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Campbell: Future Talk — Digital Horse Racing With ZED Run?

This commentary originally appeared on HorseRacing.net on April 6 and is reprinted here with permission.

Could I possibly be the first professional turfwriter to pen a piece that postulates “virtual” digital horse racing will someday eclipse “live” Thoroughbred racing in the real world? And for that matter, in the future could I see myself applying for a position as a digital public handicapper, selecting horses that have names like MileyCyrus2040 and TheHammerSickle17?

Instead of bloodstock editors, in this world I am questioning, we would need code writers who could study how algorithms are constructed when reading a digital horse's pedigree. No more racetracks, a smiling face at the betting window, or physical camaraderie shortly before the call to the post? Everything continues to move online, and those days of the ubiquitous torn-up tickets scattered on empty communal tables go the way of the dodo.

Where is all this Darkseid-esque dreaming emanating from, you ask? Well, I did recently spend a portion of life watching Justice League, The Snyder Cut. . . but, that's not it.

Last Friday, the impetus actually came from an event that was scheduled specifically for the afternoon. No, it was decidedly not Opening Day at my favorite racetrack in all the world, Keeneland. In fact, it wasn't even held in a tangible place in the “real world.” In actuality it was online, in the virtual world, on a website called ZED Run. ZED Run is platform. It is what we call an e-sport. Specifically, it is a virtual horse racing site where you can buy, race, and even breed digital racehorses.

Created a couple years ago by an Australian-based company, it is part of a movement that is sweeping across the internet that directly deals with the creation of assets called NFTs, or non-fungible tokens. In case you do not know, an NFT is something unique that has a specific value in the marketplace that cannot be replicated. They can range from a digital piece of artwork to currency, like bitcoin or ethereum, which can fit on a flash drive or slide virtually into an online wallet. Next-gen stuff indeed. The history of the blockchain, that serves as a ledger constructed of bytes, is relatively youthful. Make no mistake about it, the phenomenon is blazing new trails that defy boundaries, economics, and anything else you could classify as traditional. And that includes an age-old sport like horse racing.

Starting in the mid-afternoon last Friday, some 2,000 digital horses went into the imaginary sales ring on ZED's website. As they have before, all went like hotcakes. See, there are only 38,000 of these computer-generated “Genesis” animals that exist in the world. There will not be any more after that, except if owners choose to breed a male and a female (and yes, there are colts/fillies/mares/stallions in the platform). It is part of this e-sport, and the creators are banking on NFT self-supporting sustainability.

Once you create an account, which is free, you are able to “fund” it using ethereum (if, your state supports the two mechanisms for deposit), the second most powerful cryptocurrency on the planet. Currently, 1 ETH equates to roughly $3,000.00 plus, and this allows you to enter the auction and pursue the horses that are available for sale.

Watching this event, which occurred in four distinct waves, was like observing a crowd on Black Friday or a scene from The Matrix — frenzied and surging powerfully. In real time, the digital auction block, which included some 2,000 online members spread across the globe, lapped up these NFTs as if their lives depended on it. Days before the auction, after some background research, I was amazed at how seriously members of the ZED Community of owners take this business, and it is just that — a community. There are You Tube videos, several DIY blogs, and a slew of tips on how to maximize the “maintenance” of your digital horse.

Currently, most of the site and the sport is geared towards racing. It is mesmerizing. Go to the main page, and you will see what I am talking about. Designed around a “straight racecourse,” events give the viewer the chance to watch a series of 24/7 races of varying distances, “grades,” and purses. If you own a horse you can pay a fee to “enter” you horse in one of these races and win money. Large fields of runners assemble, and the design reminds one of something futuristic out of the movie The Tron. That is probably because Atari, who is still around, assisted with the overall design.

Speaking of classes, the platform has four major bloodlines that run through the original horses that make up the game. Like Darley, Godolphin, and Byerly Turk, the original three Thoroughbreds, likewise ZED Run has original bloodlines too. Named for famous “crypto” legends, their numbers run from rare to more common, and include: Nakamodo, Szabo, Finney, and Buterin. Breeding fees exist, and with dams able to produce two foals per month, sires have the ability to yield seven in the same time. Thus, a Nakamoto is more difficult to obtain since there are not many of them out of the 38,000, and conversely, a Buterin is pretty much standard.

If you do not want to wait for the next “drop” on the website, then you can go over to a place called OpenSea and look at their stock. This is a popular NFT “eBay” type of place, that has received attention from investors like Dallas Mavericks owner Mark Cuban, who has sung its praises. This is where you can buy almost anything — including ZED digital racehorses. Just like the Saratoga and Keeneland Sales, anything goes with these auctions, and you will see some exorbitant prices.

