Zandon | Horse Racing Free Tips

TDN Kentucky Derby Top 20 for Apr. 26

These rankings are in “likeliest winner” order, and they are different from the points leaderboard Churchill Downs uses to determine starting berths. Access that list here. The GI Kentucky Derby can have a field of 20 with four also-eligibles.

1) ZANDON (c, Upstart–Memories Prevail, by Creative Cause) O-Jeff Drown. B-Brereton C. Jones (KY). T-Chad C. Brown. Sales History: $170,000 ylg '20 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GISW, 4-2-1-1, $713,000. Last Start: 1st GI Toyota Blue Grass S., KEE, Apr. 9. KY Derby Points: 114.

Right after the final nine-furlong preps were complete, I felt certain bettors would gravitate toward Zandon (Upstart) rather than Epicenter (Not This Time) as the Derby favorite. Now I'm not so sure. My rationale was that the wagering public tends to be all over visually impressive horses who win in dramatic fashion, especially if the effort is fresh in the public's mind (recency bias). Although that scenario describes this athletic $170,000 KEESEP colt's narrative, the price on the more seasoned Epicenter is likely to be skewed downward by the annual betting/hedging endeavor by furniture magnate Jim “Mattress Mack” McIngvale, who has pledged to plunk down between $3 and 4 million on this year's Derby favorite.

Last year in a similar promotion, McIngvale was responsible for 25% of the win pool on the (losing) Derby favorite, and it is plausible that his own series of bets are what will make the difference in establishing which of the even-matched colts goes off as the chalk. Writing for Horse Racing Nation, Travis Stone, the Churchill Downs announcer (who has experience as a respected morning-line oddsmaker), summed it up like this: “It's hard to imagine someone being a market mover in the biggest pools of the year, but [McIngvale] is. So given the Mack factor, I believe Epicenter must be lowered to 3-1 [favoritism]. I was tempted to go 5-2, the same odds that Essential Quality closed at last year, but the competitiveness of Epicenter's main rivals caused hesitation.” That's good news if you like Zandon–it presents the rare opportunity to back the most likely Derby winner at odds a touch above his true chances of winning.

2) EPICENTER (c, Not This Time–Silent Candy, by Candy Ride {Arg}) O-Winchell Thoroughbreds LLC. B-Westwind Farms (KY). T-Steven M. Asmussen. Sales History: $260,000 ylg '20 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: MGSW, 6-4-1-0, $1,010,639. Last Start: 1st GII Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby. KY Derby Points: 164.

Epicenter has only lost once within the past six months, and that January defeat in the GIII Lecomte S. foretold quite a bit about his even-keeled character and understatedly powerful makeup. He forced the issue on the front end, swatted back a wall of horses at the top of the lane, repulsed a prolonged bid from the favorite through the length of the Fair Grounds stretch, then got nailed the wire by a fresh 28-1 shot before quickly surging back in front several jumps after the finish.

In two subsequent Grade II starts over increasing distances, this $260,000 KEESEP colt by Not This Time has fine-tuned the flow of his races, showing he is confident controlling the tempo without necessarily needing the lead. His ability to be a focused, committed presence through fast splits while still having plenty left to fight off challengers late is something no other horse on this list has mastered over such a broad body of work.

But at what price are you willing to find out if Epicenter's consistency holds true in the 20-horse Derby? As discussed in Zandon's write-up above, the potential exists for the favorite's odds to be pari-mutuelly depressed. So the question of bettability could come down to whether you will accept 3-1 odds on a horse who more realistically figures to be a 5-1 proposition.

3) MO DONEGAL (c, Uncle Mo–Callingmissbrown, by Pulpit) O-Donegal Racing. B-Ashview Farm & Colts Neck Stables (KY). T-Todd A. Pletcher. Sales History: $250,000 ylg '20 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: MGSW, 5-3-0-2, $621,800. Last Start: 1st GII Wood Memorial S., AQU, Apr. 9. KY Derby Points: 112.

Your opinion on Mo Donegal ($250,000 KEESEP) in the Derby might come down to whether you think he's the type of horse who routinely “finds” trouble or if he's just consistently unlucky and always seems to be needing to extricate himself from disadvantageous positioning. The truth is probably a little bit of both. And to his credit, this Uncle Mo colt does have a knack for snatching victory from the jaws of defeat. Irad Ortiz, Jr. will be back in the irons for the Derby (after Joel Rosario opted to stick with Epicenter). Jerry Crawford of Donegal Racing told Jennie Rees in a Kentucky HBPA video interview that that partnership will be a big plus in a crowded field.

“Obviously, you've got to be worried about traffic. I'm thrilled that we have Irad,” he said. “If anybody can find a couple of seams, which we'll need to be successful, I think Irad's the person. We've had a lot of 'freight-train' horses–Arklow for example–where you couldn't afford to let the horse get stopped. This horse is a little more athletic; a little more agile. We saw that in the [GII] Wood [Memorial S.], where he went in and he came out pretty effortlessly without losing any momentum. That's an important asset, too, I think, in the Derby.”

4) SMILE HAPPY (c, Runhappy–Pleasant Smile, by Pleasant Tap) 'TDN Rising Star' O-Lucky Seven Stable. B-Moreau Bloodstock Int'l Inc. & White Bloodstock LLC (KY). T-Kenneth G. McPeek. Sales History: $175,000 wlg '19 KEENOV; $185,000 ylg '20 FTKSEL. Lifetime Record: GSW & GISP, 4-2-2-0, $549,810. Last Start: 2nd GI Toyota Blue Grass S. KY Derby Points: 70.

Smile Happy's stock has tailed off a bit, but I sense he's going emerge as a “wiseguy” horse as we get closer to Derby day. As a juvenile he was 2-for-2 with a pair of eye-catching far-turn moves to mow down the competition, and this 'TDN Rising Star' was rated No. 1 on this list back in early February. But when this son of Runhappy ($175,000 KEENOV; $185,000 FTKSEL) waited too long when trying to rate off the pace behind Epicenter in the GII Risen Star S., and then got tired on the lead when Zandon ran him down in the deep stretch GI Blue Grass S., it took a little shine off his status.

