Zoe Cadman | Horse Racing Free Tips

Andy Beyer Joins TDN Writers’ Room to Handicap the Kentucky Derby

Andy Beyer, the longtime racing columnist for the Washington Post and the creator of the Beyer Speed Figures that appear in the Daily Racing Form, is never short of opinions, especially when it comes to who will win the GI Kentucky Derby. With the race right around the corner, we asked Beyer to give us his thoughts on the race and share his handicapping acumen on the TDN Writers' Room podcast, which is presented by Keeneland. Beyer was this week's Green Group Guest of the Week.

After some spirited and amusing debate about how to pronounce Forte's name, Beyer said he's no fan of that horse, saying that Forte (Violence) “won't hit the board.”

“I don't like him,” he said. “I don't like him because the name issue grates on me every time I hear it. He is not historically what we look for in the Kentucky Derby, which is a horse on the upgrade coming into the Derby. He clearly doesn't fit that profile. Yes, he is trained by Todd Pletcher. But as we know, Todd's forte is not training horses to win the Derby. His record in this race is two for 62. So I don't think you get any extra credit for being in the Pletcher barn in this race. I want no part of Forte. I don't think he'll hit the board.”

Then who does he like? It's Derma Sotogake (Jpn) (Mind Your Biscuits).

“I am looking for a history making Japanese victory on Saturday night with Derma Sotogake,” Beyer said. “It's not a great Derby. But what makes it really interesting to me is the Japanese presence. And I've been looking a lot at this and I think that Japan is really on the brink of becoming the number one power in world horse racing, eclipsing even Great Britain and the United States. It's going to happen at the present rate eventually. And the coming out party just might be Saturday.”

Beyer said he is so bullish on the Japanese horses that he even gave a long look to longshot Continuar (Jpn) (Drefong).

“I was going to pick Continuar as my 50 to 1 bomber just because he is trained by the top Japanese trainer and was really going to be under the radar,” Beyer said. “But he evidently has not trained that well since he's been at Churchill.”

Based on the Beyer figures, the field for the GI Kentucky Oaks is among the slowest ever. Predictably, Beyer didn't have anything good to say about that race.

“I was so depressed looking at the figures in the Oaks that I just haven't even focused on it yet,” he said. “The idea that nobody in that field has run a figure over 91 is just embarrassing. I've never seen a race this famous look so bad from the speed figure standpoint.”

Elsewhere on the podcast, which is also sponsored by Coolmore,https://lanesend.com/ the Pennsylvania Horse Breeders Association, Kentucky Thoroughbred Owners and Breeders, 1/st Racing, WinStar Farm, XBTV and https://www.threechimneys.com/ West Point Thoroughbreds, podcast regulars Zoe Cadman, Randy Moss and Bill Finley ran through the entire 20-horse field, giving their opinions on each starter. Finley picked Tapit Trice (Tapit) to win, Moss selected Derma Sotogoake and Cadman gave the nod to Practical Move (Practical Joke). As was the case with Beyer, none were particularly high on Forte.

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Leslie And Pierre Amestoy Join The TDN Writers’ Room Podcast

Owners Leslie and Pierre Amestoy have been involved with a bunch of good horses, some of them stakes-winning Quarter Horses, but never anything like Practical Move (Practical Joke). The winner of the GII San Felipe S. and the GI Santa Anita Derby so far this year, he will be among the favorites in the upcoming GI Kentucky Derby.

The TDN Writers' Room podcast, presented by Keeneland caught up with the Amestoys this week to find out more about their operation, their background and their thoughts on Practical Move. They were the Green Group Guests of the Week.

Their trainer Tim Yakteen, has been a big part of the story. While he has deputized for Bob Baffert the last two years with his potential Derby starters, he's not normally someone who you think of when it comes to having Derby starters. But the Amestoys believe he has been a perfect fit when it comes to Practical Move.

“One of my old racing partners, Mike Abraham, knew Tim,” Pierre said. “And then another friend of mine, Jaime Gomez from Los Alamitos, knew Tim. I told them that I wanted to go to a nice barn, but I don't want to be with one of those barns that has 300, 400 horses. I want a more on-hands trainer. They both recommended Tim.

“We didn't meet him Tim till last year's Del Mar meet, when Practical Move was running his first race was. He was just as nice as could be. And we could see the operation in the barn. Leslie trained for ten or 15 years. So we knew what we wanted and Tim was what we wanted. He had a great set up and a good operation.”

The Amestoys, who own Practical Move in partnership with Roger Beasley, bought the horse at last year's OBS April sale. They said he was their number one pick among all the horses in the sale, but almost didn't get him. They budgeted $175,000 for the purchase and wound up paying $230,000. They liked the horse enough that they kept bidding until they got him.

“He was our number one pick, which we never get when we got to sales,” Leslie said. “We always pick the number one and can't buy him. We got him and we had no buyer's remorse ever. Oh, we loved him from the start.”

And that's why they named him Practical Move, because, in the end they thought it was a practical move to buy the colt.

As far as the Derby goes, the Amestoys are already thinking strategy.

