The Kentucky Derby prep schedule is in full swing, which means it's time for detailed looks at the horses that could fill the starting gate with Andrew Champagne of Catena Media and The Saratogian's Pink Sheet.
Check back with the Paulick Report regularly for updated rankings that include news, notes, and opinions on the 3-year-olds that figure to take center stage.
The 100-point Kentucky Derby preps have come and gone. With that, the picture for the first Saturday in May is coming more and more into focus.
Only one more prep race is on the calendar. Saturday's Grade 3 Lexington Stakes at Keeneland offers one last chance for Kentucky Derby points. It's a big chance for one contender that probably needs a top-three finish to ensure a spot in the field, and we'll get to that runner in just a bit.
We'll start this list, however, the same way we have since this column returned earlier this year…
#1: Forte
Pedigree: Violence – Queen Caroline (by Blame)
Owner: Repole Stable, St. Elias Stable
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Breeder: South Gate Farm (KY)
Kentucky Derby points: 190
Let me get this straight. Last year's champion 2-year-old male breaks from post #11 at Gulfstream, where horses breaking from post #11 going 1 1/8 miles may as well be starting in Pete Aiello's announcer's booth, in the G1 Florida Derby. He takes dirt the whole way around, gives Mage (a good horse) a two-length head start turning for home, wins anyway to earn his fourth Grade 1 win at a third different track…and according to some in the game, I'm supposed to think his status at the top of this list should be threatened? Nope. To me, Forte is the clear frontrunner in this division heading into the Kentucky Derby, as he has been since last fall.
Forte was bred in Kentucky by South Gate Farm, out of the multiple stakes-winning Blame mare Queen Caroline. He sold for $110,000 at the 2021 Keeneland September Yearling Sale. Amy Moore of South Gate Farm bought Queen Caroline as a yearling for $170,000 at the 2014 Keeneland September sale.
#2: Tapit Trice
Pedigree: Tapit – Danzatrice (by Dunkirk)
Owner: Whisper Hill Farm, Gainesway Stable
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Breeder: Gainesway Thoroughbreds Ltd. (KY)
Kentucky Derby points: 150
Tapit Trice passed a significant test in Saturday's G1 Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland. Breaking from the rail with a history of gate issues and a running style that indicates he needs to be urged hard to stay engaged, there were red flags. However, beneath a brilliant ride from Luis Saez, the second Pletcher trainee in a row on this list ran down perfect-trip runner-up Verifying and likely stamped himself as the Derby's second choice behind his stablemate.
Tapit Trice was bred in Kentucky by Gainesway Thoroughbreds Ltd., out of the Grade 3-placed multiple stakes-winning Dunkirk mare Danzatrice. Tapit Trice sold to Mandy Pope's Whisper Hill Farm for $1.3 million at the 2021 Keeneland September sale. A half-sister to champion Jaywalk, Danzatrice was a $105,000 purchase by Gainesway at the 2014 OBS Spring 2-Year-Olds In Training Sale.
#3: Angel of Empire
Pedigree: Classic Empire – Armony's Angel (by To Honor and Serve)
Owner: Albaugh Family Stables
Trainer: Brad Cox
Breeder: Forgotten Land Investment Inc & Black Diamond Equine Corp. (PA)
Kentucky Derby points: 154
Angel of Empire ran very, very well in the G1 Arkansas Derby. He never looked like a loser at any point, as he rated off a pace that, despite not looking too fast, didn't hold up once the field turned for home. He did a lot of things right at Oaklawn, and he goes into the Derby with two straight high-profile graded stakes wins (having also won the G2 Risen Star earlier this season).
#4: Practical Move
Pedigree: Practical Joke – Ack Naughty (by Afleet Alex)
Owner: Amestoy, Amestoy, and Beasley
Trainer: Tim Yakteen
Breeder: Chad Brown & Head of Plains Partners (KY)
Kentucky Derby points: 160
Practical Move earned a triple-digit Beyer Speed Figure in taking Saturday's G1 Santa Anita Derby. He did what he had to do to keep his spot as the West Coast's top Kentucky Derby threat, but I saw a few things I wasn't crazy about. For the second straight race, he sat a picture-perfect trip, and this time, the wire came just before he could be reeled in. I do not have doubts about his ability, but I can't say the same about my feelings on if he can get the 10-furlong Kentucky Derby trip.
