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Goffs UK Autumn Sale Catalogue Released

The one-day Goffs UK Autumn Sale catalogue is now online. Set to begin at 10 a.m. at Doncaster on Oct. 22, the sale will be split into three portions: the Autumn Horses-in-Training Sale (lots 1-195), the Silver Yearling Sale (lots 196-254) and finally the Autumn Yearling Sale (lots 255-308). Jumpers primarily feature in the Autumn Horses-in-Training Sale, but there are a few Flat performers sprinkled in like the 89-rated two-time winner Confide (GB) (Lope de Vega {Ire}) (lot 49) from Lodge Farm Stud. The Silver and Autumn Yearling Sales offer 113 yearlings between them by the likes of Bated Breath (GB), Belardo (Ire), Due Diligence, Havana Gold (Ire), Pride of Dubai (Aus) and Twilight Son (GB) to name a few.

“This year hosts a different format compared to the traditional Autumn Sale with a notable addition, the Silver Yearling Sale, and a significant absence in the full Point-to-Point/Form Horse Session,” said Goffs UK Managing Director Tim Kent. “The inclusion of the Silver Sale will give buyers access to more commercial yearlings and both yearling sales have proven their ability to produce Group 1 horses with the likes of Quiet Reflection and Mabs Cross coming from their ranks.

“The shifting of the sale’s Point-to-Point/Form Horse Session away from this date, to a stand alone sale two weeks later on Friday, 6, Nov., means we can offer point-to-point handlers and buyers a dedicated P2P Sale. That being said, this sale has some smart performers catalogued and we look forward to welcoming everyone back to Doncaster in just over two weeks.”

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Taking Stock: Keeneland Numbers Are Troubling

With a pandemic that’s led to the loss of 200,000 lives, the loss of jobs, and overall economic instability that’s affected most people except for the super wealthy that are heavily invested in the stock market, no one expected the Keeneland September yearling sale to be anything but down by gross and average versus last year. This was as predictable as saying that an egg dropped on concrete from six feet would break.

So, what’s the damage? Through the first 10 sessions that ended with Book 5 on Wednesday, 2,129 yearlings had sold for a gross of $245,278,700 and an average price of $115,208, with a median of $50,000. The final two sessions on Thursday and Friday that comprise the most inexpensive horses in the sale in Book 6 will not add much to the gross, dropping the average further. Last year, the penultimate session added $2,299,500 to the gross with an average price on the day of $10,646, and the last day added $1,340,300 with an average price of $6,382.

Based on the numbers for the last two days in 2019, you can project that this year’s sale will end with a gross of about $249,000,000 for about 2,500 head sold, which suggests an average of about $100,000 or slightly under, versus 2,974 yearlings sold for $372,348,400 with an average price of $125,201 and a median of $47,000 one year ago. The sale gross will probably be down about 33% and the average down about 20%. Those are big hits nowhere in the neighborhood of anything since the Great Recession of 2007 to 2009.

In 2009, the worst year of the recession, 3,279 yearlings grossed $198,055,200, averaging $60,401 with a median of $22,000. The gross and average figures represented declines of 40% and 34%, respectively, versus the previous year.

Two years prior to that, however, when the economy first showed signs of trouble, the gross of $385,110,600 and the average of $101,317 were down 4% and 10%, respectively, from 2006, suggesting that the declines this year could be a harbinger of worse to come if the economy doesn’t rebound over the next few years. In other words, the first year of deep economic turmoil doesn’t usually tell the whole story of what’s about to unravel, and if we’re already down a third by gross and about 20% by average now, what will happen next year and the year after if troubles continue? Those are sobering thoughts.

One other crinkle worth mentioning: every year from 2006 to 2019, 63% to 72% of the catalog has sold. This year, however, for the first time, the sale is on pace to see a transaction rate of less than 60% from horses catalogued, including “outs” and RNAs. Many of those that were outs or didn’t make reserves were higher-priced horses, and their absence significantly impacted the gross. For example, if you add about 5% of the catalog back into the mix at an average price of $200,000 (and that’s a low estimate considering the number of buybacks out of Book 1 alone), that’s conservatively about $43,000,000 that could have raised the gross to $292,000,000. Under this scenario, the gross would have declined 22% instead of the projected 33%. Likewise, the average would have been about $117,000, or a decline of 7% instead of 20%.

Top of the Market

Keeneland’s Director of Sales Operations Geoffrey Russell addressed this issue in TDN after Book 1 concluded, saying, “We are in that Book 1 market where people are willing to send horses to the racetrack. As we go through the sale, there are people who are commercial breeders with commercial crops who have to sell, so hopefully we see a change in that.”

