Author: horse-racing-free-tips

Horse racing handicapping should include analyzing the human element, especially in claiming races when a horse makes his first start for a new trainer. It’s quite common among novices simply glance at a horse’s speed indexes and final times when making their selections, but wise handicappers compare the records of the current and previous trainer. The several questions may arise: when is the right time to wager on a horse in a new barn, why does a horse suddenly improve or regress for a new trainer, what rules should we understand about a newly claimed horse?

We must first analyze the record of the former conditioner before we judge whether a trainer can improve his recently claimed horse, for instance, if high-percentage trainer claims a horse from a trainer with a poor winning percentage, we can assume the horse will improve in his new surroundings, and if a low-percentage trainer claims a horse from the track’s leading trainer, we can conclude the animal won’t improve – more than likely, he will regress.

Quite often, we are able to eliminate from consideration a betting underlay when the horse goes from a high- to a low-percentage barn. Indexes of a high recent speed horse for a leading trainer often has declining figures for a new outfit. This may result in betting overlay when a horse with dismal recent form for a low-percentage trainer hooks up with leading trainer in wins.

On the one hand, a claimed horse returned at or below its last claimed price used to be considered a negative but with higher purses nationally, a claimed horse can earn a sizable pot even if he is returned at the level he was purchased. More trainers are willing to risk possibly losing their newly claimed horse for the same or even a slightly lesser price because they would still earn a profit from the purse winnings.

It’s easy to understand why some trainers are willing to run their newly claimed horses at or below their claimed price – they place their horses where they are most likely to win, and even if another trainer claims one of their horses, they will show a return on their investment if the horse wins or hits the board.

Always consider jockey and equipment changes – a horse claimed from a low percentage stable is likely to have a top rider for his new barn, and a leading jockey on a newly claimed horse would be a big improvement over his previous riders who might have a low win percentage.

For a successful analysis of a newly claimed horse, we must know as much about the new trainer as we do the horse. Remember, handicapping the horse and trainer separates the novice from the veteran.

Most gambling systems fail to produce positive returns on investment in the long term, this is mainly down to human psychology and no real strategy. In this article I will discuss position sizing and anti-martingale strategies that will assist and help you make a long term profit.

It doesn’t matter if you are gambling in horse racing, investing in stocks or day trading forex you will need to manage your money pot with a position sizing strategy. If you apply this correctly and your desired punts are coming in your money will grow. If you have no position sizing then you are doomed to failure.

What is position sizing?

Position sizing in its purest form can be divided into two areas, martingale or anti-martingale, Most casino gamblers will probably have tried to use a martingale strategy without even realizing it. Martingale strategy increases your bet size if you are losing, anti-martingale is the opposite and you increase your bet size when you are winning. One works the other is a total disaster.. guess which one?

Martingale example:
Any game of chance will have losing streaks!

Joe punter places a $1 bet at 2.0 decimal odds to win, on the horse windjammer at Lingfield it loses he then doubles up and places a $2 bet on the horse tabadul, this also loses. Joe continues his unlucky streak, doubling up as he goes on. His losing streak is now ten horses, he has to place a $2000 bet to just win his original $1, that’s right he has to risk $2000 to make a dollar.
To make matters worse Joe is running out of time as the horse racing track is going to close and also the horse racing tracks betting maximum limit is nearly hit!
See the problems, as a result Martingale strategies in the long term do not work

Anti-Martingale strategies do work however, they call for a larger risk to be taken when you are on a winning streak!
Position sizing systems that work whether for gambling, trading or investing are based around increasing your position size when you are winning and making money, and decreasing your position size when you are losing.

Position sizing – Percent risk model

When you enter into a bet you divide you gambling pot by a % factor, this is then your stake at which you back a horse, If you are laying a horse this is the maximum you can lose so you need to further divide by the laying odds.
Dependant on your appetite for risk and the amount you want to win. You will first need to decide a percentage risk, I recommend anywhere from 0.25% to 1.5%, this may seem quite low, but it ensures long term survival

Example for backing a horse:
I have a gambling pot of $3000 I have determined that for every bet I take I will only risk 1.25% of my money pot
So my first bet will be 3000/100 x 1.25 = $37.50
Luckily my first bet came in and I made $150 profit, so my second bet would now be 3150/100 x 1.25 = $39.4
Simple, all you need do is divide you pot by 1.25% for each bet

Example for laying a horse:
I have a gambling pot of $3000 I have determined that every bet I take I will only risk 1.25% of my money pot
So my first bet I will risk 3000/100 x 1.25 = $37.50
My lay bet odds are 9.0 decimal (8/1) so my betting stake will be $4.69 (37.5/8) giving me a bet liability of $37.5 if my bet is unsuccessful
My second bet will now be 3004.69/100 x 1.25 = $37.56 etc

Benefits of a percentage risk model

Allows for small and large betting accounts to grow steadily it also equalizes performance by the actual risk.
Finally the percentage risk model is recommended as the best possible position sizing model for long term trend followers. It gives all bets equal risk and gives a steady growth to your betting pot.

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