I am both flabbergasted and slightly unnerved by ZED Run, and the power which it commands. There is also something very exhilarating about watching complexity unfold. Years ago, at places like Dave and Busters and in other old school arcades, you probably saw or even played “horse racing video games.” If you owned a PlayStation or Xbox, you might have enjoyed building a stable, and racing horses within the confines of your own home. But these experiences pale in comparison to what ZED Run is attempting to harness. This feels like something decidedly different. The fact that “money,” whether it is the all-mighty dollar is involved, begs the question of where this all ends up. How does Thoroughbred racing in the real world compete with digital horse racing in the virtual?

We might think this e-sport business is on the fringe, that it could not touch something as expansive and centrally located as international horse racing. But there is a part of that reasoning that is specious, and rather short-sighted. After all, as we speak, gaming companies and their divisions are capitalizing and are in the process of collecting new subscribers. Those lists, like streaming services, have blossomed over this past year. Their ascendancy is not to be taken for granted. If you don't believe me, look no further than ZED Run. In just minutes, their digital products flew off the shelves because not only are you courting gaming, but the skill of ownership can lead to earning money. Even Thoroughbred racetracks continue to set records when it comes to their handles. They are still plagued with issues that are being massively underestimated by the “industry.” Namely, how do you seize the attention of the next generation of horse owners, players, and workers? Blockchains and NFTs, and their derivatives, appear to have a future, and how the sport responds to their rise will be a central question of the greatest importance.

I am agog by watching the mechanisms built into ZED Run. We saw some “national” digital horse racing events last year under COVID-19, like the “all-time” Kentucky Derby in the U.S., and the Grand National in the U.K. Yet, the look and feel of the ZED website evokes a powerful warning to those who make a living in this business. I shudder to think what this will become in the future. Are we ready to combat its growth, as animal rights, centralization, drug usage, takeouts, and attendance continue to be pressing issues? I am issuing a ZED Run warning — Own? Race? Earn? Sounds pretty inviting to Millennials, who might not be interested in learning to read the latest PPs because their complexity and payoffs are an utter mystery. Don't say I didn't warn you, Thoroughbred world.

Still, there is an utter sadness in this commentary; I hope I am woefully wrong. The sights and sounds of the racetrack can never be truly replaced by a digital horse racing game. Living virtually does not sound like much of a future to me.

J.N. Campbell is a turfwriter based in Houston.

The post Campbell: Future Talk — Digital Horse Racing With ZED Run? appeared first on Horse Racing News | Paulick Report.

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The Week in Review: Breeding & Selling the Million-Dollar Racehorse That Doesn’t Exist

There's an adage in poker playing that says if you take a look around the card table and can't tell who the sucker in the game is, it's you.

There's also an old saw about never investing in any business transaction you don't fully understand or can't explain to someone else (or yourself) in fewer than 30 seconds.

Nevertheless, the cryptocurrency-styled racehorse trading spree rages on at Zed Run, the online global marketplace that went live in 2018 and has since sold 11,000 “Thoroughbreds” that exist only as digital assets on the Ethereum blockchain as non-fungible tokens (NFTs).

According to a May 12 New York Times article by Taylor Lorenz, one trader reportedly flipped a single “horse” that initially cost $16,000 on Zed Run for $125,000. Another sold an entire stable for $252,000 when demand skyrocketed for that particular collection of “limited drop” offspring. A third touted the thrill of being able to churn a “crazy return on investment,” and predicted that prices on individual digital equine assets could soon surge into the million-dollar range, matching–and at times far exceeding–the auction prices of real-life Thoroughbreds.

“This is either going to be the smartest or stupidest thing I've ever done,” one Miami-based Zed Run enthusiast who has amassed 48 horses told the Times. “I'll either buy a house with the money I make from it or never show my face for a year.”

The Australia-founded Zed Run has been thriving in recent weeks. Or it at least has the appearance of thriving, because, as with any rapidly emerging market–crypto, traditional, or otherwise–you never truly know who is driving or profiting from the stampede. This is especially true when highly hyped trading is based on assets that have no tangible underlying value outside of their specific marketplace.

I spent a good chunk of the weekend trying to get my head around Zed Run's core concept (“to create an ecosystem where collectible digital assets hold value and have use in an exciting and ever-evolving gaming and wagering environment”). I read through the company's work-in-progress website and absorbed varying outside opinions on it that ranged from “next big thing” to warnings about the platform being a pyramid-styled investment vehicle that could be rewarding early adopters at the expense of late-to-the-party participants who might have to bear the costs of any collapse.