The fact that Smile Happy hasn't won in five months doesn't seem to ruffle trainer Kenny McPeek, who has consistently underscored that he wants a Derby contender who will also be fresh for the GI Preakness S., too. Smile Happy closed at 8-1 odds in each of the first three Kentucky Derby Future Wager pools, then at 6-1 in Pool 4 and 9-1 in Pool 5. His overall chances haven't been too badly blemished. But now it's likely he'll go off at 12-1 or better in the Derby itself, significantly higher than how bettors projected his chances through the winter and spring.

5) TIZ THE BOMB (c, Hit It a Bomb–Tiz the Key, by Tiznow) O-Magdalena Racing, Lessee. B-Spendthrift Farm LLC (KY). T-Kenneth McPeek. Sales History: $330,000 Ylg '20 FTKSEL. Lifetime Record: MGSW & GISP, 8-5-1-0, $1,044,401. Last Start: 1st GIII Jeff Ruby Steaks, TP, Apr. 2. KY Derby Points: 110.

This $330,000 FTKSEL colt by Hit It a Bomb could be the juiciest overlay in this year's Derby. While the handicapping world grapples with whether or not he'll adapt to dirt based on one poor showing off a three-month layoff at Gulfstream, I'll take my chances that Tiz the Bomb will, at the very least, outrun inflated odds based on his portfolio of eight races, proven ability to negotiate large fields, and versatility in running style. He's won stakes in fields numbering 10, 12 (twice) and 14 horses, and he's scored on the lead, stalking, and rating from well back. Trainer Kenny McPeek has said he wants Tiz the Bomb closer to the pace in the Derby in an effort to avoid traffic. I won't try to make the case that he's as dominant as some of the proven dirt contenders–that's not the case. But the price on this Grade II grass and Grade III Tapeta winner is likely to drift upward relatively unchecked by the betting public.

6) SIMPLIFICATION (c, Not This Time–Simply Confection, by Candy Ride {Arg}) O-Tami Bobo. B-France & Irwin Weiner (FL). T-Antonio Sano. Sales History: $50,000 wlg '19 KEENOV. Lifetime Record: GSW & GISP, 7-3-1-2, $515,350. Last Start: 3rd GI Curlin Florida Derby. KY Derby Points: 74.

If you had the foresight to bet Not This Time in the Derby Sire Future Wager that closed way back on Thanksgiving weekend, you're now holding a 23-1 ticket that gets you both the likely starting fave, Epicenter, and the well-regarded Simplification. Both were just MSW winners at the time of that bet. Although he finished third in the GI Curlin Florida Derby, this colt ($50,000 RNA at KEENOV) ran a losing race that resonates better than the efforts of the two rivals who beat him, chiefly because Simplification got embroiled in two separate speed skirmishes that he won at the expense of losing the overall battle. He has five 90+ Beyer performances, and the only two races that Simplification didn't attain that number were in his career debut and in a Nov. 13 sprint in which he bashed his head on the starting gate and required surgical staples to close the wound. Jose Ortiz will retain the mount on Simplification in the Derby, having made the commitment last week even though he starting status of Ortiz's other possible Derby mount, Early Voting, is still in limbo.

7) MESSIER (c, Empire Maker–Checkered Past, by Smart Strike) 'TDN Rising Star' O-SF Racing LLC, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables LLC, Robert E. Masterson, Jay A. Schoenfarber, Waves Edge Capital LLC, Catherine M. Donovan, Golconda Stable & Siena Farm LLC. B-Sam-Son Farm (ON). T-Tim Yakteen. Sales History: $470,000 ylg '20 FTKSEL. Lifetime Record: GSW & GISP, 6-3-3-0, $435,600. Last Start: 2nd GI Runhappy Santa Anita Derby. KY Derby Points: 40.

Although Messier has been trained by Tim Yakteen for the past month, the Derby foundation for this 'TDN Rising Star' was laid down by now-suspended trainer Bob Baffert. And there was something different about how Messier was aimed for the Apr. 9 GI Runhappy Santa Anita Derby that is worth considering in light of his slightly disappointing second-place effort.

Baffert has won a record nine Santa Anita Derbies. But every one of those winning horses made his last start in March, making Messier's attempt off an eight-week break an anomaly for a Baffert-prepared sophomore. Through the prism of that out-of-the-ordinary angle, you can make the case that this $470,000 FTKSEL colt actually ran pretty well considering he was likely not wound too tightly for that Apr. 9 prep. Yes, he still lost to a just-graduated maiden stablemate. But Messier vied with the favored pacemaker and hung in for most of the stretch run when challenged anew. As preps go, that effort is now becoming more likeable the farther away it gets in the rear-view mirror.

8) EARLY VOTING (c, Gun Runner–Amour d'Ete, by Tiznow) O-Klaravich Stables, Inc. B-Three Chimneys Farm, LLC (KY). T-Chad C. Brown. Sales History: $200,000 ylg '20 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW, 3-2-1-0, $321,500. Last Start: 2nd GII Wood Memorial S. KY Derby Points: 50.

Early Voting remains the highest-ranked contender whose connections have yet to fully commit to a start in the Derby. This $200,000 KEESEP colt projects to be a part of the Derby pace, and his Wood Memorial near-miss was notable for holding well against the more experienced Mo Donegal after setting a spirited tempo. He's 2-for-3 with only a neck loss to the No. 3 horse on this list, and his ascending Beyer pattern (76, 87, 96) allows for room to improve based on a pedigree that suggests 10 furlongs is within his grasp.

9) BARBER ROAD (c, Race Day–Encounter, by Southern Image) O-WSS Racing, LLC. B-Susan Forrester & Judy Curry (KY). T-John Alexander Ortiz. Sales History: $15,000 wlg '19 KEENOV. Lifetime Record: GISP, 8-2-3-1, $650,720. Last Start: 2nd GI Arkansas Derby. KY Derby Points: 58.