Practical Move was bred in Kentucky by Chad Brown and Head of Plains Partners, out of the stakes-placed Afleet Alex mare Ack Naughty. He sold to his current ownership for $230,000 at the 2022 OBS Spring sale. Ack Naughty was recently sold, pregnant to Upstart, to Chester and Mary Broman for $500,000 at this year's Keeneland January sale.
#5: Derma Sotogake
Pedigree: Mind Your Biscuits – Amour Poesie (by Neo Universe)
Owner: Hiroyuki Asanuma
Trainer: Hidetaka Otonashi
Breeder: Shadai Farm (JPN)
Kentucky Derby points: 100
Perhaps the biggest winner this past weekend was a horse that didn't even run. Derma Sotogake turned heads with his easy score in the UAE Derby. However, when Mandarin Hero, considered a second-tier Japanese horse by some, ran a fantastic second to Practical Move, it spurred a re-evaluation of the Japanese contingent. If a horse from Japan's “lower-level” circuit can run that well against a legitimate Derby prospect, what does it say about a horse that's more highly-regarded in the land of the rising sun?
#6: Kingsbarns
Pedigree: Uncle Mo – Lady Tapit (by Tapit)
Owner: Spendthrift Farm
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Breeder: Parks Investment Group, LLC (KY)
Kentucky Derby points: 100
Kingsbarns never looked like a loser in the G2 Louisiana Derby. He was part of a very slow pace and had plenty left turning for home. It wasn't the fastest Louisiana Derby on record, and a number of closers didn't fire (possibly due to the race shape more than anything else), but Kingsbarns passed his first significant test. In addition, his win going 1 3/16 miles indicates that, if he doesn't run well in Kentucky, it won't be because of that race's 1 1/4-mile distance.
Kingsbarns was bred in Kentucky by Parks Investment Group, out of the Grade 3-placed Tapit mare Lady Tapit, who is herself a half-sister to Grade 1 winner Gozzip Girl. After bringing $250,000 at the 2021 Fasig-Tipton Saratoga sale, the colt sold to Spendthrift Farm for $800,000 at last year's Fasig-Tipton Gulfstream Select 2-Year-Olds In Training Sale.
#7: Mage
Pedigree: Good Magic – Puca (by Big Brown)
Owner: OGMA Investments, Restrepo, Sterling Racing, and CMNWLTH
Trainer: Gustavo Delgado
Breeder: Grandview Equine (KY)
Kentucky Derby points: 50
Mage made a significant move up after running big to be second in the Florida Derby. He didn't break well, but he made an eye-catching move into contention going around the far turn before being run down by the top horse on this list. This is twice in as many two-turn starts that he's found some trouble, which isn't the best thing, but on the other hand, he's inexperienced enough to where he may still be learning and developing. Either way, he showed plenty last time out.
Mage was bred in Kentucky by Grandview Equine, out of the Grade 1-placed stakes-winning Big Brown mare Puca. He brought $235,000 at the 2021 Keeneland September sale, then he sold for $290,000 at last year's Fasig-Tipton Midlantic 2-Year-Olds in Training Sale. Puca sold to Grandview Equine, pregnant to Gun Runner, for $475,000 at the 2018 Fasig-Tipton November Sale.
#8: Verifying
Pedigree: Justify – Diva Delite (by Repent)
Owner: Westerberg, Magnier, Poulin, Smith and Tabor
Trainer: Brad Cox
Breeder: Hunter Valley & Mountmellick Farm, LLC (KY)
Kentucky Derby points: 54
Verifying had a nightmare trip in the G2 Rebel, when he was fourth behind Confidence Game. His journey was much easier Saturday in the Blue Grass, when he used his tactical speed to sit in a perfect spot most of the way. He and Tapit Trice were well, well clear of the rest of that field, and in finishing a close-up second, this colt gives the Cox barn yet another Derby contender.
