yearling sales | Horse Racing Free Tips

LTBA To Host October Yearling/Mixed Sale

The Louisiana Thoroughbred Breeders Association's Breeders Sales Company of Louisiana will be holding a Yearling Sale followed by a Mixed Session Oct. 2, 2021 at the Equine Sales of Louisiana Facility in Opelousas, La. Consignment forms will be in the mail and online here shortly.

“With the Equine Sales Company deciding not to conduct any sales in 2021 the Louisiana Thoroughbred Breeders Association's Board of Directors felt it was necessary to serve our breeders and provide a market for their horses,” the LTBA said in a press release. “We look forward to your entries and anticipate a successful sale.”

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Sales Resilient, But Overall Profitability Suffers Amid Pandemic

In March and April, the bloodstock sales world stood on the precipice, or so it seemed, as the Inglis Easter Yearling Sale–the first major international auction to confront the social upheaval of COVID-19–was put under severe pressure. In the event, team Inglis rose to the challenge and showed a potential way forward for other sales houses with its innovative virtual sale. It didn’t, however, escape completely unscathed, and trepidation remained high for those with horses to sell all over the Northern Hemisphere.

Six months on, we can now report that the sales went ahead–not all in their chosen venues and dates and not all with their original lineups–but horses were sold nonetheless, cash flowed so that bills will get paid and future investment funds will be found.

Remarkably, Europe’s five big yearling auctions–Arqana, Doncaster Premier, Goffs Orby and Tatts Books 1 and 2–ended up with an average price just over 14% behind where it was 12 months ago. In essence, prices in 2020 are still ahead of where they were as recently as 2015. It’s a truly miraculous turn of events considering what we thought we faced six months ago.

It wasn’t good news for everyone, though. Confidence didn’t really return until Tattersalls staged their annual yearling sale during the first two full weeks in October. By then, both the Goffs Orby and Doncaster Premier Sales–shorn of some of their big investors and with the distinct disadvantage of having to change venue and open the calendar, respectively–had suffered sizeable setbacks, their averages shrinking by 35% and 27% respectively, while their clearance rates fell by about five percentage points. And although Arqana didn’t suffer quite so badly–its average 11% shy of last year’s figure–it was really Tattersalls that saved the 2020 European yearling market. Its Book 1 provided a gloss at the elite end, but it was Book 2 that really led the recovery that spilled over into Book 3.

Tattersall Book 1 was the place to sell if your yearling was among the top 45 to 50 at the sale. For this group, the average was down only 3%, but for the next two sets of 45-50 yearlings the average fell away markedly by 19% and 25%, respectively. In fact, it was so tough lower down the order at Book 1 that there will be plenty who wished their yearling had been in Book 2. For starters, Book 2 recorded a higher clearance rate–85.3% to 84.9%–than last year. Then there’s the fact that its top three deciles (225 yearlings) were down by only 4%, 1% and 6%, respectively. And for the rest of the sale, reversals in average were for the most part kept below 10% giving Book 2 an overall average just 3% behind last year’s sale.

But we cannot just talk about the elite market. So many commercial yearlings are produced these days that many spill over into other less lucrative auctions. It is interesting to note for instance that in a normal year 76% of all yearlings sold by sub-20k stallions in Europe are auctioned outside the five main sales. Even the 20k-plus stallions have significant numbers (31%) of their yearlings sold at the non-elite sales. No one yet knows what the final implications for the yearling and nominations market will be. It looks like we will have to wait until January before we get a complete and accurate sales picture.

Even before COVID-19 arrived on the scene, there was pressure on profitability building within the European yearling market. It’s not that stallion studs have individually been hiking fees recently; it’s the fact that the number of high-priced stallions on European rosters in the past six years is at an all-time high. Ten years ago only 13 of the top 30 stallions in Britain and Ireland assessed by book quality stood at £20,000/€20,000 or more. By 2019 that number had risen to 22 out of 30. The cheapest fee of the top 30 stallions in 2009 was £15,000 and by 2019 it had risen to £30,000.

