Tag: Zandon

In Due Time Seeks to Land on Derby Bubble in Lexington

It's last call for many in Keeneland's GIII Stonestreet Lexington S. as the race to solidify, or sneak into, the GI Kentucky Derby starting gate enters the final furlong. In Due Time (Not This Time) heads this field with an ever-improving resume in both distance and class. A debut winner in the mud at Monmouth last summer, the chestnut was shelved for six months, resurfacing with a third in a Gulfstream optional claimer Jan. 8. A dominant optional claimer winner next out when extended to a mile in Hallandale Feb. 4, good for a 92 Beyer Speed Figure, he was a strong second behind Simplification (Not This Time) in the GII Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth S. last out Mar. 5. In Due Time currently sits in 29th on the Derby leaderboard with 20 points and he could secure 20 more with a win here, which would put him right on the bubble for a spot in the Derby starting gate.

One who races to keep his spot as number 20 on the leaderboard is the hard-trying Tawny Port (Pioneerof the Nile), who is one of five runners with 40 points. A win here will jump the colt into 12th with 60. Opening his account with a pair of wins on the Turfway synthetic, Tawny Port closed to be fifth in his first try on dirt in the GII Risen Star S. at Fair Grounds Feb. 19, which was one by Derby points leader Epicenter (Not This Time). Second to Tiz the Bomb (Hit It a Bomb) last out Apr. 2 in the GIII Jeff Ruby Steaks S. back on the synthetic at Turfway Park, Tawny Port will try to overcome a two-week turnaround as the 5-2 morning line favorite.

The formidable WinStar and Siena Farm partnership will send out two in hopes of landing points and a spot on the bubble: Major General (Constitution) and Strava (Into Mischief), who is also owner in partnership with Denny Crum. A $420,000 KEESEP buy, Major General followed a first-out score with a win in the GIII Iroquois S. at Churchill in September. He adds blinkers for this event after a non-factor 10th in the GII Tampa Bay Derby Mar. 12. Also adding blinkers here, $825,000 KEENOV purchase Strava captured his debut sprinting at Keeneland in October and was second next out in the slop at Fair Grounds Jan. 15. Extended to two turns in NOLA a month later, the bay checked in third behind recent GI Arkansas Derby victor Cyberknife (Gun Runner).

D. Wayne Lukas saddles Ethereal Road (Quality Road), who is back in just a week after a tired seventh-place effort Apr. 9 in the local GI Toyota Blue Grass S.

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This Side Up: Run to Win, Not Win to Run

(Listen to this story by clicking the play button below.)

We live in a world where change is routinely mistaken for progress, draped in the cheap frills of “modernization”–a word that needs treating with extreme suspicion, implying as it does that any who challenge innovation are obstructing our species in some otherwise inexorable journey to fulfilment.

Nobody can sensibly deny that a great deal of change has indeed been for the better. Few who honor her memory at Keeneland on Saturday, I'm sure, would like to have been with Jenny Wiley in her pioneer cabin, that bloody day in 1789. But nor should we ever be vapidly impulsive in our stewardship of the Thoroughbred, that beautiful time capsule for generations of toil and reflection by stockmen whose lore has long faded from all other record.

In my homeland of England, they actually have ended up having to use heritage as a substitute for decent purses. Even in that environment, however, vigilance is constantly required against well-intentioned but crass unstitching of the pageant.

On both sides of the water, admittedly, we must tolerate such pragmatic change as will preserve what has become known as “the social license” to persist in our way of life, in an era when a largely urban world can grossly amplify its misapprehensions on social media.

That's a context we can't afford to neglect in any of the scandals, actual or perceived, that undermine our claims to scrupulous regard for equine welfare. At one end of the spectrum, you may this week have glimpsed some nightmarish images from the Quarter Horse world. Be in no doubt, however: we absolutely invite outsiders to place us on the same continuum even in what too many people in our community consider our marginal complicities–when indulging the alchemy apparently practised in certain barns, for instance, or arguably when harnessing ideological lobbies to litigate against meaningful regulation.

And I do feel that some of the decisions we make as breeders show inadequate consideration for the breed's long-term welfare. Everyone talks a good game about turf stallions, for instance, but they won't actually give them commercial oxygen. And the odds are stacked even against dirt stallions if perceived as “slow burners”, whether in terms of maturity or stamina.

With far too many horses brought into the world to walk, not run, I recently took the tragic cue of Get Stormy's loss to celebrate the exemplary approach of Crestwood, where the roster majors in competitive longevity, often combined with turf acceleration and/or an aristocratic maternal line. But the suspicion must be that a family farm, with relatively limited resources, can only have created this heroic niche in the Bluegrass because of market contempt for precisely those assets that would best sustain the breed.

