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Stallion-Making Potential For Improbable and Promises Fulfilled

When considering stallion potential, brilliance and precocity are rarely left out of the equation. But a unique find emerges when a headlining juvenile can carry out his talent as a sophomore and even as an older horse before beginning his stud career.

Two of WinStar Farm’s new recruits for 2021, Improbable (City Zip) and Promises Fulfilled (Shackleford), showed brilliance early on in their careers as flashy debut winners before each went on to become stakes winners at three and four.

We spoke with WinStar’s David Hanley on the pair of Grade I-winning additions.

Improbable (City Zip), $40,000

“The thing that was so impressive about this horse was his soundness,” Hanley said of four-time Grade I winner and Eclipse candidate Improbable. “From when he went to Bob Baffert as a 2-year-old, he never missed a day, never had an issue. He was so consistent. Every week you asked how he worked and Bob’s response was, ‘awesome.'”

In his 15 career starts over three years, Improbable ran in the money in all but four.

“I think that soundness is really important for his future as a sire because in the world we live in today, soundness is such a factor,” Hanley said. “This horse with his mechanics, the way he moved and how sound he was, if he passes that on to his progeny, it gives him a great shot to have a lot of runners.”

A $200,000 Keeneland September purchase, Improbable was a debut winner for the same owner-trainer connections that campaigned another speedy chestnut in Triple Crown winner Justify (Scat Daddy). He followed up with a 7 1/4-length victory in the Street Sense S. on the 2018 Breeders’ Cup undercard while earning a ‘TDN Rising Star’ nod.

He wrapped up his 2-year-old season with a win in the GI Los Alamitos Futurity, defeating eventual Grade I-winning stablemate Mucho Gusto (Mucho Macho Man) by five lengths.

“He ran that race in the fastest time of the previous 10 years,” Hanley noted. “He really was a top-class 2-year-old and always showed that. From when we broke him in the spring, he just had it together.”

From there, Improbable ran second in the GII Rebel S. and again in the GI Arkansas Derby behind Omaha Beach (War Front).

He finished fourth in the GI Kentucky Derby, and although he registered a victory in the Shared Belief S. at Del Mar’s summer meet, the chestnut couldn’t land a graded stakes win in the later half of his 3-year-old year.

“I think after going through the Derby, he got a little bit frazzled and kind of lost his way a bit through the rest of his 3-year-old season,” Hanley admitted. “He got very fired up in the gate and was running his races very hard on the bridle and not settling. But then as a 4-year-old when he got back to Bob in the spring, suddenly he was working a bit more relaxed. He was working unbelievably and showed it on the racetrack when he won three straight Grade I races with 105, 106 and 108 Beyers.”

Hanley notes Improbable’s 4 1/2-length win over barnmate and champion Maximum Security (New Year’s Day) in the GI Awesome Again S. as his strongest race of the Grade I trio.

“When Drayden Van Dyke took hold of him and he got on the bridle and let him run, he just exploded. I think that was a really super impressive performance.”

Equally as memorable was his two-length victory in last summer’s GI Whitney S.

“He was always in control of that race,” Hanley said. “He traveled easily just off the pace and when Irad [Ortiz] took the lead, he just drove off from there.”

While Improbable ran second behind Authentic (Into Mischief) in his final career start in the GI Breeders’ Cup Classic, he earned a 108 Beyer and a 2 Ragozin, the fastest of the race, while traveling over six lengths farther than the winner.

Improbable retired with earnings of over $2.7 million as the leading earner for his sire City Zip, who passed away when Improbable was a yearling.

“City Zip was a wonderful sire,” Hanley said. “He sired 72 stakes winners, six champions, and was a wonderful racehorse himself. So I think that’s a sire line that’s going to produce some good stallions.”

Improbable is a son of the winning A.P. Indy mare Rare Event, whose stakes-winning dam Our Rite of Spring (Stavinsky) is a half-sister to Grade I winner and sire Hard Spun (Danzig).

