TDN Derby Top 12: Little Thaw in Early Winter Ranks

We're still in the early part of the season where the rankings are largely based on juvenile form and a hefty dose of speculation. As we segue into February, the forecast calls for “frost heaves” that will likely shift the balance of power just enough to keep things interesting. But at 15 weeks out, everyone on the GI Kentucky Derby trail is still allowed to dream big.

1) ARABIAN KNIGHT (c, Uncle Mo–Borealis Night, by Astrology) 'TDN Rising Star'. O-Zedan Racing Stables, Inc.; B-Corser Thoroughbreds LLC (KY); T-Bob Baffert. Sales history: $250,000 Ylg '21 KEESEP; $2,300,000 2yo '22 OBSAPR. Lifetime Record: 1-1-0-0, $86,025. Last start: 1st Keeneland Maiden Special Weight, Nov. 5. KY Derby Points: 0.

'TDN Rising Star' Arabian Knight (($250,000 KEESEP, $2.3 million OBSAPR sale-topper) is Oaklawn-bound. Trainer Bob Baffert disclosed to Daily Racing Form on Sunday that the

GIII Southwest S. on Saturday will be the 2023 coming-out party for the powerful colt who blitzed to a dominant (7 1/4 lengths with a 97 Beyer Speed Figure) victory on the Breeders' Cup undercard in his one and only start.

To put this son of Uncle Mo's 1:21.98 final clocking from that race into perspective, the only other seven-furlong race on Breeders' Cup Saturday, the GI Filly and Mare Sprint, which featured older, highly accomplished distaffers, was timed just .37 seconds faster.

“He's not speed-crazy,” jockey John Velazquez said after that scintillating win. “I put my hands down, he came right back to me. Settled really good on the turn, and when I asked him to go down the stretch, he was there for me.”

At this point we have to insert the usual disclaimer that's become standard in the Top 12 write-ups the past two years: Churchill Downs has banned Baffert from the Derby related to his under-appeal equine drug DQ from the 2021 Derby, and his trainees are prohibited from earning qualifying points and competing in the Derby itself. But while this issue plays out via litigation and at the racing commission level, the focus here will be on the talents of his horses and not courtroom drama.

Saturday's Southwest now looms as the most compelling stakes on the Derby trail that we've seen so far this year.

 2) FORTE (c, Violence–Queen Caroline, by Blame) 'TDN Rising Star'. O-Repole Stable and St. Elias Stable; B-South Gate Farm (KY); T-Todd Pletcher. Sales history: $80,000 Wlg '20 KEENOV; $110,000 Ylg '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: MGISW, 5-4-0-0, $1,595,150. Last start: 1st GI FanDuel Breeders' Cup Juvenile presented by TAA, Nov. 4. KY Derby Points: 40.

Beyond the gravitas of having won three straight Grade I stakes, including his 100-Beyer score in the GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile, Forte stands out among the Top 12 contenders for his ability to break well, settle willingly, and reel in targets.

Those traits were evident in both of his wins at 1 1/16 miles at Keeneland and his neck victory in the GI Breeders' Futurity S. (with the remainder of the field six lengths behind the top two) was in many ways a more powerful performance than his 1 1/2-length Juvenile tally.

This 'TDN Rising Star' was forwardly placed, but edged back to seventh in his Oct. 8 race, attained a nice cruising speed amongst traffic, then methodically worked his way up to a contending spot before being fully unleashed off the far turn to knock back multiple bids from a very game runner-up.

In the Juvenile, Forte again came out running, picked a prime stalking spot, waited patiently, then sliced off the inside while building up serious momentum to collar a wilting favorite before being kept to task through the final sixteenth.

The Mar. 4 GII Fountain of Youth S. at Gulfstream is slated as his sophomore debut, with the GI Florida Derby or the GI Toyota Blue Grass S. possibilities after that. An easy three-eighths breeze on Saturday marked his return to the work tab at Palm Beach Downs.

3) CAVE ROCK (c, Arrogate–Georgie's Angel, by Bellamy Road) 'TDN Rising Star'. O-Michael E. Pegram, Karl Watson, and Paul Weitman; B-Anne and Ronnie Sheffer Racing LLC (KY); T-Bob Baffert. Sales history: $210,000 Wlg '20 KEENOV; $550,000 Ylg '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: MGISW, 4-3-1-0, $748,000. Last start: 2nd GI FanDuel Breeders' Cup Juvenile presented by TAA, Nov. 4. KY Derby Points: 0.

Purely based on the way the Breeders' Cup Juvenile unfolded, 'TDN Rising Star' Cave Rock's beaten-fave second has a “lost the battle, but it could improve his chances in the overall war” type of flavor to it.

This strapping son of Arrogate got keyed up pre-race and exerted himself trying to fight free from a 70-1 long shot through an opening quarter of :22.90 (second-fastest opening split in the Juvenile since 2014), then had little left to stave off the onrushing Forte.

A bit of growing up so that his temperament matches the talent he displayed in getting off to a 3-for-3 start last summer (including two Grade I wins at Del Mar) will go a long way toward leveling his chances in a rematch–although he and his rival are unlikely to meet until the Derby itself considering Cave Rock is based in SoCal and Forte is wintering in Florida.

If you go by longer-term trends, losing the Juvy might also actually work in Cave Rock's favor: Since the advent of the Breeders' Cup, Juvenile winners have accounted for only two Derby wins (Nyquist in 2016 and Street Sense in 2007) from 38 runnings.

Then again, second- and third-place Juvenile finishers haven't fared much better. Those 76 horses have also accounted for only two Derby wins, by Alysheba in 1987 (third in the 1986 Juvenile) and Spend A Buck in 1985 (third in the 1984 Juvenile).

