The Kentucky Derby prep schedule is starting to ramp up, which means it's time for detailed looks at the horses that could fill the starting gate with Andrew Champagne of Catena Media and The Saratogian's Pink Sheet.
Check back with the Paulick Report regularly for updated rankings that include news, notes, and opinions on the 3-year-olds that figure to take center stage.
It's an honor and a privilege to be back for another year of the Derby Bubble. With the exception of next week, I'll be here on a weekly basis leading up to the first Saturday in May. There will likely be significant movement from one set of rankings to another, and it's always fun see the Kentucky Derby picture come into focus.
One note before we get started: Currently, horses trained by Bob Baffert cannot accrue Kentucky Derby points and, therefore, cannot run in the Kentucky Derby. As such, I will not be including Baffert-trained horses in these rankings.
Should circumstances change, or should horses be officially moved to other barns, those horses would be Derby-eligible, and they'd be included here. The Baffert barn currently has some of the top 3-year-olds in the country (including Arabian Knight, who would otherwise be ranked no lower than second), so that makes this initial list even more challenging.
With that in mind, here's the first top-20 list!
Kentucky-bred contenders will be highlighted in red, and will receive additional analysis into their breeders, broodmares, and auction histories. Pedigree notes are written by Joe Nevills.
#1: Forte
Pedigree: Violence – Queen Caroline (by Blame)
Owner: Repole Stable, St. Elias Stable
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Breeder: South Gate Farm (KY)
Kentucky Derby points: 40
It's impossible to start anywhere else. Forte was clearly the best 2-year-old of his class a season ago, when he won three straight Grade 1 races (including the Breeders' Cup Juvenile). He's been working steadily ahead of his return, which could come within the next few weeks. If he's moved forward off of his 2022 form, he's the 3-year-old every other horse in this list has to catch up to.
Forte was bred in Kentucky by South Gate Farm, out of the multiple stakes-winning Blame mare Queen Caroline. He sold for $110,000 at the 2021 Keeneland September Yearling Sale. Amy Moore of South Gate Farm bought Queen Caroline as a yearling for $170,000 at the 2014 Keeneland September sale.
#2: Victory Formation
Pedigree: Tapwrit – Smart N Soft (by Smart Strike)
Owner: Spendthrift Farm, Frank Fletcher Racing
Trainer: Brad Cox
Breeder: Gainesway Thoroughbreds Ltd. (KY)
Kentucky Derby points: 10
You'll see Brad Cox's name on this list a lot, and this one may be the best 3-year-old in his barn. Victory Formation is a perfect three-for-three and will likely go favored in Saturday's Grade 2 Risen Star at Fair Grounds. His win in the listed Smarty Jones was very good, and his two-back allowance win has aged well (third-place finisher Lugan Knight won last month's Jerome at Aqueduct).
Victory Formation was bred in Kentucky by Gainesway Thoroughbreds Ltd., out of the winning Smart Strike mare Smart N Soft. He sold as a weanling for $100,000 at the 2020 Keeneland November Breeding Stock Sale, then he brought $150,000 at the 2021 Fasig-Tipton Kentucky July Yearling Sale, and he sold to his current ownership for $340,000 at last year's Fasig-Tipton Midlantic 2-Year-Olds In Training Sale. Gainesway purchased Smart N Soft pregnant to Uncle Mo for $140,000 at the 2015 Keeneland November Sale.
#3: Instant Coffee
Pedigree: Bolt d'Oro – Follow No One (by Uncle Mo)
Owner: Gold Square LLC
Trainer: Brad Cox
Breeder: Sagamore Farm (KY)
Kentucky Derby points: 32
Instant Coffee rallied from last to first to win the G3 Lecomte a few weeks ago, and he runs like a horse that will have no problem getting the Derby's 1 1/4-mile distance. He also has a graded stakes win over the Churchill Downs surface, which came in last year's G2 Kentucky Jockey Club. If there's a negative here, it's that, as of this writing, he hasn't had a published workout since the Lecomte victory.
