The Kentucky Derby prep schedule is starting to ramp up, which means it's time for detailed looks at the horses that could fill the starting gate with Andrew Champagne of Catena Media and The Saratogian's Pink Sheet.
Check back with the Paulick Report regularly for updated rankings that include news, notes, and opinions on the 3-year-olds that figure to take center stage.
Three 50-point Kentucky Derby preps have come and gone. Last year's top 2-year-old came back with a vengeance in the Fountain of Youth, a Tim Yakteen trainee won the San Felipe (though perhaps not the one many thought would get the job done), and a big price came home in the Gotham.
Several efforts resulted in considerable changes to this list. However, the top remains unchanged, and for good reason. Let's get this week's Derby Bubble off to an unsurprising start…
Kentucky-bred contenders will be highlighted in red, and will receive additional analysis into their breeders, broodmares, and auction histories. Pedigree notes are written by Joe Nevills.
#1: Forte
Pedigree: Violence – Queen Caroline (by Blame)
Owner: Repole Stable, St. Elias Stable
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Breeder: South Gate Farm (KY)
Kentucky Derby points: 90
It's impossible to start anywhere else. Forte was clearly the best 2-year-old of his class a season ago, and he never looked like a loser in Saturday's G2 Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream Park. Even scarier for his rivals is the fact that this was his first race since the Breeders' Cup, and an effort he may very well have needed. If there's further improvement in store between now and the first Saturday in May…yikes.
Forte was bred in Kentucky by South Gate Farm, out of the multiple stakes-winning Blame mare Queen Caroline. He sold for $110,000 at the 2021 Keeneland September Yearling Sale. Amy Moore of South Gate Farm bought Queen Caroline as a yearling for $170,000 at the 2014 Keeneland September sale.
#2: Arabian Knight
Pedigree: Uncle Mo – Borealis Night (by Astrology)
Owner: Zedan Racing Stables
Trainer: Tim Yakteen
Breeder: Corser Thoroughbreds LLC (KY)
Kentucky Derby points: 0
Arabian Knight romped in two starts, including January's G3 Southwest at Oaklawn Park. That day's runner-up, Red Route One, came back to flatter this one a bit by running a close-up second to Confidence Game in the G2 Rebel. Arabian Knight may only have one chance to earn Kentucky Derby points, but it's likely he'll be a pretty heavy favorite in that outing, and for good reason.
Arabian Knight was bred in Kentucky by Corser Thoroughbreds, out of the unplaced Astrology mare Borealis Night. He sold to Scott and Evan Dilworth for $250,000 at the 2021 Keeneland September Sale, then he was purchased by Zedan Racing Stables for $2.3 million at last year's Ocala Breeders' Sales Co. Spring 2-Year-Olds in Training Sale. Borealis Night, a product of the Stonestreet Farm breeding program, was purchased by Corser Thoroughbreds with Arabian Knight in utero for $285,000 at the 2019 Keeneland November Breeding Stock Sale.
#3: Instant Coffee
Pedigree: Bolt d'Oro – Follow No One (by Uncle Mo)
Owner: Gold Square LLC
Trainer: Brad Cox
Breeder: Sagamore Farm (KY)
Kentucky Derby points: 32
Instant Coffee rallied from last to first to win the G3 Lecomte, and he runs like a horse that will have no problem getting the Derby's 1 1/4-mile distance. He also has a graded stakes win over the Churchill Downs surface, which came in last year's Kentucky Jockey Club. He's back on the work tab, which is great to see, and his next start will likely come in the G2 Louisiana Derby.
Instant Coffee was bred in Kentucky by Sagamore Farm, out of the stakes-placed Uncle Mo mare Follow No One. He hammered for $200,000 at the 2021 Keeneland September sale. Sagamore Farm purchased Follow No One for $100,000 at the 2016 OBS Spring 2-Year-Olds in Training Sale.