4) TAPIT TRICE (c, Tapit–Danzatrice, by Dunkirk) O-Whisper Hill Farm LLC and Gainesway Stable (Antony Beck); B-Gainesway Thoroughbreds Ltd. (KY); T-Todd Pletcher. Sales history: $1,300,000 Ylg '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: 2-1-0-1, $56,950. Last start: 1st Aqueduct Maiden Special Weight, Dec. 17. KY Derby Points: 0.

Tapit Trice was a touch green at the start of his Nov. 6 debut, then split horses capably and finished with interest, justifying 17-10 favoritism in his Dec. 17 maiden-breaking win.

Both races were more visually impressive than their Beyers (73 and 89) suggest, and considering that Tapit Trice's one-turn-mile score came over a muddy, sealed Aqueduct surface, the suggestion here is to take those speed figures with a figurative grain of salt.

The vagaries of winter racing in New York can sometimes make it difficult to come up with accurate projections and final numbers, and as we saw last season on the Triple Crown trail (when eventual GI Preakness S. winner Early Voting got a winning 78 Beyer from February at Aqueduct retooled months later to a significantly higher 87), all figures are subject to revision when circumstances warrant it.

This gray son of Tapit who hammered for $1.3 million at KEESEP is now at Palm Beach Downs for trainer Todd Pletcher and has been breezing on a weekly basis for his first start against winners.

5) BANISHING (c, Ghostzapper–Dowager, by A.P. Indy) O/B-Godolphin (KY); T-Brendan Walsh. Lifetime Record: 2-1-0-0, $42,000. Last start: 1st Fair Grounds Maiden Special Weight, Dec. 26. KY Derby Points: 0.

Banishing had to scratch out of an allowance/optional claimer at Fair Grounds on Saturday after reportedly getting cast in his stall and scraping a hind leg. The abrasions aren't considered serious enough to derail him from long-term training.

This Godolphin homebred broke his maiden over 1 1/16 miles  Dec. 26 in New Orleans, edging away on the lead while taking pace pressure before blasting the race open in deep stretch by 8 1/2 lengths (90 Beyer). That MSW route has already yielded one next-out winner, who popped at 18-1 odds on Saturday.

Banishing's Nov. 13 debut in a one-turn-mile at Churchill was also much better than it appears on paper: He raced in the 10 path early yet contested the pace, then rallied four wide into the turn before almost attaining the lead between calls. After it looked like he was fading from his mid-race efforts, he kicked in again and secured fourth.

6) FAUSTIN (c, Curlin–Hard Not to Like, by Hard Spun) 'TDN Rising Star' O-Michael L Petersen. B-DATTT Farm (Ky). T-Bob Baffert. Sales history: $285,000 RNA yrl '21 KEESEP; $800,000 2yo '22 OBSAPR. Lifetime Record: 1-1-0-0, $40,200. Last start: Maiden win at Santa Anita. Kentucky Derby Points: 0.

Faustin earned 'TDN Rising Star' status sprinting in his Dec. 26 debut, but you don't have to dig too deeply in his pedigree to uncover reliable stamina influences.

At 10 furlongs, sire Curlin ran third in the 2007 Derby and later won the GI Breeders' Cup Classic, while damsire Hard Spun was Curlin's rival that same season, finishing just ahead of him when second in the Derby and right behind him when second in the Classic. Faustin's dam, Hard Not to Like, was a three-time Grade I grass victress at distances up to nine furlongs. And his second dam on the female side, Like a Gem, scored in three grass routes in Canada, including one at 1 1/4 miles at age three.

Faustin ($285,000 RNA KEESEP; $800,000 OBSAPR after breezing an eighth in :10 flat), a high-energy gray, was unfazed by a slow start, a “busy” ride, and twice having to switch off heels turning for home in his 89-Beyer win.

7) SIGNATOR (c, Tapit–Pension, by Seeking the Gold) 'TDN Rising Star' O-West Point Thoroughbreds, Woodford Racing, Gainesway Stable, Phipps Stable, Ken Langone, Edward Hudson, Jr. and Lane's End Racing. B-Gainesway Thoroughbreds. T-Claude McGaughey III. Sales history: $1,700,000 2yo '22 OBSAPR. Lifetime Record: 2-1-1-0, $71,250. Last Start: Maiden win at BAQ Oct. 14. Kentucky Derby Points: 0.

Much like Tapit Trice ranked at No. 4, Signator is another son of Tapit who wasn't quite ready for prime time in his debut, but nevertheless raced with enough promise despite greenness to win as the deserving favorite in start number two.

And yes, just like it was mentioned in Tapit Trice's write-up, this could be a case in which the visual resonance of Signator's races rate higher than the two Beyers he received (73 in each race).

This $1.7 million OBSAPR colt was penciled in for a third start, in the Nov. 6 GIII Nashua S., but trainer Shug McGuaghey had to withdraw him because of a wrenched ankle that has since healed. After a Dec. 31 breeze at Payson Park, Signator was absent from the work tab until Jan. 18, so it looks like he's going to need a touch more time before we see him in the entries, most likely at either Gulfstream or Tampa.

8) VICTORY FORMATION (c, Tapwrit–Smart N Soft, by Smart Strike) 'TDN Rising Star' O-Spendthrift Farm & Frank Fletcher Racing Operations. B-Gainesway Thoroughbreds Ltd. (Ky). T-Brad Cox. Sales history: $100,000 wnlg '20 KEENOV; $150,000 yrl '21 FTKJUL; $340,000 2yo '22 FTMMAY. Lifetime Record: SW, 3-3-0-0, $282,285. Last Start: 1st Smarty Jones S., Jan.1 at OP. Kentucky Derby Points: 10.