Thankfully Crestwood is not alone in understanding how the viability of our sport depends on the physical competence of the model we hand over to the next generation. Few grasp this more ardently than Airdrie–where Divisidero, for instance, built five campaigns on a maternal line extending to Cosmah herself; and Preservationist, who pairs up the King Ranch icons Courtly Dee and Too Chic, must somehow get people to see past the fact that he was six when he broke two minutes in the GII Suburban.

That pair will need a lot of far-sighted support to emulate the breakout of their buddy Upstart, who–multiple Grade I-placed at two, three and four, and tracing to a Federico Tesio champion–has genuine prospects, with only his second crop, of a first Kentucky Derby-Oaks double since Native Dancer.

Whatever happens at Churchill, Upstart has done something pretty phenomenal just to put himself in this position as a $10,000 start-up. Remember this is the 50th anniversary of Airdrie's foundation; and also that Zandon's first three dams were all mated in support of resident stallions. Typically of this farm, moreover, the family traces to a great matriarch in Boudoir II (GB), whose foals included the dam of Flower Bowl, granddam of Majestic Prince and sire of Kelso. Any neutral whose Derby pick will be determined by a due sense of heritage and class, then, will have had goosebumps watching Zandon put it all together in his hometown trial last weekend.

Now it's true that Zandon has himself participated in radical change; in a process, indeed, that many trainers would doubtless hail as “modernization”. Having been so lightly campaigned, by the standards of the past, last week he needed things to go right just to reserve himself a Derby gate.

It's a world away from 1941, when Whirlaway (seven-for-16 at two) was beaten in a Blue Grass nine days before the Derby, and again in the Churchill Derby Trial five days later, only to convert that sharpening into an eight-length win in the first leg of his Triple Crown. On its nine-day turnaround the Blue Grass produced the Derby winner nine times in 14 runnings from 1959. In 1990, however, it was pushed back to three weeks before the Derby, and in 2015 to four. That leaves the GIII Stonestreet Lexington S. as the last chance saloon for those still needing gate points and, despite its relative proximity to the Derby, as the ultimate example of how trials have become treated principally as a means to get into the race, rather than actually to win it.

Lexington contender Ethereal Road with D. Wayne Lukas | Coady

Except that maybe D. Wayne Lukas is trying to do both, in backing up Ethereal Road (Quality Road) a week after the Blue Grass–where patience seems finally to have been exhausted with his jockey, now replaced both here and on Secret Oath (Arrogate) in the Oaks.

Remember how Lukas brought a son of Summer Squall to this race in 1999, a couple of weeks after he'd made some late ground into fourth of eight as an outsider in the GI Santa Anita Derby? Charismatic had needed six attempts to win a maiden, and both his wins had come under a tag, but all that groundwork suddenly came together in the Lexington. And 13 days later he went into the Derby–with 12 more races under his belt than will Taiba (Gun Runner)!

The only rule, with Thoroughbreds, is that there are no rules. If Taiba can win off that prep, then I will have to acknowledge myself not just a traditionalist but a culpable reactionary. Actually, as we've indicated already, there is one immutable rule: that whatever we do with these horses, their welfare comes first. But if they are not being “proved”, the way they once were, then I don't know that anyone gains.

If trainers don't trust the resilience of the genetic material they're being given, then that's a poor reflection on the breeders of today. And equally it's no help to the breeders of tomorrow if stock perfectly equal to a tougher schedule never gets a chance to demonstrate those wares. So, no, not all change is good–any more than all change is bad.

The post This Side Up: Run to Win, Not Win to Run appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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TDN Kentucky Derby Top 20 For Apr. 12

All the nine-furlong preps for the GI Kentucky Derby are in the books, but Saturday's GIII Lexington S. still offers 20 points to the winner, so there could be some shakeout in the bottom tier of the Top 20. The rankings below are independent from the “Road to the Derby” points leaderboard Churchill Downs uses to determine starting berths. Access that list here.

 1) ZANDON (c, Upstart–Memories Prevail, by Creative Cause)
O-Jeff Drown. B-Brereton C. Jones (KY). T-Chad C. Brown. Sales History: $170,000 ylg '20 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GISW, 4-2-1-1, $713,000. Last Start: 1st GI Toyota Blue Grass S., KEE, Apr. 9. Next Start: GI Kentucky Derby, CD, May 7. KY Derby Points: 114.