A number of Derby-aspiring horse owners have unrealistic expectations. Bill Simon, who bought this Race Day gray for a bargain $15,000 as a KEENOV weanling, isn't among them. “I know a lot of people say that it's been their dream,” to win the Derby, Simon told TDN's Katie Petrunyak last week. “It honestly wasn't a dream for us because we never imagined that we could do it.”

Barber Road nearly always outruns his odds despite routinely encountering trip trouble, or losing a shoe like he did when second in the GI Arkansas Derby.

“He could have won any one of those,” Simon said. “More importantly, he thinks he won every time because he gallops out ahead in every single race so he comes back all happy. Through all his works and races, he's never been tired… I don't know what's going to happen, but I can promise that at the end of the race he's going to be running as hard as he can and he'll be moving forward.”

10) CHARGE IT (c, Tapit–I'll Take Charge, by Indian Charlie) 'TDN Rising Star' O/B-Whisper Hill Farm (KY). T-Todd A. Pletcher. Lifetime Record: GISP, 3-1-1-0, $230,400. Last Start: 2nd GI Curlin Florida Derby. KY Derby Points: 40.

This Whisper Hill Farm homebred by Tapit earned 'TDN Rising Star' honors in his mile MSW win, then ran a very credible second despite some greenness through the lane in the Florida Derby. But it's still a big ask for this colt to step up against far more seasoned competition over 10 furlongs in the Kentucky Derby, and a bet on Charge It pulling off the upset rides strictly on what you guess he might be capable of delivering, as opposed to anything concrete in his three-race past-performance block. Trainer Todd Pletcher has cited Charge It's good disposition, the fact that he's training well, and his impeccable breeding to cover a distance of ground as positives heading toward May 7.

11) TAIBA (c, Gun Runner–Needmore Flattery, by Flatter) 'TDN Rising Star' O-Zedan Racing Stables Inc. B-Bruce C Ryan (KY). T-Tim Yakteen. Sales History: $140,000 Ylg '20 FTKOCT; $1,700,000 2yo '21 FTFMAR. Lifetime Record: GISW, 2-2-0-0, $490,200. Last Start: 1st GI Runhappy Santa Anita Derby, SA, Apr. 9. KY Derby Points: 100.

Daily Racing Form's Jay Privman broke the news over the weekend that Taiba will have only one published workout between his Runhappy Santa Anita Derby win and the Kentucky Derby, with “strong gallops” instead comprising the bulk of his training. It's yet another against-the-grain angle as this 'TDN Rising Star' attempts to defy convention by winning the first leg of the Triple Crown off of two blistering triple-digit Beyer wins in a career arc that dates only to Mar. 5.

Taiba benefitted from his stablemate Messier doing the dirty work to crack the pacemaker in the Santa Anita Derby, but this son of Gun Runner ($140,000 FTKOCT; $1.7 million FTFMAR) was very much into the bridle and relentless in his pursuit of that more seasoned rival the entire length of the stretch. Too much hype and not enough experience? Probably. But the wild-card nature of Taiba's meteoric rise will be one of the most compelling story lines in this year's Derby.

12) WHITE ABARRIO (c, Race Day–Catching Diamonds, by Into Mischief) O-C2 Racing Stable LLC & La Milagrosa Stable, LLC. B-Spendthrift Farm LLC (KY). T-Saffie A. Joseph, Jr. Sales History: $7,500 ylg '20 OBSWIN; $40,000 2yo '21 OBSMAR. Lifetime Record: GISW, 5-4-0-1, $823,650. Last Start: 1st GI Curlin Florida Derby. KY Derby Points: 112.

This Race Day gray ($7,500 OBSWIN; $40,000 OBSMAR) has only lost once from four starts. He enjoyed clear sailing in his two graded stakes scores over his home court at Gulfstream, racking up 97 (GIII Holy Bull S.) and 96 Beyers (Florida Derby). He was also third in the most meaningful juvenile prep race from last autumn (GII Kentucky Jockey Club S.). A legit concern is the tepid final furlong from the Florida Derby. The :14.09 clocking was the second-slowest final eighth among all nine-furlong preps in 2021-22, and White Abarrio won't be afforded a similarly lethargic late-race stretch run in the Kentucky Derby.

13) Zozos (Munnings): Zozos hasn't gotten out much in the afternoons (just three races). But he keeps good company. The runner-up and third-place horse from his Jan. 23 MSW score both won their next starts. His Feb. 11 allowance victory yielded a next-out winner among the also-rans. And the stakes debut of this 'TDN Rising Star' in the GII Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby equated to a decent second-place showing behind Epicenter. But his relative inexperience, six weeks between starts, and sprint-slanted pedigree might be too much for Zozos to overcome at 10 furlongs.

Zozos | Coady Photo

14) Classic Causeway (Giant's Causeway): Three weeks after an inexplicably poor last-place showing in the Florida Derby in which this former No. 1-ranked colt faltered badly on the front end, trainer Brian Lynch on Monday declared Classic Causeway back in the Derby, citing a desire to “put a line through that race” and “roll the dice.” This homebred for Kentucky West Racing and Clarke Cooper had previously wired both the GIII Davis S. and the GII Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby, but earned soft Beyers in each (88 for the Davis, and his original 84 for the Tampa Derby has since been readjusted to an 86). “I looked for every excuse not to run him in there after he threw craps at the Gulfstream race,” Lynch told Horse Racing Nation. “I've got two old boys between them with 160 years of living. Their dream has been to run in the Kentucky Derby. I argued and tried to make a case for not running. After watching him work the other day and seeing how he had come out of it, I guess the horse deserves a chance to run.”

15) Crown Pride (Jpn) (Reach the Crown {Jpn}): Christophe Lemaire has been dominant riding in Japan since switching his tack there full-time five years ago, and he'll partner with the Japan-based GII UAE Derby victor in Louisville for the first time. He figures to seek a stalking trip, and Crown Pride has more experience than most Stateside horses in negotiating sizable fields. Japan-based horses have gone 0-for-3 in the Derby; winners of the UAE Derby are 0-for-11.