Even though he's a 3-for-3 'TDN Rising Star,' Victory Formation flies a touch under the radar within the Top 12. But that's primarily because his connections have shaped his early-career progression arc without yet attempting a graded stakes.

This son of 2017 GI Belmont S. victor Tapwrit most recently coasted home unopposed by three lengths at 3-5 odds in Oaklawn's short-stretch Smarty Jones S. at one mile, and even though that field gave off a weak-on-paper vibe, the win still represented a capable, no-nonsense two-turn debut and it capped a trio of escalating Beyers that now reads 81, 85 and 91 without any numerical regression so far.

“He's a pretty smart horse,” trainer Brad Cox recently told the Oaklawn notes team. “I know I've said that several times, but he really is. He's a horse that doesn't overdo it. He's not too hard on himself and I think that's going to take him a long way and, hopefully, allow him to get more ground.”

The nine-furlong Feb. 18 GII Risen Star S. at Victory Formation's Fair Grounds training base could be next, with the following Saturday's 1 1/16-miles GII Rebel S. at Oaklawn a possible backup option.

9) HEJAZI (c, 3, Bernardini–G Note, by Medaglia d'Oro) O-Zedan Racing Stables, Inc. B-Chester & Mary Broman (NY); T-Bob Baffert. Sales history: $3,550,000 2yo '22 EASMAY. Lifetime Record: GISP, 4-1-2-1, $108,200. Last Start: Maiden win at SA Jan. 15. Kentucky Derby Points: 0.

With the exception of his sale-topping $3.55-million EASMAY price tag, Hejazi doesn't fit the mold of many of Bob Baffert's trainees who embark upon the Derby trail.

For starters, this colt is a New York-bred. His three older siblings own an aggregate record of 3-for-35, competing largely at the low end of the claiming echelon. Hejazi also required four starts to break his maiden.

But the experience he compiled at age two includes two runner-up tries (one behind a track-record winning stablemate at 5 1/2 furlongs), plus a third-place effort in a Grade I route when up against No. 3-ranked phenom Cave Rock.

“We gave him some time, gave him a chance to reboot,” said Baffert after this colt's 97-Beyer win as a first-time Lasix user going 6 1/2 furlongs at Santa Anita Jan. 15. “We wanted to get some weight back on him. We put him through a pretty ambitious [juvenile campaign].”

Sent for speed from post one, always under pressure, and shrugging off his two closest pursuers with aplomb inside the final sixteenth, Hejazi's “worth-the-wait” effort was athletically impressive enough to land him a berth within the Top 12.

10) INSTANT COFFEE (c, Bolt d'Oro–Follow No One, by Uncle Mo) O-Gold Square LLC. B-Sagamore Farm (Ky). T-Brad Cox. Sales history: $200,000 yrl '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW, 3-2-0-0, $322,815. Last Start: Won Jan. 21 GIII Lecomte S. Kentucky Derby Points: 32.

Instant Coffee has now taken the overland route from off the pace to win two consecutive graded stakes at 1 1/16 miles after his 92-Beyer score in the GIII Lecomte S. on Saturday.

There were six races at that distance Jan. 21 at Fair Grounds, and this son of Bolt d'Oro posted the fastest final clocking, running .19 seconds quicker than older Grade III stakes horses in the Louisiana S. a half-hour earlier.

When compared to his sophomore peers however, Instant Coffee's final times for the Lecomte and his win in the GII Kentucky Jockey Club S. represent the sixth- and seventh-slowest among the eight points-awarding Derby qualifying races run so far at 1 1/16 miles in 2022-23.

Trainer Brad Cox said Sunday that Instant Coffee is likely to keep racing in New Orleans, but he's undecided if the remainder of his prep campaign will include both the Risen Star S. and the GII Louisiana Derby, or just the Louisiana Derby itself.

11) JACE'S ROAD (c, Quality Road–Out Post, by Silver Deputy) 'TDN Rising Star' O-West Point Thoroughbreds & Albaugh Family Stables LLC. B-Colts Neck Stables (Ky). T-Brad Cox. Sales history: $510,000 yrl '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: SW & GSP, 4-2-0-1, $126,800. Last Start: Won Gun Runner S. at Fair Grounds Dec. 26. Kentucky Derby Points: 13

'TDN Rising Star' Jace's Road already has run three two-turn stakes. Even though one of them is a complete “put a line through it” type of race, the important thing is this $510,000 KEESEP son of Quality Road rebounded capably to win right back off what trainer Brad Cox described as a “meltdown” performance.

In the GIII Street Sense S .at Churchill Oct. 30, favorite Jace's Road dislodged his jockey at the gate, jogged off for a furlong, was remounted, then ran a lackluster eighth over a sealed, sloppy surface.

We'll still probably have to guess as to whether he'll be able handle another off track. But his rebound race in the Dec. 26 Gun Runner S. at Fair Grounds was a 90-Beyer wiring that underscored this colt's ability to put his head down, find the front, and take pressure while seeming unfazed by it en route to the winner's circle.

Jace's Road was projected to be the early favorite for Saturday's Southwest S. before word broke that No. 1-ranked Arabian Knight would be crashing the party.

12) DETERMINEDLY (c, Cairo Prince–Bailzee, by Grand Slam) O-John Oxley. B-Bedouin Bloodstock (Ky). T-Mark Casse. Sales history: $80,000 yrl '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: 8-2-2-1, $188,950. Last Start: AOC victory at Fair Grounds Jan. 21. Kentucky Derby Points: 3.

Determinedly, an $80,000 KEESEP gray by Cairo Prince, already has made eight starts. That's not a huge number by historical standards, but in this less-is-more era of prepping Derby prospects, his experience stands out.

