Tiz the Law has done nothing wrong approaching the Travers, and though this Saturday's race is certainly not a “must-win” scenario for the Belmont Stakes winner, it will be an intriguing match-up at the Kentucky Derby distance. Unless the Barclay Tagg trainee is beaten double-digit lengths, Tiz the Law should remain the favorite on most Derby lists, including the Paulick Report's first 2020 edition of The Derby 20.
Honor A. P. holds the second spot this week, despite his loss in last Saturday's Shared Belief Stakes at Del Mar. The race was a bit short and it wasn't the end goal, so it shouldn't be a setback for the John Shirreffs-trained colt on the Road to the Kentucky Derby.
Where did your favorite end up on the list? Be sure to click on the expandable boxes for each Derby candidate to get all the latest information in the first edition of The Derby 20!
Owner: Sackatoga Stable
Trainer: Barclay Tagg
Jockey: Manny Franco
Breeder: Twin Creeks Farm
Sire: Constitution
Dam: Tizfiz, by Tiznow
Sales Record: $110,000 yearling at the 2018 Fasig-Tipton Saratoga New York-Bred Sale
Race Record: 5-0-1 from six starts, $1,480,300
Major Races: G1 Belmont Stakes (1st), G1 Florida Derby (1st), G3 Holy Bull (1st), G3 Kentucky Jockey Club (3rd), G1 Champagne (1st)
G1 Travers Stakes at Saratoga on Aug. 8
1st
Paulick Report Ranking
He's the Belmont Stakes winner, he's undefeated in 2020, and he looks like a model of consistency for trainer Barclay Tagg. It's hard to bet against Tiz the Law, a colt whose running style makes him the horse to beat both in the Travers and on the first Saturday in September. Until he proves he doesn't deserve it, he'll be on top most Kentucky Derby lists.
Owner: C R K Stable
Trainer: John Shirreffs
Jockey: Mike Smith
Breeder: George Krikorian
Sire: Honor Code
Dam: Hollywood Story, by Wild Rush
Sales Record: $850,000 yearling at the 2018 Fasig-Tipton Saratoga Select sale
Race Record: 2-3-0 from five starts, $382,200
Major Races: Shared Belief Stakes (2nd), G1 Santa Anita Derby (1st), G2 San Felipe (2nd)
Kentucky Derby on Sept. 5
2nd
Paulick Report Ranking
This big, beautiful colt has all the talent to get the job done on the first Saturday in September, but he's a little bit lighter on experience than some of his rivals. The loss in the Shared Belief shouldn't affect him long-term; it was an oddly-run race and the distance was a bit short for Honor A. P. to show his best. That said, Shirreffs can be sure to have Honor A. P. ready to give his best effort next out, and with Mike Smith in the saddle his chances to visit that hallowed winner's circle at Churchill Downs are that much better.
Owner/Breeder: Bruce Lunsford
Trainer: Tommy Drury
Jockey: Brian Hernandez, Jr.
Sire: Bernardini
Dam: Distorted Legacy, by Distorted Humor
Sales Record: (homebred)
Race Record: 4-1-0 from eight starts, $548,475
Major Races: G2 Blue Grass Stakes
Ellis Park Derby on Aug. 9
3rd
Paulick Report Ranking
After an impressive win in the Blue Grass, this colt has continued to train well at Churchill Downs and heads into the Ellis Park Derby as his final prep. It's not a “must-win” situation, though the nine furlongs should suit him. So long as Art Collector finishes in the top three, he'll be ready for the Run for the Roses. On a side note, it's hard not to root for this trainer and jockey, both of whom are underrated and getting a shot at the big dance.
Owner: Victor Avila (Victoria's Ranch)
Trainer: Juan Carlos Avila
Jockey: Samy Camacho
Breeder: Carhue Investments, Grouseridge Ltd. & Marengo Investments
Sire: Uncle Mo
Dam: Slow Sand, by Dixieland Band
Sales Record: $150,000 at the OBS April sale
Race Record: 2-1-1 from five starts, $340,350
Major Races: G1 Arkansas Derby (2nd), G2 Tampa Bay Derby (1st)
Kentucky Derby on Sept. 5
4th
Paulick Report Ranking
It was unclear how talented this colt might be after his Tampa Bay Derby victory, but his second-place finish to Nadal in the Arkansas Derby was impressive. The long layoff from May to September could be a concern, but he's a lightly-made animal so there's no reason to think it wouldn't benefit him. King Guillermo is already at Churchill Downs getting used to the surface, and I'll keep a close eye on his works, but as of right now it looks like he'll be a major contender.