16) Tawny Port (Pioneerof the Nile): Can you name the only horse ever to parlay wins in the GIII Lexington S. and Kentucky Derby? That would be Charismatic. He was 31-1 when he won the 1999 Derby, and this $430,000 KEESEP colt will likely go off higher than that when he attempts the same feat this year. But long Derby odds are nothing new for owner Peachtree Stable, whose colors were carried by Invisible Ink to a 55-1 second in the 2001 Derby. Tawny Port is a little light speed figures-wise, having earned a 90 Beyer only once from three Tapeta tries and a pair of dirt races that clocked in at 86 and 89.

17) Cyberknife (Gun Runner): This high-energy $400,000 FTKSEL colt won his qualifying points against a subpar group in the Arkansas Derby by barreling through the pack and swerving through the lane. Cyberknife's overall body of work and career-best 92 Beyer don't leap off the past-performance page screaming, “Bet me!” But he's improving at the right time, and maturity might add some swagger and polish to his reputation as a hard-to-handle horse.

18) Un Ojo (Laoban): This gelding is parked pretty far down the likely to win list. But the reality is Un Ojo should be able to drop back, save ground, and start picking off stragglers who are spent by the far turn. Exactly how many horses this one-eyed New York-bred ends up passing is what's up for debate. Un Ojo would need to run the race of his life while a slew of better credentialed contenders all fail to fire in order to end up draped in a blanket of roses. That's not very plausible based on his past performances–but it's exactly how perceived no-hopers Mine That Bird and Giacomo orchestrated 50-1 upsets in 2009 and 2005.

19) Summer Is Tomorrow (Summer Front): He's fast, but can he last? Late Triple Crown supplement and three-time auction entrant ($25,000 KEENOV; $14,000 RNA at KEESEP; $169,743 ARQDEA) led for as long as he could in the G2 UAE Derby. But this six-time sprinter will have to deal with markedly ramped-up early pressure at Churchill with multiple waves of closers coming from behind. Mickael Barzalona will again be aboard in Louisville.

20) Happy Jack (Oxbow): Pie-in-the-sky longshots have always been a part of Derby lore. In this qualifying-points era, a colt like Happy Jack gets in on the basis of a distant third in a short-field Grade I stakes. An RNA at KEENOV, this colt won sprinting at first asking at 24-1 odds while racing on Lasix and has been beaten an aggregate 49 1/2 lengths in three subsequent non-Lasix stakes routes.

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Share in Upstart Offered at Keeneland April

Officials at Keeneland announced it will offer a share in Upstart (r, 10, Flatter-Party Silks, by Touch Gold), sire of leading classic prospects GISW Zandon and MGSW Kathleen O. in his second crop, at its April Horses of Racing Age Sale, to be held following the races on closing day Friday, Apr. 29 . The share will be the final offering of the sale. Shareholder involvement will begin with the 2023 breeding season.

Upstart, who stands at Airdrie Stud in Midway, Kentucky, is a graded stakes-winner who earned $1.7 million. Other notable progeny includes 'TDN Rising Star' Green Up, a 3-year-old filly with two wins and a second in three career starts, including a four length allowance victory at Gulfstream Apr. 21; MGISP and 'TDN Rising Star' Reinvestment Risk, a 4-year-old colt who was second in the recent GI Carter H.; and Masqueparade, winner of the 2021 GIII Ohio Derby.

“What Upstart is doing right now is really pretty incredible,” Airdrie Stud Vice President Bret Jones said. “Zandon and Kathleen O. are the headliners, but there's so much depth in each of those first two crops. Reinvestment Risk, Green Up and Masqueparade all look poised for breakout seasons, and Upstart's 2-year-olds have averaged over $300,000 at the juvenile sales this year. He throws beautiful sales horses that can handle their early training and get better with racing. And he's shown the ability to sire not only quality horses, but elite horses. He's on that climb right now that the really top sires all make.”

The winning bidder will have the right to offer to purchase the share for the hammer price subject to a 24-hour post-auction inspection period during which the winning bidder may review all applicable documentation. The winning bidder may only purchase the share upon satisfactory review by the parties and the satisfaction or waiver of any applicable rights of first refusal or other restrictions under the syndicate agreement. Interested parties should contact Bret Jones or Ben Henley at Airdrie Stud at (859) 873-7270 for additional information regarding the share, or to inspect the stallion.

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Classic Hopefuls Turn It Up a Notch

With two weeks remaining until the first weekend of May, several chief protagonists for the GI Kentucky Derby and GI Longines Kentucky Oaks turned in some key breezes in Kentucky and California.

Jeff Drown's Zandon (Upstart), who cemented his spot in the Derby field with an eye-catching victory in the GI Toyota Blue Grass S. at Keeneland Apr. 9, has remained in Lexington to train up to the big race and went a half-mile in :48.60 (see below). The $170,000 Keeneland September graduate covered his opening furlong in :12.80, then gradually picked up speed through subsequent splits of :25.20 and :37 flat, with trainer Chad Brown and big-race rider Flavien Prat observing from the grandstand. Zandon galloped out five furlongs in 1:00.80, three-quarters of a mile in 1:13.80 and was up seven panels in 1:27.80.

“He was moving super; just what we wanted to see,” Brown said. “We just wanted to maintain where he is. He does not have to get any fitter. I was impressed with how he galloped out.”

Zandon is scheduled to ship to Churchill Sunday morning and will have his final Derby drill next Saturday.

WATCH: Zandon breezes a half-mile at Keeneland

Among those working beneath the Twin Spires Saturday was Blue Grass runner-up and 'TDN Rising Star' Smile Happy (Runhappy), who worked five furlongs in the company of his GIII Jeff Ruby Steaks-winning stable companion Tiz the Bomb (Hit It a Bomb). Smile Happy, whose docket includes a second-out victory in Churchill's GII Kentucky Jockey Club S., began the work about one length ahead of Brian Hernandez, Jr. and Tiz the Bomb (1:00.20), who moved to the outside of Smile Happy (1:00.40) and finished on even terms.

“We were just looking for an easy move today and we got that,” trainer Kenny McPeek said. “We'll probably do the same thing again next week.”