True, it took him six tries to find the winner's circle. But he did race respectably against grass stakes company at Saratoga last summer while still a maiden, and his transition back to dirt has resulted in a maiden win, a trip-troubled third in the Gun Runner S., and a score on Saturday in an allowance/optional claimer (the one that No. 5-ranked Banishing scratched out of).

He shook free on the front end through moderate splits and did tire a bit late, but the effort bears watching as a stepping-stone type of race considering he showed a new dimension in seizing the lead.

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High-Priced Hejazi Breaks Maiden At Santa Anita

1st-Santa Anita, $68,000, Msw, 1-15, 3yo, 6 1/2f, 1:14.58, gd,1 1/4 lengths.

HEJAZI (c, 3, Bernardini–G Note, by Medaglia d'Oro), the $3,550,000 EASMAY sale-topper, finally got the monkey off his back Sunday, winning a rescheduled maiden special weight contest at Santa Anita. Bested by SW Classical Cat (Mendelssohn) after a slow start when first seen at Del Mar Aug. 20, it took a track-record setting effort by stablemate and GSW Speed Boat Beach (Bayern) to best him again Sept. 10. Third in a Bob Baffert exacta topped by Cave Rock (Arrogate) in the GI American Pharoah S., Hejazi returned to the favorite's role in an overmatched field Sunday as the 1-2 favorite. Breaking just a half-step slow from the inside gate, Mike Smith allowed his mount to move up to set the tempo with Sully (Uncle Mo) pressuring to his outside. Still in command as he swung for home, Hejazi had enough of a gap built up through the final sixteenth to safely hold off a closing Worcester and win by 1 1/4 lengths.

“We gave him some time, gave him a chance to re-boot,” said winning trainer Bob Baffert. “We wanted to get some weight back on him. We put him through a pretty ambitious (three-race sequence). Mike got him to relax a little bit. Once I saw him out there cruising… We're gonna have fun with him.”

G Note, herself a half-sister to the dams of GSW Un Ojo (Laoban) and SW & GSP Fingal's Cave (Carpe Diem), traces back to MGISW Antespend (Spend a Buck) and GI Florida Derby winner Friends Lake (A.P. Indy). She produced a 2-year-old colt by Practical Joke, a yearling colt by Improbable, and was barren to Rock Your World for 2023. Sales History: $3,550,000 2yo '22 EASMAY. Lifetime Record: GISP, 4-1-2-1, $108,200. Click for the Equibase.com chart or VIDEO, sponsored by TVG.

O-Zedan Racing Stables, Inc.; B-Chester & Mary R. Broman (NY); T-Bob Baffert.

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Derby Top 12: The Point Race Begins

The first week of January doesn't have much in common with the first Saturday in May–with the exception that the inaugural TDN Top 12 has arrived to herald the coming of the seemingly far-off GI Kentucky Derby season. Get tied on and enjoy the ride.

1) ARABIAN KNIGHT (c, Uncle Mo–Borealis Night, by Astrology)
'TDN Rising Star'. O-Zedan Racing Stables, Inc.; B-Corser Thoroughbreds LLC (KY); T-Bob Baffert. Sales history: $250,000 Ylg '21 KEESEP; $2,300,000 2yo '22 OBSAPR. Lifetime Record: 1-1-0-0, $86,025. Last start: 1st Keeneland Maiden Special Weight, Nov. 5. KY Derby Points: 0.

It wasn't too long ago that ranking a colt who has zero experience beyond the maiden ranks as your Derby kingpin in the dead of winter would have been an audacious selection. But now, in this era where a Triple Crown “foundation” often consists of just two or three sophomore prep races, heading a list with a lightly experienced contender like 'TDN Rising Star' Arabian Knight isn't all that outlandish.

This powerful son of Uncle Mo ($250,000 KEESEP; $2.3 million OBSAPR sale-topper) didn't just “debut” on the Breeders' Cup undercard–his presence in Lexington on racing's championship weekend was a well-orchestrated unveiling by trainer Bob Baffert for owner Zedan Racing Stables. Fast and fluid off the mark going seven furlongs, this bay responded to rating from John Velazquez but still drew away responsively to win by a dazzling 7 1/4 lengths (97 Beyer Speed Figure).

“We took a big chance bringing him here to run,” Baffert said post-win. “Johnny asked me, 'How Good is he?' I said, 'You ride him like you rode Uncle Mo, because I think he's Uncle Mo.' And the way he moves; he's been working with older horses-unbelievable.”

Baffert told TDN via text on Sunday he's not ready to commit to a particular comeback race and that, “We are going slow with him. No rush to run him.” But Arabian Knight is now five works into his training at Santa Anita, including a bullet six furlongs on Dec. 30, so he's got to be getting close.

For the second straight year, Churchill Downs has banished Baffert from the Derby related to his under-appeal equine drug DQ from the 2021 Derby, and his trainees are prohibited from earning qualifying points. While this issue plays out in the courts and at the racing commission level, the focus for TDN's Top 12 writeups will be on the horses and not the trainer's eligibility status.

2) FORTE (c, Violence–Queen Caroline, by Blame)
'TDN Rising Star'. O-Repole Stable and St. Elias Stable; B-South Gate Farm (KY); T-Todd Pletcher. Sales history: $80,000 Wlg '20 KEENOV; $110,000 Ylg '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: 5-4-0-0, $1,595,150. Last start: 1st GI FanDuel Breeders' Cup Juvenile presented by TAA, Nov. 4. KY Derby Points: 40.

'TDN Rising Star' Forte stamped himself as the crop-topper among up to 1 1/16 miles, and he looms as the deserving favorite for the divisional championship in the Eclipse Award voting. Two Grade I wins in his only two route attempts underscore that this son of Violence has already checked some important boxes along his development arc.

