We are at the halfway point of the racing year, with the Triple Crown in the rear-view mirror and the Breeders' Cup on the horizon.
So far this year, the closest thing we have to an emerging superstar is Cody's Wish, a 5-year-old son of Curlin who has built a six-race winning streak, including two races this year, both of them Grade 1, most recently the Met Mile. Four others have won a pair of North American G1 races in 2023 – Clairiere, In Italian, Pretty Mischievous, and Up to the Mark – but none in the high-profile ranks of 3-year-old colts prepping for and competing in the Triple Crown. There are no three-time G1 winners yet this year.
Among owners, Godolphin has won five of the 35 G1 races run so far this year with three different runners, including the aforementioned Kentucky Oaks winner Pretty Mischievous. And so far this year, there is no one dominant trainer winning at this elite level. Chad Brown, Brad Cox, and Todd Pletcher each have four G1 wins, Cox with four different horses and Brown and Pletcher with three. Bob Baffert and Bill Mott round out the top five with three G1 wins each, Baffert with three horses and Mott with two, including Cody's Wish.
Combined, these five trainers have won 18 of the 35 G1 races (51 percent) run thus far in North America, leaving the 17 other G1 stakes to the hundreds of other trainers playing the role of David to these Goliaths.
There are 62 G1 races yet to be run this year in the United States and another five in Canada. Will we see more of the same, with a handful of trainers dominating these races, or will smaller barns get their share of the pie? I wouldn't bet on the latter.
The wealth inequality among trainers appears to mirror society in general, where the rich are getting richer and the poor are poorer. The current year figures suggest that this gap has widened over the last decade, and why wouldn't it? Success begets success. Those barns have attracted the owners with the deepest pockets and a strategic mission to dominate the game at the highest level.
From 2013 through 2022, the top five trainers by G1 wins (see table below) won 404 of the 1,105 G1 races contested. That's 37 percent of the total. The top 10 won 564 races, or 51 percent. If the current year trend continues, just five trainers will win half of the top-tier races in 2023.
The ascendancy of two trainers in the last decade is particularly noteworthy.
Chad Brown formerly worked for Robert Frankel, who in 2003 set the all-time single-season mark of 25 G1 victories of the 99 run. Brown went out on his own in 2007, won his first career G1 race in 2011 and led all trainers in G1 wins from 2013-'22. He has shrewd owners who are looking at various divisions and are not averse to focusing on fillies and mares or turf racing, unlike some of the other top stables whose business models are driven almost exclusively by potential stallion deals for colts running on dirt.
Brad Cox has been training longer than Brown, having saddled his first runner in 2004. He kicked around the claiming ranks for a decade before winning his first graded stakes in 2014. Two-time champion Monomoy Girl gave Cox his first G1 victory in 2018, and it's been lights out ever since. He won back-t0-back Eclipse Awards as outstanding trainer in 2020 and '21, has gained the confidence and support of some of the world's leading owners, currently sits atop the North American earnings list for 2023, and has a stable loaded with talent.
Both Brown and Cox are just hitting their prime.
The others at the top of the list – all members of the National Museum of Racing Hall of Fame – aren't going away any time soon. Bob Baffert, now 70 years old, is the all-time leader with 241 career G1 wins. He continues to excel in the 2- and 3-year-old divisions and has owners who re-stock his shedrow on a regular basis with high-end auction purchases. Todd Pletcher and Steve Asmussen are 1-2 in all-time earnings (both are above $400 million), have massive operations that are well-run, are in their mid-50s and show no signs of slowing down. William Mott, who joins Baffert in the septuagenarian club on July 29, is coming off his best year ever in earnings, and obviously knows what to do when he has a good horse in his care.
If the Davids wants to beat these Goliaths, they'll need more than a sling.
That's my view from the eighth pole.
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