The Kentucky Derby prep schedule is in full swing, which means it's time for detailed looks at the horses that could fill the starting gate with Andrew Champagne of Catena Media and The Saratogian's Pink Sheet.
Check back with the Paulick Report regularly for updated rankings that include news, notes, and opinions on the 3-year-olds that figure to take center stage.
It's crunch time on the road to the Kentucky Derby. A pair of 100-point preps were run last weekend, and we've got three on tap this coming Saturday that feature plenty of horses on this list.
Before we dive in, allow me time for a reminder and two honorable mentions. This, as mentioned last week, is turning into a hybrid list. It's not a straight ranking of 3-year-olds, but a ranking of horses likely to make the Kentucky Derby starting gate.
The two honorable mentions are Instant Coffee and National Treasure. Instant Coffee got bumped off by horses with more Derby points, while National Treasure needs a top-two finish in Saturday's Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby to ensure a spot in the 20-horse field. Both are immensely talented horses, and a straight “most talented horses in the division” list would have them on it in fairly high spots, but they miss out for those reasons (at least for right now).
With that out of the way, let's dive right in to a list led by the same horse that's topped my rankings since they started…
Kentucky-bred contenders will be highlighted in red, and will receive additional analysis into their breeders, broodmares, and auction histories. Pedigree notes are written by Joe Nevills.
#1: Forte
Pedigree: Violence – Queen Caroline (by Blame)
Owner: Repole Stable, St. Elias Stable
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Breeder: South Gate Farm (KY)
Kentucky Derby points: 190
Let me get this straight. Last year's champion 2-year-old male breaks from post #11 at Gulfstream Park, where horses breaking from post #11 going 1 1/8 miles may as well be starting in Pete Aiello's announcer's booth, in last Saturday's G1 Florida Derby. He takes dirt the whole way around, gives Mage (a good horse) a two-length head start turning for home, wins anyway to earn his fourth Grade 1 win at a third different track…and according to some in the game, I'm supposed to think his status at the top of this list should be threatened? Nope. To me, Forte is the clear frontrunner in this division heading into the Kentucky Derby, as he has been since last fall.
Forte was bred in Kentucky by South Gate Farm, out of the multiple stakes-winning Blame mare Queen Caroline. He sold for $110,000 at the 2021 Keeneland September Yearling Sale. Amy Moore of South Gate Farm bought Queen Caroline as a yearling for $170,000 at the 2014 Keeneland September sale.
#2: Angel of Empire
Pedigree: Classic Empire – Armony's Angel (by To Honor and Serve)
Owner: Albaugh Family Stables
Trainer: Brad Cox
Breeder: Forgotten Land Investment Inc & Black Diamond Equine Corp. (PA)
Kentucky Derby points: 154
Don't get me wrong, though: Angel of Empire ran very, very well in Saturday's G1 Arkansas Derby. He never looked like a loser at any point, as he rated off a pace that, despite not looking too fast, didn't hold up once the field turned for home. He did a lot of things right at Oaklawn, and he goes into the Derby with two straight high-profile graded stakes wins (having also won the G2 Risen Star earlier this season).
#3: Tapit Trice
Pedigree: Tapit – Danzatrice (by Dunkirk)
Owner: Whisper Hill Farm, Gainesway Stable
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Breeder: Gainesway Thoroughbreds Ltd. (KY)
Kentucky Derby points: 50
Tapit Trice was visually impressive in the G2 Tampa Bay Derby. He broke slowly and was pumped on throughout by Luis Saez, but ran by them all and looked like a horse that will have no problems with even more distance. There are some red flags here, though. He's broken slowly a few times now, and it's not like he was rallying past world-beaters. It might be far tougher to run like that against stiffer competition, but the plan is for him to get that test in this Saturday's G1 Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland. The question is, can he overcome the rail draw?
