Who is Most Likely to be Leading Freshman Sire of 2023?

With the 2-year-old sales season having kicked off and the first 'baby' races of the year ready to get going in a few weeks, laser focus will be placed on the up-and-coming first-crop stallions. Rightfully so, as we all hunt in earnest for the next breakout young sire. Could there possibly be another Gun Runner in the freshman class of 2023?

A total of 16 young guns in North America have 50 or more current 2-year-olds resulting from their first covers in 2020. A great many more have fewer than 50, but numbers beget opportunities. The leading freshman sire of 2023 is likely to be one of those 16.

It's also a good bet that Spendthrift Farm may repeat Bolt d'Oro's 2022 success as the leading freshman sire, as four of the top five freshmen by number of 2-year-olds stand at the Central Kentucky Farm.

The 16 newcomers are concentrated in Kentucky, with one each also in New York and Florida. What almost all have in common is plenty of sire power behind them. Including two freshmen by Curlin and two by Into Mischief, all of the sires of these leading 16 freshmen have thrown Grade I winners themselves, but not all of their sire sons have done the same.

Conformation, dam side, and athleticism of the new 2-year-olds aside, let's examine the hard evidence based solely on elite performance of other sons at stud by the same sires. Which of these 'Sweet 16' is most likely to find success based on how other sons by their sires have fared?

Audible and Maximus Mischief, both by Into Mischief, standing for $25,000 at WinStar Farm, 150 2-year-olds (Audible), and for $7,500 at Spendthrift Farm, 135 2-year-olds (Maximus Mischief)

It's impossible to overlook Into Mischief, who is coming off his fourth general sire championship. He's got an embarrassment of riches with a plethora of up-and-coming young sire sons in the next few years, including Kentucky Derby winners Authentic and Mandaloun, as well as four-time GISW and Breeders' Cup winner Life Is Good. Getting the first jump are GI Florida Derby winner Audible and GII Remsen S. winner Maximus Mischief. Into Mischief's first major sire sons are Goldencents and Practical Joke, both of whom have already sired a U.S. GISW. In addition, Practical Joke has hot Derby prospect and MGSW Practical Move. Audible was particularly popular at OBS March, with his top two each working in :10 and bringing $500,000 and $425,000, respectively.

 

And the second freshman by Into Mischief for 2023:

 

Catalina Cruiser, by Union Rags, standing for $15,000 at Lane's End, 110 2-year-olds

Holding the distinction of being the fourth generation of his sire line (Union Rags-Dixie Union-Dixieland Band) to stand at Lane's End, five-time graded winner Catalina Cruiser could be the first big-time sire son for Union Rags. The latter's only other sire son in a major market is Free Drop Billy, whose first-crop sophomores have not yet broken through on the graded stage. Catalina Cruiser's top 2-year-old specimen at OBS March breezed in :21 and brought $400,000 post sale.

 

Catholic Boy, by More Than Ready, standing for $15,000 at Claiborne Farm, 104 2-year-olds

Any horse that can win the GI Belmont Derby on grass in July and the GI Travers S. on dirt just over a month later has to be taken seriously. The late More Than Ready was the dual hemisphere phenom whose sire sons include Australia's late Sebring (Aus), sire of at least eight Group 1 winners; the exported Verrazano with one U.S. Grade I winner and two Chilean Group 1 winners; Gimmethegreenlight (Aus) with six Group 1 winners spread between Australia and South Africa; Daredevil, whose first-crop exploits included both a Classic winner and a GI Kentucky Oaks winner; and Custom for Carlos, who stands in Louisiana and came up with a U.S. Grade I winner despite averaging just 45 foals a year.

 

Demarchelier (GB), by Dubawi (Ire), standing for $5,000 at Claiborne Farm, 70 2-year-olds

Even as the first known son of Dubawi at stud in the U.S., GSW Demarchelier will not suffer from pedigree anonymity as Dubawi is arguably the top sire in Europe. At least five of his sire sons have been responsible for Grade I or Group 1 winners on their own: Al Kazeem (GB), Makfi (GB), New Bay (GB), Night of Thunder (Ire), and Poet's Voice (GB).

