The future is now, even if the future is several years away.
So much of Thoroughbred breeding is based on factors that can only be left up to speculation when a mating decision is made. We can't know if a rookie sire is going to be a star or a dud when they enter the breeding shed for the first time. We can't know what the industry will look like three to four years down the road; which tracks and circuits might rise and fall, and which ones might make drastic changes to their footprint that could change what kind of pedigrees work best on them.
For the rookie sires at least, that leap of faith also brings with it the biggest spoils. If a breeder can't afford to go to a pantheon-level commercial sire – the Into Mischiefs of the world – the next best way to ensure that potential buyers call your horse's number is to breed to a first-year stallion. Blue sky can't be disproven, and the only thing the market loves as much as a sure thing is a mystery box.
This week, let's take a look at two divisions that are perhaps the most fluid on this list. The potential fluctuation of a rookie sire is obvious, but standing out as a good sire of all-weather surface runners is the kind of skill where the payoff is to some degree at the mercy of the direction of the industry.
The drumbeat for synthetic tracks has gotten louder in recent years as a way to address safety concerns, and horses are running for great money over the Tapeta at Woodbine, Turfway Park, and Gulfstream Park, among other spots. Plans call for Belmont Park to add a Tapeta surface as part of its big remodel, which will open up even greater opportunities for a horse that can get a synthetic runner. If a few other significant tracks either flip to a synthetic main track or add it as an alternative surface, it'll be impossible to ignore breeding for intent.
Conventional wisdom suggests a horse bred for turf will be the most likely to carry their skill set over to a synthetic surface. When Keeneland and the California circuits were at the peak of their all-weather periods, turf stalwart Kitten's Joy earned his first leading general sire title. We'll see if that holds true in 2023 and beyond once I crunch the numbers.
To get a look back at the first installment of this season's All-Value Sire Team, and to see the ground rules for how selections are made, click here.
The Rookie: A stallion standing his first season in 2024.
First Team: Two Phil's
Ch. c., 2020, Hard Spun x Mia Torri, by General Quarters
Standing at WinStar Farm, KY, $12,500
We only got a glimpse of where the ceiling could have been for Two Phil's before an injury ended his career, but if you believed he had more ladder to climb (like I obviously did, given his placement here), then betting on his talent at a $12,500 stud fee could end up being something of a gift.
Leaving his race record out of it for a moment, I was so impressed by Two Phil's coming out of his stall. When I look at him, I see Hard Spun, but I also see his paternal grandsire Danzig. All three (and the great Danzig son War Front) have a way of tying in from their long necks to their shoulders that seems to be unique to their particular sire line – long neck, lower tie-in that gives them the appearance of stretching forward – and Two Phil's is one of the clearest examples I've seen of that particular stamp.
Furthermore, Danzig maintained a lot of muscle into his later years, and Two Phil's is on to a great start of following in his footsteps. He'd had some time to let down between retiring in June and my visit with him in November, but he didn't look like a horse going through an awkward stage between racetrack life and stallion life. Two Phil's still looked like the guy you want stepping off the team bus first. We know Two Phil's had two-turn chops, but it wouldn't surprise me if he can get a sprinter, given the amount of strength he has in his shoulder and bringing up the rear.
Then, of course, there is what he did on the track.
Two Phil's was a three-time Grade 3 winner at 1 1/16 miles or longer, taking the Grade 3 Street Sense Stakes as a juvenile, and the G3 Jeff Ruby Steaks and G3 Ohio Derby the following season. He also looked clear in the stretch of the Kentucky Derby, and was bested by just a length. I, like many others, went into the Derby thinking Two Phil's was going to be best suited scaling back to a mile in the second half of his sophomore campaign and beyond, but he suddenly became a serious threat for the major 3-year-old route races after the Churchill Downs tilt.
I still hold onto that notion that Two Phil's could have been a heck of a miler if routing didn't work out for him, and we could see that play out with his foals, who will surely be bred for a variety of purposes. Given he was a graded winner at two with a ferocious turn of foot, paired with a very reasonable stud fee, I could see him being a popular target for 2-year-old pinhookers during the yearling sales of 2025.
Two Phil's showed a fair bit of versatility during his on-track career, winning impressively at multiple distances, and over both dirt and synthetic. His dam, the General Quarters mare Mia Torri, also won over both dirt and synthetic, and she was a multiple Grade 3-placed stakes winner over the main track. Both sire Hard Spun and broodmare sire General Quarters were versatile with how they could succeed on the racetrack, and their ensuing foals have largely done the same.
We don't know much what will work best with Two Phil's beyond what we can speculate from what's in front of us, but it sure seems like he's not limited by much in terms of what kind mares would pair well with him. At that price point, he stands to attract a diverse first book of mares.
Second Team: Pappacap
B. h., 2019, Gun Runner x Pappascat, by Scat Daddy
Standing at Walmac Farm, KY, $12,500
There are few names in the stud book that are hotter right now than Gun Runner, but not everyone can afford that heat bill.
Gun Runner's highly-coveted first sons have begun populating farms around Kentucky, among them Cyberknife, Gunite, Taiba, and Early Voting (for part of his first book, at least), and though they're all standing for less than papa, only one son is standing for $20,000 or less. This is, in fact, your most affordable ticket to the Gun show.
However, “affordable” is not the same as “low quality.” Pappacap was a Grade 2 winner around one turn as a 2-year-old, and he finished second in that season's Breeders' Cup Juvenile. He also earned graded placings as a sprinter, a miler, and a router at three.