Tapit Trice was bred in Kentucky by Gainesway Thoroughbreds Ltd., out of the Grade 3-placed multiple stakes-winning Dunkirk mare Danzatrice. Tapit Trice sold to Mandy Pope's Whisper Hill Farm for $1.3 million at the 2021 Keeneland September sale. A half-sister to champion Jaywalk, Danzatrice was a $105,000 purchase by Gainesway at the 2014 OBS Spring 2-Year-Olds In Training Sale.
#4: Hit Show
Pedigree: Candy Ride – Actress (by Tapit)
Owner: Gary and Mary West
Trainer: Brad Cox
Breeder: Gary & Mary West Stables Inc. (KY)
Kentucky Derby points: 20
A winner of three of four starts to date, Hit Show cruised home to win the G3 Withers Stakes at Aqueduct. It didn't seem like a great field, but he won the right way, overcoming some traffic and having plenty left when the field turned for home. His final Derby prep comes in Saturday's G2 Wood Memorial at Aqueduct, where he figures to be a pretty heavy favorite despite drawing post #13 in a 13-horse field.
Hit Show was bred in Kentucky by Gary & Mary West Stables Inc., out of the Tapit mare Actress, who was herself a Grade 2 winner as a homebred for the Wests.
#5: Practical Move
Pedigree: Practical Joke – Ack Naughty (by Afleet Alex)
Owner: Amestoy, Amestoy, and Beasley
Trainer: Tim Yakteen
Breeder: Chad Brown & Head of Plains Partners (KY)
Kentucky Derby points: 60
Practical Move's win in the G2 San Felipe assures him of enough points to make the Kentucky Derby field, and it was his second straight graded stakes win on the SoCal circuit. If there's anything to nitpick, it's that he had a perfect trip that day, but on the other hand, it was his tactical speed that got him into striking position in the first place. He'll have another chance to solidify his status in Saturday's Santa Anita Derby.
Practical Move was bred in Kentucky by Chad Brown and Head of Plains Partners, out of the stakes-placed Afleet Alex mare Ack Naughty. He sold to his current ownership for $230,000 at the 2022 OBS Spring sale. Ack Naughty was recently sold, pregnant to Upstart, to Chester and Mary Broman for $500,000 at this year's Keeneland January sale.
#6: Geaux Rocket Ride
Pedigree: Candy Ride – Beyond Grace (by Uncle Mo)
Owner: Pin Oak Stud
Trainer: Richard Mandella
Breeder: OXO Equine LLC (KY)
Kentucky Derby points: 20
It spoke volumes that Richard Mandella opted to run Geaux Rocket Ride in the San Felipe off of a single prior outing. The colt rewarded his Hall of Fame conditioner with a strong second, one where he re-rallied after being shuffled back on the far turn. In doing so, he showed plenty of grit, and that, combined with a pedigree that hints more distance will be right up his alley, inspires some confidence moving forward. He will, however, need to earn some points Saturday at Santa Anita to ensure a spot in the Kentucky Derby starting gate.
Geaux Rocket Ride was bred in Kentucky by Larry Best's OXO Equine, out of the the unplaced Uncle Mo mare Beyond Grace. He sold for $350,000 at the 2021 Fasig-Tipton July Yearling Sale. Best purchased Beyond Grace for $1.5 million at the 2017 Fasig-Tipton Gulfstream Selected 2-Year-Olds in Training Sale.
#7: Kingsbarns
Pedigree: Uncle Mo – Lady Tapit (by Tapit)
Owner: Spendthrift Farm
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Breeder: Parks Investment Group, LLC (KY)
Kentucky Derby points: 100
Kingsbarns never looked like a loser in the G2 Louisiana Derby. He was part of a very slow pace and had plenty left turning for home. It wasn't the fastest Louisiana Derby on record, and a number of closers didn't fire (possibly due to the race shape more than anything else), but Kingsbarns passed his first significant test. In addition, his win going 1 3/16 miles indicates that, if he doesn't run well in Kentucky, it won't be because of that race's 1 1/4-mile distance.