To illustrate the point, we can use the elite European Sales. In 2018, 2,111 yearlings were sold at these five sales and 67% made enough to cover their sire’s advertised fee, plus £20,000 in production costs. A year later, the 2,133 yearlings sold included 65% that were profitable by the same criteria – down two percentage points. This year, whilst it is excellent news that as many as 1,973 found new homes from the five sales, the margins were squeezed so much that only 58% cleared the advertised-fee-plus-£20k hurdle. We can, of course, lay most of the blame for this seven-point drop on the COVID-19 disruption, but there’s a good chance that the number would have been down anyway.

There have been precious few silver linings to the COVID-19 cloud. For the bloodstock industry, it will surely hasten a fundamental review of the supply and demand of commercial young stock over the next few years, with implications for everyone in connected markets.

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What To Look For In A Weanling-To-Yearling Pinhook, With BTE Stables’ Erin O’Keefe

On the surface, the goal of pinhooking is quite simple, to make money. Beyond that, I think everyone would agree that it's to make as much money as possible.

Each year prior to purchasing, I look at the pinhooking statistics from the previous year to see what the market trends are for the most profitable purchase point – by percentage, as well as dollars of profit.

It's great to double your money, but if you bought a horse for $5,000 and sold it for $10,000, it's unlikely you even covered your carry costs. On the opposite end of the spectrum, you'd love to make $60,000, but if you spent $400,000 and sold for $460,000 most of your “profit” is spent on commissions.

I seek to purchase in the sweet spot that's most likely to maximize actual profit. While a home run is a home run from any price point, it's key to mitigate risk as much as possible. Nobody anticipated the events of 2020, but a pragmatic approach allowed for profitable pinhooking.

To achieve these goals, certain compromises are sometimes required. If I'm looking to acquire a more physically precocious weanling, that likely means compromising on sire power. This formula can be successful, particularly when staying strict within a budget. Likewise, if I'm rounding out the group with a more commercial pedigree, that may mean compromising on something like size or vetting.

When narrowing from over 1,000 weanlings, the veterinarian you work with is key. A clear understanding of what can be helped, and what won't improve, allows for quick decisions and confident purchases.

Beyond the compromises that sometimes must be made, the main thing I look for is what I can improve.

In order to sell profitably, you must have done something to improve the “product” you're presenting. It's always a goal to have a pedigree update that improves the value, but those aspects are outside of your control as soon as the hammer falls and the horse is yours.

The physical improvement of the weanling to its yearling sale is a multifaceted process that can be influenced in many ways. At BTE Stables, we're fortunate to have resources to cater to the individual horse throughout the year it's with us prior to the yearling sale.

From a TheraPlate to a full spectrum of turnout sizes to individually-crafted feed protocols, we're able to craft care to allow for maximum improvement. From the time the weanlings set foot on the farm to the time they head to the sale, they are treated as individuals and assessed continually. The same horse will have a different outcome based on where it was raised and prepped, and that's something crucial to keep in mind during the selection process.

Erin O'Keefe is a partner in BTE Stables, in charge of farm management and bloodstock services. Originally from the suburbs of Detroit, Mich., she moved to Lexington, Ky. to attend the University of Kentucky's Equine Science and Management program. A lifelong fan of Thoroughbred racing, she immersed herself in the industry, working for many prestigious farms in the Bluegrass prior to launching BTE Stables in 2019 with partner Daniel Schmidt. Learn more about BTE Stables here.

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Fasig-Tipton October Sale Concludes

LEXINGTON, KY – The Fasig-Tipton Kentucky October Yearlings Sale–and the yearling sales season–concluded Thursday in Lexington with the market continuing to show resilience despite a plethora of worldwide uncertainties.

Through four sessions, 961 yearlings grossed $32,743,700. The average of $34,073 was down 10.2% from last year’s sale-record mark of $37,955. The median of $15,000 rose 15.4% from the 2019 figure of $13,000. With 265 horses reported not sold, the buy-back rate was 21.6%. It was 24.5% a year ago.