“I think he's tactical enough,” Pierre said. “Ramon (Vasquez) can put him where he wants him. I would hope we can get a good enough break that we hit the first turn and we have two thirds of them behind us. We want to be up in the first tier or right behind the first tier of horses. This horse has a really good, really strong, high cruising speed so we can get a good spot and then cruise on the backside and set ourselves up. So if we get our trip, I think coming out of the turn, we're going to be close to the leader and then they're going to have to come get us. If his horse switches leads like he's supposed to I think he'll finish strong.”

Elsewhere on the podcast, which is also sponsored by Coolmore, the Pennsylvania Horse Breeders Association, Kentucky Thoroughbred Owners and Breeders, 1/ST Racing, WinStar Farm, and West Point Thoroughbreds, the team of Randy Moss, Zoe Cadman and Bill Finley took a look back at the problems with the track surface at Laurel, the positive results coming out of Hawthorne since that track cut the takeout on win, place and show bets to 12% and the newest additions to the Hall of Fame. Not to be missed, the trio also discussed Proxy (Tapit)'s win in the GII Oaklawn H., and the decision by Jimmy Jerkens, who has been struggling to find the winner's circle the last few years, to start training in Saudi Arabia.

Click here to listen to the audio version of this podcast or click here to watch the video version.

The post Leslie And Pierre Amestoy Join The TDN Writers’ Room Podcast appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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Who Will Be the Leading First-Crop Sire?

In Thursday's TDN, we talked to four top judges of equine talent who had a divergence of opinion on who this year's leading first-crop sire would be. Who comes out on top in this edition?

EDDIE ROSEN

Top Pick: Vino Rosso (Curlin–Mythical Bride, by Street Cry {Ire}). Spendthrift Farm, 2023 fee: $15,000.

Full disclosure, as a member of Team Repole that selected and raced Vino Rosso, I am obviously biased. However, I sincerely believe he will be the leading freshman sire. While he, as a Curlin, was slow-maturing and peaked as a 4-year-old, the 2-year-olds we saw this spring appear to be surprisingly precocious. If forced to recuse myself, my second choice would be Mitole. He was exceptionally fast and he should pass that speed on to his offspring.

Under-the-radar pick: Maximus Mischief (Into Mischief–Reina Maria, by Songandaprayer). Spendthrift Farm: 2023 fee: $7,500.

My slightly under-the-radar pick would be Maximus Mischief, a son of Into Mischief out of a Songandaprayer mare whose yearlings were well received.

DAVID INGORDO

Top pick: Vino Rosso

I'll go with Vino Rosso. We broke a bunch of them at Mayberry's. They were really smart, good-moving horses. They were kind of plainish, which you'd expect from the pedigree. But once you got them under tack and got them moving they were pretty impressive. I don't expect them to win 4 1/2-furlong races at Keeneland or early in the Churchill meet, but by the time we get to Del Mar and Saratoga when the really heavy 2-year-old races start, he should get some winners. I can see him having a Breeders' Cup winner. I know he developed a little slower, but they don't look like horses that are going to take forever to mature.

Under-the-radar pick: Catalina Cruiser (Union Rags–Sea Gull, by Mineshaft). Lane's End, 2023 fee: $15,000.

I really like Catalina Cruiser. He had brilliant speed and is a physically imposing horse who comes from a good family. We raised the horse at Lane's End and we broke him at the Mayberry's. We bought him for Mr. Hronis and John Sadler trained him. He was kind of an unlucky horse to not win a Grade I. He set a stakes record in the True North on Belmont weekend. That's a race that has been around a long time. His offspring look the part; they look like their sire. We bought two at the 2-year-old sale and we bought a yearling by him, so we are supporting him. I could see him becoming a War Front or Distorted Humor-type stallion, a sprinter who had a lot of speed, maybe didn't win at the top level but imparted their speed to their offspring. I can see him really, really making it in that mold.

ZOE CADMAN

Top pick: Mitole (Eskendereya–Indian Miss, by Indian Charlie). Spendthrift Farm, 2023 fee: $15,000.

My top pick is Mitole. I loved his babies at the recent OBS March sale. They look to be quick and early, but with quality and scope enough to go on around two turns.

Under-the-radar pick: Vino Rosso

Vino Rosso will be my sleeper. By Curlin, you would think these need all the time in the world. However, it was really surprising to see several come out flying at the OBS March sale. Obviously, they will come alive the latter part of the year. But don't be shocked to see some early ones, too.

TERRY FINLEY

Top pick: Catalina Cruiser

We purchased a really sharp colt of his in March who is going to Cherie DeVaux shortly. We liked them as yearlings. They stand up in front of you with class and poise and are good-boned and athletic. Catalina Cruiser was also a similar racehorse to freshman sire favorite Omaha Beach in that he was effective both sprinting and routing. Those types tend to make the best stallions. I think he has a chance to make a good bit of noise this year.

Under-the-radar pick: Maximus Mischief

My under-the-radar pick is Maximus Mischief, who has the number power that Catalina Cruiser lacks. He bred 196 mares in his first year at stud, so he's already emulating his high-volume sire and he has a close physical resemblance to Into Mischief as well. Several of his 2-year-olds sold well at March OBS. They are good movers and seem very sensible. Maximus Mischief was a very nice 2-year-old himself; some people forget he was one of the Kentucky Derby favorites before he got injured. Big upside.

