The 2023-24 All-Value Sire Team Presented By Pedigrees 360: Team Captain And Turf Sire

We're back in business, and stud fees still aren't real.

As the commercial bloodstock market becomes ever-more focused on first-crop sires and the upper crust, everything else be damned, the middle class of the stallion market has become an increasingly difficult row for breeders to hoe, no matter their intent.

The entire conversation about a horse's perceived commercial value begins with the advertised stud fee to conceive them, and that's all it is – the start of a conversation.

Though an advertised fee is a good indicator of a farm's belief in a stallion's place in the industry's hierarchy, and within a farm's own roster, the number on the check a breeder ultimately writes can often be quite different after negotiations, discounts, and other incentives. Or, if demand goes up, so too could the final price.

Even with all of this information in mind, the vast majority of breeders can't afford to stake their hopes and budgets on a horse conceived on a six-figure stud fee. There are more options in the lower price brackets, and the financial stakes might be lower, but finding the best match for your mare is just as paramount. Not all sires in the “value” price tier are created equal.

In this year's All-Value Sire Team, we'll examine the best and brightest among North American stallions standing for an advertised fee of $20,000 or less in 2024, filling various age brackets and perceived skill sets. Each position will have a “first team” and “second team,” the same as you'd find for the All-Pro Team of a professional sports league.

These selections were made through a combination of in-person inspections, statistical comparisons, and a general sense of the market's direction, both in the greater scope and toward each individual.

For me, a successful stallion needs to answer in the affirmative to the following four questions. Because we're looking for value, we might have to compromise on a point or two, but a member of the All-Value Sire Team has to answer at least one of these questions with authority.

Can the stallion get you a winner?

It's important to get winners. It's more important to get stakes winners. It's most important to get graded stakes winners. I'm also interested to see if a stallion's runners are adept at getting multiple wins over the course of their careers, instead of just flaming out after notching their first victory.

Can they get you a sale horse?

How likely am I to get multiples on my stud fee in the auction ring? It might be harder to hit a home run from this price bracket, but the middle market keeps the lights on with horses bred on modest stud fees seeing solid returns on their investment. I focused on median sale prices, to keep an outlying price or two from spiking the numbers too dramatically.

Can they get you a stallion?

So much of the modern Thoroughbred industry is built toward cultivating lucrative stallion prospects, from the high-dollar colt-buying partnerships at auction to the careful mapping out of a colt's racing career in the aim of earning Grade 1 black type. If a sire has proven that he can get his sons to stud, that's going to make his ensuing sons more desirable on the commercial market.

New for this year, I've also tracked potential sons at stud, meaning active colts on the racetrack with a stallion-making body of work that will likely land them a spot on a roster upon retirement. That's as good as having a son at stud for my purposes.

For younger stallions that don't have runners of age to retire, I'll take into consideration whether they hail from a “stallion-making” pedigree. For certain sire lines, a nice allowance winner can find a home on someone's stallion roster, where one from a less fashionable line might have an uphill battle, even if their on-track resume is airtight.

Does the stallion have momentum?

If a stallion's progeny hits, will you look like a visionary for getting in during their ascent at a bargain price, or is the stallion's career trajectory settled enough at this point that a big runner won't drastically change their place on the ladder? Having a decent-sized pipeline of young horses coming up helps in my judgment here.

Reputation plays a role, too. When I think of the farm where a stallion resides, do visions of Book 6 dance in my head, or does the operation have a track record of getting mares to their studs? Does the farm work with owners that will support their stallions in the breeding shed and in the sales ring?

Furthermore, I'm more interested in a stallion that has proven himself able to get results with mares from this price bracket, as opposed to one that has recently dropped into it from a higher fee. If a stallion has proven he can get good horses from mares at the $10,000 level, that means more to me than one who couldn't at $50,000 in previous seasons, and hasn't proven that he can at any price point.

These intangibles are far from the most important factors in sorting out value sires, but in a market that holds new, shiny things above all but the most proven members of the stud book, having a bit of perceived wind at your back can help break some ties.

With all of that squared away, let's have a look at the first members of the All-Value Sire Team.

The Captain: The star player of the All-Value Sire Team, making him, in my opinion, the best value at stud in North America.

First Team: Dialed In

Dk. B. or br. h., 2008, Mineshaft x Miss Doolittle, by Storm Cat
Standing at Darby Dan Farm, KY, $15,000

Last year's Second Team captain is promoted to the starting lineup.

However, the decision wasn't as simple as moving the next guy up after it was announced that last year's First Team captain Lookin at Lucky would remain in South America. A lot can change over the course of a year, and Dialed In re-entered a deep pool of serious contenders for the top spot, each with their own strengths and weaknesses that could have put them anywhere in the order of preference.

After slicing and dicing the list of serious players from a battery of angles, I simply sat down with each name and asked myself the four questions in the above criteria, and Dialed In did the best, most consistent job of answering in the affirmative. My first instinct was the correct one.

Dialed In has 50 percent winners from horses of racing age, which was above average among the stallions under consideration, and his percentage of wins from total starts (16 percent) was tied for the second best in Kentucky among value sires.

