August, 2021 | Horse Racing Free Tips

League One Betting Review – 1 May 2006

Southend confirmed their promotion to the Championship after earning the point they required in the 2-2 draw at Swansea. The Shrimpers twice fell behind to Rory Fallon goals on 19 and 34 but equalised on both occasions through leading goalscorer Fredy Eastwood after 28 and 63 minutes. The 12/5 draw means Steve Tilson’s are four points above third placed Brentford with one game to play.

Colchester are on the brink of automatic promotion after beating relegation-threatened Rotherham 2-0, their third successive victory. An own goal from Shaun Barker after 29 minutes and Mark Yeates on 53 secured an 8/15 home win.

Brentford were frustrated by Hartlepool as the two sides drew 1-1 at Griffin Park. Kevin O’Connor put the Bees in pole position six minutes before the end but Michael Nelson set-up a 14/5 draw with an injury time equaliser.

Huddersfield’s hopes of automatic promotion were ended as they lost 2-1 at home to Yeovil. David Graham put the Terriers in front after eight minutes but Phil Jevons ensured an unlikely 41/10 win with a penalty on 66 and winning goal after 72 minutes.

Draw specialists Barnsley recorded their eighth stalemate in their last 11 games with a goalless draw against Bradford. Shrewd punters will have eagerly snapped up the 11/4 on offer.

Nottingham Forest’s late bid for a play-off place will be decided on the final day of the season after they were held 1-1 at home to Bournemouth at 3/1 odds. Steve Fletcher gave the Cherries the lead after 48 minutes but Nathan Tyson levelled on 56.

Doncaster kept their outside chances of snatching the final play-off berth alive with a 1-0 win against Oldham. James Coppinger struck the decisive goal for 11/10 Rovers after 66 minutes.

Bristol City’s hopes of reaching the play-offs ended as they drew 1-1 with local rivals Swindon, a result which relegated Iffy Onoura’s side. Former City winger Aaron Brown gave Swindon the lead four minutes into the second half but David Cotterill levelled on 68 to set-up a 10/3 draw.

Milton Keynes Dons survival battle will be decided on the final match of the season as they crashed 2-1 against Tranmere. David Partridge headed into his own net after 87 minutes to give Rovers the lead but Izale McLeod equalised on 90. With the match heading for a draw Delroy Facey struck a 23/10 winner late in stoppage time.

Relegated Walsall earned manager Mark Kinsella victory in his first match in charge against Gillingham. Veteran striker Steve Claridge netted the decisive goal for the 9/2 Saddlers after 56 minutes.

Elsewhere, Scunthorpe snatched a last-gasp winner against Blackpool with Billy Sharp scoring the winner in injury time for the 8/5 Iron.

Port Vale came from a goal down to emphatically beat Chesterfield 3-1 at Vale Park. Jamie O’Hara gave the Spireites a third minute lead but George Pilkington equalised two minutes later. Pilkington put the Valiants ahead after 15 minutes and Michael Cummins sealed an 11/10 home win with nine minutes remaining.

Constitution Colt Romps in Albany

Americanrevolution added another impressive tally to his resume with a dominant score in the Albany. Riding the rail in fifth through a :23.49 opening quarter, the chestnut maintained that position as Bobby Bo put up a :47.33 half-mile. Taking closer order on the backstretch run, Americanrevolution ranged up to confront the leader turning for home and the pair battled to the wire with Americanrevolution drawing clear late to win. Bobby Bo held second and it was a long way back to third-place horse.

“I thought we would be a little closer to the pacesetter, but we got a little traffic and a little dirt around the turn,” said winning trainer Todd Pletcher. “He came away in good position turning up the backside and continued to improve his spot. It seemed like he was always traveling well.”

Fourth behind GI Haskell Invitational S. winner Mandaloun (Into Mischief) on debut against open company at Keeneland in October, he was transferred from trainer Rodolphe Brisset to New York-based Pletcher. Graduating by a neck in an Empire-bred event at Belmont June 20, he romped by 7 1/4 lengths when extended to two turns in the state-bred New York Derby at Finger Lakes July 19.

