The Derby Bubble Presented By Kentucky-Breds: Playing ‘Good Trip, Bad Trip’ With The 2023 Field

The Kentucky Derby is days away, which means it's time for detailed looks at the field with Andrew Champagne of Catena Media and The Saratogian's Pink Sheet.

It's time for the final edition of The Derby Bubble. The field for the Run for the Roses is set, and with it comes plenty of speculation from fans and handicappers.

With that in mind, the season finale of this column will include a game called “Good Trip, Bad Trip.”

I'll examine all 20 runners, plus the three also-eligibles. Last year's column in this vein went over really well…right up until a horse I didn't write about drew in off the Also Eligible list and won the darn thing. Never let it be said I make the same mistake twice!

Enough talk; let's dive into the field.

Kentucky-bred contenders will be highlighted in red, and will receive additional analysis into their breeders, broodmares, and auction histories. Pedigree notes are written by Joe Nevills.

#1: Hit Show

Candy Ride colt Hit Show, ridden by Manny Franco, captures the Withers

Pedigree: Candy Ride – Actress (by Tapit)

Owners: Gary and Mary West

Trainer: Brad Cox

Jockey: Manny Franco

Breeder: Gary & Mary West Stables Inc. (KY)

Morning Line Odds: 30-1

Good Trip: Hit Show has enough tactical speed to save a ground-saving spot going into the first turn. Not intimidated by the Derby distance, he's among the first set of horses to make their moves when the real running starts. He's not quite talented enough to win, but he avenges his tough beat in the Grade 2 Wood Memorial by earning a big check.

Bad Trip: The rail compromises Hit Show and he's shuffled back in the early going. This puts the stalking-type up against it, and he struggles to gain forward momentum.

Hit Show was bred in Kentucky by Gary & Mary West Stables Inc., out of the Tapit mare Actress, who was herself a Grade 2 winner as a homebred for the Wests. 

#2: Verifying

Pedigree: Justify – Diva Delite (by Repent)

Owners: Westerberg Limited, Magnier, Poulin, Smith, and Tabor

Trainer: Brad Cox

Jockey: Tyler Gaffalione

Breeder: Hunter Valley & Mountmellick Farm, LLC (KY)

Morning Line Odds: 15-1

Good Trip: Long considered one of the brightest prospects in a loaded Brad Cox barn, Verifying puts it all together. His speed is used as an asset by a rider who knows Churchill Downs as well as anyone, he hits the front turning for home, and unlike in the G1 Blue Grass, he doesn't get caught.

Bad Trip: Like one of his stablemates, the inside draw has the potential to work against him. Verifying doesn't break smoothly, and he's knocked out of his element from the jump (literally). This effort is less his sharp effort in the Blue Grass and more his clunker in the G2 Rebel.

Verifying was bred in Kentucky by Hunter Valley and Mountmellick Farm, out of the Grade 3-winning Repent mare Diva Delite, making him a half-brother to champion Midnight Bisou. He sold to M.V. Magnier of the Coolmore partnership for $775,000 at the 2021 Keeneland September sale. The breeders purchased Diva Delite for $1.2 million, with Verifying in-utero, at the 2019 Keeneland November sale.

#3: Two Phil's

Two Phil's (far outside right, Hard Spun) wins the Jeff Ruby Stakes at Turfway Park on 3-25-23. Jareth Loveberry up, Larry Rivelli trainer, Patricia's Hope owner.

Pedigree: Hard Spun – Mia Torri (by General Quarters)

Owners: Patricia's Hope, Sagan, and Madaket Stables

Trainer: Larry Rivelli

Jockey: Jareth Loveberry

Breeder: Phillip Sagan (KY)

Morning Line Odds: 12-1

Good Trip: The Two Phil's we saw in the G3 Jeff Ruby Steaks is the real deal. The synthetic track form comes with him to Churchill Downs, and he storms past the field turning for home to record a popular win for a group of Kentucky Derby first-timers. Furthermore, in keeping with widespread interest in Rivelli's barn, the classic commercial gets remade in HD and runs on all major television networks through the Preakness.

