Woodbine Mile | Horse Racing Free Tips

Trio of Woodbine Grade I’s Headline Saturday Stakes Action

Three Grade I events, all of which are Breeders' Cup 'Win and You're In' qualifiers, north of the border at Woodbine will take the spotlight among nine graded stakes this Saturday as the racing calendar transitions to fall with all of the major summer meets now wrapped up.

The $1-million GI Ricoh Woodbine Mile serves, along with the Queen's Plate, as the centerpiece of the Woodbine meet, and this year's renewal features an 11-horse field that includes last year's winner Town Cruise (Town Prize), who will be looking to bounce back from three off-the-board finishes following his wire-to-wire score in this race last September. The likely favorite, however, will be Godolphin's Modern Games (Dubawi {Ire}), who returns to America for the first time after his controversial purse-money-only win in last year's GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf.

Trained by Charlie Appleby, who swept the three Grade I's on this card last year, Modern Games started his 3-year-old campaign off with a score in the G1 Emirates Poule d'Essai des Poulains before running third in the G1 Qatar Prix du Jockey Club, fifth in the G1 Haras d'Etreham Prix Jean Prat and second when last seen in the G1 Qatar Sussex S. July 27 at Goodwood.

Appleby doesn't have an entry in this year's GI Natalma S. for juvenile turf fillies, but will be represented by last-out G3 Circus Maximus Prix Francois Boutin hero Mysterious Night (Ire) (Dark Angel {Ire}) in the GI Summer S. Other contenders in that one-mile test for juvenile turf males include Klaravich Stables' Appraise (Ire) (Kodiac {GB}) for Chad Brown and Philip My Dear (Silent Name {Jpn}), who overcame stretch traffic to take the local Soaring Free S. Aug. 20.

Stakes action over the flat at 'Belmont at the Big A' will get underway with the GIII Caesars Jockey Club Derby Invitational and GIII Jockey Club Oaks Invitational for 3-year-old turf males and fillies, respectively. The former features a rubber match between Classic Causeway (Giant's Causeway), who upset the July 9 GI Caesars Belmont Derby Invitational S. and Nations Pride (Ire) (Teofilo {Ire}), who was second that day and exacted revenge when taking the GI Caesars Saratoga Derby Invitational S. Aug. 6 at the Spa. Adding intrigue is progressive German invader Ardakan (GB) (Reliable Man {GB}). Trained by Markus Klug, the gray scored a victory in the G2 Premio Derby Italiano May 22 and was eighth in the G1 German Derby before running third last out with a 111 Timeform Rating against elders in the G1 Grosser Preis von Berlin Aug. 14 at Hoppegarten.

The Jockey Club Oaks also features a hopeful for Germany, Toskana Belle (Fr) (Shamalgan {Fr}), who ships in for legendary German trainer Andreas Wohler. The chestnut, who captured the G1 German Oaks Aug. 7 at Dusseldorf, looks like the only realistic alternative to Klaravich Stables' McKulick (GB) (Frankel {GB}), who annexed the GI Belmont Oaks Invitational S. July 9 before running second in the G3 Saratoga Oaks Invitational S. Aug. 7.

Churchill Downs will host five stakes Saturday, including Kentucky's first two graded events for 2-year-olds in the GIII Iroquois S. and GIII Pocahontas S., which are also the first two-turn graded dirt races for juveniles on the calendar in the U.S. The clear horse to beat in the Pocahontas for fillies is Three Chimneys Farm's Grand Love (Gun Runner), who was an impressive 4 3/4-length debut victress Aug. 21 at Saratoga with an 84 Beyer, nine points higher than the closest figure run by any rival.

The Iroquois looks much more competitive on paper, with undefeated 'TDN Rising Star' Damon's Mound (Girvin), who followed up a 12 1/2-length debut romp with a 3 1/4-length score in the GII Saratoga Special S., clashing with fellow 'Rising Stars' Jace's Road (Quality Road) and Echo Again (Gun Runner), each of whom steps into stakes company after dominant first-out scores last month. Echo Again ran the fastest Beyer of any 2-year-old this summer at Saratoga, receiving a 94 for his 6 3/4-length rout when bet down to 3-5 Aug. 20.

