Zoe Cadman | Horse Racing Free Tips

HOF Rider Jerry Bailey Talks Jim Dandy And More On Writers’ Room

It was a good week to have a Hall of Fame jockey on the TDN Writers' Room, presented by Keeneland, as the Green Group Guest of the Week and especially to have that jockey be Jerry Bailey, who knows a thing or two about analyzing a race for an audience. Bailey pulled no punches when asked about whether or not he felt Forte (Violence) should have been disqualified in the Jim Dandy Saturday at Saratoga.

“I thought it was a bad call,” said Bailey. “I thought he was the best horse in the race, but I thought he should have come down. The rules of racing state that even if you are not clear of somebody and you change paths and you interfere with their progress, which you clearly did, then you should be disqualified. I mean, if you look at the chart, even the chart says he forced his way out. I'm paraphrasing here, `repeatedly bumping with the outside horse.' And then he came back in and it was negligent. So, yeah, I thought he should have come down.”

Bailey said that the danger went beyond this one race. “Look, you want a safer product out on the track as you can possibly get for both horse and rider. And I'll tell you from experience, I went through it myself. I won't name the riders, but there were two or three in New York that the stewards let get carried away and go over the line repeatedly, and then the line gets farther and farther away and it gets more severe. And what happens is the riders take it into their own hands. If the stewards are not policing the riders and enforcing the rules, then the riders are left to police themselves. And that is not a good situation.”

Bailey also relived his exploits on Cigar, his Derby wins on Sea Hero and Grindstone, and told tales about his days in the jocks' room.

Elsewhere on the Writers' Room, also sponsored by Stonestreet, NYRA Bets, Lane's End Farm, XBTV, WinStar Farm, West Point Thoroughbreds, and the Pennsylvania Horse Breeders, Randy Moss, Zoe Cadman and T.D. Thornton discussed (what else?) the Jim Dandy non-DQ, and the other big races of the weekend, previewed the upcoming Test, Whitney, and Saratoga Derby at Saratoga as well as the Clement L. Hirsch at Del Mar, and discussed the top news stories. Those included Jason Servis's four-year prison sentence, Santa Anita's decisions on improvement expenditures in light of the closing of Golden Gate, and HISA's policy change on provisional suspensions.

To watch the Writers' Room, click here. To view the show as a podcast, click here.

The post HOF Rider Jerry Bailey Talks Jim Dandy And More On Writers’ Room appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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On TDN Writers’ Room Podcast, HISA’s Lazarus Admits Mistakes Have Been Made

Because of a number of developments over the last few weeks that can be characterized as missteps, Horseracing Integrity and Safety Authority (HISA) Chief Executive Officer Lisa Lazarus has had a chance to reflect on what's gone right and what's gone wrong since the Anti-Doping and Medication Control (ADMC) Program went into effect in May. Appearing as this week's Green Group Guest of the Week on the TDN Writers' Room podcast presented by Keeneland, Lazarus addressed the problems and made no attempt to sugarcoat them.

“If we look at the main thing that people are talking about, which is the rules covering intra-articular injections, workouts and races, we just got it wrong,” she said, referring to a rule that puts horses on a 30-day suspended list when they have had a workout within seven days of an injection or have raced with 14 days of the injection. HISA did not always enforce its own rules and several horses raced and/or worked while suspended.

She continued: “There's really nothing more I can say. But what I'm proud of is that we're a team and when we realize we get something wrong, we don't sort of sit on ego or stand on principle and say, we don't care. We're going to just power through. We try to fix it. So I realize that's going to always yield some criticism. And I accept that because, sure, ideally it will be better not to have gotten it wrong.”

Another issue was the initial rule which imposed a 60-day suspension on a trainer violating the intra-articular rule, which many saw as being too harsh of a penalty. HISA has amended the rule and first time offenders will no longer be subject to a suspension.

“The sanction was way too onerous given if you look at the entire structure of the sanctioning system,” she said. “It was just way too severe of a sanction to penalize a trainer for 60 days.”

One area in which HISA does not appear to be ready to make changes is how it deals with trainers who receive positives for substances that are on the banned substance list. In that case, the trainer is provisionally suspended almost immediately, before they have had a hearing and before the results of a split sample have come back. HISA critics have called this a case of “guilty until proven innocent.”

“I'm a huge believer in the provisional suspension,” she said. “I know it's tough and people have got to adjust to it and we've got to make sure that everything is okay in terms of how it operates. But it's a game changer because otherwise there's just too much incentive to kick things down the road. Do you really believe that any trainer would have come forward within 48 hours of a notification with information that was exculpatory if he or she was not really suspended? We need to get these things moving more quickly.”