Polly Freeze is also responsible for the unraced juvenile colt Bold Journey (Hard Spun) and a yearling filly by Collected. She was bred to Frosted last spring. Polly Freeze is a half-sister to MGSW Gouldings Green (Charismatic) and SW Filare L'Oro (Hard Spun), dam of MGSW Silver Dust (Tapit) and GSP Forza Di Oro (Speightstown). Click for the Equibase.com chart or VIDEO, sponsored by TVG.

ALBANY S., $250,000, Saratoga, 8-27, (S), 3yo, 1 1/8m, 1:49.94, ft.
1–AMERICANREVOLUTION, 124, c, 3, by Constitution
                1st Dam: Polly Freeze, by Super Saver
                2nd Dam: Elusive Gold, by Strike the Gold
                3rd Dam: Save My Soul, by I'ma Hell Raiser
($275,000 Ylg '19 SARAUG). O-CHC Inc. and WinStar Farm LLC;
B-Fred W. Hertrich III & John D. Fielding (NY); T-Todd A.
Pletcher; J-Luis Saez. $137,500. Lifetime Record: 4-3-0-0,
$271,535.
2–Bobby Bo, 118, c, 3, Speightster–Auspicious, by Indian
Charlie. ($110,000 Ylg '19 SARAUG; $1,100,000 RNA 2yo '20
OBSAPR). O-Little Red Feather Racing; B-Danzel Brendemuehl
Classic Mares (NY); T-Bob Baffert. $50,000.
3–It's a Gamble, 124, c, 3, English Channel–Yes It's Pink, by Yes
It's True. O-Mr. Amore Stable; B-Ron Lombardi (NY); T-Kelly J.
Breen. $30,000.
Margins: 5, 11HF, HF. Odds: 0.70, 2.65, 24.00.
Also Ran: Our Man Mike, Anejo, Joey Loose Lips, It's Gravy, Bingo John. Scratched: Purple Hearted.

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Using Speed Figures to Track Possible Cheaters

When it comes to figuring out which trainers are taking an illegal edge it usually comes down to guesswork and innuendo, hardly the best way to police the sport. That's why The Jockey Club put Jerry Brown of Thoro-Graph and consultants McKinsey & Company to work and asked them to formulate an algorithm that uses speed-figure data to identify trainers that may be using performance-enhancing drugs.

The program, which was announced at the recent Jockey Club Round Table, is being made available to tracks through The Jockey Club's In Compass database.

When it comes to identifying possible cheaters, speed figures, a way to measure a horse's performance, are a good place to start. Horses have good days and bad days and can improve or decline from race to race. But when horses from a certain trainer repeatedly show dramatic improvement, particularly when making their first start for a new barn, that's a sign that there could be a problem.

Whether they use speed figures or not, handicappers are often the first to know when a trainer is likely using something stronger than hay, oats and water.

“Horseplayers are more aware of what's going on than anybody else and that's because we are actually handicapping these races in much more detail than trainers, owners or racetrack management,” Brown said. “We know who the guys are that you have to be concerned about. This is something that, way back, horseplayers were seeing and getting frantic about it. It used to be that there were just two guys you had to worry about and then over time, it became more and more. We were able to spot them.”

From his own numbers, Brown was able to see when a trainer was having results that he thought defied normal explanation, but he realized that his own suspicions carried only so much weight. That's where McKinsey came in.

“I knew that The Jockey Club was serious about this problem,” Brown said. “We've been trying for a while to find a way to use our data to help solve this problem. This program now is a natural outgrowth of that cause. You'll have a 5-year-old with established form jump up in the figures and the same trainers are getting a number of those. That's a problem. But The Jockey Club wanted to find some way to standardize it so it wasn't just Jerry Brown saying 'Watch this guy.' They brought McKinsey in to develop algorithms for which trainers they should be keeping an eye on. My part of it was to supply the data and to sit down with McKinsey to explain how our data worked.”