A day after stablemate and 'TDN Rising Star' Zozos (Munnings) sizzled six furlongs in 1:12.40, Gold Square's GI Arkansas Derby hero Cyberknife (Gun Runner) followed suit Saturday morning. Working at 5:15 a.m. with Florent Geroux at the controls, the Gold Square colorbearer went the same distance a tick quicker, then galloped out an extra furlong in :12.40, according to noted Churchill clocker John Nichols. Geroux also breezed Zozos on Friday, but retains the call on Cyberknife for the Derby.

“It was a really strong move and he's a really good work horse,” Geroux said. “He continues to improve as time goes on and he showed that winning the Arkansas Derby. Even going back to his allowance win before the Arkansas Derby he showed a new level of class.”

WATCH: Brad Cox discusses Cyberknife's work with Jennie Rees

The one-eyed Un Ojo (Laoban) was also out for a serious move Saturday morning at Churchill, working five furlongs in :59.40 for trainer Ricky Courville in splits of :11.60, :23, :35 and :47.60 before galloping out six panels in 1:12.20.

“It's amazing being here at Churchill Downs,” said Courville's son Clay. “I've been here before but nothing like this. [Un Ojo] is getting over the track really well.”

At Santa Anita Saturday morning, 'TDN Rising Star' Messier (Empire Maker) went five furlongs in :59.80 for trainer Tim Yakteen, galloping out six furlongs in 1:12 and change, per a tweet from the ownership group's Tom Ryan. The Ontario-bred works again next Friday before shipping to Kentucky.

Expected to work Sunday are the Steve Asmussen duo of GII Louisiana Derby winner Epicenter (Not This Time) and Echo Zulu (Gun Runner), each among the favorites for the Derby and Oaks, respectively.

MESSIER cruised 59.8 with @DraydenV in hand this morning, galloped out 6f in 1:12, and change. @timyakteen was delighted with the move. He's come out of the @santaanitapark Derby in great shape; the plan is to work next Friday again before he ships to @ChurchillDowns #Messier pic.twitter.com/TlziVd5vWQ

— Tom Ryan. (@TomRyanKY) April 23, 2022

Kathleen O. Leads Oaks Workers…

Winngate Stables' Kathleen O. (Upstart), undefeated winner of the GII Gulfstream Park Oaks and also among the top fancies for the GI Longines Kentucky Oaks, prepped for that engagement Saturday at Keeneland, breezing a measured half-mile in :48.80 (see below) for her Hall of Fame conditioner Shug McGaughey.

“She picked it up and galloped out strong,” said assistant trainer Anthony Hamilton. “We are in good shape. She's a happy horse–that's what you look for.”

Kathleen O. ships across to Churchill Monday or Tuesday, according to Hamilton.

Candy Raid (Candy Ride {Arg}), upset winner of the Bourbonette Oaks at Turfway Park Apr. 2, went four furlongs in :49.20 (video) with Rafael Bejarano in the irons.

“This was her last work here,” said Bejarano, who rode Candy Raid for the first time in the victory at Turfway. “She's feeling good. I got her out five-eighths in 1:02 and change.”

Candy Raid is scheduled to ship to Churchill on Thursday and have her final pre-Oaks work there.

Oaks workers at Churchill included GIII Pocahontas S. winner Hidden Connection (Connect, 5f in 1:00.60); GIII Gazelle S. victress Nostalgic (Medaglia d'Oro, 4f, :48.80); and Busher S. romper and Gazelle runner-up Venti Valentine (Firing Line, 4f, :47.40).

WATCH: Kathleen O. breezes towards the Oaks at Keeneland

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The TDN Kentucky Derby Top 20 for April 19

With all the points-earning preps completed, the GI Kentucky Derby picture moves into “microscope mode” as we approach the two-week mark. The rankings below are independent from the “Road to the Derby” leaderboard Churchill Downs uses to determine starting berths. Access that list here.

Zandon won sprinting at first asking while never more than two lengths off a rapid tempo. Stretched to nine furlongs in the GII Remsen S., he stalked the pace and was in it to win it right down to the final jump. Then he started rallying from farther back. This $170,000 KEESEP colt broke in the air, got relegated to last, then accelerated widest on the far turn when third in the GII Risen Star S. His GI Blue Grass S. score was accomplished via meticulous last-to-first handling by Flavien Prat. So which running style will Zandon deploy on Derby day? Handicappers considering backing (or betting against) him will want to know, especially in light of the fact that the last eight Derbies have been won by horses either on the lead or not far from it. It's easy to fall in love with closers because of the dramatic nature of their runs. But if you marveled at Prat's deft outside-inside-outside maneuvering through the far turn and upper stretch of the Blue Grass, you can also envision how that same strategy might result in getting boxed or blocked in the heavy traffic of a 20-horse field. That's why speed is so effective in the Derby. The very nature of out-front positioning affords those horses the advantage of leaving chaos behind-where deep closers are more likely to encounter it.

Epicenter will have a tactical edge over Zandon on Derby day because he's a more proven commodity who has shown over a larger sample of races that he can consistently attain optimal positioning. This $260,000 KEESEP colt by Not This Time doesn't need to lead the cavalry charge into the first turn. But he does figure to be forcing the issue, and the fact that he's been the leader at the eighth pole in every one of his races (except his maiden sprint debut) suggests he's highly likely to be 1-2-3 turning for home. But you have to wonder if history will be Epicenter's friend as he tries to gut out that final quarter mile. A six-week break between a final prep and the Derby has only yielded two winners on the first Saturday in May since 1929, and only two horses since the 1894 inception of the GII Louisiana Derby have also crossed the finish wire first in the Kentucky Derby. Trainer Steve Asmussen, despite his many accomplishments, is 0-for-23 in the Derby. But that unappealing stat is largely based on his having started so many “just taking a shot” horses over the past two decades who weren't true contenders. Outside of Gun Runner (third in 2016) and Curlin (third in 2007), there are no A-list luminaries among Asmussen's mostly forgettable list of Derby also-rans.