 

Enticed, by Medaglia d'Oro, standing for $5,000 at Darley, 103 2-year-olds

Like Curlin, Into Mischief, and War Front, who also have freshmen sons with first juveniles this year, Medaglia d'Oro is one of the elite stallions of Kentucky with the sustained success of umpteen Grade I winners to his credit. Among his sons, two have sired Grade I winners to date, with Violence holding the top spot as far and away his best sire son so far. Violence has four GISWs, including current Derby favorite Forte. Medaglia d'Oro also has Astern (Aus) with a Group 1 winner in Australia and Bolt d'Oro as last year's top freshman who has not yet broken through with a Grade I winner. Enticed himself was precocious, winning the GII Kentucky Jockey Club S. and placing in the GI Champagne S. at two.

 

Flameaway, by Scat Daddy, standing for $7,500 at Darby Dan Farm, 116 2-year-olds

MGSW Flameaway's late sire ignited early with his first runners and his success just magnified after his death at age 11. Among the late Scat Daddy's sons to sire a Group 1 winner to date is his undisputed sire son leader No Nay Never, as well as the classy Caravaggio. And then there's Triple Crown winner Justify, who gives the sense he's knocking on the Grade I door after his first American and Australian crops yielded five graded/group winners.

Leofric, by Candy Ride (Arg), standing for $7,500 at Darby Dan Farm, 56 2-year-olds

After the success of Gun Runner, Candy Ride sons are a hot commodity and he will have a steady pipeline of sons with first runners in the coming years, including champion Game Winner and MGISW Vekoma (both with first yearlings this year), as well as GISW Rock Your World (first weanlings this year). GI Clark H. winner Leofric is the early bird among the group that follows Candy Ride's two sire sons who have achieved out-of-this-world success: Gun Runner and Twirling Candy. The former, with only two crops to race, has sired a spectacular six GISWs and another five Grade I performers. The latter is no slouch either, accounting for seven Grade I winners from his eight crops to race. Both also have sired Classic winners. Clearly, when Candy Ride hits, he hits big.

Mitole, by Eskendereya, standing for $15,000 at Spendthrift Farm, 158 2-year-olds

A champion and MGISW who helped contribute to his dam being crowned Broodmare of the Year for 2021, Mitole is one of three freshmen who are charting new territory for their own sires by attempting to become their first established son in the sire ranks. Eskendereya was exported to Japan in 2015 when Mitole was just a foal. The stallion's only other known sire son in the U.S. is Mor Spirit, who stands alongside Mitole at Spendthrift and has yet to have a graded performer in his first crop (now sophomores). Buyers at OBS March liked what they saw: the top three Mitole 2-year-olds all worked in :10 and brought $350,000, $325,000, and $300,000, respectively.

 

Omaha Beach, by War Front, standing for $30,000 at Spendthrift Farm, 138 2-year-olds

The brilliant Omaha Beach, a triple Grade I winner, looks every bit the part of a stallion who's going to make it. No matter how you look at it–whether it's his sire, the bottom side of his pedigree, his own race performance, his first yearlings–he's hard to fault. Among his first 2-year-olds at OBS March was a $690,000 filly who worked in :9 4/5. The venerable War Front, sire of a surplus of Grade I winners, has had three sons who have made it to the big stage as sires thus far: Declaration of War with Grade I/Group 1 winners in the U.S., Australia, France, and Canada; The Factor with two U.S. GISWs; and Hit It a Bomb with an Argentinean Group 1 winner. Omaha Beach and Classic winner War of Will (first yearlings this year) are among War Front's top sire prospects yet.

 

Preservationist, by Arch, standing for $10,000 at Airdrie Stud, 76 2-year-olds

GI Woodward S. winner Preservationist and fellow GISW Instilled Regard (whose first foals are currently yearlings) are the last top horses by the late Arch, who died in 2016 just prior to the breeding season, to go to stud. Arch has had two sons sire GISWs: the late Archarcharch, whose last crops were in Korea, and Blame, who has sired five GISWs and counting.