This beautifully balanced, nearly black colt vaulted to No. 1 based on his assertive, last-to-first score in the GI Toyota Blue Grass S. at Keeneland. Although still light in terms of having just four races, it wouldn't be a stretch to say this $170,000 KEESEP son of Upstart has packed an outsized share of “street smarts” experience into his preps, which include the unusual sequence of three consecutive nine-furlong stakes. He was into the bit, but not anxious through the first turn of the Blue Grass, and jockey Flavien Prat allowed Zandon to drift back to last by the half-mile pole while hemmed in by also-rans. Still well behind three-eighths out, Zandon clicked into “chase” mode with an outside bid and quickly had the first flight within his sights. Prat then had to make a quick positioning decision that put Zandon back down toward the rail, yet that path tightened up at the head of the lane. Zandon boldly shouldered his way back outside three-sixteenths from home, then took dead aim on favorite and 'TDN Rising Star' Smile Happy (Runhappy) before swatting away that rival with purpose en route to a 98 Beyer Speed Figure score. We'll let this well-earned victory sink in, but in next week's rankings, we'll dissect whether Zandon's recent switch to off-the-pace closing is a tactical disadvantage in a race like the Derby, which has had a speed-centric winning profile for most of the past decade.

2) EPICENTER (c, Not This Time–Silent Candy, by Candy Ride {Arg}) O-Winchell Thoroughbreds LLC. B-Westwind Farms (KY). T-Steven M. Asmussen. Sales History: $260,000 ylg '20 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: MGSW, 6-4-1-0, $1,010,639. Last Start: 1st GII Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby. Next Start: GI Kentucky Derby. KY Derby Points: 164.

I spent a good chunk of Sunday and Monday flip-flopping the top two in these rankings before finally settling on Zandon at No. 1 and Epicenter at No. 2. Although Epicenter has the preferred pace-centric running style that matches more favorably with the last eight Derby winners, and he has also compiled the broader, stronger base of overall work, Zandon's against-adversity Blue Grass win was delivered with an intimidating panache that suggests he's capable of ratcheting up the level of competition beyond what Epicenter has experienced through most of his New Orleans campaign. Yes, this $260,000 KEESEP colt by Not This Time did beat Zandon in their lone head-to-head showdown in the GII Risen Star S., but Epicenter coasted home on the front end while Zandon was compromised by a bad break; some 2 1/2 months between that matchup and Derby day could result in a different outcome. Still, enough intangibles remain in Epicenter's favor: he fires off fraction after fraction of up-tempo splits, fights back when challenged in the stretch, and has galloped out with authority in victories at nine furlongs and 1 3/16 miles.

3) MO DONEGAL (c, Uncle Mo–Callingmissbrown, by Pulpit)
O-Donegal Racing. B-Ashview Farm & Colts Neck Stables (KY). T-Todd A. Pletcher. Sales History: $250,000 ylg '20 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: MGSW, 5-3-0-2, $621,800. Last Start: 1st GII Wood Memorial S., AQU, Apr. 9. Next Start: GI Kentucky Derby. KY Derby Points: 112.

Mo Donegal is capable of sitting back and uncorking one sustained bid, like he did from 4 1/2 furlongs out when winning Saturday's GII Wood Memorial S. But rather than blowing by the field with one big, swooping move like a lot of closers, he smolders with sustained intensity and coerces rivals into submission with relentless late-race focus. This $250,000 KEESEP colt by Uncle Mo has twice accelerated through final furlongs timed in exactly :12.33 in 1 1/8-mile races, with those GII Remsen S. and Wood wins representing the fastest closing eighths at that distance among all 2021-22 preps. Despite that obvious plus, it appears as if Mo Donegal will be un-partnering with jockey Joel Rosario. Dave Grening of DRF reported Sunday that Irad Ortiz, Jr., will likely regain the mount (he's been aboard three times previously) because Rosario is expected to remain tethered to Epicenter.

4) SIMPLIFICATION (c, Not This Time–Simply Confection, by Candy Ride {Arg}) O-Tami Bobo. B-France & Irwin Weiner (FL). T-Antonio Sano. Sales History: $50,000 wlg '19 KEENOV. Lifetime Record: GSW & GISP, 7-3-1-2, $515,350. Last Start: 3rd GI Curlin Florida Derby. Next Start: GI Kentucky Derby. KY Derby Points: 74.