What that translates to is that the people who sell at the top end of the market are more financially secure and can keep those horses they don’t sell, but those below the top are less solvent and have to sell to generate cash flow, particularly in the bottom half of the market. The numbers bear this out. In Book 1, only 228 of 448 catalogued, or 51%, sold. In Book 5, in contrast, 500 of 792, or 63%, sold–a figure on the low end of historical trends but still within the parameters.

Therefore, as predictable as the declines were this year, it was just as predictable that the top of the market would be the least affected by the conditions. One reason, as noted earlier, is the strength of the stock market. Unlike other economic indicators, the stock market was near all-time highs through the first week of the two-week sale and is mostly in a bubble that’s not representative of the general economic malaise that’s plagued the rest of society. Those folks invested in it haven’t lost money, and they spent commensurately at Keeneland at the top end. Last year, there were 22 lots that made $1 million or more, and this year the number was 15, though the group from a year ago brought significantly more in aggregate, headed by the $8.2 million American Pharoah filly from Leslie’s Lady purchased by Mandy Pope. This year the top price was the $2 million Tapit colt from Tara’s Tango purchased by the partnership of Eclipse, Robert LaPenta, Gainesway, and Ron Winchell. Eclipse, LaPenta, and Bridlewood had earlier been partners in the purchase of Tapwrit (Tapit) for $1.2 million at Fasig-Tipton in 2015. Gainesway and Pope later joined the group in the ownership of the colt that would win the Gl Belmont S. and is now at stud at Gainesway.

An increase in partnerships for stallion prospects has been a feature of select portions of yearling sales in recent years, fueling some of its growth, but it probably reached its apex this year. It had heated up particularly after the success of Justify, purchased for $500,000 at Keeneland in 2016 by WinStar, China Horse Club, and SF Bloodstock and later sold for big bucks to Coolmore. Justify was followed closely by a trio of successes for the reconstituted buying group of SF Bloodstock, Starlight, Madaket, and partners, self-dubbed “The Avengers,” whose scores include Grade l winner Eight Rings (Empire Maker), sold for stud to Coolmore; DQ’d Grade l winner Charlatan (Speightstown), sold to a syndicate headed by John Sikura at Hill ‘n’ Dale; and Grade l Kentucky Derby winner Authentic (Into Mischief), whose breeding rights were sold to Spendthrift. All three were purchased at Keeneland in 2018 and represented massive returns on investment like Justify.

The Avengers were back and bigger again this year, along with other groups following the same plan. The Jockey Club’s 140-mare cap rule, which takes effect for horses foaled in 2020 or later, probably helped to fuel prices and prop the market even higher despite current economic conditions, because current yearlings were foaled in 2019 and will not be limited to the restriction should they make it to the breeding shed–meaning, that they have a chance to make more money at stud. Next year’s sale featuring foals of 2020, however, will likely be dampened by the 140-mare restriction–an industry-made valve that will have the unintended consequence of closing off money flow for yearling colts during what could be another economically challenging year.

And if the stock market, which is highly volatile, does crash in the next year or two–remember that it was in 2009, two years after the economy started melting, that the Dow Jones bottomed–the industry could be in for even tougher times. It was after the 2007-2009 recession that foal crops settled at the 18,000-20,000 foals-per-year range, which was down from the 35,000 range before 2007. Further upheaval will drop crops down more, shrinking all aspects of the industry with it.

In March in this space, I wrote this about the last decade, when the stock market recovered and grew to new heights: “The sizes of annual foal crops, however, were completely unaffected by a rising stock market over this time span. This striking anomaly indicates that even in the best of times, the foal crop will not rise, but under adverse economic conditions, it falls significantly and will likely fall again if the market bottoms. This peculiar relationship of flat foal crops within a rising stock market also suggests that the top parts of the yearling market are healthy–mirroring society at large, where the wealthy keep getting a greater piece of the pie–and those participating in this sector are expanding their equine holdings as those at the bottom are being squeezed out, keeping foal production stable through a statistical sleight of hand.”

That is what it is.

Sid Fernando is president and CEO of Werk Thoroughbred Consultants, Inc., originator of the Werk Nick Rating and eNicks.

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Selective Market Prevails as Book 3 Concludes at Keeneland

LEXINGTON, KY – Bidding continued to be solid for the prized lots, but the market was increasingly polarized as the second and final Book 3 session concluded Saturday in Lexington. Trainer Bob Baffert and Donato Lanni purchased the day’s highest-priced offering, going to $450,000 to acquire a colt from the first crop of Unified on behalf of Mike Pegram, Paul Weitman, and Karl Watson.

During Saturday’s session, 239 horses sold for $18,364,200. The average was $76,838 and the median was $52,000. With 110 horses reported not sold, the buy-back rate was 31.52%-the lowest session buy-back rate of the sale so far.

Through the two sessions of Book 3, 439 yearlings sold for $40,167,700. The average was $91,498 and the median was $65,000. Just one horse topped the $500,000 mark–Friday’s session-topping $625,000 son of Into Mischief–during the book.