Verifying was bred in Kentucky by Hunter Valley and Mountmellick Farm, out of the Grade 3-winning Repent mare Diva Delite, making him a half-brother to champion Midnight Bisou. He sold to M.V. Magnier of the Coolmore partnership for $775,000 at the 2021 Keeneland September sale. The breeders purchased Diva Delite for $1.2 million, with Verifying in-utero, at the 2019 Keeneland November sale.
#9: Confidence Game
Pedigree: Candy Ride – Eblouissante (by Bernardini)
Owner: Don't Tell My Wife Stables
Trainer: Keith Desormeaux
Breeder: Summer Wind Equine LLC (KY)
Kentucky Derby points: 57
Confidence Game rallied from fifth to win the G2 Rebel at a price, and there are reasons to be enthusiastic. He won that race the right way and defeated what seemed like a pretty solid group. Two big questions, though: Was it early-season development that moved him forward, or was it the sloppy track he's bred up and down to absolutely love? Also, how comfortable are you betting on a horse that put forth a big effort in February, yet hasn't raced since?
Confidence Game was bred in Kentucky by Summer Wind Equine, out of the winning Bernardini mare Eblouissante. Desormeaux signed the ticket on Confidence Game for $25,000 at the 2021 Keeneland September Sale. Eblouissante, a half-sister to Hall of Famer Zenyatta, was purchased by Summer Wind Farm for $1,434,279, pregnant to Dansili, at the 2016 Tattersalls December Mares Sale.
#10: Disarm
Pedigree: Gun Runner – Easy Tap (by Tapit)
Owner: Winchell Thoroughbreds
Trainer: Steve Asmussen
Breeder: Winchell Thoroughbreds LLC (KY)
Kentucky Derby points: 40
And here's the horse for whom Saturday is a big, big day. Disarm got on the Kentucky Derby leaderboard by running a very solid second in the Louisiana Derby. However, 40 points may very well not be enough to ensure his spot in the starting gate on the first Saturday in May. Because of that, he'll take on 10 others in the Lexington. He'll likely be favored in that event, and just a few more points will give his connections much more security.
Disarm was bred in Kentucky by Winchell Thoroughbreds, out of the winning Tapit mare Easy Tap, who is also the dam of Venezuelan champion Tap Daddy. The Winchell operation purchased Easy Tap for $300,000 at the 2011 Fasig-Tipton July Yearling Sale.
Support our journalism
If you appreciate our work, you can support us by subscribing to our Patreon stream. Learn more.#11: Two Phil's
Pedigree: Hard Spun – Mia Torri (by General Quarters)
Owner: Patricia's Hope, Phillip Sagan
Trainer: Larry Rivelli
Breeder: Phillip Sagan (KY)
Kentucky Derby points: 123
When Jareth Loveberry rode for Rivelli last month, he KNEW he was live (yes, we're still referencing the greatest commercial in horse racing history). Two Phil's dominated in the G3 Jeff Ruby Steaks at Turfway Park and earned some pretty big speed figures (especially compared to the rest of his crop). If they were running the Kentucky Derby over that synthetic track, I'd have him much, much higher on this list. The question is, can he replicate that race on dirt? To run with the likes of Forte, Tapit Trice, and Angel of Empire, he may have to do just that.
Two Phil's was bred in Kentucky by Phillip Sagan, out of the Grade 3-placed stakes-winning General Quarters mare Mia Torri, who Sagan acquired privately during her on-track career.
#12: Lord Miles
Pedigree: Curlin – Lady Esme (by Majestic Warrior)
Owner: Vegso Racing Stable
Trainer: Saffie Joseph, Jr.
Breeder: Vegso Racing Stable (KY)
Kentucky Derby points: 100
Lord Miles entered the Andrew Champagne Gambling Hall of Fame Saturday, when he won the G2 Wood Memorial at odds of 59-1. That race came after clunkers in both the G3 Holy Bull and the G2 Tampa Bay Derby, but he capitalized on some class relief and won despite a bit of a wide trip. Despite his well-deserved spot in my heart, though, my brain tells me that class relief will be gone come Kentucky Derby time. Still, he's better than the two clunkers he ran earlier this season, and he showed that on Saturday afternoon.