It might appear as if Simplification regressed a touch when third and failing to deliver as the fave in the Florida Derby. Don't buy into that line of reasoning. The farther the Florida Derby gets in his rear-view mirror, the more potential there is for Simplification to head to Louisville as a “wiseguy” horse perceived as capable of doing damage in the 15-1 range. He's an energetic stalker who attended an honest pace and was prompted to crack the main speed in that Grade I try at Gulfstream, but engaging so soon (4 1/2 furlongs out) only resulted in Simplification getting hooked into a mid-race melee that continued through an unsustainable tempo. When confronted by a fresh challenge from the eventual winner, Simplification didn't come unglued, and he stayed on commendably without being hammered on. Every race he's run at a mile or longer has resulted in a 90+ Beyer, and there appears to be a firm enough foundation for an improved effort May 7.

5) EARLY VOTING (c, Gun Runner–Amour d'Ete, by Tiznow)
O-Klaravich Stables, Inc. B-Three Chimneys Farm, LLC (KY). T-Chad C. Brown. Sales History: $200,000 ylg '20 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW, 3-2-1-0, $321,500. Last Start: 2nd GII Wood Memorial S. Next Start: TBD. KY Derby Points: 50.

Had Early Voting been on the winning side of the neck photo in the Wood Memorial, he'd likely be ranked within the top three contenders. But this $200,000 KEESEP colt is still an intriguing work-in-progress who'll go off in the 12-1 range in the Derby, and if you liked him before Saturday's near-miss, what you saw should embolden you to consider this Chad Brown trainee a very legitimate pace presence in Louisville. When favored Morello (Classic Empire) hit the gate at the break and couldn't effectively pressure Early Voting, Jose Ortiz didn't let this colt dawdle on the lead. Early Voting's high cruising gear enabled him to rattle off consecutive quarters of :23.86, :23.89, :23.84 and :24.04, and he held well against the more experienced Mo Donegal in a deep-stretch grind-down without being tapped dry. Poke around in his pedigree and you'll find more reasons than not to like him at 10 furlongs.

6) SMILE HAPPY (c, Runhappy–Pleasant Smile, by Pleasant Tap) 'TDN Rising Star' O-Lucky Seven Stable. B-Moreau Bloodstock Int'l Inc. & White Bloodstock LLC (KY). T-Kenneth G. McPeek. Sales History: $175,000 wlg '19 KEENOV; $185,000 ylg '20 FTKSEL. Lifetime Record: GSW & GISP,
4-2-2-0, $549,810. Last Start: 2nd GI Toyota Blue Grass S. KY Derby Points: 70.

'TDN Rising Star' Smile Happy got hooked five and three wide on the turns as the beaten fave in the Blue Grass S. while pressing a moderate tempo from post 10 over a heavy-ish, drying-out track. This  powerful son of Runhappy ($175,000 KEENOV; $185,000 FTKSEL) got first run on the wilting pacemaker at the quarter pole and led until the furlong marker while offering only token resistance to Zandon. While the effort wasn't poor, it didn't put an exclamation point on his two sophomore preps, which were both runner-up tries that lacked the true spark of his open-lengths juvenile victories. You have to go back to Super Saver in 2010 to find any horse who crossed the finish wire first in the Derby who did not win a sophomore race prior to the first Saturday in May.

7) TIZ THE BOMB (c, Hit It a Bomb–Tiz the Key, by Tiznow) O-Magdalena Racing, Lessee. B-Spendthrift Farm LLC (KY). T-Kenneth McPeek. Sales History: $330,000 Ylg '20 FTKSEL. Lifetime Record: MGSW, 8-5-1-0, $1,044,401. Last Start: 1st GIII Jeff Ruby Steaks, TP, Apr. 2. Next Start: GI Kentucky Derby. KY Derby Points: 110.

Over the next four weeks, you can expect talk about Tiz the Bomb to be dominated by the “Will he handle dirt?” question. That's the commanding narrative, but it probably isn't as crucial an angle as Derby prognosticators will make it out to be. Sure, it's natural to ask that question considering this $330,000 FTKSEL colt by Hit It a Bomb is a two-time stakes winner on both Tapeta and grass (while also finishing second in the GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf). But both of his dirt races–a gaudy 14 1/4-length MSW win at Ellis Park and a 20 1/4-length drubbing in the GIII Holy Bull S. at Gulfstream–are too aberrational to use as a measuring stick for what will happen when the dirt flies in the Derby. Let's face it: every year there are plenty of otherwise-capable dirt horses who can't tolerate the crowding and jamming in the Derby's notorious traffic. At least with Tiz the Bomb, we know he can confidently negotiate a crowd, because his five best races came in fields of 10, 12, 12, 13 and 14. Ignore him at your own pari-mutuel peril.