Bad Trip: Two Phil's bounces off of what was easily a lifetime-best effort. What we see Saturday is the horse that collected minor awards in Louisiana, and that type of effort doesn't get it done against the best of his crop.

Two Phil's was bred in Kentucky by Phillip Sagan, out of the Grade 3-placed stakes-winning General Quarters mare Mia Torri, who Sagan acquired privately during her on-track career.

#4: Confidence Game

Confidence Game, James Graham aboard, following his Rebel Stakes victory

Pedigree: Candy Ride – Eblouissante (by Bernardini)

Owners: Don't Tell My Wife Stables and Ocean Reef Racing

Trainer: Keith Desormeaux

Jockey: James Graham

Breeder: Summer Wind Equine LLC (KY)

Morning Line Odds: 20-1

Good Trip: Keith Desormeaux looks like a genius. Confidence Game shows no signs of rust coming off the bench, and the rest allows him the necessary time to develop as a racehorse. He's not good enough to win, but he adds another significant check to Desormeaux's Derby resume.

Bad Trip: The Confidence Game we saw win the G2 Rebel turns out to need a muddy track, which doesn't seem likely this weekend. A horse bred to love a wet track instead gets a fast one, which doesn't play to his strengths and leads to him being a non-factor.

Confidence Game was bred in Kentucky by Summer Wind Equine, out of the winning Bernardini mare Eblouissante. Desormeaux signed the ticket on Confidence Game for $25,000 at the 2021 Keeneland September Sale. Eblouissante, a half-sister to Hall of Famer Zenyatta, was purchased by Summer Wind Farm for $1,434,279, pregnant to Dansili, at the 2016 Tattersalls December Mares Sale.

#5: Tapit Trice

Luis Saez guides Tapit Trice to a hard-fought victory over Verifying in the G1 Blue Grass

Pedigree: Tapit – Danzatrice (by Dunkirk)

Owners: Whisper Hill Farm and Gainesway Stable

Trainer: Todd Pletcher

Jockey: Luis Saez

Breeder: Gainesway Thoroughbreds Ltd. (KY)

Morning Line Odds: 5-1

Good Trip: Tapit Trice gets off to a smooth start, unlike his last several outings. As a result, Luis Saez doesn't have to work so hard to ensure a smooth journey, and his mount's sheer talent can be put on full display. He runs to his pedigree, wins the Kentucky Derby, and provides a feel-good moment for co-owner Whisper Hill Farm, which lost champion Havre de Grace last week.

Bad Trip: Those gate issues flare up again at an inopportune time. Tapit Trice gets shuffled back in front of 150,000 screaming fans, and not even world-class reinsman Saez can navigate a winning trip in that scenario.

Tapit Trice was bred in Kentucky by Gainesway Thoroughbreds Ltd., out of the Grade 3-placed multiple stakes-winning Dunkirk mare Danzatrice. Tapit Trice sold to Mandy Pope's Whisper Hill Farm for $1.3 million at the 2021 Keeneland September sale. A half-sister to champion Jaywalk, Danzatrice was a $105,000 purchase by Gainesway at the 2014 OBS Spring 2-Year-Olds In Training Sale.

#6: Kingsbarns

Flavien Prat guides Kingsbarns to a front-running Louisiana Derby triumph

Pedigree: Uncle Mo – Lady Tapit (by Tapit)

Owner: Spendthrift Farm

Trainer: Todd Pletcher

Jockey: Jose Ortiz

Breeder: Parks Investment Group, LLC (KY)

Morning Line Odds: 12-1

Good Trip: Kingsbarns finds himself up front with a slow early pace, in a carbon copy of his winning trip from the G2 Louisiana Derby. A near-certainty to be the biggest price of the three Todd Pletcher trainees despite his undefeated record, Kingsbarns hits the top of the stretch with plenty in reserve. He springs an upset that leaves many handicappers wondering how they didn't have an undefeated Pletcher on their tickets.