The post Trio of Woodbine Grade I’s Headline Saturday Stakes Action appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

Source of original post

Woodbine Mile Winner Town Cruise Will Be Supplemented To Breeders’ Cup

Owner, trainer, and breeder Brandon Greer has changed his mind, and will pay the $100,000 fee to supplement his Woodbine Mile winner Town Cruise to the Breeders' Cup Mile at Del Mar, reports the Daily Racing Form. The 6-year-old son of Town Prize is not Breeders' Cup nominated, hence the fee, and Greer had originally planned to let the gelding rest for the remainder of 2021.

Instead, Town Cruise has been showing Greer he's ready for more.

“I breezed him the other day, and tried to keep him as slow as possible,” Greer told DRF. “He was a little up that day. You remember when I won the Mile, I'd said I'd have to ask the horse. I stopped asking because two days later he said: 'Let's go again'. I was hoping he'd tell me: 'No I'm good, let's go home for the season', but he was anything but that.”

The winner of three of his four starts this season, Town Cruise has an overall record of 6-2-1 from 14 starts, with earnings of $789,642.

The Odds They Are A Changin’ … At The Last Minute

Dramatic shifts in the win odds of horses just before the close of betting have become an annoying way of life for horseplayers in most major racing jurisdictions in North America. In most – but not all – of those cases, last-minute bets by computer-assisted robotic wagering groups affiliated with licensed off-shore rebate shops are responsible.

The wagering groups employ computer programs that compare win probabilities with current odds, then dump wagers at the last second on those horses whose odds offer perceived value. Similar wagers take place in exotic pools by these computer players.

The bets can cause wild swings in the odds, especially when one or more of those computer wagering teams (there may be a dozen or more of them currently active) land on the same horse or horses. That can be especially annoying if you've bet on a horse at 9-2 while he's in the gate and who then crosses the finish in front at odds of 9-5. Because these computer assisted groups don't always win, sometimes the odds on a winner have gone up at the last minute.

These groups are betting significant amounts of money, as much as one-third of the total pari-mutuel wagering pools.

Computer players don't need to have a positive return on investment to make a profit – an advantage they have over everyday players because of the rebates they receive from off-shore (and some U.S.-based) advance deposit wagering companies. For example, if an on-track player gets a $950,000 return on $1 million in wagers, he or she loses $50,000. A rebate player getting a $950,000 return on $1 million in wagers will break even after a 5% rebate. Most computer players get a larger rebate than that, depending on the jurisdiction and wager type. So even if they aren't winning, they are coming out ahead.

One of the most recent examples of how these computer assisted wagering groups affect the odds came in last Saturday's Grade 1 Ricoh Woodbine Mile, a race won by Town Cruise, a horse with just one previous stakes appearance in 13 starts but with a big advantage: he was the lone speed.

Town Cruise was 23-1 with just over one minute before the start of the race. When betting closed, he was 8-1 and paid $19.30 for a $2 wager, far short of what many backers thought they would get.

Sanny Lee, senior manager of wagering operations for Woodbine, confirmed that a significant percentage of wagers on the race came in during the final 78 seconds before the start of the Woodbine Mile.

In an email to the Paulick Report in response to a question about the late odds shift of Town Cruise, Lee wrote: “We have reviewed all bets placed in the Win pool for Race 10 (Woodbine Mile) from this past Saturday, and we can confirm that in the final 1 minute and 18 sec of betting, the amount bet in the win pool increased by $128,482.26 making up 20% of the total pool for the race ($607,623.89) and bets were placed by most wagering outlets across the network during this time.

“When looking at the odds progression, we see that at 1 min and 18 sec before the race start, horse #1 (Town Cruise) was 23-1, horse #2 (Olympic Runner) was at 16-1, horse #8 (Avie's Flatter) was 31-1 and the favourite #5 (Set Piece) was 6-5. At the start of the race, the final odds changed on these 4 horses to #1 at 8-1, #2 at 9-1, #8 at 17-1 and the favourite #5 increased in odds to 8-5. It appears that compared to prior betting patterns, a relatively significant amount of bets were placed on these 3 horses compared to the other horses, just before the race started.”

The Paulick Report also asked Lee if Woodbine accepted wagers from computer-assisted wagering groups and whether they were responsible for the late odds changes in the Woodbine Mile.

“We can also confirm that we do allow CAW outlets to wager into our pools, and that about half of the $128,482.26 was wagered by CAW in the final 1 min and 18 sec of betting,” Lee wrote.

The New York Racing Association in August said it was restricting computer wagering groups' access to the win pools by cutting them off at three minutes to post. That has reduced big odds swings at the last minute. No other racing associations have announced similar moves.

