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Equibase Analysis: Authentic Out For Redemption In Grade 1 Haskell

This year's Grade 1, $1 million TVG.com Haskell Stakes is both a “Road to the Derby” points race and a “Win and You're In” race for the Breeders' Cup Classic, so extra attention is warranted. Seven 3-year-old colts are expected to line up, led by multiple stakes winner Authentic, who suffered the first defeat of his career last month when second in the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby after victories in both the Grade 3 Sham Stakes in January and Grade 2 San Felipe Stakes in March.

His biggest opponent appears to be Dr Post, an improving colt who won the Unbridled Stakes in April before a runner-up finish behind division leader Tiz the Law in the Grade 1 Belmont Stakes last month. Lebda is another with credentials in the division having won the Miracle Wood Stakes and Private Terms Stakes in February and March, respectively, before a sixth place effort in the Grade 3 Ohio Derby last month.

Ny Traffic enters the race off back-to-back runner-up efforts in similar races in the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby in March and then in the Grade 3 Matt Winn Stakes in May. Ancient Warrior and Jesus' Team are two horses that are trying stakes competition for the first time, while Fame to Famous has finished no better than third in three stakes tries to date and only one on dirt, in which he finished last of 11.

Dr Post appears capable of posting the very mild upset over betting favorite Authentic in this year's TVG.com Haskell Stakes. Two races back in his third career start, Dr Post tried two-turns for the first time in the Unbridled Stakes and won very professionally, earning a career-best 101 Equibase Speed Figure. Stretching out to the distance of the Haskell last month in the Belmont Stakes, Dr Post closed from sixth in the early stages to second but was no match for Tiz the Law. Considering no horse has been a match for Tiz the Law in months, I think that effort is akin to running a winning race. The new career-best 107 figure was significant as well, as it was higher than the 105 and 101 figures Authentic earned in his two most recent starts. While the figures Authentic has earned are on a declining pattern, Dr Post is on an improving pattern and that is why he should win the Haskell.

Ancient Warrior is my longshot play to possibly split the two betting favorites, Authentic and Dr Post, by finishing second, although a huge upset win isn't totally out of the question. Ancient Warrior stretches out to a route for the first time while making his second start after a three month rest. He earned a 92 figure in his prep race and a career-best 100 figure last fall in his first start. Although he has never raced in a stakes, Ancient Warrior has the class in his pedigree to contend here as he is by the sire Constitution, whose first 3-year-olds are on the track this year. Constitution is the sire of three horses which have made their mark in the division at some point since last fall – Independence Hall, Gouverneur Morris and, most importantly, “Road to the Derby” points leader Tiz the Law. Stretching out from six and one-half furlongs to this mile and one-eighth trip while stepping into stakes company for the first time may be a tall order, but considering Jerry Hollendorfer trains Ancient Warrior I have some confidence in the move. Hollendorfer has saddled 13 grade 1 stakes winners to victory in route races over the past five years and he believes the colt has what it takes to run well, I won't argue.

Authentic is trainer Bob Baffert's #1 Kentucky Derby prospect as he is tied for third on the “Road to the Derby” points leaderboard with 100 points. Authentic won the first three starts of his career, earning a career-best 113 figure in the Sham Stakes in January before a 105 figure effort in the San Felipe Stakes. Stretching out to the distance of the Haskell for the Santa Anita Derby last month, Authentic was no match for winner Honor A.P. and regressed again in terms of how fast he ran, to a 101 figure. It does appear as the distances are getting longer, Authentic is not running as fast, and that may be due to his breeding. According to STATS Race Lens, although sire Into Mischief has produced many stakes winners, the record of his sons and daughters at distances of nine to 10 furlongs in stakes on dirt is just four-for-58 in the last five years. It must be noted, however, that record includes two very good three year old colts – Audible (who won the Florida Derby) and Owendale (who won the Ohio Derby).

The rest of the field, with their best Equibase Speed Figures, is Fame to Famous (96), Jesus' Team (106), Lebda (91) and Ny Traffic (99).