Bad Trip: Unlike in Louisiana, Kingsbarns has to face legitimate opposition up front early on. With Verifying to his inside and Derma Sotogake to his outside, Kingsbarns is hounded from the opening strides, never gets comfortable, and retreats going around the far turn.

Kingsbarns was bred in Kentucky by Parks Investment Group, out of the Grade 3-placed Tapit mare Lady Tapit, who is herself a half-sister to Grade 1 winner Gozzip Girl. After bringing $250,000 at the 2021 Fasig-Tipton Saratoga sale, the colt sold to Spendthrift Farm for $800,000 at last year's Fasig-Tipton Gulfstream Select 2-Year-Olds In Training Sale.

#7: Reincarnate

Reincarnate and jockey Juan Hernandez win the G3 Sham

Pedigree: Good Magic – Allanah (by Scat Daddy)

Owners: SF Racing, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables, Stonestreet Stables, Masterson, et al

Trainer: Tim Yakteen

Jockey: John Velazquez

Breeder: Woods Edge Farm, LLC (KY)

Morning Line Odds: 50-1

Good Trip: Reincarnate runs to his most recent work, a four-furlong bullet drill at Santa Anita. John Velazquez, who's rarely in the wrong place at the wrong time, gives his mount every chance. He's not good enough to win, but he finishes third or fourth at a big number.

Bad Trip: Reincarnate runs to his last start, where he needed to win a photo for third in the G1 Arkansas Derby to ensure his spot in the Kentucky Derby field. He's up close early but fades when the real running starts.

Reincarnate was bred in Kentucky by Woods Edge Farm, out of the stakes-winning Scat Daddy mare Allanah. He sold for $775,000 at the 2021 Keeneland September sale. Woods Edge Farm acquired Allanah, pregnant to Street Boss, for $105,000 at the 2018 Keeneland November sale.

#8: Mage

Mage breaks his maiden at first asking at Gulfstream Park

Pedigree: Good Magic – Puca (by Big Brown)

Owners: OGMA Investments, Restrepo, Sterling Racing, and CMNWLTH

Trainer: Gustavo Delgado

Jockey: Javier Castellano

Breeder: Grandview Equine (KY)

Morning Line Odds: 15-1

Good Trip: The phenomenon once known as the Apollo Curse is defied for the second time in less than a decade. Mage, who did not run as a 2-year-old, overcomes the gate issues that have plagued him in his two two-turn outings. In doing so, he gets the clean trip he didn't have in the G1 Florida Derby. That allows him to turn the tables on Forte and give his Hall of Fame rider his first-ever Kentucky Derby win.

Bad Trip: They're off, and Mage loses. Those gate issues prove tough to shake, and he once again spots his rivals several lengths right away. That, his inexperience, and the Kentucky Derby setting combine to form an insurmountable barrier.

Mage was bred in Kentucky by Grandview Equine, out of the Grade 1-placed stakes-winning Big Brown mare Puca. He brought $235,000 at the 2021 Keeneland September sale, then he sold for $290,000 at last year's Fasig-Tipton Midlantic 2-Year-Olds in Training Sale. Puca sold to Grandview Equine, pregnant to Gun Runner, for $475,000 at the 2018 Fasig-Tipton November Sale.

#9: Skinner

Curlin colt Skinner kicks clear to break his maiden going a mile Feb. 12 at Santa Anita

Pedigree: Curlin – Winding Way (by Malibu Moon)

Owner: C R K Stable

Trainer: John Shirreffs

Jockey: Juan Hernandez

Breeder: Stonestreet Thoroughbred Holdings LLC (KY)

Morning Line Odds: 20-1

Good Trip: A horse on the improve getting one of the hottest jockeys in the country puts it all together thanks to a closer-friendly race shape. Skinner sits back beneath Juan Hernandez, makes one big run, and lights up the tote board to give his conditioner a second Kentucky Derby victory (18 years after his first with another longshot, Giacomo).

Bad Trip: Skinner turns out to have some hang in him. He's called upon to make his move and passes several tired rivals, but starts spinning his wheels in midstretch and can't stay with the more well-bet horses in this particular race.