Lee added that the Paulick Report inquiry and the Woodbine response would be forwarded to the Canadian Pari-Mutuel Agency for review.

Not all late odds changes are the result of computer-assisted wagering groups.

During the summer meet at Del Mar, there were a number of significant late odds changes presumably driven by the computer assisted wagering groups. But in the final race of the meet, there was a curious change in the odds that didn't make a lot of sense.

Algeria, the No. 4 horse was favored at around 2-1 for much of the wagering, then plunged to 2-5 just as horses were loading. He then went back up to 2-1 almost as quickly. The winner of the race, Cane Creek Road, went from 16-1 to 7-1 at the last minute and won by a nose, paying $16.

Paulick Report asked Mike Marten, public information officer for the California Horse Racing Board, about the unusual wagering on that Sept. 6 race.

Here is Marten's written response: “We determined that a known large bettor was on track closing day and made those transactions. The teller recalls the bettor asking for $140,000 to win on the 9. The teller proceeded to punch out tickets in $10,000 increments. Each transaction took about one second. While the teller was issuing the tickets, the bettor checked his bankroll and determined that he had less than $140,000 on him, so he asked the teller to stop and asked the teller to cancel some of the tickets, which the teller did. The detailed transaction report shows that 11 tickets were issued for a total of $110,000 and that five of those tickets were canceled, leaving the customer with $60,000 to win on the 9. The entire process, from the first $10,000 wager to the last cancelation, took a total of 18 seconds, indicating there was no attempt to manipulate the odds/pool. The odds cycle report shows the 9 was under 2-1 for less than one minute.”

[Story Continues Below]

Marten said the CHRB has no rules that pertain directly to cancellations or pool manipulation, adding that the regulatory board does have the authority to deal with such situations.

“More importantly, the racetracks and ADWS are fully cooperative in such matters,” Marten wrote. “This is the third incident I've dealt with involving cancelations. One previous one, like this one, involved an on-track bettor who was known to the teller. We determined on that occasion that there was no attempt to manipulate pools. The third instance involved a quirky ADW customer, again not perceived to be manipulative, just strange. The ADW company spoke with him and that behavior stopped.”

The post The Odds They Are A Changin’ … At The Last Minute appeared first on Horse Racing News | Paulick Report.

Source of original post

Brown Pleased With One-Two Finish For Shantisara, Higher Truth In Jockey Club Oaks

Chad Brown trainees Shantisara and Higher Truth put on a show in Saturday's $700,000 Jockey Club Oaks Invitational with the Irish-bred fillies running one-two in the 11-furlong inner turf test to conclude the Turf Triple series for sophomore fillies at Belmont Park in Elmont, N.Y.

Michael Ryan, Jeff Drown, and Team Hanley's Higher Truth, piloted by Jose Ortiz, set a moderate tempo with Michael Dubb, Madaket Stables, and Robert V. LaPenta's Shantisara stalking outside in second position under Flavien Prat over the firm turf.

Higher Truth kicked on at the top of the lane but could not fend off her stablemate, who earned the half-length score in a final time of 2:16.91.

“It was a really good race and it's a shame one of them had to lose because they both ran their hearts out. I was proud of both of their efforts,” Brown said.

Shantisara, by Coulsty, made her first five starts in France before being transferred to Brown and making her North American debut with a runner-up effort in the Boiling Springs in June at Monmouth Park in Oceanport, N.J. She entered from a convincing three-length score under Prat in the nine-furlong Grade 3 Pucker Up in August at Arlington Park in Arlington Heights, Illinois.

Higher Truth competed in all three legs of the Turf Triple, missing by a half-length when third in the Belmont Oaks, and was a game second, defeated less than a length, in the Saratoga Oaks.

Brown said he would speak with the ownership groups of both horses to see if they want to race once more this season.

Peter Brant and e Five Racing Thoroughbreds' So Enchanting, a 3-year-old daughter of More Than Ready, graduated at fifth asking on the Saturday undercard to improve her record to 5-1-3-1.

With Irad Ortiz, Jr. up, the Kentucky-bred chestnut stalked in fourth position in the 1 1/16-mile turf test before engaging with pacesetter Miss Bonnie T at the eighth pole, taking command in the final sixteenth for a three-quarter length score.

So Enchanting, who was stretching out beyond one mile for the first time, has kept good company through five starts, including runner-up efforts sprinting six furlongs on the Belmont turf to launch her career, finishing in front of eventual stakes winners Bay Storm [on October 3] and Miss Brazil [on October 25].