Win Contenders:
Dr Post
Ancient Warrior
Authentic

TVG.com Haskell Stakes – Grade 1
Race 12 at Monmouth Park
Saturday, July 18 – Post Time 5:48 PM E.T.
One Mile and One Eighth
Three Years Old
Purse: $1 Million
T.V.: NBC 5 – 6 PM E.T.

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Saturday’s Cross Country Pick 5 To Feature Action From Saratoga, Monmouth, Woodbine

The New York Racing Association, Inc. (NYRA) will host an all-graded-stakes Cross Country Pick 5, featuring action from Saratoga Race Course, Monmouth Park and Woodbine Racetrack.

Live coverage of all the races in the sequence for the first Saturday of the Saratoga summer meet will be available with America's Day at the Races on FS1 and MSG+.

Free Equibase past performances for the Cross Country Pick 5 sequence are now available for download at https://www.nyra.com/saratoga/racing/cross-country-wagers.

Monmouth, located in Oceanport, New Jersey, will host the first two legs of the sequence, starting with the Grade 3, $300,000 Monmouth Cup for 3-year-olds and up going 1 1/8 miles in Race 10 at 4:40 p.m. Eastern. As part of the Grade 1 Haskell undercard, the Monmouth Cup will see Joevia, the 2019 Grade 1 Belmont Stakes third-place finisher, return to the track where he broke his maiden in July 2018 and also where he captured last year's Long Branch. The Gregg Sacco trainee will be part of a 10-horse field that includes Global Campaign, the 2019 Grade 3 Peter Pan winner at Belmont Park who also ran third in last year's Grade 2 Jim Dandy for trainer Stanley Hough.

The action will continue at Monmouth for the Grade 1, $300,000 United Nations in Race 11 at 5:12 p.m. The 1 3/8-mile turf route will see Current, the third-place finisher in the Grade 2 Kitten's Joy Pan American in March, as part of a nine-horse field. Current, the Todd Pletcher trainee who captured the 2018 Grade 3 Dixiana Bourbon, will go up against a field that includes Standard Deviation, who ran third in the Grade 1 Hollywood Derby in November at Del Mar for conditioner Graham Motion. Standard Deviation ran second this year in Qatar in the Group 1 H.H. The Amir Trophy.

An international flavor will be added to the Cross Country Pick 5 when it shifts to Woodbine for the Grade 2, $175,000 Royal North in Race 9 at 5:28 p.m. Summer Sunday, one of two entrants for trainer Stuart Simon, will look to repeat as winner in defending her 2019 victory. Summer Sunday was named Canada's champion female sprinter in 2019 and made her 5-year-old debut by running third in the Grade 3 Whimsical on June 21 at Woodbine. Simon will also saddle Sister Peacock in the six-furlong Royal North.

The penultimate leg will be Monmouth's signature race, the Grade 1, $1 million Haskell in Race 12 at 5:48 p.m. A “Win and You're In” qualifier to the Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Classic in November at Keeneland, the Haskell will also offer qualifying points to September's Grade 1 Kentucky Derby for the first time in history. The top four-finishers will receive 100-40-20-10 points towards the “Run for the Roses,” with seven sophomores competing at 1 1/8 miles.

Authentic, trained by Hall of Famer Bob Baffert, is the 4-5 morning-line favorite after starting his year with victories in the Grade 3 Sham and the Grade 2 San Felipe before running second in the Grade 1 Runhappy Santa Anita Derby on June 6. He will face a talented seven-horse field that includes the Pletcher trained Dr Post, who ran second to Tiz the Law in last month's Grade 1 Belmont Stakes. The rest of the field includes Jesus' Team, Ancient Warrior, Fame To Famous, Lebda and NY Traffic.