#4: Hit Show
Pedigree: Candy Ride – Actress (by Tapit)
Owner: Gary and Mary West
Trainer: Brad Cox
Breeder: Gary & Mary West Stables Inc. (KY)
Kentucky Derby points: 20
A winner of three of four starts to date, Hit Show cruised home to win the G3 Withers at Aqueduct. It didn't seem like a great field, but he won the right way, overcoming some traffic and having plenty left when the field turned for home. Last year's Withers produced an eventual Preakness winner in Early Voting, and this year's renewal might age well, too.
Hit Show was bred in Kentucky by Gary & Mary West Stables Inc., out of the Tapit mare Actress, who was herself a Grade 2 winner as a homebred for the Wests.
#5: Practical Move
Pedigree: Practical Joke – Ack Naughty (by Afleet Alex)
Owner: Amestoy, Amestoy, and Beasley
Trainer: Tim Yakteen
Breeder: Chad Brown & Head of Plains Partners (KY)
Kentucky Derby points: 60
Practical Move was on this list when it kicked off last month, fell off last week, and returns with a vengeance. His win in the G2 San Felipe assures him of enough points to make the Kentucky Derby field, and it was his second straight graded stakes win on the SoCal circuit. If there's anything to nitpick, it's that he had a perfect trip Saturday at Santa Anita, but on the other hand, it was his tactical speed that got him into striking position in the first place.
Practical Move was bred in Kentucky by Chad Brown and Head of Plains Partners, out of the stakes-placed Afleet Alex mare Ack Naughty. He sold to his current ownership for $230,000 at the 2022 OBS Spring sale. Ack Naughty was recently sold, pregnant to Upstart, to Chester and Mary Broman for $500,000 at this year's Keeneland January sale.
#6: Litigate
Pedigree: Blame – Salsa Diavola (by Mineshaft)
Owner: Centennial Farms
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Breeder: Nursery Place, Donaldson & Broadbent (KY)
Kentucky Derby points: 20
Unlike many of his rivals in the G3 Sam F. Davis, Litigate sat a picture-perfect trip beneath Luis Saez. As a result, the Todd Pletcher trainee got the money and stamped himself as a Derby contender. He was certainly helped by others in the field having considerable traffic trouble, but he's lightly-raced and bred to improve with both distance and experience.
Litigate was bred in Kentucky by Nursery Place, Donaldson & Broadbent, out of the unplaced Mineshaft mare Salsa Diavola. Centennial Farms purchased Litigate for $370,000 at the 2021 Keeneland September sale. Salsa Diavola was acquired privately after she was claimed for $12,500 out of a Woodbine maiden claiming race in November 2016.
#7: Tapit Trice
Pedigree: Tapit – Danzatrice (by Dunkirk)
Owner: Whisper Hill Farm, Gainesway Stable
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Breeder: Gainesway Thoroughbreds Ltd. (KY)
Kentucky Derby points: 0
Tapit Trice turned plenty of heads in his first start against winners. He aired by eight lengths against allowance foes at Gulfstream Park and ran the last furlong of the one-mile race in just over 12 seconds. He'll likely be a very heavy favorite in Saturday's G2 Tampa Bay Derby despite going up against 10 rivals, and anything close to that last-out effort would make this runner tough to beat.
Tapit Trice was bred in Kentucky by Gainesway Thoroughbreds Ltd., out of the Grade 3-placed multiple stakes-winning Dunkirk mare Danzatrice. Tapit Trice sold to Mandy Pope's Whisper Hill Farm for $1.3 million at the 2021 Keeneland September sale. A half-sister to champion Jaywalk, Danzatrice was a $105,000 purchase by Gainesway at the 2014 OBS Spring 2-Year-Olds In Training Sale.
#8: Geaux Rocket Ride
Pedigree: Candy Ride – Beyond Grace (by Uncle Mo)
Owner: Pin Oak Stud
Trainer: Richard Mandella
Breeder: OXO Equine LLC (KY)
Kentucky Derby points: 20
It spoke volumes that Richard Mandella opted to run Geaux Rocket Ride in the San Felipe off of a single prior outing. The colt rewarded his Hall of Fame conditioner with a strong second, one where he re-rallied after being shuffled back on the far turn. In doing so, he showed plenty of grit, and that, combined with a pedigree that hints more distance will be right up his alley, inspires some confidence moving forward.