“We always thought she had plenty of ability,” Brown said. “She stretched out nicely to a mile and a sixteenth which was good to see. She got a great trip yesterday. I was happy for her to break through and get the maiden win out of the way.”

Peter Brant's multiple Grade 1-winner Raging Bull closed to finish third under Frankie Dettori in Saturday's Grade 1 Woodbine Mile at Woodbine Racetrack in Toronto, Ontario, contested over good going on the E. P. Taylor Turf Course.

“He didn't really handle the course. Frankie said he was struggling a little bit on the turn and lost some position there,” Brown said. “I was proud of him that he kicked in again when he got to the center of the track in the stretch. He found some firmer ground and kicked on.”

Raging Bull, a 6-year-old French-bred son of Dark Angel, boasts a record of 21-7-4-4 with purse earnings in excess of $1.6 million.

“If he comes out of it well I'm planning on making the final start of his career in the Breeders' Cup Mile,” Brown said.

Klaravich Stables' Domestic Spending and the Brant-owned Flop Shot breezed five furlongs in 1:00.80 in company Sunday on the Belmont inner turf.

Domestic Spending, a three-time Grade 1 winner, finished second last out in the Grade 1 Mr. D. on August 14 at Arlington Park. Brown said the 4-year-old Kingman gelding is likely to make his next start in the Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Turf in November at Del Mar Thoroughbred Club in Del Mar, Calif.

“They went fine. It was a good work for both of them,” Brown said.

Flop Shot, a 5-year-old son of New Approach, won the 2019 Group 3 Prix de Guiche in France for his former conditioner Andre Fabre. He last raced in June 2020, finishing fifth in the Grade 2 Fort Marcy.

Brown said Flop Shot was gelded earlier this year and is close to a return to action.

Jim Bakke and Gerald Isbister's impressive maiden winner Jack Christopher breezed five-eighths in company in 1:01.05 Saturday on the main track in preparation for the $500,000 Grade 1 Champagne, a one-turn mile offering a “Win and You're In” berth to the Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Juvenile.

The Munnings chestnut, purchased for $135,000 at the Fasig-Tipton Kentucky Fall Yearling Sale, registered a 92 Beyer for a romping 8 3/4-length score on debut in a six-furlong maiden special weight on August 28 at Saratoga.

“He went well in company with a maiden. He's done everything right and settled into Belmont nicely,” Brown said.

Brown said the added distance shouldn't be an issue for the talented chestnut.

“It's still just one turn, so I think he'll be OK. I like the way he's training,” Brown said.

[Story Continues Below]

Peter Brant and Robert V. LaPenta's graded-stakes placed Miles D breezed a bullet half-mile in :47.84 Saturday in Saratoga on the Oklahoma dirt training track.

A maiden winner in June at Belmont, the Curlin sophomore followed with a runner-up effort to Dynamic One in the nine-furlong Curlin and was third last out in the Grade 1 Runhappy Travers.

Brown said Miles D will not start in next weekend's Grade 1 Pennsylvania Derby and that he will look for other options.

“I'm not sure what I'm going to do with him yet. I'd like to give him a little bit more time,” Brown said.

Klaravich Stables' Public Sector worked a half-mile in :49.12 Saturday on the Oklahoma dirt training track. Brown said the Kingman sophomore, who won the Grade 2 National Museum of Racing Hall of Fame and the Grade 3 Saranac at the Spa this summer, is probable for the $400,000 Grade 2 Hill Prince, a nine-furlong turf test for 3-year-olds on October 23.

W.S. Farish homebred Royal Flag, a 5-year-old multiple graded-stakes winning daughter of Candy Ride, worked a half-mile in :48.70 Saturday on the Oklahoma dirt training track.

Royal Flag won the Grade 3 Shuvee in July and closed to finish third in the Grade 1 Personal Ensign in August this summer at the Spa.

Brown said the chestnut, who sports a ledger of 11-5-3-2 with purse earnings of $435,520, will point to either the $250,000 Grade 2 Beldame on October 10 at Belmont or the Grade 1 Spinster on October 10 at Keeneland Race Course in Lexington, Ky., which offers a “Win and You're In” berth to the Breeders' Cup Distaff.

“This will be her last year of running. She's at the top of her game right now as a 5-year-old,” Brown said. “It would be nice to get her a Grade 1.”

The post Brown Pleased With One-Two Finish For Shantisara, Higher Truth In Jockey Club Oaks appeared first on Horse Racing News | Paulick Report.

Source of original post