 

Solomini and Vino Rosso, both by Curlin, standing for $6,500 at McMahon of Saratoga Thoroughbreds, 78 2-year-olds (Solomini), and for $15,000 at Spendthrift Farm, 178 2-year-olds (Vino Rosso)

Is there any limit to Curlin's prowess as a sire? Last year, he topped his own sire and grandsire (Smart Strike and Mr. Prospector)–who tied with a dozen other stallions by siring two Eclipse winners in a single year–when he made history as the only sire to ever have three individual Eclipse winners in a single year. Like Candy Ride and Into Mischief, he's got a number of sons with first crops to the races on the horizon. This year, it's his champion and GI Breeders' Cup Classic winner Vino Rosso and his MGISP Solomini who will send their first juveniles to the races. Curlin has no fewer than four sons who have sired Grade I winners: Good Magic (whose first crop is just three this year), Connect and Keen Ice (whose first crops are four), and Palace Malice. Both Vino Rosso and Solomini had a number of first juveniles at OBS March: Vino Rosso's top was a :9 4/5 breezer who hammered for $550,000 and Solomini's best worked in :10 and brought $200,000.

 

St Patrick's Day, by Pioneerof the Nile, standing for $3,500 at Journeyman Stallions, 71 2-year-olds

A maiden winner at two and graded-placed at three, St Patrick's Day has the lightest race record of this group, but he's a full-brother to Triple Crown winner American Pharoah. Although the late Pioneerof the Nile has a number of very useful sons at stud, American Pharoah is the first who has broken through with any Grade 1/Group 1 winners. He has a half-dozen of those to his name.

World of Trouble, by Kantharos, standing for $5,000 at Hill 'n' Dale Farm, 89 2-year-olds

A wickedly fast GISW on both dirt and turf, World of Trouble might be the biggest wild card among the freshmen sire ranks in terms of sire power. The only other son of Kantharos at stud in a major market is Bucchero, who stands in Florida and has yet to have a graded performer in his first crop (now sophomores).

 

Yoshida (Jpn), by Heart's Cry (Jpn), standing for $10,000 at WinStar Farm, 101 2-year-olds

A Grade I winner on both dirt and turf, Yoshida is the only known son of Sunday Silence's Heart's Cry standing in Kentucky. Among Heart's Cry's sire sons is Just a Way (Jpn), who has a 2-year-old champion and Group 1 winner in Japan. Heart's Cry just passed away Mar. 9.

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Session Toppers and 5 A.M. Errands: Chance Timm on First Keeneland Sale as Grovendale Partner

Making a 5 a.m. trip to Walgreens for Vicks VapoRub was probably not what Chance Timm envisioned as part of his job description when he partnered with James Keogh at Grovendale Sales earlier this year, but when your consignment needs its supplies replenished during the second half of the Keeneland September Sale, you do what you need to do.

Timm is more than happy to take on some of those less-than-glamorous duties. In fact, he enjoys them.

“I like being hands on,” Timm said Monday morning while showing Book 4 yearlings at Barn 43. “I like being involved in everything that happens. We run a pretty tight ship, but James and I will both wear whatever hat is needed so that whatever needs to be done gets done. We love being involved and understanding all the little intricacies about each horse so we're able to make those small changes throughout the process that may really help.”

Timm has been involved in the Thoroughbred business for over 15 years, including eight years serving as the Director of Stallions Seasons and Shares at Lane's End Farm. While he has spent his fair share of time combing through the barns at various sales over the years, this is his first experience as a consignor during the marathon that is the Keeneland September Sale.

“It's nuts,” he said with a laugh and a wipe of his brow. “I was lucky at Lane's End that I was involved in the sales process but– fortunately or otherwise–I never had to deal with the minutiae and all the intricate details that come with putting something like this on. But I am now and it's exciting. It's great to work for yourself and put that pressure on yourself to make it happen. James has given me an unbelievable opportunity to partner with him and take advantage of his name, reputation and what he has built here. Hopefully I can build on it too.”

Grovendale Sales sent a $575,000 Munnings filly through the ring during the sixth session of Keeneland September | Keeneland

During its first Keeneland September operating under the Keogh-Timm partnership banner, Grovendale is already in the midst of a successful auction. On Sunday, they sold the session-topping filly for $575,000 to West Bloodstock for Repole Stables. The daughter of Munnings out of the stakes-placed Unbridled's Song mare Oh Carole was bred by Chelsea Bloodstock, Galtee Bloodstock and Paget Bloodstock.