My opinion? Although there are enough waving red flags surrounding Zed Run to keep my digital wallet fully sealed, I must admit to being drawn in by how the platform is completely unlike any other digital horse racing endeavor to date. Even though Zed Run conducts virtual races 24/7, it is not so much focused on the actual racing, per se. It doesn't even have a pick-the-winners or betting component (yet).

Rather, its entire structure is based on trying to replicate–and capitalize from–an ever-changing, real-time digital bloodstock marketplace.

Assets that take the form of NFTs have been popping up in the news with increasing frequency. On May 20, David Stevenson of the Financial Times in London described the complicated concept of an NFT as “a certificate of authenticity held on the blockchain, a digital ledger of transactions that cannot be hacked. These tokens may refer both to an actual item, such as an artwork, as well as its authentication. Cut through the jargon and they are just a piece of code with specific functionality and a unique identifier.”

In essence, the buying and selling of NFTs is closely linked to our society's infatuation with ownership and property rights. On Apr. 29, Sophie Haigney described that idea in the New York Times, detailing how someone recently paid more than $69 million at auction to “own” an NFT-derived JPG image that anyone else could freely download on the internet. Someone else bought a “digital house” that can be owned, but not actually lived in for $500,000. A conceptual artist created a specific shade of blue, stored it digitally, then sold it for $800.

Yet another New York Times story on May 13 described how National Basketball Association players are investing in and trading proprietary, NFT-backed video highlight collections. Some players have become so obsessed with the concept that on-court trash talk now involves barbs about how much spectacular dunks and blocks will be worth as crypto-collectible clips.

Earlier this month, The Stronach Group launched an NFT series of GI Preakness S. souvenirs that David Wilson, the company's chief marketing officer, said would “offer our consumers some really rare value.” The collection consisted of 18 different Preakness-related NFTs, 14 of which were video recordings of past races, plus four “special edition” NFT offerings that were paired with real physical assets and experiences, like VIP tickets to next year's Preakness or a replica of the Woodlawn Vase.

Zed Run pushes beyond the memorabilia mindset, but the company underscores on its site that “Zed is NOT a cryptocurrency. Zeds are digital racehorses which can be viewed as a digital asset on the Ethereum blockchain using ERC-721 NFTs.”

That description of a digital racehorse might seem fairly dry and sterile, so Zed Run attempts to infuse some life into the idea of NFT ownership wherever it can by pointing out that you can “nurture your racehorse and create an everlasting legacy” within what is repeatedly termed as the “ecosystem” on the Zed Run platform. “We are hellbent on creating an emotional connection with your digital asset,” a note from the founders explains.

Zed Run also refers to its digital racehorses as “breathing” NFTs, which is meant to refer to the fact that you can actually do something with the investment, like race the non-existent equines for purses and prestige that will purportedly add to their digital breeding value. The race outcomes are derived from algorithms, as are the results of the NFT matings. But nowhere on the Zed Run site could I find an explanation of exactly who or what controls those algorithms, and nothing in the documentation suggests that these blockchain transactions are being monitored or overseen by any regulatory agency here in the United States.

Zed Run's site states that the firm takes a 10% cut of all transactions on the platform, “which may vary from time to time without notice as per Zed's Terms.” It also charges a “small” (exact amount not disclosed) “gas fee,” which Zed Run explains is the standard blockchain term for processing and executing the “smart contracts” that underpin each transaction.

Supply and demand drive any marketplace, and in this respect Zed Run is no different. There are four primary “bloodlines” that exist within the Zed universe, and they can be thought of as the digital equivalent of our three real-life Thoroughbred foundation sires. As the site explains, “each bloodline contains differing levels of rarity and characteristics unique to that racehorse.”

Zed Run plans to initially make available, via periodic releases, a total supply of 38,000 “Genesis racehorses.” Think of this as the first foal crop. You can either buy individual horses via the platform when they “drop” as a batch (in previous drops, some of these could initially be had for under $100), or purchase them on a secondary marketplace, quite likely at a higher price.

“However, players can choose to breed their racehorses, thereby creating more unique racehorses,” the site explains, laying the groundwork for what Zed Run hopes will be many future generations of digital Thoroughbreds. But as of the writing of this column Sunday, the breeding section of the site was down for maintenance.