“All in all, I think it has to be considered a successful week,” said Fasig-Tipton President Boyd Browning Thursday evening. “If someone would have told me at the beginning of the week, or the beginning of the month, or certainly three months ago that the average would be down 10% and the median would be up 15% and the RNA rate would decline, I would have signed up for that immediately with no hesitation whatsoever. It was a legitimate market for four days. The buyers who were trying to buy the perceived better type horses said it was very difficult to buy. There was lots of competition for those horses. We are not going to sit here and say everything is lovely. Anytime a sale has a median of $15,000, it’s tough to make money. The economics of raising a yearling means there were a lot of unprofitable yearlings in this sale. But I think that’s been the case for several years.”

Through four sessions, Fasig-Tipton sold 76 horses via internet bids for approximately $2.5 million.

Brian Graves of Gainesway, which consigned two of the five yearlings to sell for $200,000 or over during Thursday’s session, said polarization was a continuing reality in the marketplace.

“It’s thin and everything has to be perfect,” Graves said. “You have to have a really good physical, you have to have a little sire power and you have to have a clean vet. And if you have those three things, you can get a fair to a good price for your horse. Everything else is very thin and shaky and there just isn’t any flexibility after that. Really it’s a free fall after that at this point in time with all the uncertainty and the COVID situation only makes it worse.”

Still, buyers were there for the perceived quality offerings.

Bloodstock agent Mike Ryan, who made Thursday’s highest bid when going to $310,000 to acquire a son of Classic Empire, said, “It’s a lot of work because it’s so spread out–1,500 horses over four days–but you do find some nice horses who missed earlier sales for whatever reason and sometimes a horse who didn’t sell at September comes back here, like that sale-topper yesterday [$600,000 son of Uncle Mo]. He was a beautiful horse. He doubled his price from September to now. It doesn’t happen often, but he was a really good colt. It’s the same old story. If you have a really good horse who vets clean and stands the critique of everybody, you’ll do well.”

Ryan has made almost every stop on the yearling sales scene across the globe, including at Tattersalls and Keeneland.

“I think it’s amazing,” Ryan said of the results he has seen this fall. “I think it just shows you how resilient we are. Thank God that racing resumed back in May because it’s the engine that drives everything. And without racing, we are nothing. But purses have gone back up again in New York, they are back to pre-COVID levels. So it is amazing, but it also very polarized. We just don’t have enough people who want to race a horse, enough people who want to pay $120 a day to want to run one. There are too many middle men, traders, not enough end-users. And that’s a problem, but it’s been remarkable. Who would have thought it? The uncertainty was unnerving and Fasig here in September was good and Keeneland was solid. But it’s the same story. You’ve got to have a nice horse. But that’s the way it is. People aren’t going to pay for average stock. If they like your horse, you’ll be rewarded.”

With the end of the yearling sales season, Ryan said with a smile, “We get a week off and we’ll be back here next Thursday looking at foals and mares.”

Bidding returns to Newtown Paddocks for Fasig-Tipton’s star-studded November sale Nov. 8.

Ryan Strikes for Classic Empire Colt

Bloodstock agent Mike Ryan went to a session-topping $310,000 to secure a son of Classic Empire on behalf of Seth Klarman. The yearling (hip 1398), who will be trained by Chad Brown, is out of Delay of Game (Bernardini) and from the family of graded winner Sanford and champion Johannesburg.

“He’s a really good colt with a lot of Bernardini in him and a beautiful mover,” Ryan said. “He’s a New York-bred which is nice, but I think he is an open-company class horse. I thought he was the best by the sire that I saw this week–one of the best horses I saw this week. I was surprised to have to go that far for him, but we really wanted him.”