Trainer Todd Pletcher has outlined a two-prep path to Louisville that includes a sophomore debut in the Mar. 4 GII Fountain of Youth S., followed by either the GI Florida Derby or the GI Blue Grass S. This two-time auction grad ($80,000 KEENOV; $110,000 KEESEP) has proven capable of carving out fortuitous trips while negotiating large fields, largely thanks to precision far-turn targeting over short-stretch configurations at Keeneland by jockey Irad Ortiz, Jr.

Owned in partnership by Repole Stable and St. Elias Stable, Forte outmuscled a tenacious runner-up by wresting back the lead in deep stretch of the 14-horse GI Breeders' Futurity S., and in the 10-horse GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile he adeptly reeled in the odds-on favorite while encountering no serious challengers late in the lane (100 Beyer).

Forte's biggest Derby obstacle might involve bucking a daunting historical trend: Since the advent of the Breeders' Cup in 1984, Juvenile winners have accounted for only two Derby wins (Nyquist and Street Sense) from 38 runnings.

3) CAVE ROCK (c, Arrogate–Georgie's Angel, by Bellamy Road)
'TDN Rising Star'. O-Michael E. Pegram, Karl Watson, and Paul Weitman; B-Anne and Ronnie Sheffer Racing LLC (KY); T-Bob Baffert. Sales history: $210,000 Wlg '20 KEENOV; $550,000 Ylg '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: 4-3-1-0, $748,000. Last start: 2nd GI FanDuel Breeders' Cup Juvenile presented by TAA, Nov. 4. KY Derby Points: 0.

'TDN Rising Star' Cave Rock, who races with his head slung low in a style reminiscent of his sire, Arrogate, has been likened to a big, powerful football fullback by trainer Bob Baffert. But despite being very mature-looking physically, this imposing dual sales grad ($210,000 KEENOV; $550,000 KEESEP) got so keyed up prior to his second-place finish as the beaten fave in the Breeders' Cup that the mental duress surely cost him some on-track energy.

Owned by Mike Pegram, Karl Watson and Paul Weitman, this two-time Grade I winner unleashed a 104 Beyer in his two-turn debut, the GI American Pharoah S., while never appearing close to being fully extended.

But it was a different story a month later in the Juvenile, when Cave Rock was committed to the lead outside of a 70-1 shot through a :22.90 opening quarter, had trouble settling, then took command about halfway home with foes nipping at his heels. Approaching the far turn, it initially looked as if Cave Rock was cresting to a high cruising speed with a short-stretch finish ahead and main rival Forte six lengths behind.

But Forte was just getting wound up while Cave Rock was feeling the effects of his toil, and although Cave Rock initially met Forte's challenge, he came unhinged under left-handed stick work while languishing too long on his left lead in the stretch. He was no match for the winner, but Cave Rock left the impression that a better-focused version of him could be capable of reversing that result.

4) TAPIT TRICE (c, Tapit–Danzatrice, by Dunkirk)
O-Whisper Hill Farm LLC and Gainesway Stable (Antony Beck); B-Gainesway Thoroughbreds Ltd. (KY); T-Todd Pletcher. Sales history: $1,300,000 Ylg '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: 2-1-0-1, $56,950. Last start: 1st Aqueduct Maiden Special Weight, Dec. 17. KY Derby Points: 0.

This gray son of Tapit who hammered for $1.3 million at KEESEP was bet down to second favoritism debuting at Aqueduct Nov. 6. A bit raw at the break of a one-turn mile from the outermost post, Tapit Trice got a decent schooling tucking in behind, then splitting horses before finishing with interest and galloping out ahead of the only two horses who beat him (73 Beyer).

Owned in partnership by Whisper Hill Farm and breeder Gainesway, this Todd Pletcher trainee learned from that experience by overcoming trip adversity to score in start number two, another one-mile-try, as the 17-10 fave Dec. 17 over a sealed, muddy Aqueduct surface.

Off slowly, Tapit Trice lagged but got maneuvered to the eight path to avoid getting pelted with kickback. It took him awhile to get into gear, tagging on to the end of the first flight about a half mile from home, then commencing a field-looping bid way out in the six path. He engaged the two leaders off the bend, maintained the upper hand when enduring some brushing and bumping from the outward-shifting second fave, then nailed the win by a neck without seeming one bit fazed by the stretch fight (89 Beyer).

The effort wasn't a spectacular, blow-away victory. But Tapit Trice completed his assigned task very capably while demonstrating there is raw, Derby-quality talent beneath a still-unpolished surface.

5) BANISHING (c, Ghostzapper–Dowager, by A.P. Indy)
O/B-Godolphin (KY); T-Brendan Walsh. Lifetime Record: 2-1-0-0, $42,000. Last start: 1st Fair Grounds Maiden Special Weight, Dec. 26. KY Derby Points: 0.

A chestnut with a distinctively jagged blaze, this Godolphin homebred by Ghostzapper out of an A.P. Indy mare started his career Nov. 13 in a one-turn-mile MSW at Churchill, breaking from post 12 and racing in the 10 path early while cruising up to be within two lengths of the lead through a well-contested pace.

Banishing was four wide into the turn, quickened 3 ½ furlongs out, then got within a nostril of the lead just before the field hit the top of the stretch. He initially seemed to tire from that stout middle move, but sparked back to life late in the lane only to lose a photo for fourth behind a favored winner and a third-place horse who came back to win at 3-5 odds in a subsequent Gulfstream MSW.