8) CHARGE IT (c, Tapit–I'll Take Charge, by Indian Charlie) 'TDN Rising Star' O/B-Whisper Hill Farm (KY). T-Todd A. Pletcher. Lifetime Record: GISP, 3-1-1-0, $230,400. Last Start: 2nd GI Curlin Florida Derby. Next Start: GI Kentucky Derby. KY Derby Points: 40.

Lightly raced 'TDN Rising Star' Charge It, a Whisper Hill Farm homebred by Tapit, closed gamely enough in the Florida Derby to make it difficult to pass up the once-in-a-lifetime opportunity that the Derby offers. Did Charge It falter when running greenly through the stretch and failing to seal the deal despite several chances when second in that prep? Absolutely. But most horses making their third lifetime starts don't have a winning edge honed at that stage of their careers, and for Charge It, you have to consider he was making his two-turn debut and first try against winners in a Grade I stakes at the demanding distance of nine furlongs. Even though he's gray, he's a definite dark horse for Louisville.

9) TAIBA (c, Gun Runner–Needmore Flattery, by Flatter)
'TDN Rising Star' O-Zedan Racing Stables Inc. B-Bruce C Ryan (KY). T-Tim Yakteen. Sales History: $140,000 Ylg '20 FTKOCT; $1,700,000 2yo '21 FTFMAR. Lifetime Record: GISW, 2-2-0-0, $490,200. Last Start: 1st GI Runhappy Santa Anita Derby, SA, Apr. 9. Next Start: GI Kentucky Derby.

Taiba, who will turn three on Apr. 13, is this year's out-of-nowhere party crasher who burst onto the Derby scene with a 103-Beyer MSW win Mar. 5 followed by an unlikely takedown of the GI Santa Anita Derby in start number two. This 'TDN Rising Star' stacked up three across the track through the first turn behind the two favorites on Saturday, then Mike Smith backed him off through quarter-mile segments in :23.23, :23.43 and :24.27. When highly regarded stablemate Messier (Empire Maker) cracked Forbidden Kingdom (American Pharoah) at the quarter pole, Taiba was into the bridle and almost immediately alongside at the head of the stretch. Messier initially kicked away, but this Gun Runner colt wouldn't quit, and even though Messier was shortening stride in the run to the wire (fourth quarter in :25.04 and final eighth in :12.70), Taiba kept on extending fluidly, driving clear to win by 2 1/4 lengths (102 Beyer). He'll be getting tossed into the very deep end of the Derby pool with only two lifetime starts to his name. But Taiba could be capable of making a bigger splash than conventional wisdom suggests.

10) MESSIER (c, Empire Maker–Checkered Past, by Smart Strike) 'TDN Rising Star' O-SF Racing LLC, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables LLC, Robert E. Masterson,
Jay A. Schoenfarber, Waves Edge Capital LLC, Catherine M. Donovan, Golconda Stable & Siena Farm LLC. B-Sam-Son Farm (ON). T-Tim Yakteen. Sales History: $470,000 ylg '20 FTKSEL. Lifetime Record: GSW & GISP, 6-3-3-0, $435,600. Last Start: 2nd GI Runhappy Santa Anita Derby. Next Start: GI Kentucky Derby. KY Derby Points: 40.

'TDN Rising Star' Messier's record of three wins and three seconds from six starts looks strong on paper. But from a visual standpoint, his failure to slam the door when races were his for the taking in both the GII Los Alamitos Futurity and the Santa Anita Derby is troubling. Which son of Empire Maker ($470,000 FTKSEL) will show up at Churchill? The one who blew out the GIII Lewis S. field by 15 lengths with a 103 Beyer or the one who got manhandled by a just-graduated maiden in the Santa Anita Derby? Messier's connections have stressed all campaign long that he's a robust, well-balanced athlete with the mental prowess to match. But we've seen only glimpses of that in the afternoons, and he's never faced more than five rivals in a race while winning only once around two turns.

11) BARBER ROAD (c, Race Day–Encounter, by Southern Image) O-WSS Racing, LLC. B-Susan Forrester & Judy Curry (KY). T-John Alexander Ortiz. Sales History: $15,000 wlg '19 KEENOV. Lifetime Record: GISP, 8-2-3-1, $650,720. Last Start: 2nd GI Arkansas Derby. Next Start: GI Kentucky Derby. KY Derby Points: 58.