Skinner was bred in Kentucky by Stonestreet Thoroughbred Holdings, out of the Grade 3-winning Malibu Moon mare Winding Way. He sold for $40,000 at the 2021 Keeneland September Sale, then he was pinhooked for $510,000 at the 2022 OBS Spring Sale. Stonestreet bought Winding Way for $660,000 at the 2015 Keeneland November sale.

#10: Practical Move

Tim Yakteen with Runhappy Santa Anita Derby winner Practical Move

Pedigree: Practical Joke – Ack Naughty (by Afleet Alex)

Owner: Amestoy, Amestoy, and Beasley

Trainer: Tim Yakteen

Jockey: Ramon Vazquez

Breeder: Chad Brown & Head of Plains Partners (KY)

Morning Line Odds: 10-1

Good Trip: What's seen by some as a history of perfect trips turns out to be a perfect marriage between a horse with tactical speed and a rider who knows how to use it. He sits the stalking trip that wins a lot of Kentucky Derbies, pounces at just the right time, and has enough left to fend off the closers.

Bad Trip: Yep, everything fell into place in the last several races perfectly for this colt. Maybe he faces adversity, or perhaps he's just not a 10-furlong horse. However, he fades to finish in the middle of the pack and goes back to California to regroup.

Practical Move was bred in Kentucky by Chad Brown and Head of Plains Partners, out of the stakes-placed Afleet Alex mare Ack Naughty. He sold to his current ownership for $230,000 at the 2022 OBS Spring sale. Ack Naughty was recently sold, pregnant to Upstart, to Chester and Mary Broman for $500,000 at this year's Keeneland January sale.

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#11: Disarm

Disarm works at Churchill Downs on April 24, 2023

Pedigree: Gun Runner – Easy Tap (by Tapit)

Owner: Winchell Thoroughbreds

Trainer: Steve Asmussen

Jockey: Joel Rosario

Breeder: Winchell Thoroughbreds LLC (KY)

Morning Line Odds: 30-1

Good Trip: Team Epicenter returns with a less-fancied runner than the one they had a year ago, but they leave with a similar check. Disarm runs back to his Louisiana Derby effort, where he was the only horse making up ground in the stretch. He's not quite talented enough to threaten the winner, but he clunks up for second at a big price.

Bad Trip: Disarm's effort is closer to his run in the G3 Lexington, where he finished a distant third and earned just enough points to make the Derby field. Maybe the race shape isn't so closer-friendly, and maybe he's just not quite good enough to beat these.

Disarm was bred in Kentucky by Winchell Thoroughbreds, out of the winning Tapit mare Easy Tap, who is also the dam of Venezuelan champion Tap Daddy. The Winchell operation purchased Easy Tap for $300,000 at the 2011 Fasig-Tipton July Yearling Sale.

#12: Jace's Road

Jace's Road, ridden by Florent Geroux, takes the Gun Runner at Fair Grounds

Pedigree: Quality Road – Out Post (by Silver Deputy)

Owners: Albaugh Family Stables and West Point Thoroughbreds

Trainer: Brad Cox

Jockey: Florent Geroux

Breeder: Colts Neck Stables LLC (KY)

Morning Line Odds: 50-1

Good Trip: One of the longer shots on the board serves as a pace factor in the early going. He presses the early leaders, gives his connections a brief thrill, and sets things up for a closer (possibly the stablemate breaking two stalls to his outside).

Bad Trip: Jace's Road doesn't come close to making the lead. He starts spinning his wheels going up the backstretch and comes up empty against the best horses of his generation.

Jace's Road was bred in Kentucky by Richard Santulli's Colts Neck Stables, out of the stakes-placed Silver Deputy mare Out Post. The colt sold to his current ownership for $510,000 at the 2021 Keeneland September sale. After being purchased as a yearling for $250,000, Out Post raced for Jayeff B Stables, of which Santulli is a partner, then she raced for Santulli alone before entering his broodmare band.