Ryan continued, “Hopefully we will see him at Saratoga next year as a 2-year-old. He’s bred to go two turns, but he looks like a horse who will have natural speed and should be able to run in late summer of his 2-year-old year. We’ve had a lot of luck buying for Mr. Klarman and Chad Brown and I told him this was a horse we had to have and let’s try to get him.”

The yearling was consigned by St George Sales on behalf of his breeder, Dan Hayden’s EKQ Stables.

“I’m very happy with the result,” Hayden said. “I’m delighted that a superior judge like Mike Ryan got him also. He’s a lovely straightforward colt with a lovely motion and balance to him. He’s loaded with quality also. I like what I’m seeing from these Classic Empires.”

Hayden purchased Delay of Game, in foal to Street Sense, for $90,000 at the 2017 Keeneland November sale. The mare was bred and consigned by Godolphin.

“The first thing that appealed to me about the mare was her sire, Bernardini,” Hayden said. “The sky is the limit for his broodmares. I spoke with Danny Mulvihill from Darley who were selling her and he said she was solid with no vices. Kiaran McLaughlin, who trained her, also told me that her race record didn’t necessarily reflect her talent. He said she was a runner. It was also very appealing that she had such a deep family going back to Johannesburg and, of course, Pulpit through that great mare Yarn.”

Hayden continued, “Physically she’s a lovely, scopey, old-fashioned laid-back mare that just throws everything into her foals. They have great mental attitudes and are confident animals just like her.”

The mare’s Street Sense filly, now named Spa Ready, sold for $260,000 at last year’s Keeneland September sale. Spa Ready broke her maiden first-time out at Belmont Park for Wise Racing shortly after half-brother RNA’d for $110,000 at last month’s Keeneland September sale.

“The Street Sense filly could walk the pants off anyone and was absolutely bombproof mentally,” Hayden said. “The Classic Empire is the same and the mare has an absolute standout weanling filly by Accelerate.”

Of the yearling’s first trip through the sales ring at Keeneland last month, Hayden said, “I think he just came into the September sale a slight bit immature and just didn’t hit the mark in a slightly nervous market. He has matured well physically in the meantime and Archie St George and his whole team did their usual superb job and here we are. Spa Ready also broke her maiden impressively at Belmont first time out for Chad Brown and looks like she has a promising future. It’s always a help when they end up in the hands of a trainer like Chad.”

Empire Maker Yearlings Prove Popular

Gainesway sent a trio of yearlings, bred on foal shares, by its late sire Empire Maker through the ring at Fasig-Tipton Thursday and came away with three six-figure sales.

“Empire Maker is a super broodmare sire,” Gainesway’s Brian Graves said. “Everybody knows it and that only helps. People would like to have one and their chances to do that are running out.”

Empire Maker, who died in January, is the broodmare sire of 21 graded stakes winners, including Grade I winners Arklow (Arch), Separationofpowers (Candy Ride {Arg}) and Outwork (Uncle Mo), as well as Canadian champion Avie’s Flatter (Flatter).

Bloodstock agent Tonja Terranova went to $200,000 to acquire a colt by the 2003 GI Belmont S. winner (hip 1173). The yearling is out of stakes-placed Bagatelle Park (Speightstown) and was bred in partnership with Dr. H. Steve Conboy.

“The colt was just everything you’d want to see,” Graves said. “He was leggy, he had good balance and a good walk.”

X-Men Racing purchased an Empire Maker filly (hip 1372), also for $200,000. Bred in partnership with Happy Alter, the Florida-bred bay is out of Curlin’s Mistress (Curlin), a full-sister to multiple graded stakes winner Curlin’s Approval and a half to multiple graded-placed ‘TDN Rising Star’ Apologynotaccepted (Fusaichi Pegasus).

Rounding out the trio of six-figure yearlings was hip 1197, a filly out of graded winner Belleski (Polish Number) who was bred in partnership with Thoreau, LLC. Down Neck Stable acquired the bay for $155,000.

“Both the fillies were very good physicals,” Graves said. “Unfortunately these days, if you don’t have that going for you, it’s impossible to get a good result.”

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