They're not just winning rank-and-file races, either. Dialed In's eight graded stakes winners are among the most among value sires with fewer than 10 crops of racing age, and his runners have continued to perform well year after year. In 2021, he sent Grade 1 Arkansas Derby winner Super Stock to the Kentucky Derby and he had Mr. Wireless do good things on the summer state derby circuit. Last year, Grade 1 winner Get Her Number just missed another win at the highest level by a head in the G1 Cigar Mile Handicap, while Defunded picked up his first Grade 1 triumph in the Awesome Again Stakes.

Defunded was once again a star for Dialed In during the 2023 season, racking up wins in the G1 Hollywood Gold Cup Stakes and the G2 Californian Stakes on the West Coast, and finishing second in his defense of the Awesome Again. Dialed In also saw his daughter Gambling Girl finish second by a neck in the Kentucky Oaks, which was one of two Grade 1 placings by the filly in 2023.

With so many runners doing big things, Dialed In's average progeny earnings of $81,808 is also among the best in his class, which should be music to the ears of someone breeding to race.

If you're breeding to sell, Dialed In is trending in a good direction. His median yearling sale price of $35,000 might not be a giant windfall for sellers, but it's still competitive with the top veteran sires in his price bracket. More importantly, he's been outkicking his lifetime yearling median sale price in recent years, settling at $40,000 in 2022 and $38,500 in 2023.

Among Kentucky sires with eight or more crops of racing age, only Dialed In and Darley's Midshipman have performed better than their lifetime yearling median in both of the past two years. Breeders seem to be figuring out what works with Dialed In, and buyers are slowly beginning to recognize and respect it. A foal conceived in 2024 could enjoy the benefits of that upward momentum.

That momentum is further displayed with his pipeline of young horses. He has 197 combined registered weanlings, yearlings, and 2-year-olds, which puts him in the top 20 among value sires. That trend looks to continue for at least another year, with his 2023 book of mares comprising 175 members – a gain of 32 mares from the previous breeding season.

In terms of sire-making potential, he's got $5.5-million earner Gunnevera at stud in Florida, who got a yearling into the Fasig-Tipton Saratoga Sale from his first crop. I don't know what Super Stock is up to nowadays, but he's done enough on the racetrack to merit consideration for someone's stallion program when he retires, as well.

Looking at Dialed In at the end of the shank, you can see a clear influence from his broodmare sire, Storm Cat. He's got a powerful engine behind him, and he's not what I'd consider a horse with an excess of scope, but he's got enough athleticism to his frame that he can do plenty with his muscular build, and pass it along to his foals.

Few sires could get a 2-year-old out of the blocks like Storm Cat, and Dialed In has carried that on as the leading freshman sire of 2016. However, a lot of his best runners have been three or older, going two turns. Having multiple viable targets with a sire's runners is never a bad thing.

Breeders should take further comfort in the fact that Darby Dan Farm has been extremely fair with his pricing over the years. He has never stood for an advertised fee of more than $25,000, and even that was just for a couple seasons. Practically everything that Dialed In has achieved at stud was done at the”value sire” level, which means he's got great potential to move up a mare from that category into something greater than the sum of the parts.

There is no such thing as a sure thing when a breeder books a mare to a stallion, but there are safe bets, and there might be no safer bet going right now than Dialed In.

Second Team: The Factor

Gr. or ro. h., 2008, War Front x Greyciousness, by Miswaki
Standing at Lane's End, KY, $10,000

If you're looking to get some winners under your mare's produce record, there may be no better man for the job than The Factor. He's currently tracking at 62 percent winners from foals of racing age, which is several percentage points ahead of the next flight of value sires.

It's also higher than penthouse-level sires Into Mischief (56 percent), Curlin (54 percent), and Medaglia d'Oro (45 percent) and his 62 percent winners-from-racing age horses mark ties him with Tapit.

With that many winners, The Factor's average progeny earnings of $82,794 is also upper-echelon among value sires. They're not just winning rank-and-file races, either. He's getting five percent stakes winners from foals of racing age, which is just a percentage point behind the best in his class.

The name of the game here is “versatility,” and that also comes through in The Factor's own physical. He doesn't lean too far in any particular direction – not too tall or short, not too scopey or bulky, and he was a high level runner at the route and sprint distances – which means a wide sample of mares figure to match well with him. That's about as safe as a bet can get.

The Turf Sire: A veteran sire who either has a proven track record of throwing successful runners on the grass, or a young stallion who has the racetrack performance or pedigree to suggest his foals will excel on the surface.

First Team: Karakontie

B. h., 2011, Bernstein x Sun is Up, by Sunday Silence
Standing at Gainesway, KY, $15,000

Last year's First-Teamer repeats on top in 2023, and he might have even widened the margin.

Karakontie continued his run as an ever-more proven turf sire this year, getting his second career Grade 1 winner in Natalma Stakes winner She Feels Pretty, who also finished third in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf.