Owner: Karl Watson, Mike Pegram, and Paul Weitman
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Jockey: Luis Saez
Breeder: Stonestreet Thoroughbred Holdings LLC
Sire: Uncle Mo
Dam: Forest Music, by Unbridled's Song
Sales Record: $250,000 yearling at Keeneland September
Race Record: 2-0-0 from two starts, $120,000
Major Races: Los Alamitos Derby (1st)
G1 Travers at Saratoga on Aug. 8
5th
Paulick Report Ranking
Baffert has compared this colt to Arrogate, at least in terms of his stride length. It remains to be seen whether Uncle Chuck has the talent to back up that comparison, but Saturday's Travers matchup with Tiz the Law should answer a lot of questions.
Owner: John Fanelli, Cash is King LLC, LC Racing and Paul Braverman
Trainer: Saffie Joseph, Jr.
Jockey: Paco Lopez
Breeder: Brian Culnan
Sire: Cross Traffic
Dam: Maime Reilly, by Graeme Hall
Sales Record: $27,000 RNA at Fasig-Tipton Midlantic 2-year-old in training sale
Race Record: 2-3-2 from nine starts, $565,470
Major Races: G1 Haskell Stakes (2nd), G3 Matt Winn (2nd), G2 Louisiana Derby (2nd), G2 Risen Star (3rd)
Kentucky Derby on Sept. 5
6th
Paulick Report Ranking
Progressive colt showed up in a big way in the Haskell, and looked like he'd handle the extra distance of the Kentucky Derby with ease. Ny Traffic has had a good deal of racing experience, and is taking a step forward with each race. He's tactical and gritty, so he should be able to make some noise on the first Saturday in September.
Owner: Albaugh Family Stables and Spendthrift Farm
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Jockey: Abel Cedillo
Breeder: Hardacre Farm
Sire: Pioneerof the Nile
Dam: Pomeroy's Pistol, by Pomeroy
Sales Record: $1,000,000 yearling at Keeneland September sale
Race Record: 4-1-0 from seven starts, $327,000
Major Races: Shared Belief Stakes (1st), G3 Los Alamitos Derby (2nd), G3 Bob Lewis Stakes (1st), G2 Los Alamitos Futurity (1st)
Kentucky Derby on Sept. 5
7th
Paulick Report Ranking
Most analysts had understandably written off this colt after a couple of sub-par performances, but after watching his workout in company with Cezanne, it was easy to see that he'd found a new groove. After the Shared Belief win, Baffert explained that Thousand Words had gotten a bit sour, but the Hall of Fame trainer seems to have gotten a better idea of what makes this colt tick. Another one to keep a close eye on in the mornings leading up to the Run for the Roses.
Owner: Spendthrift Farm, MyRacehorse Stable, Madaket Stables LLC, and Starlight Racing
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Jockey: Mike Smith
Breeder: Peter E. Blum Thoroughbreds, LLC
Sire: Into Mischief
Dam: Flawless, by Mr. Greeley
Sales Record: $350,000 yearling at Keeneland September sale
Race Record: 4-1-0 from five starts, $1,011,200
Major Races: G1 Haskell Stakes (1st), G1 Santa Anita Derby (2nd), G2 San Felipe (1st), G3 Sham Stakes (1st)
Kentucky Derby on Sept. 5
8th
Paulick Report Ranking
I sincerely doubt this colt wants a mile and a quarter, but I doubted him in the Haskell over nine furlongs too. He's got heart, and he's got the tactical speed to be dangerous, but I can't seem him winning the Kentucky Derby. Mike Smith, his regular rider, seems likely to pick Honor A. P. over Authentic for the first Saturday in September.