In the two-session 2019 Book 3 section, 523 yearlings grossed $56,761,500 for an average of $108,531 and a median of $80,000. Five horses sold for $500,000 or over.

“If you have the physical and the vetting and the sire, there is plenty of money here,” said Zach Madden of Buckland Sales. “But if you have one little bit of criteria that you don’t meet what the market perceives as being optimal, it’s really, really sticky. You have to be realistic on reserves and you can’t get too carried away on anything.”

While the auction market has been polarized for several years now, Madden thinks the global pandemic and uncertainty in the economy has widened the gap.

“I think the polarization is definitely accentuated because I just of how cumbersome COVID has made everything–the economy and the whole way people live. Today was a little bit of up and down, but at the end of the day, I still feel like end users are here and I feel like their may be more people in town with the shifts in books. I am still hopeful. We ended up having a pretty good day and my neighbors back at the barn seem to not be dragging their heads too much. Fingers crossed it continues.”

Bloodstock agent Deuce Greathouse signed for six yearlings during Saturday’s session.

“Everybody is getting more selective,” Greathouse said. “You hear the sellers say the middle market is weak and all the buyers say everything they follow up there to buy is hard to buy. I think the ones you like are maybe a hair more reasonable this year. It seems like we’ve got some stuff done, it’s been difficult, but we’ve got some stuff done.”

The Keeneland September sale continues through Friday with sessions beginning daily at 10 a.m.

Unified Colt Scores for Greathouse

Trainer Bob Baffert and bloodstock agent Donato Lanni continued to pluck the top colts from the back show ring Saturday at Keeneland, going to $450,000 to acquire a colt from the first crop of multiple graded stakes winner Unified (Candy Ride {Arg}) from the Four Star Sales consignment.

“I like what I’ve seen by Unified,” Lanni said after signing the ticket on hip hip 1769 in the name of Baffert’s “Three Amigos” clients, Mike Pegram, Paul Weitman, and Karl Watson. “This colt stood out in Book 3. There is still money here for good horses, so we paid more money than we thought. But everybody is here and the good ones cost money.”

The bay colt is out of Fay Na Na (Majestic Warrior), a half-sister to graded placed The Truth and K G (Successful Appeal). He was bred by John Greathouse’s Greathouse Equine and his family’s Glencrest Farm.

“Everything about him is special: his demeanor, the way he looks and the way he walks, his mind,” Greathouse said. “He’s done everything right since he got here. He showed non-stop and has not slowed down or turned a hair. He’s been an absolute champion.”

The Greathouse family’s association with Fay Na Na traces back to the 2012 Keeneland September sale, where she was purchased by David Greathouse and his son Deuce for $90,000. The mare never raced and sold for $1,200 at the 2014 Keeneland November sale.

“My uncle and cousin actually bought the mare as a yearling and I bought her privately off a friend a little bit later on,” Greathouse said. “She’s been nothing but good to me. She’s lived on the farm, my wife and I foaled this colt out. And here we are. This is really special.”

Among those celebrating the outstanding result was the senior John Greathouse, who said he came out to the sale Saturday after his son told him he was expecting big things from the yearling. But, given the uncertain market conditions, the younger Greathouse admitted the colt had exceeded expectations.

“To say I expected that for him would be ridiculous,” he said. “I am thrilled. I am thrilled he’s going to good hands and I am grateful to all the people who liked him.”

Fay Na Na produced a colt by Violence this year.

Maverick Strikes for Violence Colt

WinStar Farm’s Elliott Walden, bidding from the back row of the sales pavilion, went to $410,000 to acquire a colt by Violence for the farm’s Maverick Racing division to lead early returns at Saturday’s sixth session of the Keeneland September sale.

“He’s a beautiful colt,” Walden said after signing the ticket on hip 1694. “He was our favorite horse of the day.”

Violence is having a standout year and added a third 2020 Grade I winner to his resume with recent GI Del Mar Futurity winner Dr. Schivel.

“Wouldn’t be buying him last year, but you’ve got to look at them this year,” Walden said of the stallion.

As the September sale marched into its second week, Walden said, “There are some really good physicals still coming and I’m encouraged with what is in Books 3 and 4.”

Hip 1694, consigned by Hidden Brook, is out of stakes-placed Brinkley (City Zip), a half-sister to graded stakes winner Bound for Nowhere (The Factor). The yearling’s third dam produced sprint champion Midnight Lute. He was bred by Douglas Scharbauer, who purchased Brinkley for $170,000 at the 2016 Keeneland November sale.

Dobson Over the Moon

Everett Dobson, whose Candy Meadows Sales sold a $775,000 Quality Road colt earlier in the sale, went to $400,000 to acquire a filly by Malibu Moon (hip 1934) from the Warrendale Sales consignment Saturday at Keeneland.