#13: Sun Thunder

Sun Thunder

Pedigree: Into Mischief – Greenfield d'Oro (by Medaglia d'Oro)

Owners: R.T. Racing Stable and Cypress Creek Equine

Trainer: Ken McPeek

Jockey: Brian Hernandez, Jr.

Breeder: Southern Equine Stables, LLC (KY)

Morning Line Odds: 50-1

Good Trip: …well, he's had a bunch of unlucky ones lately, hasn't he? On this occasion, though, Sun Thunder gets room to operate, along with plenty of pace for him to close into. He's not talented enough to win the race, but he cashes a big check for his connections and earns a spot in the hearts of those who use him at a huge number in tri's and super's.

Bad Trip: It's easier than ever to find trouble in a setting like this one, and Sun Thunder's trend of doing so rears up again. As a result, the late-running longshot is never seriously involved.

Sun Thunder was bred in Kentucky by Southern Equine Stables, out of the placed Medaglia d'Oro mare Greenfield d'Oro. He sold as a weanling for $400,000 at the 2020 Keeneland November Breeding Stock Sale. Greenfield d'Oro, a daughter of champion sprinter Maryfield, is a homebred for Southern Equine Stables.

#14: Angel of Empire

Angel of Empire following his win in the Arkansas Derby

Pedigree: Classic Empire – Armony's Angel (by To Honor and Serve)

Owner: Albaugh Family Stables

Trainer: Brad Cox

Jockey: Flavien Prat

Breeder: Forgotten Land Investment Inc & Black Diamond Equine Corp. (PA)

Morning Line Odds: 8-1

Good Trip: A horse that's taken steps forward with every start this season takes another one. Angel of Empire sits a perfect trip beneath his world-class rider, and it's a carbon copy of the G1 Arkansas Derby. He loops the leaders going around the far turn, hits the top of the stretch in front, and powers home as much the best.

Bad Trip: The pace doesn't fall apart as much as his last two starts. Instead of closing into a race that's falling apart, the early pace factors have something left in the tank. As such, Angel of Empire's closing kick is nowhere near as effective, and he doesn't run to his billing.

#15: Forte

Forte passes Mage in deep stretch to win the Florida Derby (G1) under Irad Ortiz, Jr., to collect his sixth win in seven lifetime starts.

Pedigree: Violence – Queen Caroline (by Blame)

Owners: Repole Stable and St. Elias Stable

Trainer: Todd Pletcher

Jockey: Irad Ortiz, Jr.

Breeder: South Gate Farm (KY)

Morning Line Odds: 3-1

Good Trip: Forte does what he's done in every one of his last five starts: He wins. A closer with more tactical speed than it sometimes appears, Forte uses that speed to sit a dream trip a few lengths off the pace. Unlike in the Florida Derby, it's Forte who gets the jump on his rivals, rather than having to sit back, and turning for home, the rest of the field has the reigning 2-year-old champ to catch. That proves easier said than done, and Pletcher gets his third Derby win.

Bad Trip: The speed figure handicappers prove correct, and Forte hasn't moved forward from his 2-year-old season. His usual race is enough for a check, but it's not the big one, and anti-chalk players rejoice at having found a vulnerable favorite on the first Saturday in May.

Forte was bred in Kentucky by South Gate Farm, out of the multiple stakes-winning Blame mare Queen Caroline. He sold for $110,000 at the 2021 Keeneland September Yearling Sale. Amy Moore of South Gate Farm bought Queen Caroline as a yearling for $170,000 at the 2014 Keeneland September sale.

#16: Raise Cain

Violence colt Raise Cain and Jose Lezcano following their win in the G3 Gotham

Pedigree: Violence – Lemon Belle (by Lemon Drop Kid)

Owners: Warren and Warren

Trainer: Ben Colebrook

Jockey: Gerardo Corrales

Breeder: Rock Ridge Thoroughbreds, LLC (KY)

Morning Line Odds: 50-1

Good Trip: Remember how Rich Strike won last year, with a few horses going crazy up front? That scenario sort of materializes for a runner that capitalized on it once already with his score in the G3 Gotham. It doesn't mean Raise Cain wins, but he's moving forward when many others have given up the ghost, and that leads to an in-the-money finish.