Instant Coffee was bred in Kentucky by Sagamore Farm, out of the stakes-placed Uncle Mo mare Follow No One. He hammered for $200,000 at the 2021 Keeneland September sale. Sagamore Farm purchased Follow No One for $100,000 at the 2016 Ocala Breeders' Sales Co. Spring 2-Year-Olds in Training Sale.
#4: Hit Show
Pedigree: Candy Ride – Actress (by Tapit)
Owner: Gary and Mary West
Trainer: Brad Cox
Breeder: Gary & Mary West Stables Inc. (KY)
Kentucky Derby points: 20
Yep, one barn holds down the second, third, and fourth spots on this list. A winner of three of four starts, Hit Show cruised home to win Saturday's G3 Withers at Aqueduct. It didn't seem like a great field, but he won the right way, overcoming some traffic and having plenty left when the field turned for home. Last year's Withers produced eventual Preakness winner Early Voting, and this year's renewal might age well, too.
Hit Show was bred in Kentucky by Gary & Mary West Stables Inc., out of the Tapit mare Actress, who was herself a Grade 2 winner as a homebred for the Wests.
#5: Litigate
Pedigree: Blame – Salsa Diavola (by Mineshaft)
Owner: Centennial Farms
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Breeder: Nursery Place, Donaldson & Broadbent (KY)
Kentucky Derby points: 20
Unlike many of his rivals in the G3 Sam F. Davis (some of whom we'll get to later; that's called foreshadowing, kids!), Litigate sat a picture-perfect trip beneath Luis Saez. As a result, the Todd Pletcher trainee got the money and stamped himself as a Derby contender. He was certainly helped by others in the field having considerable traffic trouble, but he's lightly-raced and bred to improve with both distance and experience.
Litigate was bred in Kentucky by Nursery Place, Donaldson & Broadbent, out of the unplaced Mineshaft mare Salsa Diavola. Centennial Farms purchased Litigate for $370,000 at the 2021 Keeneland September sale. Salsa Diavola was acquired privately after she was claimed for $12,500 out of a Woodbine maiden claiming race in November 2016.
#6: Blazing Sevens
Pedigree: Good Magic – Trophy Girl (by Warrior's Reward)
Owner: Rodeo Creek Racing
Trainer: Chad Brown
Breeder: Tracy Farmer (KY)
Kentucky Derby points: 16
Blazing Sevens didn't do a lot wrong during his 2-year-old season. He won one Grade 1 (the Champagne), finished third in another (the Hopeful), and ran fourth in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile after probably losing all chance at the start. He's been working steadily at Payson Park ahead of his 3-year-old debut, which should be coming sooner rather than later.
Blazing Sevens was bred in Kentucky by Tracy Farmer, out of the winning Warrior's Reward mare Trophy Girl. After bringing $140,000 as a newly-turned yearling at the 2021 Keeneland January Horses of All Ages Sale, Blazing Sevens sold for $250,000 that summer at the Fasig-Tipton Saratoga Select Yearling Sale. Farmer acquired Trophy Girl as a weanling for $62,000 at the 2013 Fasig-Tipton November Sale.
#7: Tapit Trice
Pedigree: Tapit – Danzatrice (by Dunkirk)
Owner: Whisper Hill Farm, Gainesway Stable
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Breeder: Gainesway Thoroughbreds Ltd. (KY)
Kentucky Derby points: 0
Tapit Trice turned plenty of heads in his first start against winners. He aired by eight lengths against allowance foes earlier this month at Gulfstream Park and ran the last furlong of the one-mile race in just over 12 seconds. His next start will almost certainly come against much stiffer competition, but if anyone can move a 3-year-old ahead in a hurry, it's Hall of Fame trainer Todd Pletcher.
Tapit Trice was bred in Kentucky by Gainesway Thoroughbreds Ltd., out of the Grade 3-placed multiple stakes-winning Dunkirk mare Danzatrice. Tapit Trice sold to Mandy Pope's Whisper Hill Farm for $1.3 million at the 2021 Keeneland September sale. A half-sister to champion Jaywalk, Danzatrice was a $105,000 purchase by Gainesway at the 2014 OBS Spring 2-Year-Olds In Training Sale.