Kingsbarns was bred in Kentucky by Parks Investment Group, out of the Grade 3-placed Tapit mare Lady Tapit, who is herself a half-sister to Grade 1 winner Gozzip Girl. After bringing $250,000 at the 2021 Fasig-Tipton Saratoga sale, the colt sold to Spendthrift Farm for $800,000 at last year's Fasig-Tipton Gulfstream Select 2-Year-Olds In Training Sale.
#8: Mage
Pedigree: Good Magic – Puca (by Big Brown)
Owner: OGMA Investments, Restrepo, Sterling Racing, and CMNWLTH
Trainer: Gustavo Delgado
Breeder: Grandview Equine (KY)
Kentucky Derby points: 50
Mage makes a significant move up this week after running big to be second in the Florida Derby. He didn't break well Saturday, but he made an eye-catching move into contention going around the far turn before being run down by the top horse on this list. This is twice in as many two-turn starts that he's found some trouble, which isn't the best thing, but on the other hand, he's inexperienced enough to where he may still be learning and developing. Either way, he showed plenty this past weekend.
Mage was bred in Kentucky by Grandview Equine, out of the Grade 1-placed stakes-winning Big Brown mare Puca. He brought $235,000 at the 2021 Keeneland September sale, then he sold for $290,000 at last year's Fasig-Tipton Midlantic 2-Year-Olds in Training Sale. Puca sold to Grandview Equine, pregnant to Gun Runner, for $475,000 at the 2018 Fasig-Tipton November Sale.
#9: Confidence Game
Pedigree: Candy Ride – Eblouissante (by Bernardini)
Owner: Don't Tell My Wife Stables
Trainer: Keith Desormeaux
Breeder: Summer Wind Equine LLC (KY)
Kentucky Derby points: 57
Confidence Game rallied from fifth to win the G2 Rebel at a price, and there are reasons to be enthusiastic. He won that race the right way and defeated what seemed like a pretty solid group. The big question: Was it early-season development that moved him forward, or was it the sloppy track he's bred up and down to absolutely love? Hopefully, we'll get an answer sooner rather than later.
Confidence Game was bred in Kentucky by Summer Wind Equine, out of the winning Bernardini mare Eblouissante. Desormeaux signed the ticket on Confidence Game for $25,000 at the 2021 Keeneland September Sale. Eblouissante, a half-sister to Hall of Famer Zenyatta, was purchased by Summer Wind Farm for $1,434,279, pregnant to Dansili, at the 2016 Tattersalls December Mares Sale.
#10: Disarm
Pedigree: Gun Runner – Easy Tap (by Tapit)
Owner: Winchell Thoroughbreds
Trainer: Steve Asmussen
Breeder: Winchell Thoroughbreds LLC (KY)
Kentucky Derby points: 40
There was a lot to like about Disarm's run in the Louisiana Derby. He had significant traffic trouble and rated in a race with a pretty slow pace. However, he was the closer moving best of all late in just the fourth start of his young career. He's bred to go long, and the 10-furlong distance of the Run for the Roses shouldn't be a problem.
Disarm was bred in Kentucky by Winchell Thoroughbreds, out of the winning Tapit mare Easy Tap, who is also the dam of Venezuelan champion Tap Daddy. The Winchell operation purchased Easy Tap for $300,000 at the 2011 Fasig-Tipton July Yearling Sale.
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If you appreciate our work, you can support us by subscribing to our Patreon stream. Learn more.#11: Two Phil's
Pedigree: Hard Spun – Mia Torri (by General Quarters)
Owner: Patricia's Hope, Phillip Sagan
Trainer: Larry Rivelli
Breeder: Phillip Sagan (KY)
Kentucky Derby points: 123
When Jareth Loveberry rode for Rivelli last month, he KNEW he was live (yes, we're still referencing the greatest commercial in horse racing history). Two Phil's dominated in the G3 Jeff Ruby Steaks at Turfway Park and earned some pretty big speed figures (especially compared to the rest of his crop). If they were running the Kentucky Derby over that synthetic track, I'd have him much, much higher on this list. The question is, can he replicate that race on dirt? To run with the likes of Forte and Angel of Empire, he may have to do just that.
