Author: horse-racing-free-tips

Most gambling systems fail to produce positive returns on investment in the long term, this is mainly down to human psychology and no real strategy. In this article I will discuss position sizing and anti-martingale strategies that will assist and help you make a long term profit.

It doesn’t matter if you are gambling in horse racing, investing in stocks or day trading forex you will need to manage your money pot with a position sizing strategy. If you apply this correctly and your desired punts are coming in your money will grow. If you have no position sizing then you are doomed to failure.

What is position sizing?

Position sizing in its purest form can be divided into two areas, martingale or anti-martingale, Most casino gamblers will probably have tried to use a martingale strategy without even realizing it. Martingale strategy increases your bet size if you are losing, anti-martingale is the opposite and you increase your bet size when you are winning. One works the other is a total disaster.. guess which one?

Martingale example:
Any game of chance will have losing streaks!

Joe punter places a $1 bet at 2.0 decimal odds to win, on the horse windjammer at Lingfield it loses he then doubles up and places a $2 bet on the horse tabadul, this also loses. Joe continues his unlucky streak, doubling up as he goes on. His losing streak is now ten horses, he has to place a $2000 bet to just win his original $1, that’s right he has to risk $2000 to make a dollar.
To make matters worse Joe is running out of time as the horse racing track is going to close and also the horse racing tracks betting maximum limit is nearly hit!
See the problems, as a result Martingale strategies in the long term do not work

Anti-Martingale strategies do work however, they call for a larger risk to be taken when you are on a winning streak!
Position sizing systems that work whether for gambling, trading or investing are based around increasing your position size when you are winning and making money, and decreasing your position size when you are losing.

Position sizing – Percent risk model

When you enter into a bet you divide you gambling pot by a % factor, this is then your stake at which you back a horse, If you are laying a horse this is the maximum you can lose so you need to further divide by the laying odds.
Dependant on your appetite for risk and the amount you want to win. You will first need to decide a percentage risk, I recommend anywhere from 0.25% to 1.5%, this may seem quite low, but it ensures long term survival

Example for backing a horse:
I have a gambling pot of $3000 I have determined that for every bet I take I will only risk 1.25% of my money pot
So my first bet will be 3000/100 x 1.25 = $37.50
Luckily my first bet came in and I made $150 profit, so my second bet would now be 3150/100 x 1.25 = $39.4
Simple, all you need do is divide you pot by 1.25% for each bet

Example for laying a horse:
I have a gambling pot of $3000 I have determined that every bet I take I will only risk 1.25% of my money pot
So my first bet I will risk 3000/100 x 1.25 = $37.50
My lay bet odds are 9.0 decimal (8/1) so my betting stake will be $4.69 (37.5/8) giving me a bet liability of $37.5 if my bet is unsuccessful
My second bet will now be 3004.69/100 x 1.25 = $37.56 etc

Benefits of a percentage risk model

Allows for small and large betting accounts to grow steadily it also equalizes performance by the actual risk.
Finally the percentage risk model is recommended as the best possible position sizing model for long term trend followers. It gives all bets equal risk and gives a steady growth to your betting pot.

This article is free to distribute or copy as long as it is in full and includes the hyperlink

For exceptional horse racing and gambling advice please visit http://www.zaczebra.co.uk

Zaczebra is an expert author and webmaster of various websites

Putting together a system is not as difficult as it may sound, even for a beginner. The important thing, and with any betting, is that you write down every rule and follow it for at least 100 bets. You do not need to trade real money, paper trading is best at first. If after 100 bets it is in profit, you can then give it a betting bank and start gambling.

Starting an untested system with real money, and packing it in on its first losing run, putting it down as failed, will only cost you more and more money in the long term. Being patient saves you money.

So let us get down to starting a system eh? I’ll show you below how simple they are to put together, this example is profitable, so no reason why you can not follow it with a betting bank, but its yearly profits are not huge, but have a go at your own, always making sure that you understand way a rule works.

The system below is designed for National Hunt racing.

‘The NH High SR Non-Handicap Fav System’

Rule 1: Non-Handicap races only.
This ensures that we do not include handicap races, which are more difficult to get profitable systems out of. Although when you do they are more profitable than non-handicap races.

Rule 2: Forecast Favourite only (if joint VOID bet)
Just to make sure we have one clear qualifier for our non-handicap race.

Rule 3: Forecast price must be odds on.
I know that the lower the odds the more likely it is to win, although the lower the odds the smaller the profit for a new bank.

The first 3 rules of any systems I quantify as the main system rules, they ensure we have the main set of qualifiers we are looking for. Those rules after, I regard as filters to take out any facts I know are not profitable long term.

Rule 4: Horse age must be 6+
This is because in the UK, horses are not generally full wound up for jumping until they are at least 6, so those of a lower age have erratic results that do not prove profitable, so no use including them.

Rule 5: Horse must have finished 2nd or worse on its last run.
Horses that won last time out usually go off at lower odds than they should, so an edge is taken away.

Rule 6: Must be a gelding.
Geldings win the majority of races over fences, and are generally have the most consistent and reliable form.

Rule 7: Going must be Good-Soft or better.
Any softer than this and results can get a bit random.

That is it. Over the last 10 years it has produced a 48pt profit even at those low odds, and a 63% SR overall. It has had 3 losing years in that period, the worst being 5pts, but using the betting exchange prices, they would also have shown a profit.. There are around 100 bets per year.

So you can see by this example, it does not profit every year, but long term it still shows a profit, and it is long term that any professional gambler will tell you is the only time span that matters.