Geaux Rocket Ride was bred in Kentucky by Larry Best's OXO Equine, out of the the unplaced Uncle Mo mare Beyond Grace. He sold for $350,000 at the 2021 Fasig-Tipton July Yearling Sale. Best purchased Beyond Grace for $1.5 million at the 2017 Fasig-Tipton Gulfstream Selected 2-Year-Olds in Training Sale.
#9: Angel of Empire
Pedigree: Classic Empire – Armony's Angel (by To Honor and Serve)
Owner: Albaugh Family Stables
Trainer: Brad Cox
Breeder: Forgotten Land Investment Inc & Black Diamond Equine Corp. (PA)
Kentucky Derby points: 54
Angel of Empire all but assured a spot in the Derby starting gate with his win in the G2 Risen Star. He was a big price that day, but outside of a turf try at Kentucky Downs last fall, he hasn't run a bad race to date. His lone other defeat was a second to Victory Formation in the Smarty Jones when that one got loose on the lead, and a win going 1 1/8 miles isn't something most of these horses have on their resumes yet.
#10: Confidence Game
Pedigree: Candy Ride – Eblouissante (by Bernardini)
Owner: Don't Tell My Wife Stables
Trainer: Keith Desormeaux
Breeder: Summer Wind Equine LLC (KY)
Kentucky Derby points: 57
Confidence Game rallied from fifth to win the Rebel at a price, and there are reasons to be enthusiastic. He won that race the right way and defeated what seemed like a pretty solid group. The big question: Was it early-season development that moved him forward, or was it the sloppy track he's bred up and down to absolutely love? Hopefully, we'll get an answer sooner rather than later.
Confidence Game was bred in Kentucky by Summer Wind Equine, out of the winning Bernardini mare Eblouissante. Desormeaux signed the ticket on Confidence Game for $25,000 at the 2021 Keeneland September Sale. Eblouissante, a half-sister to Hall of Famer Zenyatta, was purchased by Summer Wind Farm for $1,434,279, pregnant to Dansili, at the 2016 Tattersalls December Mares Sale.
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If you appreciate our work, you can support us by subscribing to our Patreon stream. Learn more.#11: Rocket Can
Pedigree: Into Mischief – Tension (by Tapit)
Owner: Frank Fletcher Racing
Trainer: Bill Mott
Breeder: Woodford Thoroughbreds, LLC (KY)
Kentucky Derby points: 40
Much was made about the quality (or lack thereof) in the G3 Holy Bull, which Rocket Can won. However, he came back to run second behind Forte in the Fountain of Youth, and there's no shame in chasing last year's champion 2-year-old male home. Bill Mott knows how to develop a horse with experience and seasoning, so this one can't be counted out (especially since he likely already has enough points to make the Derby field).
Rocket Can was bred in Kentucky by Woodford Thoroughbreds LLC, out of the placed Tapit mare Tension. Woodford Thoroughbreds bought Tension pregnant to Curlin for $750,000 at the 2017 Keeneland November sale, and sold her at this year's Keeneland January sale.
#12: Raise Cain
Pedigree: Violence – Lemon Belle (by Lemon Drop Kid)
Owner: Andrew and Rania Warren
Trainer: Ben Colebrook
Kentucky Derby points: 50
I'd wager I have Raise Cain higher than many who author similar lists. It's true there are things to nitpick about his win in the G3 Gotham. However, I really liked that he overcame some adversity. He was stopped going around the far turn and had an excuse to spit the bit, but he resumed his rally and wound up romping by more than seven lengths. Raise Cain's record looks far better if you toss the clunker he ran over Turfway Park's synthetic surface, and I think there's plenty to intrigue those looking for bigger prices on the Derby trail.