3) MO DONEGAL (c, Uncle Mo–Callingmissbrown, by Pulpit) O-Donegal Racing. B-Ashview Farm & Colts Neck Stables (KY).
T-Todd A. Pletcher. Sales History: $250,000 ylg '20 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: MGSW, 5-3-0-2, $621,800. Last Start:
1st GII Wood Memorial S., AQU, Apr. 9. Next Start: GI Kentucky Derby. KY Derby Points: 112.

If Zandon's strong suit is athleticism fused with fighting spirit, and Epicenter's is rock-solid consistency, Mo Donegal rates an edge in terms of late-race torque that is both visually impressive and backed by strong final-eighth times in nine-furlong races. His identical, ground-gaining :12.33 final furlongs in both the GII Remsen S. and the GII Wood Memorial S. are the quickest among all 2021-22 Derby preps at that distance. This $250,000 KEESEP colt by Uncle Mo has never lost ground in the stretch runs of his five career races, and in each of his three wins he had to wrest control from leaders who punched back with purpose. But from a historical perspective, it's been a long time since the path to Louisville ran through New York. Only three horses in the last 58 years-Thunder Gulch, Go for Gin and Pleasant Colony-have parlayed Remsen and Derby wins. It's also been 22 years since the Wood winner went on to capture the Derby (Fusaichi Pegasus). Yet if Mo Donegal were to win the Derby, he'd match Pleasant Colony's rare 1980-81 triple of winning the Remsen, Wood and the Derby.

4) SIMPLIFICATION (c, Not This Time–Simply Confection, by Candy Ride {Arg}) O-Tami Bobo. B-France & Irwin Weiner (FL). T-Antonio Sano. Sales History: $50,000 wlg '19 KEENOV. Lifetime Record: GSW & GISP, 7-3-1-2, $515,350. Last Start: 3rd GI Curlin Florida Derby. Next Start: GI Kentucky Derby. KY Derby Points: 74.

The road to the Derby is annually littered with horses who appear dominant in Florida's shorter winter preps yet can't carry their winning to 10 furlongs in the spring. Can Simplification jump that gap? The No. 4 spot in this week's rankings is where “raw ability” gives way to “the promise of possibility.” This son of Not This Time ($50,000 RNA at KEENOV) was a starter in all four of Gulfstream's sophomore preps for the Derby-wiring the one-turn-mile Mucho Macho Man S.; botching the break but closing well to get second in the GIII Holy Bull S., then winning the GII Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth S. with a prolonged bid from three-eighths out. His beaten-fave third in the GI Florida Derby has a legit excuse attached to it, as Simplification sparred with a sacrificial pacemaker, then got immediately hooked into a second duel when jockey Jose Ortiz decided to fully unleash him with 4 1/2 furlongs left in the race. A Derby scenario in which Simplification gets asked for his best run a little later might be better suited to his still-evolving stalking style.

5) EARLY VOTING (c, Gun Runner–Amour d'Ete, by Tiznow) O-Klaravich Stables, Inc. B-Three Chimneys Farm, LLC (KY).
T-Chad C. Brown. Sales History: $200,000 ylg '20 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW, 3-2-1-0, $321,500. Last Start:
2nd GII Wood Memorial S. Next Start: TBD. KY Derby Points: 50.

Early Voting is the highest-ranked horse on this list whose connections have yet to fully commit to a start in the Derby. Trainer Chad Brown his cited Early Voting's light experience (just three races) and a desire to see where this $200,000 KEESEP frontrunner fits in the Derby's projected pace as several reasons for waiting to make a decision. Early Voting set a spirited tempo despite being relatively unpressured in the early stages of the Wood Memorial, and Jose Ortiz wisely chose not to overextend this colt in a late-race stretch skirmish when second against the more experienced Mo Donegal. If Early Voting presses on to the Derby, Ortiz will face a commitment choice, as he also has been riding No. 4-ranked Simplification.

6) SMILE HAPPY (c, Runhappy–Pleasant Smile, by Pleasant Tap) 'TDN Rising Star' O-Lucky Seven Stable. B-Moreau Bloodstock Int'l Inc. & White Bloodstock LLC (KY). T-Kenneth G. McPeek. Sales History: $175,000 wlg '19 KEENOV; $185,000 ylg '20 FTKSEL. Lifetime Record: GSW & GISP, 4-2-2-0, $549,810. Last Start: 2nd GI Toyota Blue Grass S. KY Derby Points: 70.

It's tough to knock Smile Happy's two sophomore starts. But it's also difficult say with confidence this 'TDN Rising Star' has demonstrated significant progression off his 2-for-2 juvenile campaign. That juxtaposition of undefeated form at age two and a winless season so far at age three is likely to get you about 12-1 on Derby day if you're willing to bet trainer Kenny McPeek has, in fact, precisely honed this son of Runhappy ($175,000 KEENOV; $185,000 FTKSEL) to peak over 10 furlongs. Smile Happy was a hard-charging second in the GII Risen Star S. after jockey Corey Lanerie waited too long to uncoil on the far turn, then split horses in upper stretch and ran up on the heels of a tiring rival. In the Blue Grass S., Lanerie's move was timed much better. But after Smile Happy snatched the lead from the pacemaker at Keeneland's quarter pole, Zandon blew by him at the furlong marker. A clean trip in the Derby puts a tighter Smile Happy in the hunt for getting first run at the pacemakers on the far turn.

7) TIZ THE BOMB (c, Hit It a Bomb–Tiz the Key, by Tiznow) O-Magdalena Racing, Lessee. B-Spendthrift Farm LLC (KY). T-Kenneth McPeek. Sales History: $330,000 Ylg '20 FTKSEL. Lifetime Record: MGSW & GISP, 8-5-1-0, $1,044,401. Last Start: 1st GIII Jeff Ruby Steaks, TP, Apr. 2. Next Start: GI Kentucky Derby. KY Derby Points: 110.