Princess Grace, a five-time graded stakes winner in the U.S., had a monster season in Australia, winning the Group 3 Pioneer Services Hawkesbury Crown and placing in a pair of Group 1 events. Meanwhile, Spendarella, a Grade 1 winner with her own international star turn with a second last year at Royal Ascot, added another Grade 1 placing to her record in 2023.

Karakontie's year on the turf wasn't just about star power, though. His 20 winners from 64 turf starters through late November clocked him at 31.25 percent, ranking him third among value sires. He led all value sires by percentage of stakes winners from turf starters in that timespan, at 6.25 percent, well clear of second-place Mineshaft at 5.88 percent, and even further ahead of third-place Cairo Prince at 4.86 percent.

When it comes to the financials, Karakontie ranked second among value sires by average turf earnings in 2023, with $36,941, just missing leader Jimmy Creed with $36,972.

It should come as no surprise that a Breeders' Cup Mile winner with a veritable United Nations in his pedigree is good at getting a turf horse, but the Karakonties appear to be uniquely qualified to excel over the surface.

Karakontie's median yearling price cooled down a bit in 2023, falling from $17,000 last year to $10,500 this season, but there is adequate reason to believe those numbers will turn around. His weanlings brought in a median price of $18,000 this year, which exceeded his lifetime median of $16,500, and he tied for the 11th-highest year-over-year gain in mares bred in 2023, improving by 38 mares from 48 to 86.

Turf sires typically come with an unspoken commercial ceiling in North America. Kitten's Joy topped the general sire list twice and even his best yearlings could hardly make a dent in the auction scene. Tracks are putting more effort and purse money into their turf programs, though, and that tide appears to be turning, if more slowly than logic dictates. The auction results of Karakontie's most recent crop, and the increase of mares booked to him in 2023 suggest the stallion might be at the forefront of that shift.

Like fellow First-Teamer Dialed In, the influence of paternal grandsire Storm Cat manifests itself in Karakontie's physical, especially in the neck and shoulder. However, Karakontie gives you much more leg and scope, and less of the signature Storm Cat bulk, which he's done a good job maintaining after several years at stud.

If you've got a big mare, he looks able to give her some athleticism. If you've got a rangy mare, he can contribute power to the equation. A breeder with a clear goal of getting a turf horse has a lot of different options with Karakontie.

I see a lot of blue sky with Karakontie. He's become a proven sire of turf winners – and quality winners, at that – and turf racing's slice of the North American pie is only getting bigger. Whether you're breeding or buying, Karakontie looks like a solid way into that sphere on a budget.

Second Team: Cairo Prince

Gr. or ro. h, 2011, Pioneerof the Nile x Holy Bubbette, by Holy Bull
Standing at Airdrie Stud, KY, $15,000

No matter what, this spot was going to a resident of Airdrie Stud.

The 2023 turf numbers for Cairo Prince and Summer Front ran practically neck-and-neck in a lot of areas, including winners (34 to 32 in favor of Summer Front), percentage of stakes winners from turf starters (4.86 percent for Cairo Prince, 4.44 percent for Summer Front), percentage of turf black type earners (8.89 percent for Summer Front, 8.33 percent for Cairo Prince), and average 2023 progeny turf earnings (Cairo Prince by a nose with $22,491). Both were consistently among the best value sires in those categories.

If we consider the turf stats alone to be a wash between the two, Cairo Prince edges ahead with the other variables. His median yearling sale price saw a nice bump from $35,000 to $38,500, and his weanlings saw a similar rise this fall. He's also got a solid pipeline of runners backing him up, with 184 combined registered juveniles, yearlings, and weanlings.

Cairo Prince's all-time leading earner is Buy Land and See, who has been a star on dirt and turf in the Mid-Atlantic, while other $500,000-plus earners Tony Ann, Dean Martini and Cairo Consort reached those numbers in whole or in large part because of their exploits on the turf. His top earner of 2023, the 2-year-old My Boy Prince, won the Cup and Saucer Stakes on the Woodbine grass, and he earned Grade 1 placings in the Natalma Stakes and the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf.

It was a bit surprising to think of Cairo Prince as being this successful on the turf, considering he never set foot on the stuff during his racing career, and neither did either of his parents. However, a look at Pioneerof the Nile's record as a sire of sires paints a clearer picture. American Pharoah's best runners have tended to skew toward the grass, including his lone Breeders' Cup winner in Juvenile Turf Sprint winner Four Wheel Drive. Runaway Storm, arguably the best runner by Midnight Storm, is a turf horse, and Classic Empire has been known to get a nice turf runner.

Cairo Prince has shown himself to be an incredibly versatile sire of runners, and he is far from “just” a turf sire. With that being said, being especially good at something is rarely a bad thing.

Check in for future installments to see who made the All-Value Sire Team among stallions of various ages and specialties, including first-year stallions, freshman sires of 2024, sires of sprinters, regional sires, and more.

The post The 2023-24 All-Value Sire Team Presented By Pedigrees 360: Team Captain And Turf Sire appeared first on Horse Racing News | Paulick Report.

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