Raise Cain was bred in Kentucky by Rock Ridge Thoroughbreds, out of the winning Lemon Drop Kid mare Lemon Belle. He sold for $180,000 at the 2021 Keeneland September sale. Rock Ridge Thoroughbreds acquired Lemon Belle, pregnant to Violence, for $285,000 at the 2018 Keeneland November sale.
#13: Dubyuhnell
Pedigree: Good Magic – Wild Gams (by Forest Wildcat)
Owner: West Paces Racing, Stonestreet Stables
Trainer: Danny Gargan
Breeder: Stonestreet Thoroughbred Holdings LLC (KY)
Kentucky Derby points: 10
Dubyuhnell ran a non-threatening eighth in the Sam F. Davis, but that effort looks like one you can draw a line through. Like several other runners in that race, he had a nightmarish trip, and the finish was a result of that rather than a regression or lack of ability. Assuming he's bounced out of that race in good health, the G2 Remsen winner will almost certainly get another shot at Kentucky Derby points later this season.
Dubyuhnell was bred in Kentucky by Stonestreet Thoroughbred Holdings, out of the multiple Grade 3-winning Forest Wildcat mare Wild Gams, whose runners also include Grade 2 winner Cazadero, stakes winner Mt. Brave, and Grade 3-placed Almost Famous. Dubyuhnell brought $400,000 at the 2021 Keeneland September Sale, while Stonestreet Thoroughbred Holdings secured Wild Gams as a broodmare prospect for $1 million at the 2008 Keeneland November sale.
#14: Red Route One
Pedigree: Gun Runner – Red House (by Tapit)
Owner: Winchell Thoroughbreds
Trainer: Steve Asmussen
Breeder: Winchell Thoroughbreds, LLC (KY)
Kentucky Derby points: 33
Red Route One picked up another significant check when he rallied to finish second behind Confidence Game in the Rebel. He's still eligible for a first-level allowance race, but he's run enough big races in big spots to be seventh on the Derby leaderboard as of this writing. He doesn't appear to be quite as talented as Epicenter, who ran second for these connections one year ago, but he could give Steve Asmussen another shot at the Derby win that has, to this point, eluded him.
Red Route One was bred in Kentucky by Winchell Thoroughbreds LLC, out of the unraced Tapit mare Red House, and he is a full-brother to stakes-winner Red Run. Red House is herself a Winchell homebred, out of 2014 Broodmare of the Year Fun House, making her a full-sister to champion Untapable and a half-sister to Grade 1 winner Paddy O'Prado.
#15: Kingsbarns
Pedigree: Uncle Mo – Lady Tapit (by Tapit)
Owner: Spendthrift Farm
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Breeder: Parks Investment Group, LLC (KY)
Kentucky Derby points: 0
One day after Litigate won the Sam F. Davis at Tampa Bay Downs, stablemate Kingsbarns demolished a first-level allowance group by nearly eight lengths over the same surface. It was just his second lifetime start, he didn't make his career debut until Jan. 14 of this year, and his first published work since that Tampa Bay win came last Friday. However, there's no denying his potential, and he'll almost certainly get a shot at a 100-point Kentucky Derby prep race in a few weeks.
Kingsbarns was bred in Kentucky by Parks Investment Group, out of the Grade 3-placed Tapit mare Lady Tapit, who is herself a half-sister to Grade 1 winner Gozzip Girl. After bringing $250,000 at the 2021 Fasig-Tipton Saratoga sale, the colt sold to Spendthrift Farm for $800,000 at last year's Fasig-Tipton Gulfstream Select 2-Year-Olds In Training Sale.
#16: Sun Thunder
Pedigree: Into Mischief – Greenfield d'Oro (by Medaglia d'Oro)
Owner: R.T. Racing, Cypress Creek Equine
Trainer: Ken McPeek
Breeder: Southern Equine Stables, LLC (KY)
Kentucky Derby points: 24
Sun Thunder couldn't keep up with Arabian Knight two back in the Southwest, where he ran a distant fourth, but stepped forward to run a close-up second in the Risen Star. He broke last that day but put forth a big rally and was outkicked by only Angel of Empire. Another in-the-money finish likely puts him in the Derby starting gate, which would give McPeek a chance at the one Triple Crown race he has yet to win.