It's too early to start formulating Derby betting strategies, but Barber Road has started to loom on my periphery as an “uh-oh” contender who could derail Derby exotics. He'll go off in the 60-1 range and doesn't project to be an obvious win threat. But he has the pedigree to handle 10 furlongs (via grandsires Tapit and Southern Image), knows how to kick late, and shows a willingness to bull his way through trouble. He has an eight-race foundation and two good showings at Churchill (a 6 1/4-length win and a second, beaten half a length), yet Barber Road figures to be completely off the radar of the general public because of subpar speed figures (best Beyer 88) and having gone nearly a half-year (since Nov. 10) without winning.

12) WHITE ABARRIO (c, Race Day–Catching Diamonds, by Into Mischief) O-C2 Racing Stable LLC & La Milagrosa Stable, LLC. B-Spendthrift Farm LLC (KY). T-Saffie A. Joseph, Jr. Sales History: $7,500 ylg '20 OBSWIN; $40,000 2yo '21 OBSMAR. Lifetime Record: GISW, 5-4-0-1, $823,650. Last Start: 1st GI Curlin Florida Derby. Next Start: GI Kentucky Derby. KY Derby Points: 112.

You could make a case for the scrappy, athletic White Abarrio based on his overachieving style relative to his $7,500 OBSWIN and $40,000 OBSMAR auction pricing. You might also foresee a scenario in which this Race Day gray's nimble way of going and tactical speed afford him an advantage in the chaotic, 20-horse scramble for Derby positioning. But you also have to legitimately wonder if White Abarrio peaked in the Florida Derby, and if the combination of that 96-Beyer victory and this colt's having spiked a fever in the week leading up to that race took more out of him than might seem evident. Did you know that 33 consecutive grays have gone to post and lost the Derby since the last gray, Giacomo, roared home at 50-1 in 2005?

Potentially rounding out the starting gate…

13) Zozos (Munnings): A decent small-sample body of work for this 'TDN Rising Star', whose 40 qualifying points based on finishing second behind Epicenter in the Louisiana Derby currently rank 17th on the cutoff list. He was on his left lead through the stretch of his MSW win, unleashed a deft turn of foot at the quarter pole of his allowance victory, then led for as long as he could through the long Fair Grounds stretch over 1 3/16 miles before Epicenter picked him off in the Louisiana Derby. Homebred for Barry and Joni Butzow has a 70-92-98 Beyer pattern, but the overall grade is “incomplete” based on just three starts compacted into two months of racing experience and now a six-week gap into the Derby.

14) Morello (Classic Empire): He has the points to get into the Derby, but his connections are going to wait to see how he trains at Churchill before making a commitment. Morello ($140,000 KEENOV; $200,000 FTKSEL; $250,000 EASMAY) took enough money to go off as the undefeated favorite in the Wood Memorial, but his two-turn debut got derailed before it even started when he slammed the side of the gate at the break.

15) Crown Pride (Jpn) (Reach the Crown {Jpn}): He's 3-for-4 on dirt with all three victories at nine furlongs or greater and a trouble-line excuse for his sixth-place try when only beaten 3 1/2 lengths. Got solidly bumped at the break of the G2 UAE Derby then uncoiled with a long drive on his incorrect lead in deep stretch to reel in the pacemaker on a track that was favorable to speed.

16) In Due Time (Not This Time): Three-time sales grad ($9,500 KEENOV; $35,000 KEESEP; $95,000 OBSAPR) will try for both a confidence-building and points-garnering boost in Saturday's GIII Lexington S. at Keeneland. That final qualifying stakes on the Derby prep schedule awards 20 points to the winner, and a victory would put this colt at 40 points, which is the current cutoff mark to get into the Derby (defections and some earnings tiebreakers will change things over the next 3 1/2 weeks).

17) Summer Is Tomorrow (Summer Front): This late supplement to the Triple Crown and three-time auction entrant ($25,000 KEENOV; $14,000 RNA at KEESEP; $169,743 ARQDEA) has a 2-3-0 record from seven starts in Dubai, and he showed a willingness to forge to the front in the UAE Derby. He got collared in the final strides, but was not drubbed in defeat and his ability to engage over 1 3/16 miles stands him in good stead for a crack at 10 furlongs in Louisville. But realistically, you'd have to bank on him running the race of his life while a number of highly heralded contenders falter in order to envision this colt wearing a blanket of roses come May 7.