On Dec. 26 at Fair Grounds, this Brendan Walsh trainee added Lasix, stretched out to 1 1/16 miles, and was sent off as the 2-1 chalk. Unhurried out of the gate, he established position at the rail in a three-way go and kept edging away under pressure. Banishing was headed off the final turn but immediately met that affront, throttling open late while leaving the second and third faves reeling in his 8 ½-length wake.

He earned a 90 Beyer, and his maiden-breaking final clocking of 1:44.80 was .05 seconds faster than the same-distance Gun Runner S. for more experienced juveniles later on the card.

6) LOGGINS (c, Ghostzapper–Beyond Blame, by Blame)
'TDN Rising Star'. O-Spendthrift Farm LLC, Steve Landers Racing LLC, Martin S. Schwartz, Michael Dubb, Ten Strike Racing, Jim Bakke, Titletown Racing Stables, Kueber Racing LLC, Big Easy Racing LLC, and Winners Win; B-Popatop, LLC (KY); T-Brad Cox.  Sales history: $460,000 Ylg '21 FTSAUG. Lifetime Record: 2-1-1-0, $175,500. Last start: 2nd GI Claiborne Breeders' Futurity, Oct. 8. KY Derby Points: 0.

'TDN Rising Star' Loggins ($460,000 FTSAUG) went off favored in the “loaded” (five next-out winners) Breeders' Futurity S. at Keeneland, and if there was such an award as the best losing effort in a juvenile stakes, his second-place try behind the No. 2-ranked Forte would have slam-dunked it for 2022.

Running back in just three weeks after a 6 ½-furlong MSW winning debut, Loggins (trained by Brad Cox and carrying the colors of Spendthrift Farm in a 10-way partnership) established strong early inside positioning amid a crush of first-turn traffic, then was content to concede the lead while covered up in third at the fence on the backstretch.

He seized the top spot 4 ½ furlongs from the wire, and although the bid initially appeared premature, Loggins confidently chugged homeward before being accosted by Forte at the head of the lane. Forte muscled in on Loggins with one furlong left, but the less-experienced Loggins gamely responded by clawing back the lead for about six jumps before Forte eked out a neck victory at the finish.

Back in October, Cox had outlined a break for Loggins that would have the colt off for about 45 days and back in his Fair Grounds barn by December. But as of Sunday, Cox told TDN via text that Loggins still “required a little extra time” away and that his return to the track would be  “soon” with no specific prep race as the target.

7) FAUSTIN (c, Curlin–Hard Not to Like, by Hard Spun) 'TDN Rising Star' O-Michael L Petersen. B-DATTT Farm (Ky). T-Bob Baffert. Sales history: $285,000 RNA yrl '21 KEESEP; $800,000 2yo '22 OBSAPR. Lifetime Record: 1-1-0-0, $40,200. Last start: Maiden win at Santa Anita. Kentucky Derby Points: 0.

Faustin, a high-energy gray whose damsire and sire (Hard Spun and Curlin), ran second and third in the 2007 Derby, achieved 'TDN Rising Star' status in his Dec. 26 debut when he cuffed around a MSW sprint crew at Santa Anita in a manner more impressive than his 2 ¾-length winning margin and 89 Beyer might suggest.

Off a beat slow, this Bob Baffert trainee for owner Michael Lund Petersen was quickly hustled into contention by jockey Ramon Vazquez, but the hole they were aiming for closed just as the field cleared the gap. Continuously kept busy, Faustin accelerated as asked while Vazquez kept shifting laterally in an effort to pick a stalking spot, twice coming off the inside and then dropping back near the fence again in his run down the backstretch and through the turn.

At the head of the homestretch, Faustin lost momentum (but just momentarily) when he twice had to be snatched off heels and switched outward to clear rivals. But once he saw daylight, this colt ($285,000 RNA KEESEP; $800,000 OBSAPR) didn't need much encouragement to kick into a willing overdrive just outside the sixteenth pole.

Faustin was digging in and appeared to be relishing the task; in this era of top prospects racing only sparingly, he has already cleared the “overcomes adversity” hurdle well ahead of most of his peers.

8) SIGNATOR (c, Tapit–Pension, by Seeking the Gold) 'TDN Rising Star' O-West Point Thoroughbreds, Woodford Racing, Gainesway Stable, Phipps Stable, Ken Langone, Edward Hudson, Jr. and Lane's End Racing. B-Gainesway Thoroughbreds. T-Claude McGaughey III. Sales history: $1,700,000 2yo '22 OBSAPR. Lifetime Record: 2-1-1-0, $71,250. Last Start: Maiden win at BAQ Oct. 14. Kentucky Derby Points: 0.

With a pedigree topped by Tapit out of a Seeking the Gold mare, Signator wasn't expected to excel sprinting in his Sept. 16 debut. But after racing a bit greenly in upper stretch, this $1.7 million OBSAPR colt made the most out of that experience by finishing with a visual flourish through the final sixteenth to gain second before galloping out with purpose past the winner.

Start number two was a muddy mile over a drying-out Aqueduct surface, and as the 3-5 favorite, Signator absorbed some bumping out of the gate, then raced with his head cocked toward the infield under a snug grab down the backstretch. Through most of the far turn, Javier Castellano kept Signator on hold near the fence behind a four-horse wall while gambling that inside passage would open up, and when it did, Signator pulsed on through like a pro, earning 'TDN Rising Star' placement in the process.

Owned by an eight-way partnership, Signator was scratched from the Nov. 6 GII Nashua S. because of a wrenched ankle that has reportedly since healed. He rejoined trainer Shug McGuaghey's Payson Park string in Florida three weeks ago and just hit the work tab on Dec. 31. His pair of relatively low 73 Beyers might be cause for pause for some Derby prognosticators, but Signator rates higher on the “how he did it” scale rather than “how fast.”