Timm noted that the headlining filly had all the top players looking at her over the weekend.

“That's why we have horse sales,” he said. “When buyers hook up, they can exceed your expectations. She was an impressive filly with a lot of class. She had a lot of leg and length to her and was very robust. I would think she's an exceptional model of her sire and the market agreed.”

As for the marketplace in its entirety, Timm explained that they have found it to be a continuation of the polarized market.

“It's exceptionally strong at the top,” he said. “For those that are deemed as desirable, it's crazy strong. The filly yesterday had an enormous amount of interest and it's crazy for those kinds of horses, but it's probably equally polarized on the other end. If they fall through the cracks or people don't like them, it kind of is what it is.”

With just under 30 yearlings on Grovendale's Keeneland September roster, Timm said that the group represents many of Keogh's longstanding clients as well as some he shares a connection with through the various positions he has held in the industry over the years.

“There are a lot of people that have come with me as I've joined the partnership,” he explained. “Fallbrook Farm, Gail Radke, Jackpot Farm and Summer Wind Farm are all organizations that I am lucky to have a close association with and they're willing to support Grovendale. WinStar Farm has had a long association with James. They raise a really nice horse and I think people are aware of that so we're grateful for their continued support.”

One of Grovendale's seven yearlings going through the ring on Tuesday during Book 4 was bred and raised at WinStar. The colt by Winstar's first-crop yearling sire Yoshida (Jpn) is from the family of GISW Corinthian (Pulpit) and sells as Hip 2543.

“He's a really strong physical,” Timm shared. “We purposefully placed him in Book 4. I thought he was good enough to be in Book 3 and Keeneland originally placed him there, but we felt like he would stand out in Book 4. I think he'll represent his sire and his farm well.”

Timm said that another promising youngster from their list of Book 4 offerings is Hip 2672, a filly by World of Trouble.

“I think she'll be represented well here in this spot too,” he noted. “She's by a first-crop sire and she has a wonderful profile. Herbener Farm raised her and we're honored to have the opportunity to represent the Herbener family.”

Other yearlings preparing to go through the ring for Grovendale in the coming sessions showcase sire power like Munnings, Uncle Mo and Justify, as well as additional first-crop yearling sires in Vino Rosso, Mitole and Coal Front.

Once the September Sale concludes, Timm and Keogh will be preparing for a busy Keeneland November. Last year Grovendale was a top 10 consignor there with gross sales of over $6.9 million.

Timm said that as Grovendale evolves, they hope to maintain the consignment's well-known presence at the breeding stock sales while also widening their reach on the yearling side of the business.

“I think for the most part, James' business in the past has been pointed toward the breeding stock sales and we have a really strong group of about 80 horses pointing towards this November Sale,” he explained. “I'd say the opportunity for us is within the yearling market. It's something I hope to contribute to over time, but we're never looking to be a large consignment. I think for both of us, our primary motivation is helping the people that we represent do well. We try to do whatever we can to be hands on and help people make the right decisions so they can maximize the value of their horses.”

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First-Crop Yearling Previews: Yoshida

The ever-growing depth and caliber of the Japanese breeding and racing industry was on full display at last year's Breeders' Cup World Championships when Japan captured its first two Breeders' Cup victories in a span of just a few hours.

One year before future champions Loves Only You (Jpn) (Deep Impact {Jpn}) and Marche Lorraine (Jpn) (Orfevre {Jpn}) were both foaled, WinStar Farm's Elliott Walden and SF Bloodstock's Tom Ryan attended the 2015 Japan Racing Horse Association's yearling and weanling sale. They came home with a group that included Yoshida (Jpn) (Heart's Cry {Jpn} – Hilda's Passion, by Canadian Frontier)–a ¥94 million (approximately $850,000) yearling purchase, eventual multiple Grade I-winning 'TDN Rising Star', and now, a WinStar Farm sire with his first crop of yearlings pointing for the sales ring.

Bred by Katsumi Yoshida's Northern Farm, the grandson of the Japanese breed-shaping sire Sunday Silence is the second foal out of Hilda's Passion, a multiple graded stakes winner who culminated her career with a victory in the 2011 GI Ballerina S. and then sold to Katsumi Yoshida for $1.225 million at the Fasig-Tipton November Sale.