Historic Saratoga Race Course will conclude the sequence with the third Grade 1, offering the $350,000 Coaching Club American Oaks for 3-year-old fillies in Race 10 at 6:16 p.m. Offering 100-40-20-10 qualifying points to the Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks, the Coaching Club American Oaks will see multiple graded-stakes winner Tonalist's Shape, who boasts six wins from seven starts, sent out by trainer Saffie Joseph, Jr. Baffert will send out will send out Crystal Ball, who graduated last out by 6 ¼ lengths on June 14 in a 1 1/16-miles maiden at Santa Anita. Antoinette, Altaf, Velvet Crush and Paris Lights will also attempt the 1 ¼-mile test.

The minimum bet for the multi-track, multi-race wager is 50 cents. Wagering on the Cross Country Pick 5 is also available on ADW platforms and at simulcast facilities across the country. Every week will feature a mandatory payout of the net pool.

The Cross Country Pick 5 will continue each Saturday throughout the year. For more information, visit NYRABets.com.

Cross Country Pick 5 – Saturday, July 18:
Leg 1 – Monmouth, Race 10: Grade 3 Monmouth Park (4:40 p.m.)
Leg 2 – Monmouth, Race 11: Grade 1 United Nations (5:12 p.m.)
Leg 3 – Woodbine, Race 9: Grade 2 Royal North (5:28 p.m.)
Leg 4 – Monmouth, Race 12: Grade 1 Haskell (5:48 p.m.)
Leg 5 – Saratoga, Race 10: Grade 1 Coaching Club American Oaks (6:16 p.m.)

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Multiple Stakes-Winning Filly Hello Beautiful May ‘Take A Shot’ In Saratoga’s Test

All but one of eight career starts have come over her home track of Laurel Park, including a pair of juvenile stakes victories, but standout 3-year-old filly Hello Beautiful may hit the road for her next, and biggest, race yet.

Trainer Brittany Russell said Madaket Stables, Albert Frassetto, Mark Parkinson, K-Mac Stable and Magic City Stables' Hello Beautiful is under consideration for the seven-furlong Test (G1) Aug. 8 at Saratoga Race Course.

It would be the first time in graded company for Hello Beautiful, the highest-earning offspring of second-crop sire and multiple graded-stakes winner Golden Lad bred in Maryland by Ellen Charles' Hillwood Stable.

“It looks like we're going to take a look at the Test. It's going to depend on who comes. There's been some good fillies running the last few weeks and it's just going to kind of depend on where they go,” Russell said. “She's going to have the big test up there if we go. We'll nominate and take a look and if she's doing well we might take a shot up there.”

Hello Beautiful owns four wins, two seconds and a third for purse earnings of $199,360, having raced exclusively in Maryland since her unveiling last May at Pimlico Race Course. She captured the Maryland Million Lassie and Maryland Juvenile Filly Championship last fall at Laurel by a combined 15 ½ lengths.

The combination of a planned break and a 2 ½-month pause in live racing from mid-March to late May amid the coronavirus pandemic pushed Hello Beautiful's sophomore debut to a June 1 sprint over Laurel's world-class turf course, where she faded to seventh, her only time off the board. She rebounded with a front-running 8 ¼-length allowance romp 19 days later on a sloppy and sealed main track.

“She's certainly answered each question on the dirt for us, and that's what we have to stick with. She's a good dirt filly, and if she's going to be that kind she's going to have to run against good horses,” Russell said. “So there's no time like the present, as long as she's doing well.”

Hello Beautiful has had one timed work since her most recent race, a half-mile breeze in 49.40 seconds July 8. Russell plans to give Hello Beautiful another work this weekend over Laurel's main track, which was closed for training July 12-14 to undergo routine maintenance.

“We're moving forward, just kind of doing the same thing I did with her going into the Maryland Juvenile [Filly] Championship. She works about every 10 days,” Russell said. “We'll just try and keep it simple, but she's doing really well and that's all we can really ask.”

“[The Test is] not for a couple weeks, and a lot can happen in a couple weeks,” she added. “We just have to focus on keeping her happy so at least we can take a fresh, happy filly up there and see what we can do.”

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