To avoid a “garbage in, garbage out” scenario, McKinsey had to know what mattered and what didn't. The program generally doesn't look at 2-year-olds since rapid improvement in such young horses is not out of the ordinary. They also had to understand the relevance of such things as surface changes, in particular that a move to the grass could be the reason why a horse improved.

The idea was to look at horses with established form, come up with a baseline number for their typical performance, and then flag instances where a horse, based on the Thoro-Graph numbers, far exceeded that baseline. Rather than just looking at when a horse made its first start for a new trainer, they looked at every race in the Thoro-Graph database over a four-year period.

The program flags a result whenever a horse runs a Thoro-Graph figure that is two or more points lower than its previous top. With the Thoro-Graph numbers, the lower the figure the faster the race. During the study that ran from 2016 to 2019, 5.5% of all starts met the criteria for being flagged. A full 17% of all trainers had statistically high rates of “exceptional” performances.

“After going through our data and working on the algorithms, they presented me with a list of people who jumped up as being people who needed to be watched,” Brown said. “It was really good. Out of 10 they listed there was only one that I hadn't had any doubts about, but they might have been right about that guy, too.”

Of course, a trainer can't be suspended just because a computer program shows they have a high rate of horses running exceptionally fast races that are hard to explain. The question then becomes how can a track use the data to help clean up the sport? There are no doubt some track managers who, used to looking the other way, won't pay any attention to it all. But there are ways to put the McKinsey numbers to use. For instance, a track may want to increase the rate of out-of-competition tests for a trainer who has been flagged and conduct post-race test on their horses no matter where they finish in a race. Putting surveillance cameras in the barns of trainers who made the list is another option. When, and if, the United States Anti-Doping Agency takes over the policing of the sport, there's no doubt that the agency will put the numbers to good use.

“The Jockey Club hired a detective agency to keep an eye on certain individuals,” Brown said, referring to the investigation that led to the indictments of Jason Servis, Jorge Navarro and others. “I imagine that's one of the things they may want to do again now that they have this data.”

The Thoro-Graph-McKinsey collaboration is not going to solve the sport's problem with illegal drugs, but if used properly it could be a valuable tool.

“Horseplayers are always the first to know what is going on,” Brown said. “Now there's an algorithm out there that mirrors what horseplayers think and know. That can only help.”

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Two Jockeys Suspended For Roles In Accident Causing Seven-Horse Spill At Del Mar

Jockeys Jose Valdivia, Jr. and Diego Herrera (apprentice) have each been issued suspensions by the Del Mar stewards, reports the Daily Racing Form, for their roles in an incident that caused a seven-horse spill and resulting “no contest” in last Sunday's seventh race.

Sassy Chasey (Herrera) was racing in third, in between frontrunners Katie's Paradise (Valdivia) to the outside and Scream and Shout along the rail when she appeared to clip the heels of Katie's Paradise and went down, setting off the chain reaction that involved Backtoflash and Cesar Ortega; Whiskey Blue and Kyle Frey; Siena Silk and Emily Ellingwood; Renegade Princess and Tyler Baze; Phoenix Tears and Tiago Pereira; and Corners Up and Juan Espinoza.

Miraculously, there were no serious injuries among jockeys or horses, with four riders going to a local hospital for evaluation before being discharged. Among the seven horses, there were only a few lacerations that required stitches. All were back in their stalls Sunday night.

Valdivia received a 10-day suspension, and Herrera received five days. Herrera's agent, Vince DeGregory, said the apprentice jockey does not plan to appeal. However, Valdivia's agent, Nick Hines, is planning an appeal.

“What can you say?” Hines told DRF. “Ultra-surprised and flabbergasted, to single Jose out when the rider who clipped heels admitted fault. They've made Jose out to be doubly responsible.”