Owner: Reeves Thoroughbred Racing and Andie Biancone
Trainer: Patrick Biancone
Jockey: Luca Panici
Breeder: Flaxman Holdings Limited
Sire: Karakontie
Dam: Light Blow, by Kingmambo
Sales Record: $20,000 2-year-old at OBS April sale
Race Record: 4-1-1 from seven starts, $323,310
Major Races: G2 Tampa Bay Derby (2nd), G3 Sam Davis (1st)
Kentucky Derby on Sept. 5
9th
Paulick Report Ranking
He'll need the right trip to win the Derby, but his late-closing style could be especially dangerous when there appears to be plenty of speed signing on for the first Saturday in September. Biancone admitted that he rushed Sole Volante to the Belmont 10 days after winning an allowance race, and that he runs better fresh, so I won't hold the Belmont sixth against him.
Owner: Paul Pompa, Jr.
Trainer: Chad Brown
Jockey: Irad Ortiz, Jr.
Breeder: Scott Pierce and Debbie Pierce
Sire: Tonalist
Dam: Arabian Song, by Forestry
Sales Record: $450,000 2-year-old at OBS April sale
Race Record: 2-0-1 from five starts, $117,320
Major Races: G3 Peter Pan Stakes (1st)
G1 Travers at Saratoga on Aug. 8
10th
Paulick Report Ranking
A high spot on the list for a colt who ran 5th in the Fountain of Youth, but the distance of the Travers should be advantageous for this Chad Brown trainee. I'll be watching him in the mornings, hoping to see a bit more from him, but he didn't look overly taxed winning the Peter Pan.
Owner: George Hall and SportBLX Thoroughbreds Corp.
Trainer: Linda Rice
Jockey: Joel Rosario
Breeder: K & G Stables
Sire: Honor Code
Dam: Fools in Love, by Not For Love
Sales Record: $150,000 RNA at Keeneland September yearling sale
Race Record: 2-1-1 from four starts, $273,500
Major Races: G1 Belmont Stakes (3rd), G3 Withers (1st)
G1 Travers at Saratoga on Aug. 8
11th
Paulick Report Ranking
He ran willingly enough in the Belmont, and all reports from the colt's camp have been positive leading up to the Travers. Still, he's more playable underneath the heavier favorites.
Owner.Breeder: Godolphin
Trainer: Brad Cox
Jockey: Florent Geroux
Sire: Street Sense
Dam: Collective, by Bernardini
Race Record: 3-2-0 from eight starts, $322,112
Major Races: G3 Indiana Derby (1st)
Ellis Park Derby on Aug. 9
12th
Paulick Report Ranking
Big run at Indiana Grand, and his pedigree says he should love every inch of a mile and a quarter. The Godolphin team likely won't enter him in the Kentucky Derby unless he proves he's deserving of it at Ellis Park, but it should make for a good rematch with Art Collector.
Owner: Raise the BAR Racing, LLC
Trainer: Tom Amoss
Jockey: Ricardo Mejias
Breeder: Brereton C. Jones & Bret Jones
Sire: Cairo Prince
Dam: Soundwave, by Friends Lake
Sales Record: $220,000 yearling at Keeneland September sale
Race Record: 2-4-3 from ten starts, $391,380
Major Races: G3 Ohio Derby (1st)
Ellis Park Derby on Aug. 9
13th
Paulick Report Ranking
It may have taken him a while to break his maiden, but Dean Martini has been consistently putting the pieces together ever since. He was solid in the Ohio Derby, and a good performance at Ellis could move him up if continues to show improvement.
Owner: St. Elias Stable
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Jockey: Joe Bravo
Breeder: Cloyce Clark
Sire: Quality Road
Dam: Mary Delaney, by Hennessy
Sales Record: $400,000 yearling at Keeneland September
Race Record: 2-0-1 from three starts, $188,850
Major Races: G1 Haskell (3rd), G1 Belmont (2nd)
Kentucky Derby on Sept. 5
14th
Paulick Report Ranking
Unimpressive performance in the Haskell, and Dr Post appears to be more of a one-paced grinder than the kind of horse who can win the Kentucky Derby. Down the road, he ought to try some marathon distances, because he looks like the type to run all day long.
However, should the colt's racing tactics change, he might be worth a second look.