SEAN PERL

Top pick: Mitole

My top pick for this year's first crop sire is Mitole. His offspring were supported greatly at the yearling sales and he stamped them really well, showcasing them in all shapes and sizes. I personally purchased some for my clients to both race and pinhook. For a bubble-year horse whose book is full, that says a lot in itself. Trained by Steve Asmussen, for whom I have the utmost respect as a horseman and a person who needs no introduction, and being supported by Mr. and Mrs. Heiligbrodt in the breeding shed and at sales, connections who know how to win in all facets of life, I would have to imagine they'll come out running this spring on the ultra competitive Kentucky circuit straight into the Saratoga summertime maiden races.

Under-the-radar pick: Flameaway (Scat Daddy–Vulcan Rose, by Fusaichi Pegasus), Darby Dan, 2023 fee: $7,500.

My under-the-radar sire is Flameaway, a son of Scat Daddy who is an absolutely stunning physical himself. He won races from distances of 4.5f to 1 1/16 miles and stakes on both turf and dirt. I feel as the year goes on, we will hear from Flameaway's offspring more and more.

In tomorrow's TDN: more first-crop sire picks. Want to send in your selections? Email suefinley@thetdn.com.

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Todd Pletcher Joins TDN Writers’ Room Podcast

It's that time of the year, when Todd Pletcher is in the headlines virtually every weekend. He won last Saturday's GII Louisiana Derby with Kingsbarns (Uncle Mo), has the favorite in Saturday's GI Curlin Florida Derby in Forte (Violence) and the following week will head to Keeneland for the GI Toyota Blue Grass, where Tapit Trice (Tapit) could be the horse to beat. To get Pletcher's latest thoughts on his wealth of 3-year-old talent we had him join us on this week's TDN Writers' Room podcast presented by Keeneland. Pletcher was this week's Green Group Guest of the Week.

A key topic was the draw for the Florida Derby. A small field was expected, but when the entries came out, the Florida Derby had a field of 12 and Forte drew the 11 post. That's a big disadvantage, which Pletcher was quick to acknowledge. The 11 post is just 2-for-49 at a mile-and-an-eighth on the dirt at Gulfstream.

“There's no bones about it. I don't like it,” he said. “It wouldn't have been one of my first five choices. I read the other day that since 2006, post 11 is 2-for-49 at Gulfstream going a mile-and-an-eighth. The one thing I will say, you'd have to go back and look at all 49 horses who broke from that post. But I would doubt that too many of them have the credentials that Forte does.”

He said that when the new Gulfstream was being built the Stronach team asked him his opinion as to whether or not they should build a mile-and-an-eighth main track. He told them he was against it.

“If you could go back 20 years, they actually did ask me when they were looking at the blueprints,” he said. “They asked me 'What do you think of a mile-and-an-eighth track?' I told them that I didn't care for it at all. It compromises your race and potentially could compromise anyone who draws an outside post. I've always felt it's not really a fair race for everyone. Between the Florida Derby and the Pegasus, you just hate to see the two most significant races of the meet potentially affected by post position.”

In the Louisiana Derby, Kingsbarns benefitted from a heady ride by Flavien Prat, who got his mount to the lead and slowed the pace down to a crawl. Pletcher said the plan was to be aggressive from the gate.

“Flavien and I spoke about the race,” he said. “We wanted to make sure we were kind of seeing the pace scenario the same way and that we both agreed. There didn't appear to be a lot of pace on paper. We felt like we would come out running, try to establish some position. We felt like the horse was versatile enough that if he made the lead the right way we'd be fine with that. And if someone else was ambitious and wanted to take it, then we could put ourselves in a good stalking position. At the elbow of the first turn, we were a length in front and it was pretty much all good from there.”

Scouting the competition, Pletcher admitted he was impressed with Derma Sotogake (Jpn) (Mind Your Biscuits), the winner of the G2 UAE Derby, who will now be headed to the GI Kentucky Derby.

“I thought it was a very impressive performance,” he said. “I think the track might have been a little bit speed favoring, but I didn't get to watch the whole card. The Japanese horses have just been performing phenomenally everywhere that their horses run. So, yes, I'm concerned. They're certainly improving by leaps and bounds in the way that their horses are performing globally.”

Elsewhere on the podcast, which is also sponsored by Coolmore,https://lanesend.com/ the Pennsylvania Horse Breeders Association, Woodford Thoroughbreds, Lane's End, XBTV, 1/st Racing, WinStar Farm and West Point Thoroughbreds, the team of Bill Finley, Randy Moss and Zoe Cadman dissected last week's Louisiana Derby and the impressive win by Two Phil's (Hard Spun) in the GIII Jeff Ruby Steaks. Did he move up on the synthetic surface or is he a horse that has improved quickly? The trio also gave their handicapping thoughts for this week's Florida Derby and the GI Arkansas Derby.

For the video only version, click here and for Audio only, click here.

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