“Yoshida is very prototypical of the Japanese breeding program,” said WinStar's Liam O'Rourke. “He's out of an elite American race mare and he is by a son of Sunday Silence. We've seen it come to fruition in recent times that in the Japanese program, they breed for class and versatility. Those are two of the big qualities that Yoshida represents.”

Campaigned by WinStar Farm, China Horse Club and Head of Plains Partners, Yoshida raced from age two through five under Bill Mott's tutelage, claiming four stakes wins headlined by the GI Old Forester Turf Classic S. on turf and the GI Woodward S. on dirt.

Debuting in his career at stud with a fee of $20,000 in 2020, the durable earner of $2.5 million bred 148 mares in his first year at WinStar. With a $15,000 stud fee, he saw another 84 mares last year.

“His first book was ranked third by CPI among [incoming] sires that year,” O'Rourke noted. “We're very proud of the types of mares that he has gotten. He's been supported by a variety of breeders, both commercial and racing types.”

As Yoshida's yearlings now work through their sales prep, O'Rourke said that he has heard optimistic reviews from breeders.

“They have a lot of his physical qualities,” he reported. “They have that class and strength. In watching them as foals early on out in the field, you could see that they were high energy. They were assertive types, kind of rambunctious, and were really aware of their surroundings. The one really common piece of feedback that I get as I've been visiting farms is that you can't give them enough work. That's a great quality when they have the desire to work and to be competitive.”

O'Rourke said that Yoshida's ability on multiple surfaces, along with Japan's growing success on a global scale, has retained breeders' interest throughout the stallion's first three years at stud.

“It's unique that he was so successful on dirt and turf,” he said. “I think he brings a different dimension to the stud barn that we're very proud to offer breeders. He was a very convincing winner of the Woodward, which is a great sire-producing race. In the Old Forester Turf Classic on Derby Day, [he beat] a great field. I think there was eight graded stakes winners in that field. He also beat Horse of the Year Bricks and Mortar in the GIII Hill Prince S.”

Last year, Yoshida was represented by 36 weanlings and short yearlings at the fall and winter breeding stock sales. 23 youngsters sold to average $38,279. His colt out of GIIISW Catherinethegreat (Uncaptured) sold for $150,000 at the Keeneland November Sale while in Japan, a colt out of Curlins BFF (Curlin) brought $181,235.

Yoshida has seven yearlings cataloged for the upcoming Fasig-Tipton July Sale on July 12, including a colt out of Moon and Stars (Orb) that sells as Hip 19 with the Shawhan Place consignment.

“He's very strong with tons of bone, good hip and a strong shoulder,” said Shawhan Place's Director of Sales Courtney Schneider. “He's built like a bull; he's just so strong. He's very easy to work with and he's a little bit more forward than our others so that's why we wanted to showcase him a bit earlier in the July Sale.”

Shawhan Place has a special connection with Yoshida as the birthplace of his dam. Bred by Shawhan partner Ted Kuster, Hilda's Passion did not meet her reserve as a weanling, but was sold early in her racing career and went on to claim five graded stakes for Starlight Racing.

“Yoshida was a stallion we were really excited to support here on the farm,” Schneider said. “He was a dual-surface Grade I winner and has all the qualifications of bringing back the Sunday Silence line. We have several on the farm that we're really excited about.”

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WinStar Farm Announces 2022 Stallion Roster And Fees

WinStar Farm has set 2022 stud fees for its 18-stallion roster, headed by Speightstown who will once again stand for $90,000 S&N and Constitution who will remain at $85,000 S&N for the upcoming breeding season.

Stallions will be available for inspection by appointment from 11 a.m.-2 p.m. during the Fasig-Tipton October Yearling Sale, Oct. 25-28.

“Our 2022 roster is suited for breeders at every level,” said Elliott Walden, WinStar's president, CEO, and racing manager. “Speightstown, Constitution, and More Than Ready continue to provide breeders with options from prolific sire lines that American racing thrives on. We have young, exciting Grade 1-winning stallions, including Improbable, Audible, Yoshida, Tom's d'Etat, and Global Campaign who all have the potential to be top sires and lead the new generation of stallions at WinStar. We also have proven sires like Paynter and Take Charge Indy who provide value with the possibility of getting a racehorse at the highest level.”