9) VICTORY FORMATION (c, Tapwrit–Smart N Soft, by Smart Strike) 'TDN Rising Star' O-Spendthrift Farm & Frank Fletcher Racing Operations. B-Gainesway Thoroughbreds Ltd. (Ky). T-Brad Cox. Sales history: $100,000 wnlg '20 KEENOV; $150,000 yrl '21 FTKJUL; $340,000 2yo '22 FTMMAY. Lifetime Record: SW, 3-3-0-0, $282,285. Last Start: 1st Smarty Jones S., Jan.1 at OP. Kentucky Derby Points: 10.

Well-bet, wire-to-wire winners have now captured the ungraded (but points-awarding) Smarty Jones S. at Oaklawn in five of the past six years after the coast-to-coast score by Victory Formation ($100,00 KEENOV; $150,000 FTKJUL; $340,000 EASMAY) on Sunday.

A 3-for-3 'TDN Rising Star' owned in partnership by Spendthrift Farm and Frank Fletcher Racing Operations, this son of Tapwrit's heavy lifting on Jan. 1 consisted largely of clearing a pesky 56-1 shot while breaking from post eight.

After an up-tempo opening quarter of :23.20,  Flavien Prat reeled off consecutive quarters of :24.55, :24.61 and :25.78 to coast home unopposed by three lengths at 3-5 odds in 1:38.14 for the short-stretch mile (91 Beyer).

“This horse has a great mind. He doesn't overdo it in the morning. He settles and I think the farther the better,” said trainer Brad Cox. ” He's got a lot of natural speed.”

 

10) LITIGATE (c, Blame–Salsa Diavola, by Mineshaft) O-Centennial Farms. B-Nursery Place & Donaldson & Broadbent (Ky). T-Todd Pletcher. Sales history: $370,000 yrl '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: 1-1-0-0, $46,750. Last Start: Aqueduct Maiden win Nov. 19. Kentucky Derby Points: 0.

Litigate, a $370,000 KEESEP buy for Centennial Farms, was sent to trainer Todd Pletcher. According to DRF's Formulator, that owner/trainer partnership is a first (at least as far back as the database goes), and it got off to a good start when this nice-striding son of Blame won at first asking sprinting 6 ½ furlongs at Aqueduct Nov. 19.

Javier Castellano asked Litigate for just enough speed to attain a sweet stalking spot behind a three-way battle for the lead, then patiently took the overland route four deep through the turn. Litigate responded to several judicious cracks of the crop in upper stretch, was still third at the eighth pole, but finished up respectably under brisk hand urging to win by three-quarters of a length (76 Beyer).

Litigate will next try a first-level allowance/optional claimer Dec. 8 at Gulfstream. Every entrant in the field of eight is first-time Lasix, with none of them entered for a tag.

 

11) INSTANT COFFEE (c, Bolt d'Oro–Follow No One, by Uncle Mo) O-Gold Square LLC. B-Sagamore Farm (Ky). T-Brad Cox. Sales history: $200,000 yrl '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW, 3-2-0-0, $322,815. Last Start: Won Nov. 26 GII Kentucky Jockey Club S. Kentucky Derby Points: 12.

Instant Coffee (Bolt d'Oro) sprung a 14-1 upset at Saratoga in his seven-furlong debut, then was one of four next-out stakes winners to emerge from the key Breeders' Futurity S. at Keeneland, a race in which he rallied from tenth to get fourth. That effort was good enough to merit favoritism in the GII Kentucky Jockey Club S. Nov. 26 at Churchill.

This $200,000 KEESEP colorbearer for Gold Square, LLC, and trainer Brad Cox was slightly hesitant at the start, then kicked into a smooth stride. After going four wide into the first turn, Instant Coffee tucked into the three path to be a midpack fifth behind a slow pace down the backstraight, then was roused assertively by Luis Saez some 3 ½ furlongs from home while again four deep on the bend.

He gave up even more ground off the final turn, but doing so freed Instant Coffee from a logjam of tiring horses toward the inside, and he responded to Saez' repeated rousing with a grinding tenacity. He momentarily shied from the outward shifting of a more physically imposing rival shortly after grabbing a brief lead at the eighth pole, but only for a stride or two before leveling off with purpose to win by 1 ¼ lengths.

Instant Coffee's lack of progression based on Beyers (debut of 85, then 81 and 82) kept him from being ranked higher at this early juncture of the season.

 

12) JACE'S ROAD (c, Quality Road–Out Post, by Silver Deputy) 'TDN Rising Star' O-West Point Thoroughbreds & Albaugh Family Stables LLC. B-Colts Neck Stables (Ky). T-Brad Cox. Sales history: $510,000 yrl '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: SW & GSP, 4-2-0-1, $126,800. Last Start: Won Gun Runner S. at Fair Grounds Dec. 26. Kentucky Derby Points: 13.

'TDN Rising Star' Jace's Road, a $510,000 KEESEP son of Quality Road, got back to his winning ways in the Gun Runner S. Dec. 26 as the second betting choice after what trainer Brad Cox had described as a “meltdown” eighth-place try as the beaten fave in his previous stakes attempt.

Owned in partnership by West Point Thoroughbreds and Albaugh Family Stables, Jace's Road's Fair Grounds performance is best described as a no-nonsense wiring through moderate-tempo splits.

He got a bit of a break when the favorite stumbled at the start and was relegated to chase mode for most of the race, and the only challenger within sniffing distance of his 5 ½-length winning margin (90 Beyer) was a pick-up-the-pieces 23-1 long shot.