#8: Rocket Can
Pedigree: Into Mischief – Tension (by Tapit)
Owner: Frank Fletcher Racing
Trainer: Bill Mott
Breeder: Woodford Thoroughbreds, LLC (KY)
Kentucky Derby points: 20
Much was made about the quality (or lack thereof) in the G3 Holy Bull. Speed figures weren't kind to it, either, but Rocket Can did win while racing wide the whole way around the Gulfstream Park oval. Bill Mott's runners usually improve with experience, too, so while that prep was on the slow side, there may still be plenty to like here.
Rocket Can was bred in Kentucky by Woodford Thoroughbreds LLC, out of the placed Tapit mare Tension. Woodford Thoroughbreds bought Tension pregnant to Curlin for $750,000 at the 2017 Keeneland November sale, and sold her at this year's Keeneland January sale.
#9: Curly Jack
Pedigree: Good Magic – Connie and Michael (by Roman Ruler)
Owner: Michael McLoughlin
Trainer: Tom Amoss
Breeder: Breeder: Betz/J.Betz/Burns/Camaquiki/C.Kidder/et al
Kentucky Derby points: 17
A six-start 2-year-old campaign isn't as common as it used to be, and Curly Jack accomplished plenty in his. Most notably, he ran several strong races beneath the Twin Spires in winning the G3 Iroquois and running second in the G2 Kentucky Jockey Club. His 3-year-old debut will come in Saturday's Risen Star, and he might need to bring that Churchill form with him to best 13 rivals (including several that are on this list).
Curly Jack was bred in Kentucky by the partnership of Betz/J.Betz/Burns/Camaquiki/C.Kidder/et al., out of the Grade 1-placed Roman Ruler mare Connie and Michael, whose runners also include stakes-placed Fannie and Freddie. Curly Jack sold to owner Michael McLoughlin for $180,000 at the 2021 Keeneland September sale.
#10: Dubyuhnell
Pedigree: Good Magic – Wild Gams (by Forest Wildcat)
Owner: West Paces Racing, Stonestreet Stables
Trainer: Danny Gargan
Breeder: Stonestreet Thoroughbred Holdings LLC (KY)
Kentucky Derby points: 10
Dubyuhnell ran a non-threatening eighth in the Sam F. Davis, but that effort looks like one you can draw a line through. Like several other runners in that race, he had a nightmarish trip, and the finish was a result of that rather than a regression or lack of ability. Assuming he's bounced out of that race in good health, the G2 Remsen winner will almost certainly get another shot at Kentucky Derby points later this season.
Dubyuhnell was bred in Kentucky by Stonestreet Thoroughbred Holdings, out of the multiple Grade 3-winning Forest Wildcat mare Wild Gams, whose runners also include Grade 2 winner Cazadero, stakes winner Mt. Brave, and Grade 3-placed Almost Famous. Dubyuhnell brought $400,000 at the 2021 Keeneland September Sale, while Stonestreet Thoroughbred Holdings secured Wild Gams as a broodmare prospect for $1 million at the 2008 Keeneland November sale.
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If you appreciate our work, you can support us by subscribing to our Patreon stream. Learn more.#11: Kingsbarns
Pedigree: Uncle Mo – Lady Tapit (by Tapit)
Owner: Spendthrift Farm
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Breeder: Parks Investment Group, LLC (KY)
Kentucky Derby points: 0
One day after Litigate won the Sam F. Davis at Tampa Bay Downs, stablemate Kingsbarns demolished a first-level allowance group by nearly eight lengths over the same surface. It was just his second lifetime start, and he didn't make his career debut until Jan. 14 of this year. However, while time isn't necessarily on his side (he may only have a chance at one Kentucky Derby prep race), there's no denying this regally-bred colt's potential.
Kingsbarns was bred in Kentucky by Parks Investment Group, out of the Grade 3-placed Tapit mare Lady Tapit, who is herself a half-sister to Grade 1 winner Gozzip Girl. After bringing $250,000 at the 2021 Fasig-Tipton Saratoga sale, the colt sold to Spendthrift Farm for $800,000 at last year's Fasig-Tipton Gulfstream Select 2-Year-Olds In Training Sale.