The female family has a bit of heft to it, as well, with the Scat Daddy mare Pappascat also producing Grade 3 winner Bobby O. Al Qasr, a Peruvian Horse of the Year and U.S. stakes winner, can also be found on his page.
Walmac Farm staff told me in September that Pappacap's book was already filling up nicely, so I expect he will have a solid pipeline of foals to get him off the mark in his first crop.
Pappacap is a well-balanced individual who I expect will develop quite a bit after his first year at stud. He cuts an athletic frame, much like his sire Gun Runner, and both measure at 16.1 hands, though I wouldn't classify either as particularly leggy. Pappacap's silhouette is remarkably faithful to his sire's, and with a decent sample size of what works with Gun Runner, that could inform shrewd breeders on what kind of mares might best populate the rookie's book.
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If you appreciate our work, you can support us by subscribing to our Patreon stream. Learn more.The All-Weather Sire: A stallion with proven success getting runners over all-weather surfaces, or a young stallion whose pedigree and on-track performance suggests he could succeed as a sire of synthetic runners.
First Team: Bucchero
Ch. h., 2012, Kantharos x Meetmeontime, by General Meeting
Standing at McMahon of Saratoga Thoroughbreds, NY, $7,500
Talk about a stat boost: Bucchero's runners have hit the board in 52.9 percent of their races over all-weather surfaces, which is an improvement of 5.9 percentages over their 47 percent in the money rate over all surfaces.
Bucchero's percentage of wins from total starts over synthetic of 19.9 percent is better than all significant active Kentucky stallions besides Bolt d'Oro (22.7 percent), Ghostzapper (20.4 percent), and Twirling Candy (20.3 percent).
His in-the-money percentage improvement on synthetic versus his total in-the-money percentage trails only Oscar Performance (whose ITM percentage goes up a whopping 23.3 percent on all-weather surfaces), Flameaway (19.3 percent from a small sample size), West Coast (7.7 percent), and Bucchero's own sire Kantharos (6.2 percent).
One might easily point out that as a former Florida sire, Bucchero has had the benefit of racing state-breds on Gulfstream's Tapeta surface year-round, but the cumulative opportunities over tracks where Tapeta is the primary surface – Turfway, Woodbine, and the not-long-for-this-world Golden Gate Fields – are comparable, if not greater. Other sires have had opportunities to put up similar numbers and the vast majority haven't.
Bucchero moves to New York at an opportune time to continue this run of synthetic success. By the time his first New York-sired foals hit the track in 2027, Belmont Park should have its one-mile Tapeta surface in operation, meaning the opportunities for his state-breds to make a difference on the surface should carry through from his final Florida crops to the Empire State.
As a Florida sire, the goal for many of Bucchero's breeders has been the 2-year-olds in training sales, and his status as the highest-positioned sire in the 2023 2-Year-Old Sale Sire Power Rankings standing outside of Kentucky has proven he can get them out fast. Bucchero sired one of just seven juveniles to breeze an eighth of a mile in :9 3/5 seconds this year, and he finished 14th among qualifying sires by average breeze time.
However, Bucchero's median yearling price has managed to remain steady as his lull-year crops begin to hit the auction scene, remaining at $16,000 from 2022 to 2023. If his New York-sired yearlings can maintain that median, it would make him competitive with his new contemporaries in that state.
Bucchero sports a masculine build, fitting of both his on-track career as a graded stakes-winning turf sprinter, and the Storm Cat/Tale of the Cat/Lion Heart/Kantharos family tree. He's solid throughout with plenty of bone, but he's not just a cannonball. There's a raciness to him that the right mare could capitalize on to create a potential two-turn athlete.
I keep coming up with different ways to slice and dice the stallion ranks, and Bucchero keeps outkicking his status as a regional sire. I think he'll be just fine in New York, especially as it transitions to a state where Tapeta will soon be a significant part of the picture.
Second Team: Flameaway
Ch. h., 2015, Scat Daddy x Vulcan Rose, by Fusaichi Pegasus
Standing at Darby Dan Farm, KY, $20,000
Once again, we look toward the future. We only have 29 all-weather starts for Flameaway's progeny from his debut class of 2-year-olds, but those youngsters are making it count.
Flameaway is hitting at 55.2 percent in the money on the synthetic from his freshman crop, and he's already getting stars. Freedom Principle broke his maiden over Gulfstream Park's all-weather track, then followed up with a win in the Armed Forces Stakes. Further north, She's Fire finished second on debut on the Tapeta track at Presque Isle Downs, then she came back later this year to win the Fitz Dixon Jr. Memorial Juvenile Stakes by 3 1/4 lengths.
Flameaway himself only had one go on an all-weather track, winning his debut at Woodbine as a juvenile. From there, he proved himself to be a versatile runner, winning stakes races over both dirt and turf. His own sire, Scat Daddy, proved himself able to get an elite horse over any surface during his truncated career.
Flameaway is another stallion whose median sale price has remained consistent between his first and second crops at $25,000, which suggests both buyers and breeders are keeping the faith with him as his first runners play out. We'll need a lot more evidence before Flameaway can be labeled as “proven” for anything, even as a sire of synthetic runners, but if you're going to be good at something early on, it doesn't hurt to be especially good at it.
Check in for future installments to see who made the All-Value Sire Team among stallions of various ages and specialties, including, freshman sires of 2024, sires of sprinters, regional sires, and more.
The post The 2023-24 All-Value Sire Team Presented By Pedigrees360: The Rookie And The All-Weather Sire appeared first on Horse Racing News | Paulick Report.