Owner: John Oxley
Trainer: Mark Casse
Jockey: Joel Rosario
Breeder: Clearsky Farms
Sire: Tapit
Dam: Justwhistledixie, by Dixie Union
Sales Record: $775,000 RNA at Keeneland September sale
Race Record: 2-2-2 from ten starts, $397,150
Major Races: G2 Blue Grass Stakes (4th), G2 Risen Star (2nd), G3 Lecomte (1st), G1 Breeders' Futurity (3rd)
Kentucky Derby on Sept. 5
15th
Paulick Report Ranking
Distance should help this well-bred colt, and Casse seems happy with his recent workouts. Enforceable's late-running style might be a detriment, but with the right draw and the right trip, anything is possible.
Owner/Breeder: Pam and Martin Wygod
Trainer: Bill Mott
Jockey: Junior Alvarado
Sire: Uncle Mo
Dam: Symbolic Gesture, by Bernardini
Race Record: 2-0-2 from seven starts, $417,800
Major Races: G2 Louisiana Derby (3rd), G2 Risen Star (1st)
Kentucky Derby on Sept. 5
16th
Paulick Report Ranking
Another grind-it-out type, but he was unimpressive in the Peter Pan in his most recent start. Modernist is well bred and ran well earlier in the year, but his last two starts Mott hasn't had him in the right place.
Owner/Breeder: Lloyd Madison
Trainer: Greg Foley
Jockey: James Graham
Sire: Ghostzapper
Dam: Bobby's Babe, by Smart Strike
Race Record: 1-2-1 from six starts, $215,600
Major Races: G3 Indiana Derby (2nd), G2 Risen Star (2nd)
Kentucky Derby on Sept. 5
17th
Paulick Report Ranking
He hasn't gotten that top-level win yet, but Major Fed has a dedicated team behind him dedicated to his success. He will skip the Ellis Park Derby and point straight to the Kentucky Derby, and while he won't be lower than 20-1 on Derby day, the power of the home team may propel Major Fed beyond his race record.
Owner: Global Thoroughbred and Top Racing, LLC
Trainer: Gustavo Delgado
Jockey: Javier Castellano
Breeder: SF Bloodstock
Sire: Uncle Mo
Dam: Peace Time, by War Front
Sales Record: $95,000 weanling at Keeneland November
Race Record: 1-2-0 from three starts, $53,800
Major Races: G3 Peter Pan Stakes (2nd)
18th
Paulick Report Ranking
This lightly-raced colt ran a big race in the Peter Pan, especially first time against winners, and could take another step forward in the Travers. One to use underneath there, and his performance will determine where I put him on the leaderboard moving forward.
Owner: Linda Shanahan, Sanford Bacon, Dream With Me Stable, Inc., Horse France America, D P Racing LLC and Patrick L. Biancone Racing LLC
Trainer: Patrick Biancone
Jockey: Luca Panici
Breeder: Robert B. Tillyer & Eric Buckley
Sire: Summer Front
Dam: East India, by Mizzen Mast
Race Record: 3-1-1 from seven starts, $407,406
Major Races: G1 Florida Derby (3rd), G2 Fountain of Youth (1st), G3 Holy Bull (2nd)
possible for Kentucky Derby
19th
Paulick Report Ranking
He makes this list because he's got so many Derby points, but Ete Indien suffered a setback a couple weeks ago and Biancone said he might not make it to the September race. If he does, his speed and size could make him a threat, so he has potential to move up this list with positive reports and workouts.
Owner: Peter Redekop
Trainer: Blaine Wright
Jockey: Victor Espinoza
Breeder: Highland Yard LLC
Sire: Medaglia d'Oro
Dam: Walk Close, by Tapit
Sales Record: $480,000 2-year-old at OBS April sale
Race Record: 1-2-0 from six starts, $452,000
Major Races: G1 Santa Anita Derby (4th), G1 Arkansas Derby (4th), G2 Los Alamitos Futurity (2nd), G1 Breeders' Cup Juvenile (2nd)
Ellis Park Derby on Aug. 9
20th
Paulick Report Ranking
I really, really want to like this colt, but he keeps disappointing in the afternoons. I'm giving him one more shot at Ellis this Sunday, but he'll have to show up like he did at Los Alamitos for me to keep supporting him toward the Kentucky Derby.
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