#12: Lugan Knight
Pedigree: Goldencents – Sly Roxy (by Speightstown)
Owner: BG Stables
Trainer: Michael McCarthy
Breeder: BG Stables (KY)
Kentucky Derby points: 10
Lugan Knight made the lead in the Jerome, and things looked dicey when Arctic Arrogance ranged up alongside him turning for home. However, this colt found more beneath Dylan Davis and fended off a runner that came back to run second in the Withers. There are some distance questions here given his pedigree, but McCarthy conditioned a winner of a Triple Crown race just two years ago, when Rombauer sprang an upset in the Preakness.
Lugan Knight was bred in Kentucky by BG Stables, out of the winning Speightstown mare Sly Roxy. His second dam is two-time Canadian champion Roxy Gap.
#13: Arctic Arrogance
Pedigree: Frosted – Modest Maven (by Uncle Mo)
Owner: Chester and Mary Broman
Trainer: Linda Rice
Breeder: Chester Broman & Mary R. Broman (NY)
Kentucky Derby points: 16
Arctic Arrogance has yet to finish out of the top two through six career starts. He set a pressured pace in the Withers and had little left when Hit Show came running, but he held second while well clear of the rest of that field. He also ran second in both the Remsen (behind Dubyuhnell) and the Jerome (behind Lugan Knight). Another New York start likely awaits for this New York-bred, and another in-the-money finish could be enough to punch his ticket to Kentucky.
#14: Two Phil's
Pedigree: Hard Spun – Mia Torri (by General Quarters)
Owner: Patricia's Hope, Phillip Sagan
Trainer: Larry Rivelli
Breeder: Phillip Sagan (KY)
Kentucky Derby points: 8
Rivelli? I'll include Rivelli (I'm sorry, I had to). The form of Two Phil's looks much better if you can forgive his clunker in the G1 Breeders' Futurity. Do that, and you have a horse that won the G3 Street Sense over the Churchill surface and was a clear second behind Instant Coffee in the Lecomte. Several very promising horses will line up alongside this one in the Risen Star, but the Lecomte victor is conspicuously absent.
Two Phil's was bred in Kentucky by Phillip Sagan, out of the Grade 3-placed stakes-winning General Quarters mare Mia Torri, who Sagan acquired privately during her on-track career.
#15: Giant Mischief
Pedigree: Into Mischief – Vertical Oak (by Giant Oak)
Owner: Spendthrift Farm, Stonestreet Stables, Steve Landers Racing, Et al
Trainer: Brad Cox
Breeder: Stonestreet Thoroughbred Holdings LLC (KY)
Kentucky Derby points: 0
Giant Mischief ran a huge race second time out at Keeneland, when he won a seven-furlong allowance race in 1:22.30. He was then compromised by an awful start in the listed Springboard Mile at Remington Park, where he settled for second. He's since posted some head-turning workouts at Fair Grounds in the past few weeks. That makes him another potential contender in a loaded barn looking for either its first or second Kentucky Derby victory (depending on how you view the events of 2021, which still haven't been finalized in a court of law nearly two years later).
Giant Mischief was bred in Kentucky by Stonestreet Thoroughbred Holdings LLC, out of the Grade 2-winning Giant Oak mare Vertical Oak. He sold for $475,000 at the 2021 Keeneland September sale. Stonestreet acquired Vertical Oak, with Giant Mischief in-utero, for $700,000 at the 2019 Fasig-Tipton November Sale.
#16: Cyclone Mischief
Pedigree: Into Mischief – Areyoucominghere (by Bernardini)
Owner: Albaugh Family Stables, Castleton Lyons
Trainer: Dale Romans
Breeder: Castleton Lyons & Kilboy Estate (KY)
Kentucky Derby points: 0
Dale Romans was very high on Cyclone Mischief earlier this month, and for good reason. His January allowance win, where he drubbed next-out Sam F. Davis winner Litigate by nearly six lengths, was outstanding. However, he was a non-threatening seventh as the 6/5 favorite in the Holy Bull. There's still time left for him to bounce back before the Derby, though, and anything close to his two-back form would make him a formidable foe.