18) Cyberknife (Gun Runner): Prior to winning the GI Arkansas Derby, trainer Brad Cox described Cyberknife as a “tough horse to deal with-he always has been.” That may be an understatement. This $400,000 FTKSEL colt was DQ'd in his first start, veered through the stretch in start number two, got caught wide on both bends in his stakes debut, dropped his jockey in the post parade of the Arkansas Derby, then weaved home erratically while other contenders found trouble behind him. But he's starting to win races at the right time of year, and Cyberknife has now paired 87 and 92 Beyer scores since Cox removed blinkers. His damsire, Flower Alley, was also a late bloomer who won the 10-furlong GI Travers S. in 2005 and was beaten only a length at that same distance in that year's GI Breeders' Cup Classic.

19) Un Ojo (Laoban): Every Kentucky Derby needs an against-all-odds longshot to spice up the story line, and this gelding certainly qualifies with his 75-1 rain-soaked shocker in the GII Rebel S. But this son of Laoban lacks sight in his left eye (he lost it in an accident as a yearling, and Un Ojo means “one eye” in Spanish), and considering the ordeal he endured in the Arkansas Derby, you have to wonder if negotiating a crowded 20-horse field is going to be a dicey proposition for him. “He was sawed-off and bounced off the fence twice,” trainer Ricky Courville told the BloodHorse last week, adding that Un Ojo required surgical staples to close flesh wounds on his blind-side shoulder. “He kept hitting the rail and Ramon [Vazquez] had to check him out of there and he said the horse panicked and tried to jump the fence,… He's had some stiffness and we'll give him some time to get over it, We're still going to the Kentucky Derby so far.”

20) Slow Down Andy (Nyquist): When winning with blinkers on in the GIII Sunland Derby, Slow Down Andy withstood legit pace pressure as the 6-5 favorite, which was a plus. But the blinkers were supposed to add focus to his stretch runs, which have been erratic in the past, with the Los Alamitos Futurity a prime example. But Slow Down Andy again took to shifting and drifting in that weak-on-paper New Mexico stakes, this time while swishing his tail late in the lane. Right now the most favorable Derby angle for Slow Down Andy is rooted in history: his sire won the 2016 Derby, and this homebred was owned and trained by these same connections (Reddam Racing and Doug O'Neill).

The post TDN Kentucky Derby Top 20 For Apr. 12 appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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Final Derby Preps Yield Pair of Aces, Tantalizing Wild Card

The Week in Review by T. D. Thornton

This past Saturday's last-chance trio of nine-furlong preps for the GI Kentucky Derby unfolded like a tense card game that came down to the crucial final draw. Some decent hands had already been dealt over the course of the long season, but we still needed to see the last three cards from the deck to get a handle on how intriguing and entertaining this year's Run for the Roses would turn out to be.

That final turn revealed, in succession: An ace. An ace. And a tantalizing wild card that nobody saw coming.

Mo Donegal (Uncle Mo)'s deft, sustained run from last to snatch victory in the final jump of the GII Wood Memorial S. at Aqueduct established him as one of the Derby favorites.

But when Zandon (Upstart) one-upped that performance 24 minutes later at Keeneland with his own relentless, adversity-overcoming charge from far back to win the GI Toyota Blue Grass S., it set up one of the most fascinating Derby rivalries in recent memory.

That's because we now get the juicy first-Saturday-in-May rematch of the top two colts from last December's “fighting finish” in the GII Remsen S., in which Mo Donegal outmuscled Zandon (barely) by a nose in a roughly run race that made national headlines for the stewards' non-disqualification of the winner.

Our sport is often stuck in the “Racing needs a superstar” mentality. But horse vs. horse grudge matches? I say bring 'em on. They really are the more fascinating allure.

Still, if you're the type of fan who latches onto sky's-the-limit, undefeated prospects, the racing gods had one more card to toss your way Saturday.

Thirty-seven minutes after the two Eastern races yielded aesthetically satisfying results, the GI Runhappy Santa Anita Derby delivered the unexpected gift of 'TDN Rising Star' Taiba (Gun Runner), who crashed the Kentucky Derby party by mowing down two highly-heralded speedsters, sparking a late-to-the-party journey to Louisville with an audacious two-for-two record amid an aura of revenge.

Although you won't see Churchill Downs promoting this storyline, the most riveting subplot over the next four weeks will involve Taiba's owner, Amr Zedan, who won the Derby last year with longshot Medina Spirit, a rags-to-riches $1,000 yearling. Medina Spirit died suddenly after a December workout, and he was subsequently disqualified from his Derby win for a betamethasone overage, a penalty that Zedan is currently appealing.

