Golden Miller Novices Chase Cheltenham Thursday 14th March
The Golden Miller Novices’ Chase, known as the Turners Novices’ Chase since 2022, is a Grade 1 race at the Cheltenham Festival that has become a notable event for 5-year-old and older novice chasers. The race, named after the legendary five-time Cheltenham Gold Cup winner Golden Miller, offers a unique challenge over 2 miles and 4 furlongs on the New Course at Cheltenham. Here’s a summary of the key trends that have emerged for the winners of this race:
Training and Origin:
A significant number of winners, 9 out of the last 12, were trained in Ireland, highlighting the strength of Irish training in producing top novice chasers.
Age:
The prime age for winners seems to be 6 or 7, with 11 out of the last 12 winners falling within this age range.
Betting Odds:
Favourites have a decent record, with 4 out of the last 12 winners being favourites or joint favourites.
Additionally, 10 out of the last 12 winners were in the top 3 in the betting, indicating that the market is often a good predictor of the race outcome.
Recent Form:
The last run is crucial, with 10 of the last 12 winners having won their last race before the Turners Novices Chase, and 9 of the 12 winners having raced within the last 54 days.
Course Experience:
All of the last 12 winners had at least one previous run at Cheltenham, and 9 had at least one previous win at the course, suggesting that prior experience at Cheltenham is beneficial.
Distance Form:
Most winners have had experience over the race distance, with 11 out of the last 12 winners having at least 2 previous runs over 19-21 furlongs, and 10 having at least one previous win over this distance.
Hurdle Form:
A strong track record over hurdles is also key, with all winners having at least 3 runs over hurdles, and 9 out of the last 12 winners having at least 3 wins over hurdles.
Chase Form:
Previous chase experience is important, with 10 out of the last 12 winners having at least 3 previous chase runs, and 11 winners having at least 2 previous chase wins.
Rating:
A high rating is indicative of a horse’s potential, with 11 out of the last 12 winners being rated 146 or higher.
Graded Wins:
Success in graded races is common among winners, with 10 out of the last 12 winners having at least one win in a grade 1 or 2 race.
Season Form:
Consistent performance throughout the season is important, with all winners having at least 2 runs that season, and 11 out of the last 12 winners having at least 2 wins that season.