“There are two main criteria to look for when purchasing a racehorse in Zed; bloodline and genotype,” the site continues. “The rarer your bloodline is and the closer your racehorse is to its ancestors, the more desirable it will be for breeding and the better it will perform on the racetrack…”

Once enough races are in the database, past performances will be a key factor, and there are already virtual bloodstock analysts popping up within the Zed community to offer assessments on the value of horses. These digital horses are also prized for the unique names owners bestow upon them, and as the site explains, “color plays an important aspect in terms of the collectability nature of racehorses in Zed.”

In fact, the coat color of a Zed Run horse–they appear in races as riderless, luminescent, computer-generated equines running on an elevated straightaway against the futuristic nighttime backdrop of a city skyline–is a main driver of digital breeding considerations. The Holy Grail is to produce what is termed as a “super rare” coat color in an offspring that could translate to big bucks in resale value.

Unless you happen to be holding that horse of a different color in your digital stable just when the bottom drops out of the Zed Run market.

“A Zed racehorse belongs to the user, just like your house, car or boat belongs to you,” the platform's tutorial explains. “No one can take it away from you. And just like in real life, the value of your Zed racehorses is determined by the market and what other people or users are willing to pay for it.”

The post The Week in Review: Breeding & Selling the Million-Dollar Racehorse That Doesn’t Exist appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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Todd Pletcher Talks Derby Contenders On Writers’ Room

At one point this spring, it was conceivable that soon-to-be Hall of Fame trainer Todd Pletcher would be faced with the unusual situation of not having a GI Kentucky Derby starter. Things change quickly in racing though, as now the seven-time Eclipse Award winner is likely to have four horses in the gate in Louisville and Wednesday morning, he joined the TDN Writers' Room presented by Keeneland to talk about his sudden Derby quartet. Calling in via Zoom as the Green Group Guest of the Week, Pletcher also talked about what still motivates him to train, his early opinions on the Derby field and the progress racing has made on safety since his last appearance on the show following the 2019 Breeders' Cup.

Regarding his one-two finishers in Saturday's GII Wood Memorial S., 72-1 Bourbonic (Bernardini) and 15-1 Dynamic One (Union Rags), Pletcher said, “In Bourbonic's case, it was what I would describe as a pleasant surprise. He's a horse that's always trained well and we did think getting around two turns and up to a mile and an eighth was going to be to his benefit. I'd be lying if I said we expected him to win. The strategy was, let's let him fall back, make one run. He should get the distance and hopefully [be] picking up the pieces at the end, which he definitely was. I can't tell you I had a $40 win ticket on it.

“In Dynamic One's case, we were expecting him to run well. We've been a little disappointed in what he's done so far because he's always trained liked a good horse. I think he's still learning how to run and finish off a race. He got a little bit lost by himself [in the stretch of the Wood]. I think Bourbonic surprised him a bit. But that type of performance is what we've been seeing from him in the mornings to indicate he's of that quality.”

As for GI Curlin Florida Derby winner Known Agenda, likely to be the shortest price of the Pletcher four, he said, “He's a Curlin. He's bred to be better a little later. What surprised us about him was he was able to be competitive in his debut at 6 1/2 furlongs. Off that one race, he was able to beat Greatest Honour at a mile and an eighth, and they were 20 lengths clear of the third horse. In the Remsen, he was still green and was stuck inside on a sloppy track. Once he got clear late, he put in a good final sixteenth. He left himself too much to do. Same thing in the Sam Davis. So I think the blinkers have made a difference. The exciting thing about the group that we have is, I think they're all horses that are going to improve at a mile and a quarter. They're all horses that are truly looking for that distance.”

When Pletcher was last on the podcast, he spoke bluntly about the catastrophic situation racing found itself in after the spate of fatal breakdowns at Santa Anita. Wednesday, he was asked what progress he's seen since then in the sport and what still needs to be done.

“One breakdown is too many, but we also live in the real world where those things happen,” he said. “I think we've made a lot of improvements. The statistics are showing that the numbers are down. Like I said then, it's not a trainer thing, it's not a jockey thing, it's not a track veterinarian thing. It's an industry thing. We have to do better from the ground up. From the time these horses are born, to the way they're prepped for sales, the way they're treated the whole way. It's everyone's responsibility. Ultimately, it comes down to trainers making the decisions at entry time and race time. I think the industry has recognized as a whole that we all have to do better. That's why I think we're making improvements and hopefully are not going to rest on our laurels of doing better. We've got to keep getting better.”

Elsewhere on the show, the writers reacted to a huge weekend of racing, analyzed the prospective Derby picture and, in the West Point Thoroughbreds news segment, reported on an NFT-based virtual racing game that is rapidly growing in popularity. Click here to watch the podcast; click here for the audio-only version.

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