelton | Jockey: Harry Skelton)

Trends Fit: 6/10. The leading British hope. She was 3rd in this race last year and is an 8-year-old, placing her just outside the ideal 5–7 age bracket. While consistent, her current rating of 145 suggests she needs a career-best performance.
Verdict: Consistent place prospect but historical stats favour the younger Irish-trained mares for the top spot.

5. Jetara (Trainer: Mrs John Harrington | Jockey: Sam Ewing)

Trends Fit: 5/10. An 8-year-old who has struggled for a win this season (0 from 4). Although Irish-trained and 4th in this race last year, she hasn’t shown the progression needed to bridge the gap to the 150-rated rivals.
Verdict: Likely to battle for minor honours but faces an uphill task to win.

6. Dream On Baby (Trainer: Emmet Mullins | Jockey: Donagh Meyler)

Trends Fit: 4/10. A 6-year-old rated 139. While she is Irish-trained and won a Listed race at Kempton in November, she has been comfortably beaten by both Wodhooh and Feet Of A Dancer in subsequent starts.
Verdict: Improvement required; stats suggest she is outclassed here.

7. Sunset Marquesa (Trainer: Joe Tizzard | Jockey: Brendan Powell)

Trends Fit: 2/10. A British-trained outsider rated 129. She fails to meet the ratings, trainer, or form trends associated with winners of this Grade 1 contest.
Verdict: The rank outsider with significant ground to make up on the principals.

 

Order of Preference

1. Wodhooh (Strongest trend match and class leader)
2. Jade De Grugy (The “Mullins Factor” and proven C&D form)
3. Feet Of A Dancer (Best of the rest with upward momentum)
4. Take No Chances (Reliable place candidate)
5. Jetara
6. Dream On Baby
7. Sunset Marquesa

Ryanair Chase Grade 1 Stats

Ryanair Chase (Grade 1) Stats

The going is Good to Soft, which on the New Course over 2 miles and 4 furlongs typically plays into the hands of a horse with “speed-stamina” versatility—those who find 2 miles too sharp but 3 miles a fraction too far.

The 12-Year Trends: Ryanair Chase

Age: 11 of the last 12 winners were aged between 7 and 9.
Class/Rating: 12 out of the last 12 winners were rated 161 or higher. This is strictly a race for established elite chasers.
Cheltenham Factor: 11 of the last 12 winners had previously run at the Cheltenham Festival, and 9 of those had already won at the track.
Grade 1 Form: 11 of the last 12 winners had a Grade 1 victory already on their CV.
Season Form: 10 of the last 12 winners had run at least twice earlier that season.
The “Mullins/Nicholls” Grip: These two trainers have accounted for 6 of the last 12 winners.

 

Runner Analysis & Order of Preference

1. Fact To File (Age: 7 | NR: 185.5)

The Verdict: He is the quintessential Ryanair horse. At 7 years old, he is in the peak age bracket. He is already a Festival winner (2024 Brown Advisory) and his Neural Rating of 185.5 is the highest recorded in this division for three years. He fits the “Course Winner” and “Grade 1 Winner” trends perfectly. His tactical speed on Good to Soft ground is arguably his greatest weapon.
Trend Score: 10/10

2. Jonbon (Age: 12 | NR: 152.0)

The Verdict: A high-class operator, but he is now moving into the “veteran” category at age 12. Only one horse in the last 12 years has won this aged older than 9 (Envoi Allen at 9, and Frodon at 7). While his NR is strong and his class is undeniable, history suggests he may struggle to hold off a younger, peaking improver like Fact To File.
Trend Score: 8/10 (Age is a significant trend negative).

3. Impaire Et Passe (Age: 8 | NR: 108.2)

The Verdict: He fits the age trend (8) and the “Mullins-trained” trend. He has a Festival win to his name (Baring Bingham) and has the cruising speed for 2.5 miles. While his NR in chasing is lower than Jonbon’s, his trend profile for this specific race is arguably cleaner as an 8-year-old “bridger” of distances.
Trend Score: 9/10

4. Banbridge (Age: 10 | NR: 66.3)

The Verdict: A specialist on Good to Soft/Good ground. He skipped the race in previous years due to soft ground, so conditions are finally in his favour. However, at age 10, he is just outside the preferred age bracket. His jumping is his main asset, but his NR suggests he lacks the “X-factor” speed of the favourite.
Trend Score: 7/10

5. Matata (Age: 7 | NR: 72.3)

The Verdict: A bold, front-running type who fits the age profile. He will likely lead the field and test the jumping of others. However, he lacks the Grade 1 win trend (11 of the last 12 winners had one) and his rating suggests he is a high-end handicapper rather than a genuine Ryanair king.
Trend Score: 6/10

6. Master Chewy (Age: 9 | NR: 64.7)

The Verdict: A consistent performer in Grade 1 company this year, but he has become somewhat “exposed.” He fits the age profile but lacks the “Season Win” trend that 10 of the last 12 winners possessed.
Trend Score: 5/10

7. JPR One (Age: 9 | NR: 59.8)

The Verdict: Similar to Master Chewy, he is a solid Grade 2/3 horse who has struggled to make the breakthrough at the top level. He fits the age and course-experience trends but fails the “Rating 161+” class threshold.
Trend Score: 4/10

8. Heart Wood (Age: 8 | NR: 55.7)

The Verdict: Winner of the Leopardstown Handicap Chase in 2024, but his transition to Grade 1 level has been steady rather than spectacular. He is the right age, but lacks the “Grade 1 Winner” trend.
Trend Score: 4/10

9. Croke Park (Age: 8 | NR: 64.3)

The Verdict: Likely to find this trip a bit of a “sprint” against specialists. He fits the age profile but lacks the tactical speed seen in previous winners like Allaho or Un De Sceaux.
Trend Score: 3/10

 

Final Selection Summary

1. Fact To File (The standout trend and statistical selection)
2. Impaire Et Passe (The “Mullins” alternative)
3. Jonbon (The class play, despite age concerns)
4. Banbridge (The ground specialist)

 

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