Tiz the Bomb has eight races of experience, with seven starts at a mile or longer. He's won over dirt, over both “good” and “firm” turf, over the undulating Kentucky Downs lawn, and over Turfway's Tapeta. His past performances show the most experience in large fields-he won a 14-horse Grade II stakes at age two, and has three other times finished first or second in races with 12 and 13 starters. Yet despite this broad base of experience, this $330,000 FTKSEL colt by Hit It a Bomb figures to be “on sale” in the Derby mutuels simply because he ran one poor, kickback-eating dirt race off a three-month layoff (the Feb. 5 GIII Holy Bull S., from which the first three finishers all returned to win graded stakes). Based on that one aberrational performance, bettors are likely to deduce that Tiz the Bomb will be averse to the dirt at Churchill. And he just might be-you never know until the gates open. But you'll be getting an overlaid 25-1 or so to find out of his multi-surface staying power works on the Louisville dirt, as opposed to the 15-1 price that more realistically corresponds to Tiz the Bomb's chances.

8) CHARGE IT (c, Tapit–I'll Take Charge, by Indian Charlie) 'TDN Rising Star' O/B-Whisper Hill Farm (KY). T-Todd A. Pletcher. Lifetime Record: GISP, 3-1-1-0, $230,400. Last Start: 2nd GI Curlin Florida Derby. Next Start: GI Kentucky Derby. KY Derby Points: 40.

A bet on 'TDN Rising Star' Charge It in the Derby will require a leap of faith that he has matured significantly through the month of April and into the first week of May. You can see the raw makings of a really nice racehorse based on just three starts. And Charge It's pedigree (by Tapit and anchored by distance-loving second dam Take Charge Lady) definitely has longer-the-better underpinnings. But while his second in the GI Florida Derby was commendable considering it was his initial two-turn try and first race against winners, Charge it was not fully focused through the lane, and the Florida Derby's blah final furlong in :14.09 was the second-slowest final eighth among all nine-furlong preps this season (behind only the muddy GIII Withers S. in :14.15). In addition, 13 horses have now run back out of Charge It's two MSW races, and not a single one of those rivals won their next start, raising legit quality-of-competition questions.

9) TAIBA (c, Gun Runner–Needmore Flattery, by Flatter) 'TDN Rising Star' O-Zedan Racing Stables Inc. B-Bruce C Ryan (KY). T-Tim Yakteen. Sales History: $140,000 Ylg '20 FTKOCT; $1,700,000 2yo '21 FTFMAR. Lifetime Record: GISW, 2-2-0-0, $490,200. Last Start: 1st GI Runhappy Santa Anita Derby, SA, Apr. 9. Next Start: GI Kentucky Derby.

We have owner Amr Zedan diplomatically asserting he's not out to avenge his under-appeal Derby DQ of now-deceased Medina Spirit–even after having gone against the advice of his trainer by insisting on a Santa Anita Derby start so Taiba could earn last-chance Kentucky Derby qualifying points. We also have Hall-of-Fame jockey Mike Smith, who's about to be asked ceaselessly over the next 2 1/2 weeks to compare this precocious 'TDN Rising Star' to Justify, the dazzling Triple Crown winner he rode in 2018. So what will be the result when the narrative of redemption gets coupled in mainstream media with the sky's-the-limit appeal of a flashy, undefeated prospect? Probably the most overbet Derby phenom in a long time. Yes, this son of Gun Runner ($140,000 FTKOCT; $1.7 million FTFMAR) is worthy of superlatives after posting back-to-back triple-digit Beyers in both a MSW sprint and the Santa Anita Derby, a race in which this colt sparred the entire length of the lane against a more seasoned stablemate. But Taiba would truly have to be a once-in-a-generation outlier to thrive against top-of-the-crop competition at 10 furlongs in lifetime start number three, all while shipping for the first time and experiencing a field far larger and far more talented than anything he's faced in limited SoCal action. Too much too soon is the verdict here-although admittedly, it would be pretty neat to witness Taiba shatter conventional wisdom.

10) MESSIER (c, Empire Maker–Checkered Past, by Smart Strike) 'TDN Rising Star' O-SF Racing LLC, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables LLC, Robert E. Masterson, Jay A. Schoenfarber, Waves Edge Capital LLC, Catherine M. Donovan, Golconda Stable & Siena Farm LLC. B-Sam-Son Farm (ON). T-Tim Yakteen. Sales History: $470,000 ylg '20 FTKSEL. Lifetime Record: GSW & GISP, 6-3-3-0, $435,600. Last Start: 2nd GI Runhappy Santa Anita Derby. Next Start: GI Kentucky Derby. KY Derby Points: 40.

I'm attempting to take a more forgiving look at Messier's Santa Anita Derby second, a race I initially described as a “failure to slam the door.” After all, this $470,000 FTKSEL 'TDN Rising Star' forced a favored pacemaker through robust fractions, then, somewhat unexpectedly, had to work hard to try and swat away a more-resilient-than-expected Taiba (Messier initially put away that stablemate in upper stretch, but Taiba re-engaged and powered past). Considering the Santa Anita Derby was the first outing in eight weeks for this Empire Maker colt-and taking into account that Messier was unlikely to have been fully cranked for the effort-the try wasn't half bad (99 Beyer). But the sticking point I can't quite overcome is Messier's penchant for losing at low odds. He's twice been beaten at fifty cents on the dollar, including a no-excuse letdown in the GII Los Alamitos Futurity when he was one-paced after getting a strong second run on the spent speed.

11) BARBER ROAD (c, Race Day–Encounter, by Southern Image) O-WSS Racing, LLC. B-Susan Forrester & Judy Curry (KY). T-John Alexander Ortiz. Sales History: $15,000 wlg '19 KEENOV. Lifetime Record: GISP, 8-2-3-1, $650,720. Last Start: 2nd GI Arkansas Derby. Next Start: GI Kentucky Derby. KY Derby Points: 58.

Barber Road ($15,000 KEENOV) isn't going to wow anybody in the Derby. But this gritty Race Day gray might be capable of hammering past a good portion of the field with his usual late-race determination, and he figures to be picking off horses when distanced-challenged contenders are bailing out. Of all the entrants who'll start north of 40-1 in this year's Derby, I respect this John Ortiz trainee the most. He lost a shoe at some point in the Arkansas Derby, then lost momentum a furlong from the finish when he ran up on the heels of a caving pacemaker. But Barber Road was keen to re-rally, and he prevailed in the “race within the race” by nailing the favorite in a tight place photo. This is all pretty good no-pressure Derby mojo for a colt who's already bankrolled more than 36 times his auction price.