Bad Trip: A horse that's 0-for-3 in two-turn races is shown to be a one-turn closer. This just isn't what he wants to do, and when other closers are starting their runs, Raise Cain simply can't keep up.

Raise Cain was bred in Kentucky by Rock Ridge Thoroughbreds, out of the winning Lemon Drop Kid mare Lemon Belle. He sold for $180,000 at the 2021 Keeneland September sale. Rock Ridge Thoroughbreds acquired Lemon Belle, pregnant to Violence, for $285,000 at the 2018 Keeneland November sale.

#17: Derma Sotogake

Derma Sotogake, ridden by Christphe Lemaire, captures the G2 UAE Derby

Pedigree: Mind Your Biscuits – Amour Poesie (by Neo Universe)

Owner: Hiroyuki Asanuma

Trainer: Hidetaka Otonashi

Jockey: Christophe Lemaire

Breeder: Shadai Farm (JPN)

Morning Line Odds: 10-1

Good Trip: Derma Sotogake hits the front early and forgets to stop. His G2 UAE Derby trip repeats itself, and while it looks like the American runners have every chance to reel him in turning for home, they can't do it. Japan wins its first Kentucky Derby, and American breeders are faced with the realization that the rest of the world is catching up.

Bad Trip: The UAE Derby curse continues. Derma Sotogake either can't make the front or has to spend too much energy doing so. This field proves tougher than the one he demolished at Meydan, and he retreats through the field as they turn for home.

#18: Rocket Can

Rocket Can wins the Holy Bull Stakes (G3) at Gulfstream Park for Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott.

Pedigree: Into Mischief – Tension (by Tapit)

Owner: Frank Fletcher

Trainer: Bill Mott

Jockey: Junior Alvarado

Breeder: Woodford Thoroughbreds, LLC (KY)

Morning Line Odds: 30-1

Good Trip: A horse that's been working well since coming to Churchill Downs runs to that tab. Rocket Can isn't the caliber of horses like Forte or Tapit Trice, but he runs back to his early-season efforts at Gulfstream Park rather than his Arkansas Derby clunker. That's good enough to hit the board at a big price.

Bad Trip: The outside post compromises Rocket Can, who needs to be a bit forwardly-placed, isn't quite fast enough to clear most of the field, and loses lots of ground going around the first turn. That makes it tough for him to stick with a few horses that have beaten him once the real running starts.

Rocket Can was bred in Kentucky by Woodford Thoroughbreds LLC, out of the placed Tapit mare Tension. Woodford Thoroughbreds bought Tension pregnant to Curlin for $750,000 at the 2017 Keeneland November sale, and sold her at this year's Keeneland January sale.

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#19: Lord Miles

Lord Miles, with Paco Lopez aboard, winner of the G2 Wood Memorial. (Amira Chichak/NYRA photo)

Pedigree: Curlin – Lady Esme (by Majestic Warrior)

Owner: Vegso Racing Stables

Trainer: Saffie Joseph, Jr.

Breeder: Vegso Racing Stable (KY)

Morning Line Odds: 30-1

Good Trip: His shocking win in the G2 Wood Memorial (you may have seen your fearless scribe tweet about it…) proves to not be a total fluke. Paco Lopez is able to get Lord Miles involved from the jump, and he's shown a wide trip isn't necessarily a disqualifying factor. He hangs on for a small piece of it at yet another big price.

Bad Trip: Lord Miles regresses off of a career-best race last time out. What we see on Saturday isn't the Lord Miles that outdueled Hit Show, but the one that couldn't keep up with Tapit Trice and Rocket Can earlier this year.

Lord Miles is a Kentucky homebred for Vesgo Racing Stable, out of the unraced Majestic Warrior mare Lady Esme, who is herself a Vesgo homebred. His second dam, Come a Callin was also bred and raced by Vesgo. The breeder bought into the family with the third dam, the unraced Twilight Service, who he purchased for $105,000 at the 2004 OBS March Sale.