Perennial leading sire Speightstown, a top three general sire again with progeny earnings of $13,442,775 thus far in 2021, is represented on the track this season by Lexitonian, winner of the $350,000 Grade 1 Alfred G. Vanderbilt Handicap; Flagstaff, winner of the $500,000 G1 Churchill Downs Stakes and the $200,000 G3 Commonwealth Stakes, and undefeated 3-year-old filly Carribean Caper, winner of five consecutive races, including the $275,000 G3 Dogwood Stakes. Speightstown has sired 22 Grade 1 winners on every surface, from six furlongs to 1 1/4 miles all over the world.

Constitution, sire of last year's Belmont Stakes winner Tiz the Law from his first crop, is the top-ranked third-crop sire this year with progeny earnings of $8,003,426, 29 black type horses, and four graded stakes winners. He is the sire of 2-year-old stakes winner Major General, winner of the $300,000 G3 Iroquois Stakes; Warrant, winner of the $400,000 G3 Oklahoma Derby; Promise Keeper, winner of the $200,000 G3 Peter Pan Stakes, and multiple stakes winner Americanrevolution, who most recently finished a rallying third in the $1 million Pennsylvania Derby.

The legendary More Than Ready will stand the upcoming breeding season for $50,000 S&N. With 212 black type winners—only Galileo and Sadler's Wells have more—More Than Ready also has more Breeders' Cup wins than any other sire in history with seven.

More Than Ready stands poised to add to that total at this year's Breeders' Cup with four juvenile stakes winners in 2021—Slipstream, winner of the $150,000 G3 Futurity Stakes, Bubble Rock, victorious in the $150,000 G3 Matron Stakes, Consumer Spending, winner of the $150,000 Selima Stakes at Laurel, and Koala Princess, winner of the $500,000 Ainsworth Stakes at Kentucky Downs—all under consideration for racing's championship event. More Than Ready is the only sire to have an Eclipse Award champion each of the last four years, and he added a new Grade 1 winner this year in Hit the Road, winner of the G1 Frank E. Kilroe Mile.

With first foals on the way in 2022, Improbable, the 2020 Eclipse champion older male, will stand his second season at stud for $35,000 S&N. Undefeated at two and a spectacular five-length winner of the G1 Los Alamitos Futurity, Improbable rattled off three consecutive Grade 1 victories in 2020, winning the G1 Awesome Again Stakes with a 108 Beyer Speed Figure, the G1 Whitney Stakes in a 106 Beyer, and the G1 Hollywood Gold Cup with a 105 Beyer. By City Zip, Improbable is from the immediate female family of Hard Spun.

Audible, WinStar's most popular first-year sire ever having bred more than 400 mares in his first two years at stud, will stand for $22,500 S&N. The handsome son of Into Mischief was a dominant three-length winner of the $1 million G1 Florida Derby and was a 5 1/2-length winner of the $350,000 G2 Holy Bull Stakes in his stakes debut and with a final time of 1:41.92, he was the fastest winner of the race in the last eight years. Audible will have first yearlings in 2022.

Paynter, who is currently ranked eighth on the general sires list with progeny earnings of $9,679,227, will stand for $7,500. That fee, however, is only guaranteed through the Breeders' Cup where Paynter's son, Knicks Go, the top-ranked horse on the NTRA Thoroughbred Poll and a four-time Grade 1 winner, is the likely favorite for the $6 million Breeders' Cup Classic.

The 2022 roster of stallions and fees (subject to change) for WinStar Farm are as follows:

Stallion S&N Fee
Always Dreaming $12,500
Audible $22,500
Carpe Diem $5,000
Constitution $85,000
Exaggerator $7,500
Global Campaign $12,500
Good Samaritan $7,500
Improbable $35,000
More Than Ready $50,000
Outwork $10,000
Paynter $7,500
Promises Fulfilled $5,000
Speightster $7,500
Speightstown $90,000
Take Charge Indy $12,500
Tom's d'Etat $12,500
Tourist $5,000
Yoshida (JPN) $12,500

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