Cyclone Mischief was bred in Kentucky by Castleton Lyons & Kilboy Estate, out of the unplaced Bernardini mare Areyoucominghere. He sold to Albaugh Family Stables for $450,000 at the 2021 Keeneland September sale. Areyoucominghere was purchased by Castleton Lyons, pregnant to Into Mischief, for $350,000 at the 2018 Keeneland November sale.
#17: Practical Move
Pedigree: Practical Joke – Ack Naughty (by Afleet Alex)
Owner: Amestoy, Amestoy, and Beasley
Trainer: Tim Yakteen
Breeder: Breeder: Chad Brown & Head of Plains Partners (KY)
Kentucky Derby points: 10
Practical Move was the fourth choice in a five-horse field in the G2 Los Alamitos Futurity, but he took to two turns like a duck to water, drawing away to win by more than three lengths. He has yet to make his 3-year-old debut, but he's been working consistently at Santa Anita and could get a chance in a high-profile Derby prep fairly soon. Odd fact: One of this horse's co-breeders is trainer Chad Brown (he trained stakes-placed dam Ack Naughty from 2014 to 2017).
Practical Move was bred in Kentucky by Chad Brown and Head of Plains Partners, out of the stakes-placed Afleet Alex mare Ack Naughty. He sold to his current ownership for $230,000 at the 2022 OBS Spring sale. Ack Naughty was recently sold, pregnant to Upstart, to Chester and Mary Broman for $500,000 at this year's Keeneland January sale.
#18: Groveland
Pedigree: Street Sense – Lucknow (by Medaglia d'Oro)
Owner: Godolphin
Trainer: Eoin Harty
Breeder: Godolphin (KY)
Kentucky Derby points: 8
Groveland's trip in the Sam F. Davis wasn't quite as poor as the ones experienced by some of his rivals, but he had some rough racing luck. He was shut off on the rail going into the far turn and seemed to lose interest when Litigate swept by, but he re-rallied to run second (and did so in a way where Litigate wasn't pulling away at the wire). He almost certainly needs to move forward off of that effort, but I think there's reason to believe he can do so.
Groveland was bred in Kentucky by Godolphin, out of the winning Medaglia d'Oro mare Lucknow, who also raced a homebred for the operation of Sheikh Mohammed Al-Maktoum. Lucknow, a half-sister to Grade 1 winner Better Lucky, sold in-foal to Frosted for $35,000 at the 2022 Keeneland January sale.
#19: Red Route One
Pedigree: Gun Runner – Red House (by Tapit)
Owner: Winchell Thoroughbreds
Trainer: Steve Asmussen
Breeder: Winchell Thoroughbreds, LLC (KY)
Kentucky Derby points: 13
The owner/trainer combination that suffered a horrendous beat in last year's Derby may be back with another runner this May. Red Route One is still eligible for a first-level allowance, but he's picked up some pretty big checks. He ran third in last year's Breeders' Futurity at Keeneland and rallied from last to be second behind Arabian Knight in the G3 Southwest.
Red Route One was bred in Kentucky by Winchell Thoroughbreds LLC, out of the unraced Tapit mare Red House, and he is a full-brother to stakes-winner Red Run. Red House is herself a Winchell homebred, out of 2014 Broodmare of the Year Fun House, making her a full-sister to champion Untapable and a half-sister to Grade 1 winner Paddy O'Prado.
#20: Shadow Dragon
Pedigree: Army Mule – Fire Assay (by Medaglia d'Oro)
Owner: Peachtree Stable
Trainer: Bill Mott
Breeder: AJ Suited (NY)
Kentucky Derby points: 8
Last October's Sleepy Hollow Stakes turned out to be a pretty significant race. The winner, Arctic Arrogance, has run second in three straight races on the Derby trail. The sixth-place finisher, Shadow Dragon, pretty clearly bounced off of a solid first-out win that day and came back to run a close-up second in the Holy Bull. That race at Gulfstream wasn't the most highly-regarded event, but Gulfstream is also not always kind to closers, and this one ran pretty well in what was just his third lifetime start.
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