Elsewhere on the podcast, which is also sponsored by the Pennsylvania Horse Breeders Association, Kentucky Thoroughbred Owners and Breeders, NYRABets.com, WinStar Farm, XBTV.com andhttps://www.threechimneys.com/ West Point Thoroughbreds, the team of Bill Finley, Randy Moss and Zoe Cadman fondly remembered 2003 GI Kentucky Derby winner Funny Cide (Distorted Humor), who died earlier in the week of colic. The impending closure of Golden Gate Fields, announced Sunday by 1/ST Racing, was another major topic of discussion as was the coming weekend of racing, which will be topped by the GI Haskell S. at Monmouth. On the betting front, an explosive op/ed in the TDN written by Thoro-Graph's Jerry Brown about Computer Assisted Wagering (CAW) was on the menu, with the team agreeing with Brown's main premise, that CAW play is a serious problem that has to be addressed.

Click here to watch the Writers' Room podcast or here for the audio-only version.

The post On TDN Writers’ Room Podcast, HISA’s Lazarus Admits Mistakes Have Been Made appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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Andy Serling Joins The TDN Writers’ Room

With Saratoga opening, NYRA TV Analyst and Handicapper Andy Serling will be ultra busy over the next seven plus weeks, spending countless hours on every card as he tries to pick winners and give his viewers valuable betting advice. But he's not complaining. It's hard to imagine anyone who loves Saratoga more. To talk about the meet, Serling joined the team on this week's TDN Writers' Room podcast presented by Keeneland. Serling, who has been attending the meet on a regular basis since 1975, was the Green Group Guest of the Week.

When asked if Saratoga will surpass last year's record when $878 million was bet on the meet, Serling said it all depends on the weather. Only 17 races were taken off the turf last year.

“You don't want to sit around and say we're going to do as well or better than we did last year because weather is going to play a major role in that,” Serling said. “But I don't see anything happening that's going to severely negatively affect us. There are weather situations where it rains a decent amount and it's especially a problem if it happens on Saturdays. But other than that, there's a great interest in Saratoga. It remains a place that people just love to go to. So there's no reason not to be optimistic or hopeful that things will go well. But you don't want to get caught up in that because we're geniuses when the weather's good and we're idiots when the weather's bad. Saratoga is a magical place and it seems to continue to do well regardless of what the environment is.”

One race he will be keeping his eye on is the one for the riding title. Irad Ortiz, Jr. was an easy winner last year, but it was his brother, Jose, who won the title at the Belmont spring meet.

“I think it's a very friendly rivalry between Jose and Irad,” he said. “Irad has won four of the last eight and Jose has won three of them. To suggest it's not likely to come down to these two guys is unlikely. Now, this is the first full summer that Jose has been with agent Steve Rushing. He was with Jimmy Riccio before. I wouldn't count Luis Saez out because he's been riding at Churchill and if some of these Churchill trainers do well that he's riding for I think he will have a chance to win it for the second time. Flavien Prat, Joel Rosario are guys who have a chance. I just don't know that they'll get the same kind of mounts to be able to win a jockey title. They might win a lot of stakes. They might win bigger races, but it's tough to go past the two Ortiz brothers.”

As for the trainers, it appears this will be another year where the race comes down to Chad Brown and Todd Pletcher.

“It's going to probably come down to those two guys, Todd and Chad, and it'll probably hinge really on how many good two year olds they have, how many maiden races they win,” Serling said. “Pletcher is capable and we've seen in the past his winning a boatload of maiden races. If he doesn't, he's not going to compete for the title. But the other thing is that one thing that Todd is exceptionally good at is being prepared for off the turf. Todd is usually in there with somebody and it's something that he usually has an advantage on. Chad's strength is often turf racing. So if we get a lot of rain, they come off the turf, it's going to cost Chad.”

Elsewhere on the podcast, which is also sponsored by the Pennsylvania Horse Breeders Association, Kentucky Thoroughbred Owners and Breeders, NYRABets.com, WinStar Farm, XBTV.com and West Point Thoroughbreds, the team of Bill Finley, Randy Moss and Zoe Cadman talked about what was a rocky week for the Horseracing Integrity and Safety Authority (HISA) and whether or not the way it and the Horseracing Integrity and Welfare Unit (HIWU) has been dealing with those who had positive tests for banned substances is a case of “guilty until proven innocent.” There was a review of last week's big races, including the win by Reincarnate (Good Magic) in the Los Alamitos Derby. The team also focused on the story of jockey 61-year-old Cindy Murphy. Murphy won the July 8 GIII Iowa Oaks aboard Crypto Mo (Mohaymen), which was both her 2,000th career victory and her first-ever win in a graded stakes race.