Two Phil's was bred in Kentucky by Phillip Sagan, out of the Grade 3-placed stakes-winning General Quarters mare Mia Torri, who Sagan acquired privately during her on-track career.
#12: Raise Cain
Pedigree: Violence – Lemon Belle (by Lemon Drop Kid)
Owner: Andrew and Rania Warren
Trainer: Ben Colebrook
Breeder: Rock Ridge Thoroughbreds, LLC (KY)
Kentucky Derby points: 54
I'd wager I have Raise Cain higher than many who author similar lists. It's true there are things to nitpick about his win in the G3 Gotham. However, I really liked that he overcame some adversity. He was stopped going around the far turn and had an excuse to spit the bit, but he resumed his rally and wound up romping by more than seven lengths. He'll get a much bigger test in Saturday's Blue Grass, where he'll have to navigate a trip from the #10 post against Tapit Trice (and many others).
Raise Cain was bred in Kentucky by Rock Ridge Thoroughbreds, out of the winning Lemon Drop Kid mare Lemon Belle. He sold for $180,000 at the 2021 Keeneland September sale. Rock Ridge Thoroughbreds acquired Lemon Belle, pregnant to Violence, for $285,000 at the 2018 Keeneland November sale.
#13: Derma Sotogake
Pedigree: Mind Your Biscuits – Amour Poesie (by Neo Universe)
Owner: Hiroyuki Asanuma
Trainer: Hidetaka Otonashi
Breeder: Shadai Farm (JPN)
Kentucky Derby points: 100
Horses from the land of the rising sun swept the top four positions in the G2 UAE Derby at Meydan. Derma Sotogake did it easily, too, leading every step of the way and having plenty left when called upon turning for home. That's all great, but the record of UAE Derby alumni in the Kentucky Derby is absolutely abysmal. At some point, a horse will buck that trend, and at some point a Japan-based horse will almost certainly win the Kentucky Derby, but is this the year?
#14: Reincarnate
Pedigree: Good Magic – Allanah (by Scat Daddy)
Owner: SF Racing, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables, Robert Masterson, et al
Trainer: Tim Yakteen
Breeder: Woods Edge Farm, LLC (KY)
Kentucky Derby points: 45
A photo for third place in the Arkansas Derby saw Reincarnate edge Rocket Can. In doing so, the gray likely earned enough Derby points to ensure a spot in this year's field (a fourth-place finish would've put him in a precarious spot). Prior to that effort, Reincarnate won the G3 Sham at Santa Anita while in the barn of Bob Baffert before running third in the Rebel for Yakteen (where he earned the rest of his points).
Reincarnate was bred in Kentucky by Woods Edge Farm, out of the stakes-winning Scat Daddy mare Allanah. He sold for $775,000 at the 2021 Keeneland September sale. Woods Edge Farm acquired Allanah, pregnant to Street Boss, for $105,000 at the 2018 Keeneland November sale.
#15: Rocket Can
Pedigree: Into Mischief – Tension (by Tapit)
Owner: Frank Fletcher Racing
Trainer: Bill Mott
Breeder: Woodford Thoroughbreds, LLC (KY)
Kentucky Derby points: 60
Rocket Can won the G3 Holy Bull before running into Forte in the G2 Fountain of Youth. Owner Frank Fletcher is an Arkansas native, which played a role in this colt shipping to Oaklawn Park for the Arkansas Derby. It's not like he ran terribly to be fourth behind Angel of Empire, but if you were expecting a significant move forward Saturday, that's not what you got. Mott has shipped Rocket Can to Churchill, and this one has more than enough points to make the Derby field, but he added a decision on his status for that race has not been made.
Rocket Can was bred in Kentucky by Woodford Thoroughbreds LLC, out of the placed Tapit mare Tension. Woodford Thoroughbreds bought Tension pregnant to Curlin for $750,000 at the 2017 Keeneland November sale, and sold her at this year's Keeneland January sale.