Last week, Zedan insisted (reportedly against the advice of his trainer, according to DRF's Jay Privman) that Taiba–who sold for $1.7 million as a juvenile–be entered in the Santa Anita Derby even though the colt had just broken his maiden Mar. 5.

Taiba's largely unforeseen win on Saturday now gives Zedan a shot at righting what he perceives as a Derby wrong. Even Zedan's choice of a name for this prized colt underscores his mission: Roughly translated from Arabic, Taiba means “one who is clean” or “one who refrains from evil.”

So which prep was strongest?

Story arcs aside, make no mistake that Zandon ran the most visually appealing 'Wow!' race that sets him up as the likely favorite for the Derby.

Zandon asserted himself midpack through the first turn of the Blue Grass, exuding confident body language while into the bit and hemmed in by horses through the tightly-packed first turn.

The pace was moderate (first three quarters in :24.04, :24.35 and :24.33), yet Flavien Prat allowed Zandon to drift back to last by the half-mile pole. Over the course of the next furlong, Zandon found himself pocketed while still bringing up the rear, yet Prat never panicked when guiding his colt to the outside to start picking off stragglers on the far turn.

Zandon split horses while gaining on the first flight, and Prat made the dicey decision to drop back inside at the head of the lane. He was walled up and had to punch his way to the outside three-sixteenths from home, and after an unfazed Zandon shouldered aside a tiring rival, he had dead aim on well-regarded favorite and 'TDN Rising Star' Smile Happy (Runhappy).

Zandon kicked home with purpose through a last quarter in :25.14 and a final eighth in a respectable :12.49, his tied tongue flapping loose in the chilly breeze while 2 1/4 lengths clear of the competition. The final time was 1:50.35 over a drying-out track labeled good (98 Beyer Speed Figure).

In the Wood Memorial, Mo Donegal's off-the-pace task was made tougher when favored Morello (Classic Empire) hit the gate at the break and couldn't effectively pressure the speedy Early Voting (Gun Runner), whose high cruising gear enabled him to post consecutive quarters in :23.86, :23.89, :23.84 and :24.04.

Mo Donegal, from last, began a methodical march 4 1/2 furlongs out and quickened his cadence at the three-furlong pole before jockey Joel Rosario gambled on tight inside passage off the turn for home. The still-strong Early Voting wasn't about to opt out of this fight however, and when Rosario switched outside at the eighth pole two lengths in arrears, it looked as if he had left Mo with too much work to do.

Yet Mo Donegal closed the gap incrementally, prevailing by a neck while always intently focused. As he's demonstrated in previous efforts, this is the sort of colt who is unlikely to unleash a storming stretch run that propels him to a big-margin victory. But he knows where the wire is and what his job is, and always has something left for the later stages.

Mo Donegal's 1:47.69 winning time over the “fast” track translated to a 98 Beyer. But here's the more important number out of that race: Mo Donegal has now won two nine-furlong races that featured identical final eighths in :12.33.

Of all the 1 1/8-miles preps we've seen in 2021-22, those are the two fastest clockings for that final fraction.

Meanwhile, on the Left Coast…

The Santa Anita Derby was supposed to be a figurative match race between 'TDN Rising Star' Messier (Empire Maker) and the blitzing early gunner Forbidden Kingdom (American Pharoah).

Apparently, someone forgot to tell this to Taiba and jockey Mike Smith.

Taiba was keen in the early stages and stacked up three across the track through the first turn with the aforementioned two favorites. The pecking order sorted itself out on the back straight with Forbidden Kingdom making the pace, Messier stalking menacingly, and Taiba taking it all in from third through splits of :23.23, :23.43 and :24.27.

Messier prolonged his inevitable cracking of Forbidden Kingdom through the far turn before wresting command at the quarter pole. But Taiba was also primed to pounce at that juncture, and Messier initially repulsed his stablemate's bid in upper stretch.
In an effort that belied his relative inexperience, Taiba dug in and came again, and even though Messier was noticeably shortening stride in the run to the wire (fourth quarter in :25.04 and final eighth in :12.70), Taiba kept on extending fluidly, driving clear over the “fast” dirt to win by 2 1/4 lengths in 1:48.67 (101 Beyer).

Taiba will be up against all sorts of historical norms by forging ahead to the Kentucky Derby off just two lifetime starts. Since 1937 (the advent of detailed start statistics), only four horses have ever even attempted the Derby in career start number three: China Visit (sixth in 2000), Disposal (18th in 1992), Senecas Coin (DNF in 1949) and Perfect Bahram (ninth in 1946). In addition, Bert G. ran 14th in 1945 off just one previous lifetime outing.

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