Lord Miles is a Kentucky homebred for Vesgo Racing Stable, out of the unraced Majestic Warrior mare Lady Esme, who is herself a Vesgo homebred. His second dam, Come a Callin was also bred and raced by Vesgo. The breeder bought into the family with the third dam, the unraced Twilight Service, who he purchased for $105,000 at the 2004 OBS March Sale.
#13: Hit Show
Pedigree: Candy Ride – Actress (by Tapit)
Owner: Gary and Mary West
Trainer: Brad Cox
Breeder: Gary & Mary West Stables Inc. (KY)
Kentucky Derby points: 60
Hit Show didn't have things easy on Saturday. He broke from post #13 in the Wood, was wide throughout, and then wound up between horses throughout the stretch run. He couldn't hold off Lord Miles, but he did finish second. If you liked him as a Derby prospect before the Wood, you're certainly going to get better odds now that he didn't win his final prep race, and it's not like he ran terribly enough to scare someone off who saw something they liked when he won the G3 Withers earlier this year.
Hit Show was bred in Kentucky by Gary & Mary West Stables Inc., out of the Tapit mare Actress, who was herself a Grade 2 winner as a homebred for the Wests.
#14: Reincarnate
Pedigree: Good Magic – Allanah (by Scat Daddy)
Owner: SF Racing, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables, Robert Masterson, et al
Trainer: Tim Yakteen
Breeder: Woods Edge Farm, LLC (KY)
Kentucky Derby points: 45
A photo for third place in the Arkansas Derby saw Reincarnate edge Rocket Can. In doing so, the gray likely earned enough Derby points to ensure a spot in this year's field (a fourth-place finish would've put him in a precarious spot). Prior to that effort, Reincarnate won the G3 Sham at Santa Anita while in the barn of Bob Baffert before running third in the Rebel for Yakteen (where he earned the rest of his points).
Reincarnate was bred in Kentucky by Woods Edge Farm, out of the stakes-winning Scat Daddy mare Allanah. He sold for $775,000 at the 2021 Keeneland September sale. Woods Edge Farm acquired Allanah, pregnant to Street Boss, for $105,000 at the 2018 Keeneland November sale.
#15: Raise Cain
Pedigree: Violence – Lemon Belle (by Lemon Drop Kid)
Owner: Andrew and Rania Warren
Trainer: Ben Colebrook
Breeder: Rock Ridge Thoroughbreds, LLC (KY)
Kentucky Derby points: 64
Raise Cain romped to a 23-1 upset in the G3 Gotham and stepped up the class ladder in the Blue Grass. He was a well-beaten fifth, but one can argue he may have been third-best behind the runaway top pair. He was last of 10 early and got floated very, very wide turning for home. At a minimum, he showed two turns should not be what gets him beat, and if you're looking for a deep closer on Derby Day to potentially do a Rich Strike impression, perhaps this is one you can talk yourself into.
Raise Cain was bred in Kentucky by Rock Ridge Thoroughbreds, out of the winning Lemon Drop Kid mare Lemon Belle. He sold for $180,000 at the 2021 Keeneland September sale. Rock Ridge Thoroughbreds acquired Lemon Belle, pregnant to Violence, for $285,000 at the 2018 Keeneland November sale.
#16: Rocket Can
Pedigree: Into Mischief – Tension (by Tapit)
Owner: Frank Fletcher Racing
Trainer: Bill Mott
Breeder: Woodford Thoroughbreds, LLC (KY)
Kentucky Derby points: 60
Rocket Can won the G3 Holy Bull before running into Forte in the G2 Fountain of Youth. Owner Frank Fletcher is an Arkansas native, which played a role in this colt shipping to Oaklawn Park for the Arkansas Derby. It's not like he ran terribly to be fourth behind Angel of Empire, but if you were expecting a significant move forward Saturday, that's not what you got. Mott has shipped Rocket Can to Churchill, and this one has more than enough points to make the Derby field, but he added a decision on his status for that race has not been made.