#16: Cyclone Mischief
Pedigree: Into Mischief – Areyoucominghere (by Bernardini)
Owner: Albaugh Family Stables and Castleton Lyons
Trainer: Dale Romans
Breeder: Castleton Lyons & Kilboy Estate (KY)
Kentucky Derby points: 45
Romans was very high on Cyclone Mischief after an impressive score in January. The colt ran a clunker in the G3 Holy Bull, but has since run third to Forte twice. Most recently, he ran head-to-head with Mage turning for home in the Florida Derby before settling for a minor award. He didn't get to save much ground on Saturday, and perhaps he's rounding into form ahead of the first Saturday in May.
Cyclone Mischief was bred in Kentucky by Castleton Lyons & Kilboy Estate, out of the unplaced Bernardini mare Areyoucominghere. He sold to Albaugh Family Stables for $450,000 at the 2021 Keeneland September sale. Areyoucominghere was purchased by Castleton Lyons, pregnant to Into Mischief, for $350,000 at the 2018 Keeneland November sale.
#17: King Russell
Pedigree: Creative Cause – Believe You Will (by Proud Citizen)
Owner: Brereton Jones and Naber Racing
Trainer: Ron Moquett
Breeder: Brereton C. Jones (KY)
Kentucky Derby points: 40
King Russell was the longest shot on the board in the Arkansas Derby, and in the early stages of that race, he ran like it. However, he came flying late and finished second behind Angel of Empire, beating the likes of Reincarnate, Rocket Can, and Red Route One. He's still eligible for a first-level allowance, and Saturday's effort did come in a race where the early pace didn't hold up particularly well, but he's certainly shown an ability to be going the right way when the real running starts.
King Russell was bred in Kentucky by Brereton Jones of Airdrie Stud, out of the unraced Proud Citizen mare Believe You Will, who is herself a homebred full-sister to Jones' 2012 Kentucky Oaks winner Believe You Can. Second dam El Fasto was also a homebred for Jones.
#18: Jace's Road
Pedigree: Quality Road – Out Post (by Silver Deputy)
Owner: West Point Thoroughbreds, Albaugh Family Stables
Trainer: Brad Cox
Breeder: Colts Neck Stables LLC (KY)
Kentucky Derby points: 45
Jace's Road ran third in the Louisiana Derby, and in doing so pretty much clinched a spot in the Kentucky Derby field. He pressed the very slow pace set by Kingsbarns, and while he couldn't stick with the top two, he had enough in reserve to finish a clear third. There are speed figure questions surrounding that race, and he did have what seemed like a perfect trip, but this is a barn that simply cannot be ignored.
Jace's Road was bred in Kentucky by Richard Santulli's Colts Neck Stables, out of the stakes-placed Silver Deputy mare Out Post. The colt sold to his current ownership for $510,000 at the 2021 Keeneland September sale. After being purchased as a yearling for $250,000, Out Post raced for Jayeff B Stables, of which Santulli is a partner, then she raced for Santulli alone before entering his broodmare band.
#19: Dura Erede
Pedigree: Duramente – Marchesa (by Orfevre)
Owner: Three H Racing
Trainer: Manabu Ikezoe
Kentucky Derby points: 40
The runner-up in the UAE Derby appeared to have every chance to run down Derma Sotogake when the field turned for home. However, that one found another gear and won as much the best. Dura Erede, though, likely earned enough Derby points to make the field. He won Japan's G1 Hopeful Stakes as a 2-year-old, and the UAE Derby was his first start of 2023.
#20: Wild On Ice
Pedigree: Tapizar – Slamitagain (by Grand Slam)
Owner: Frank Sumpter
Trainer: Joel Marr
Breeder: Frank Sumpter (TX)
Kentucky Derby points: 50
We'll finish off the list with a late Triple Crown nominee. Wild On Ice pulled off a 35-1 shocker in the G3 Sunland Derby, and was supplemented to the prestigious series shortly after that effort. We're still not quite sure yet, though, if all systems are go for the Kentucky Derby. Per Mary Rampellini of the Daily Racing Form, he's expected to work Friday at Sunland and may ship to Kentucky over the weekend.
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