Sun Thunder was bred in Kentucky by Southern Equine Stables, out of the placed Medaglia d'Oro mare Greenfield d'Oro. He sold as a weanling for $400,000 at the 2020 Keeneland November Breeding Stock Sale. Greenfield d'Oro, a daughter of champion sprinter Maryfield, is a homebred for Southern Equine Stables.
#17: Mage
Pedigree: Good Magic – Puca (by Big Brown)
Owner: OGMA Investments, Restrepo, Sterling Racing, and CMNWLTH
Trainer: Gustavo Delgado
Breeder: Grandview Equine (KY)
Kentucky Derby points: 10
Like Geaux Rocket Ride, Mage was aggressively placed in a graded stakes race after a first-out maiden win, and he had an unlucky trip in the Fountain of Youth. He moved early (and wide) after a slow start, was between horses around the far turn, and couldn't keep up with Forte. An argument can be made he was second-best in that event, and I hope he gets another shot at Derby points in a few weeks.
Mage was bred in Kentucky by Grandview Equine, out of the Grade 1-placed stakes-winning Big Brown mare Puca. He brought $235,000 at the 2021 Keeneland September sale, then he sold for $290,000 at last year's Fasig-Tipton Midlantic 2-Year-Olds in Training Sale. Puca sold to Grandview Equine, pregnant to Gun Runner, for $475,000 at the 2018 Fasig-Tipton November Sale.
#18: Skinner
Pedigree: Curlin – Winding Way (by Malibu Moon)
Owner: C R K Stable
Trainer: John Shirreffs
Kentucky Derby points: 15
The final new addition to this list, Skinner made a big middle move in the San Felipe before flattening out a bit to be third. It's possible he was asked for too much too early, and he didn't save much ground while making his move. A luckier trip next time out may very well get him the points he needs to make the Derby field, and he's got a pedigree that indicates more distance won't be an issue.
Skinner was bred in Kentucky by Stonestreet Thoroughbred Holdings, out of the Grade 3-winning Malibu Moon mare Winding Way. He sold for $40,000 at the 2021 Keeneland September Sale, then he was pinhooked for $510,000 at the 2022 OBS Spring Sale. Stonestreet bought Winding Way for $660,000 at the 2015 Keeneland November sale.
#19: Arctic Arrogance
Pedigree: Frosted – Modest Maven (by Uncle Mo)
Owner: Chester and Mary Broman
Trainer: Linda Rice
Breeder: Chester Broman & Mary R. Broman (NY)
Kentucky Derby points: 16
Arctic Arrogance has yet to finish out of the top two through six career starts. He set a pressured pace in the Withers and had little left when Hit Show came running, but he held second while well clear of the rest of that field. He missed the Gotham, which was unfortunate, but he returned to the work tab Wednesday and remains possible for next month's G2 Wood Memorial.
#20: Two Phil's
Pedigree: Hard Spun – Mia Torri (by General Quarters)
Owner: Patricia's Hope, Phillip Sagan
Trainer: Larry Rivelli
Breeder: Phillip Sagan (KY)
Kentucky Derby points: 23
Rivelli? I'll include Rivelli (yes, this will be a running gag for as long as this horse is in the mix). The Risen Star wasn't kind to horses near the front. Of the top six after six furlongs, only Two Phil's, who was third then and at the wire, finished in the top five. In finishing third, he beat some pretty accomplished horses, and that's enough to keep him (and the homages to the greatest horse racing commercial in media history) on this list.
Two Phil's was bred in Kentucky by Phillip Sagan, out of the Grade 3-placed stakes-winning General Quarters mare Mia Torri, who Sagan acquired privately during her on-track career.
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