#20: Continuar

Continuar at Churchill Downs

Pedigree: Drefong – Pan de Ring (by King Kamehameha)

Owner: Lion Race Horse Co.

Trainer: Yoshito Yahagi

Jockey: Ryusei Sakai

Breeder: Lake Villa Farm (JPN)

Morning Line Odds: 50-1

Good Trip: Being totally honest, it's tough to imagine one, but I'll give it a try. Continuar runs a career-best race third off the bench and stays out of trouble with his far-outside post. The relatively clean journey at least allows him to salvage a finish in the top half of the field.

Bad Trip: Continuar has chased Derma Sotogake home three different times, and this race is no different. While one Japanese-bred horse is well-meant, it's not this one, who struggles to stay competitive.

#21 (AE): Cyclone Mischief

Cyclone Mischief

Pedigree: Into Mischief – Areyoucominghere (by Bernardini)

Owner: Albaugh Family Stables and Castleton Lyons

Trainer: Dale Romans

Jockey: Joel Rosario

Breeder: Castleton Lyons & Kilboy Estate (KY)

Morning Line Odds: 30-1

Good Trip: Cyclone Mischief uses his tactical speed to clear most of the field and get comfortable near the front. He moved a bit too soon in the Florida Derby, but Rosario waits just a bit longer. He's not quite good enough to win, but he draws into the race and collects a minor award.

Bad Trip: Rocket Can's “bad trip” scenario lines up pretty well for Cyclone Mischief, too (we're closing in on 3,000 words; work with me, people!). He's got some speed, but it's not enough to clear the field, and the wide trip drains him early.

Cyclone Mischief was bred in Kentucky by Castleton Lyons & Kilboy Estate, out of the unplaced Bernardini mare Areyoucominghere. He sold to Albaugh Family Stables for $450,000 at the 2021 Keeneland September sale. Areyoucominghere was purchased by Castleton Lyons, pregnant to Into Mischief, for $350,000 at the 2018 Keeneland November sale.

#22 (AE): Mandarin Hero

MANDARIN HERO (purple colors)

Pedigree: Shanghai Bobby – Namura Nadeshiko (by Fuji Kiseki)

Owner: Hiroaki Arai

Trainer: Terunobu Fujita

Jockey: Kazushi Kimura

Breeder: Hirano Bokujo (JPN)

Morning Line Odds: 20-1

Good Trip: A horse that's never run a bad race produces another big effort. The race shape proves to be friendly to closers, and Mandarin Hero picks off most of the field with his big late kick. Maybe it's not enough to get him into the winner's circle, but it IS enough to remind folks that Japanese breeders know what they're doing.

Bad Trip: The Santa Anita Derby comes back as a poor prep race. What was seen as Mandarin Hero nearly nailing Practical Move on the wire is actually Practical Move running up against his own distance limitations, and this one struggles against the rest of the crop.

#23 (AE): King Russell

Pedigree: Creative Cause – Believe You Will (by Proud Citizen)

Owner: Brereton Jones and Naber Racing

Trainer: Ron Moquett

Jockey: Rafael Bejarano

Breeder: Brereton C. Jones (KY)

Morning Line Odds: 50-1

Good Trip: A closer miraculously drew in off of the AE list last year and had everything go his way. King Russell is an outsider in both post and ability, but he HAS improved with experience and finished a “best of the rest” second behind Angel of Empire at Oaklawn Park. The race collapses, and he comes rolling late for a small piece of the pie.

Bad Trip: King Russell was 58-1 in the Arkansas Derby, and that effort is revealed to be an outlier. A horse still eligible for a first-level allowance is left with far too much to do late.

King Russell was bred in Kentucky by Brereton Jones of Airdrie Stud, out of the unraced Proud Citizen mare Believe You Will, who is herself a homebred full-sister to Jones' 2012 Kentucky Oaks winner Believe You Can. Second dam El Fasto was also a homebred for Jones.

The post The Derby Bubble Presented By Kentucky-Breds: Playing ‘Good Trip, Bad Trip’ With The 2023 Field appeared first on Horse Racing News | Paulick Report.

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