12) WHITE ABARRIO (c, Race Day–Catching Diamonds, by Into Mischief) O-C2 Racing Stable LLC & La Milagrosa Stable, LLC.
B-Spendthrift Farm LLC (KY). T-Saffie A. Joseph, Jr. Sales History: $7,500 ylg '20 OBSWIN; $40,000 2yo '21 OBSMAR. Lifetime Record: GISW, 5-4-0-1, $823,650. Last Start: 1st GI Curlin Florida Derby. Next Start: GI Kentucky Derby. KY Derby Points: 112.

The Florida Derby has produced more Kentucky Derby winners (24) than any other stakes, and the winners of that Gulfstream prep are usually well backed in Louisville. But this year White Abarrio ($7,500 OBSWIN; $40,000 OBSMAR) figures to be the first Florida Derby winner since Materiality in 2015 to go off at 10-1 or higher in the wagering. This athletically nimble Race Day gray has some “punch above his weight” appeal, and we've already seen him beat such well-regarded contenders as Simplification (twice), Mo Donegal, Charge It and Tiz the Bomb. But this Gulfstream specialist (4-for-4) benefitted from ideal circumstances in both of this graded stakes victories, making you wonder if he can improve further under the duress of 10 furlongs. In the traffic-snarled Holy Bull S., White Abarrio enjoyed clear sailing up front while four of his main foes encountered trip woes. And in the Florida Derby, three of White Abarrio's rivals were casualties of poorly executed pace decisions that led to two separate, self-immolating speed duels before the field hit the far turn.

Potentially rounding out the starting gate…

13) Zozos (Munnings): It was interesting that Zozos got bet down to 5-2 second choice behind even-money Epicenter in the Louisiana Derby. That was both his stakes debut and first non-Lasix race after winning his maiden and an allowance, and Zozos had never led the field in the early stages of either of those first two victories. But this 'TDN Rising Star' and homebred for Barry and Joni Butzow forged straight to the front and held well after setting legit splits under two-pronged pressure from a hounding 15-1 long shot and the more intimidating Epicenter, who eventually powered past for the win. Right now Zozos is a true wild card for the Derby. Is he a piece of the pace? A capable presser on the improve? His sire, grandsire, and damsire (Munnings, Speightstown, Forestry) all made their marks sprinting, so there's not much distance-centric foundation in his immediate family.

14) Morello (Classic Empire): A points qualifier who remains uncommitted, Morello ($140,000 KEENOV; $200,000 FTKSEL; $250,000 EASMAY) went off as the undefeated favorite in the Wood Memorial, but he hit the side of the gate at the break and never really recovered. He's 3-for-3 in one-turn races, but untested in terms of both distance and his ability to handle elite-level competition.

15) Crown Pride (Jpn) (Reach the Crown {Jpn}): He won't truly turn three until May 5, but the GII UAE Derby victor is 3-for-4 on dirt with all three victories at nine furlongs or greater. Since the 2000 inception of the UAE Derby, 11 of its winners have gone on to compete in the Kentucky Derby. The best finish among them was sixth, along with two DNF's and a 20th-place try.

16) Tawny Port (Pioneerof the Nile): This $430,000 KEESEP colt has some likeable attributes, but not enough to elevate him to a serious Derby threat. He started his career with two Tapeta wins; was not disgraced when a 24-1 fifth, beaten 7 3/4 lengths on the dirt against Epicenter, Smile Happy and Zandon, then chased Tiz the Bomb home when second at Turfway. He closed capably on Saturday to win the GIII Lexington S. over 1 1/16 miles, cornering four wide on both turns. Originally with the pace, Tawny Port backed off, then sprang a late run with his head cocked toward the stands while the only one gaining ground on a tiring leader. This colt finished well, but he faced no daunting late-race competition over Keeneland's short-stretch configuration.

17) Cyberknife (Gun Runner): In the Arkansas Derby, jockey Florent Geroux sensed Cyberknife was keen early. So he opted out of dueling through a first quarter in an unsustainable :22.11, then barreled through three successively slower quarter-mile splits and a final eighth in a so-so :13.18 to win going away while shifting and drifting through the lane. Not exactly a work of art for this $400,000 FTKSEL colt, but that initial Grade I impression won't matter much if Cyberknife keeps winning and his Beyers remain on an upward arc (last three: 72, 87, 92).

18) Un Ojo (Laoban): The 75-1 winner of the GII Rebel S. has only one functioning eye because of an unfortunate run-in with a tree branch as a yearling. The last time there was a right-eye-only horse in the Derby was in 2017, when Patch ran an admirable 14th despite drawing outermost gate 20. Because his “overcoming adversity” story kept getting repeated, Patch went off way, way underlaid in the betting at 14-1. Will similar support be bestowed upon Un Ojo? We know he can save ground and make one chug-home run. Rain would also be a plus-his two best races occurred on a muddy track (second in the Withers) and on an Oaklawn surface listed as “fast” when the Rebel commenced in a just-starting downpour.

19) Summer Is Tomorrow (Summer Front): Seven races in Dubai at Meydan and Jebel Ali since Dec. 2, with the first six of them at seven furlongs or shorter (two wins). Three-time auction entrant ($25,000 KEENOV; $14,000 RNA at KEESEP; $169,743 ARQDEA) sought the lead in the UAE Derby and held well until the deep end of the Meydan stretch. Trainer Bhupat Seemar has never started a horse in North America under his own license, but he worked for five years under Bob Baffert two decades ago, including when that stable won the 2002 Derby with War Emblem.

20) Happy Jack (Oxbow): He's winless beyond the maiden ranks from five starts and has never been closer than 10 1/2 lengths to the winner in any of his three Santa Anita stakes against short fields. Best Beyer is 83. Yet he currently holds the final Derby qualifying position based on his accrued 30 points.

The post The TDN Kentucky Derby Top 20 for April 19 appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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