Click here for the audio-only version.

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Pat Cummings Joins The TDN Writers’ Room Podcast

Computer Assisted Wagering (CAW) has been a hot topic of late. What we know is that there are a handful gamblers that use computer algorithms to formulate their wagers, are allowed to make their bets at the very last second and receive substantial rebates. But there's a lot we don't know, like how much are they betting, what pools they most prefer and what affect has that had on the “regular” player? In his latest report for the Thoroughbred Idea Foundation (TIF), entitled Sharks & Minnows, TIF Executive Director Pat Cummings dug into the issue. To find out more about his findings, the TDN Writers' Room podcast presented by Keeneland was joined this week by Cummings. He was the Green Group Guest of the Week.

Using data from Del Mar, Cummings concluded that CAW players are betting more each year and that the amount of betting from “everyone else” is declining.

“Not only are the sharks growing, but the minnows are declining,” he said. “For the first time in this paper, were able to really separate how the CAW play has grown and how all other customers have in almost every pool shrunk. Total handle figures are often marketed in the industry press releases, they're touted. It looks like on an annual basis that not a whole lot has changed. That's not telling us the accurate picture. For years now, the Thoroughbred Idea Foundation has wanted to really dive into who's betting, how are they betting, how are they participating and how is the market changing? What we're seeing now more clearly than ever before is what's happening with all other customers. We're talking about people that may bet $10 a year or maybe even $2 million a year. They are a smaller percentage of the pools and declining.”

When asked if this could lead to a “doomsday” scenario, whereby the “sharks” have driven all the “minnows” out of the game, Cummings said that is in fact a concern.

“I'd call it a real threat,” he said. “And I would suggest that some of the biggest sharks are eating some of the smaller ones too.”

He estimated that CAW players now account for 33% of the total handle in U.S. racing

Cummings is not in favor of banning CAW players. He recognizes that if they go away overall handle would plummet, which could be catastrophic. The answer he says is to find ways to level the playing field when it comes to the sharks versus the minnows, starting with the takeout.

“Takeout rates have not come down commensurate with all of this money coming in (from CAW players) at low price points and driven by technology,” he said. “That's the opposite experience that investors have had in almost all other areas, where we have seen costs for customers come crashing down. The days of the $35 stock commission are long gone. And yet 50, 60, maybe even 70% of all trading on the stock market now is high-frequency trading. Ordinary investors in 401Ks and IRAs, regular mutual fund holders, exchange traded funds, different products have been created to allow ordinary investors to buy and hold. And their costs have come down from where they were 20 years ago. We have not seen that same evolution in American horse racing wagering, which remains one of the most expensive gambles out there.”

Cummings also called on the industry to end all jackpot bets. He has found that not only do they keep money out of circulation by cutting down on churn, but that the CAW players often come in and take home a disproportionate amount of the pool at the expense of the regular player.

“If you run a parimutuel wagering business and your goal is to keep collecting commissions on parimutuel wagering, then why introduce a bet that limits the number of times that a customer can keep coming back to your window and churning their money?” he said. “You're going in the complete opposite direction to all traditional business logic, which is you should drive customers back into your wagering pools. Yet, tracks continued to persist with these bets. The jackpots need to go as quickly as possible. Tracks need to revert to a traditional play, get that daily payout, get that churn up. The sport needs churn. It's better for every stakeholder along the way.”

Elsewhere on the podcast, which is also sponsored by Coolmore,https://lanesend.com/ the Pennsylvania Horse Breeders Association, Kentucky Thoroughbred Owners and Breeders, 1/st Racing, WinStar Farm, Lane's End, XBTV.com and https://www.threechimneys.com/ West Point Thoroughbreds, the team of Bill Finley, Randy Moss and T.D. Thornton, took a look at the win by Two Phil's (Hard Spun) in the GIII Ohio Derby and his subsequent injury and retirement. There was a look back at the Royal Ascot meet, where one of the highlights was the win by the U.S. based 2-year-old filly Crimson Advocate (Nyquist) in the G2 Queen Mary S., and a look ahead at Saturday's GI Stephen Foster S. at Ellis Park. The podcastwrapped up with a discussion on a new proposed rule by the New York Gaming Commission which would require all horses to undergo checks by a veterinarian 72 hours prior to a race or a workout.

Click here to watch the Writers' Room podcast or here for the audio-only version.

The post Pat Cummings Joins The TDN Writers’ Room Podcast appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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