Rocket Can was bred in Kentucky by Woodford Thoroughbreds LLC, out of the placed Tapit mare Tension. Woodford Thoroughbreds bought Tension pregnant to Curlin for $750,000 at the 2017 Keeneland November sale, and sold her at this year's Keeneland January sale.
#17: Continuar
Pedigree: Drefong – Pan de Ring (by King Kamehameha)
Owner: Lion Race Horse Co.
Trainer: Yoshito Yahagi
Breeder: Lake Villa Farm (JPN)
Kentucky Derby points: Invitation
Continuar earned a spot in the field by way of Japan's Road to the Kentucky Derby, and his resume includes a win in the 2022 Cattleya Stakes. Since then, he's run fifth in Saudi Arabia and third in Dubai. Of the Japanese runners, Derma Sotogake appears more well-meant, but as we found out in the Santa Anita Derby, blindly dismissing runners from Japan may prove unwise.
#18: Blazing Sevens
Pedigree: Good Magic – Trophy Girl (by Warrior's Reward)
Owner: Rodeo Creek Racing
Trainer: Chad Brown
Breeder: Tracy Farmer (KY)
Kentucky Derby points: 46
Blazing Sevens returns to this list after salvaging third in the Blue Grass. In doing so, he earned just enough Kentucky Derby points to ensure a spot in the field. Last year's winner of the G1 Champagne, however, hasn't shown he can stretch that form out to two turns quite yet. He's 2-for-3 around one turn, with the lone loss being a third-place finish in the G1 Hopeful. Going two turns, he's 0-for-3, and the third-place finish in the Blue Grass is his only in-the-money finish in those events.
Blazing Sevens was bred in Kentucky by Tracy Farmer, out of the winning Warrior's Reward mare Trophy Girl. After bringing $140,000 as a newly-turned yearling at the 2021 Keeneland January Horses of All Ages Sale, Blazing Sevens sold for $250,000 that summer at the Fasig-Tipton Saratoga Select Yearling Sale. Farmer acquired Trophy Girl as a weanling for $62,000 at the 2013 Fasig-Tipton November Sale.
#19: Jace's Road
Pedigree: Quality Road – Out Post (by Silver Deputy)
Owner: West Point Thoroughbreds, Albaugh Family Stables
Trainer: Brad Cox
Breeder: Colts Neck Stables LLC (KY)
Kentucky Derby points: 45
Jace's Road ran third in the Louisiana Derby. He pressed the very slow pace set by Kingsbarns, and while he couldn't stick with the top two, he had enough in reserve to finish a clear third. Most years, that would be enough to clinch a spot in the Kentucky Derby field. However, if Disarm hits the board in the Lexington, Jace's Road would fall out of that group (due to lower non-restricted stakes earnings than Reincarnate, who also has 45 points).
Jace's Road was bred in Kentucky by Richard Santulli's Colts Neck Stables, out of the stakes-placed Silver Deputy mare Out Post. The colt sold to his current ownership for $510,000 at the 2021 Keeneland September sale. After being purchased as a yearling for $250,000, Out Post raced for Jayeff B Stables, of which Santulli is a partner, then she raced for Santulli alone before entering his broodmare band.
#20: Wild On Ice
Pedigree: Tapizar – Slamitagain (by Grand Slam)
Owner: Frank Sumpter
Trainer: Joel Marr
Breeder: Frank Sumpter (TX)
Kentucky Derby points: 50
We'll finish off the list with a late Triple Crown nominee. Wild On Ice pulled off a 35-1 shocker in the G3 Sunland Derby, and was supplemented to the prestigious series shortly after that effort. After a workout this week at Sunland Park, his connections opted to keep him on track for the Run for the Roses, and it's possible 60-year-old regular rider Ken Tohill becomes the oldest jockey in Kentucky Derby history.
The post The Derby Bubble Presented By Kentucky-Breds: Sorting Out Contenders As The Dust Settles appeared first on Horse Racing News | Paulick Report.