The post Derby Top 12: The Point Race Begins appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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Taiba Adds to Five-Win Day for Baffert in Runhappy Malibu

On a record-setting opening day at Santa Anita, Zedan Racing Stable's Taiba (Gun Runner) earned his third Grade I victory and bolstered his chances for an Eclipse award with a 4 1/4-length victory in the GI Runhappy Malibu S. Monday in Arcadia. The win was the fifth on the card for trainer Bob Baffert, who recorded three graded victories with Fun to Dream (Arrogate) winning the GI La Brea S. and Country Grammer (Tonalist) taking the GII San Antonio S. Baffert was also represented by Faustin (Curlin), who was tabbed a 'TDN Rising Star' following his debut win in the card's fourth race.

“It just shows you the clientele that we have,” Baffert said of the brace of wins. “It is unbelievable, they let us buy these horses and I have a great team and staff. Everyone works hard, and when you are given these horses, you're lucky if you know what to do with them and sometimes you don't.

Baffert wasn't the only one having a good day in the California sunshine, as an on-track crowd of 41,446 produced an all-time opening day record all-sources pari-mutuel handle of more than $26 million.

“I just want to thank all the fans who showed up today,” Baffert said. “It is beautiful when you win with this many people here. Santa Anita is the Great Race Place.”

Taiba, the 2-5 Malibu favorite, tracked pacesetting Forbidden Kingdom (American Pharoah) through fractions of :22.18 and :44.38. He overtook the pacesetter into the stretch and turned for home in tandem with longshot Straight No Chaser (Speightster), who briefly looked a threat. But Taiba put that foe away with a furlong to run and drew away, completing the seven furlongs in 1:21.75 and becoming the only North American 3-year-old with three top-level victories in 2022. Forbidden Kingdom re-rallied for second and Hoist the Gold (Mineshaft) was third.

“That horse is like a bike and you have to pedal,” said winning rider Mike Smith. “Going long, you don't have to do it as much, but I knew that going short it would be tough. Last time he didn't break very well in the Breeders' Cup; he stumbled. I thought, 'If I break through it, I can get in front of the two next to me outside and at least gain third. Right?' Well, I didn't see the outside horse, and I decided not to take a chance and see what he was going to do. Normally, I have to get aggressive with him at that point like I did in Philadelphia, but today that horse actually helped me.”

Baffert aded, “It was a tough Malibu, but turning for home he always looks like he's empty, and he just finds new life. I don't know where he gets it from. He just has more gears and we saw an extra one today.”

Amr Zedan, who is co-owner of Country Grammer, had his second graded win of the day when Taiba strode clear in the Malibu.

Taiba, a $1.7-million purchase at the 2021 Fasig-Tipton Gulfstream sale, won the GI Santa Anita Derby in just his second start, earning a spot in the GI Kentucky Derby. He was 12th on the first Saturday in May, but had a productive second half of the season, missing by just a head when second to Cyberknife (Gun Runner) in the GI Haskell S. before winning the Sept. 24 GI Pennsylvania Derby. He was most recently third in the GI Breeders' Cup Classic.

“He's getting better and better,” Baffert said of the almost 4-year-old. “He looked a little heavy in the paddock but that's him. I think he is a lot like his sire, Gun Runner, getting better with age and he needs to go further, it is a little short for him. He has turned in to quite a horse.”

Pedigree Notes:

Taiba is one of six Grade I winners for his young sire, Gun Runner. He is the second foal out of his multiple stakes-winning Ohio-bred mare, Needmore Flattery, who sold to Yeguada Centurion while in foal to Uncle Mo for $195,000 at the 2019 Keeneland November sale. Her 2-year-old filly Tita Mimosa (Ire) (Uncle Mo) has been working at Tampa Bay Downs. The mare also has a yearling colt by Waldgeist (GB), who sold for €81,000 at this year's Arqana October sale.

Monday, Santa Anita
RUNHAPPY MALIBU S.-GI, $302,000, Santa Anita, 12-26, 3yo, 7f, 1:21.75, ft.
1–TAIBA, 124, c, 3, by Gun Runner
               1st Dam: Needmore Flattery (MSW, $732,103), by Flatter
               2nd Dam: Kiosk, by Left Banker
               3rd Dam: Phone Switch, by Phone Trick
($140,000 Ylg '20 FTKOCT; $1,700,000 2yo '21 FTFMAR).
O-Zedan Racing Stables, Inc.; B-Bruce C Ryan (KY); T-Bob
Baffert; J-Mike E. Smith. $180,000. 'TDN Rising Star'
Lifetime Record: MGISW, 7-4-1-1, $1,956,200.
Werk Nick Rating: A+++. *Triple Plus* Click for the
eNicks report & 5-cross pedigree or
the free Equineline.com catalogue-style pedigree.
2–Forbidden Kingdom, 122, c, 3, American Pharoah–Just
Louise, by Five Star Day. 1ST G1 BLACK TYPE. ($300,000 Ylg
'20 FTKSEL). O-MyRacehorse & Spendthrift Farm LLC;
B-Springhouse Farm (KY); T-Richard E. Mandella. $60,000.
3–Hoist the Gold, 120, c, 3, Mineshaft–Tacit Approval, by
Tapit. 1ST GRADED BLACK TYPE, 1ST G1 BLACK TYPE.
($47,000 RNA Ylg '20 KEESEP). O-Dream Team One Racing
Stable; B-Dream Team Racing (KY); T-Dallas Stewart.
$36,000.
Margins: 4 1/4, 3/4, NK. Odds: 0.40, 6.90, 29.30.
Also Ran: Nakatomi, Strava, Apprehend, Straight No Chaser, Messier, Perfect Flight.
Click for the Equibase.com chart or the TJCIS.com PPs. VIDEO, sponsored by TVG.

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