“Everything,” Dobson said with a laugh when asked what he liked about the yearling. “She is just the type that will ultimately hopefully come home to join the broodmare band and make really nice babies. That’s the plan anyway.”

The chestnut filly is out of Rosy Humor (Distorted Humor) and is a full-sister to multiple graded stakes winner Stanford and a half to multiple graded placed Hedge Fund (Super Saver). She was bred by Ron Stolich, who purchased the mare in foal to Orb for $225,000 at the 2017 Keeneland November sale.

Dobson said he is seeing new faces on the grounds as the September sales heads into Book 4.

“There are a fair number of people here today,” he said. “There looks like there is some new money in the house, which is always encouraging in Book 3. You want the new players to come in and it looks like that’s the case. Hopefully it will continue for the next week or so.”

More Candy for The Avengers

The partnership of SF/Starlight/Madaket, nicknamed The Avengers by trainer Bob Baffert, added a third colt by Twirling Candy to its haul at Keeneland September when SF’s Tom Ryan bid $385,000 to acquire hip 1878 from the Bluegrass Thoroughbred Services consignment Saturday.

“He is a lovely colt,” Ryan said. “He could have been in Book 2. He’s a beautiful physical and he’s by a very good stallion. We are excited about this horse.”

Ryan added that he was still finding plenty of competition for the top lots as the Keeneland sale reached its one-week mark.

“I thought that was a strong price for that horse, but he’s a beautiful colt and we are big fans of Twirling Candy,” he said.

The partnership’s other sons of Twirling Candy purchased this week at Keeneland were hip 1878, also purchased for $385,000, and hip 1175, acquired for $130,000.

The yearling, bred by Jeffrey Amling and Merriefield Farm, is out of My Own Story. Campaigned by Diane Perkins’s Wimborne Farm, she is the dam of graded stakes winner Real Story (Fast Bullet) and stakes winner My Afleet (Afleet Alex).

“We had 11 scopes on the horse, so we knew he was really popular, but you never know what they are going to bring. We didn’t think he’d bring that much,” admitted John Stuart of Bluegrass Thoroughbred Services. “You never know until you lead them in there.”

Of the yearling’s placement in Book 3, Stuart added, “He could have been a Book 2, but I’ve taken several out of that mare to the sales before and I’ve never been able to sell one. But now that she’s had two really good horses, it makes a difference. I bought that mare off Mrs. Perkins for about $60,000 off the racetrack. Boy, what a good producer she’s been.”

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Fasig-Tipton Selected Yearling Showcase Kicks Off Wednesday

With the Fasig-Tipton July Yearling Sale, Saratoga Selected Yearling Sale and New York-Bred Yearling Sale all canceled, the sale’s company offers a combination of all three auctions Sept. 9-10 at Newtown Paddocks in Lexington, Kentucky, in the Fasig-Tipton Selected Yearlings Showcase.

“It was a situation where we had to develop alternatives as it became apparent that the July Sale could not be conducted,” Fasig-Tipton President Boyd Browning said. “At about the same time, it also became apparent it would be very, very difficult, if not impossible, to have a traditional sale in Saratoga. We believe this format is the best alternative and we have been positively received by consignors, who have supported us with really good horses. 2020 has been a year of adaptation and a year of making the best of the cards you are dealt. I think we have done a good job of that, but we fell good about the quality of horses and the reception we have gotten from buyers so far as well.”

In addition to the revised format, sale attendees will also encounter a series of new protocols at Fasig-Tipton in-keeping with the recommended COVID-19 guidelines. Attendance at the sale will be limited and all interested parties must apply for a credential on the Virtual Badge smart phone app.

“There will be reduced capacity in the pavilion and temperature screening to gain access to the grounds,” said Browning. “Access will be limited and everyone has to apply for the virtual badge to gain access. Everyone, but the buyers, have to have a negative COVID-19 test. We have to wipe down the common area spaces, wear face shields in the sales office, modify food service. We have also put up two large tents to create more outdoor spaces to make people feel more comfortable. We have internet bidding and increased phone bidding.”

The Selected Yearlings Showcase catalogue is comprised of 662 yearlings, the first 178 of which are New York-breds. Selling begins at 10 a.m. Sept. 9 with hips 1-330 and continues Sept. 10 with hips 331-662.

Stallions represented in the catalogue include American Pharoah, Candy Ride (Arg), Constitution, Curlin, the late Empire Maker, Into Mischief, Malibu Moon, Medaglia d’Oro, Nyquist, Quality Road and Uncle Mo. There will also be yearlings on offer from the first crop of several exciting young stallions, such as the late Arrogate, Classic Empire, Connect, Cupid, Gun Runner, Lord Nelson, Mastery, Mohaymen and Practical Joke.

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