“City Zip was by Carson City, who was out of a Blushing Groom mare. Interestingly, Our Rite of Spring is by Stravinsky, who is also out of a Blushing Groom mare. So I think that’s huge sire-making pedigree potential,” Hanley said.

With other top sires in Awesome Again, Giant’s Causeway and Candy Ride (Arg) hailing from the Blushing Groom line on their damside, Hanley said he believes with Blushing Groom on both Improbable’s top and bottom side, his pedigree shows a unqiue potential.

“He’s also out of a really deep Darby Dan family,” he added. “He comes from one of their great foundation mares Banquet Bell, who herself was the dam of a Kentucky Derby and Belmont S. winner and a champion.”

Already booked to 160 mares for this season, Improbable has been popular with the breeders.

“He is what I would consider a medium-sized horse,” Hanley said. “He’s tremendously well made. He’s got great length from his hip to his hock and great leverage behind. He really hits the ground, as Drayden Van Dyke said, ‘like a cloud.'”

From the beginning, Hanley says, Improbable’s most noticeable quality was his exceptional movement–an asset that has proven to be useful in attracting a strong book of mares for his initial season at stud.

“From the first few times we worked him on the farm as a

2-year-old, he would breeze a quarter and then just gallop around the track like there was no end to him,” Hanley said. “He had great motion and everything came easy to him. As Bob Baffert said, he’s one of the prettiest-moving horses you could ever see and I think that’s something that’s going to stand him in good stead if he can produce that in his foals.”

Promises Fulfilled (Shackleford), $10,000

“I think his trademark was how genuine he was,” Hanley said of five-time graded stakes winner Promises Fulfilled. “He would go as fast as he could and when the other horses would come to him, he would bear down and give everything he had. He would drop down and stick his head out and give his all every time.”

Recruited and trained by Dale Romans for Robert Baron, Promises Fulfilled was a four-length debut winner at two before taking an allowance at Keeneland and running third in the GII Kentucky Jockey Club S. to wrap up his juvenile season.

He continued on the Derby trail at three with a victory in the GII Fountain of Youth S., breaking first and never giving up the lead to defeat Strike Power (Speightstown) and champion Good Magic (Curlin) by 2 1/4 lengths.

The speedy chestnut broke on top in his next two starts, clocking a :45.77 half mile going head-to-head with Justify (Scat Daddy) in the GI Kentucky Derby, but failed to stay on to finish in the money.

He realized his full potential after turning back in distance in the later half of his 3-year-old season with consecutive wins in the GIII Amsterdam S., GI H. Allen Jerkens S. and GII Phoenix S.

“It was quite an amazing performance to go through what he did in the spring trying to stretch out and then come back and be as competitive as he was,” Hanley said. “That was the period of time when we started to think he was a really serious horse.”

A win the following summer in the GII John Nerud S. with a career-high 108 Beyer sealed the deal, and WinStar bought in on the millionaire earner soon after.

“He was very fast out of the gates, always on pace and really let himself down in his races to finish up strong,” Hanley said. “He ran six sub-:44.4 times in graded races.”

After a layoff following his 4-year-old season, an issue days before his next start kept Promises Fulfilled from racing on at five in 2020.

“It was kind of unfortunate because he was a year from running when he went to stud, so people are quick to forget just how good of a 3-year-old he was,” Hanley said. “But we’re really excited about him because we think he was a horse with a lot of speed and ability.”

Promises Fulfilled retired with earnings of nearly $1.5 million and ran in the money in 10 of his 17 career starts.

“One thing that I think marks this horse’s character is that fact that he was able to go through the Kentucky Derby preps, run in the Kentucky Derby and then come back and win a Grade I going seven furlongs. It speaks to the character and quality of horse that he was.”

Hanley noted that breeders have been surprised that the sprinter’s physical reflects more of a two-turn type mold.

“He’s quite a big horse, with a lot of leg under him and a lot of stretch to him,” he said. “So it’s interesting that he was as fast as he was. We’re really excited to see what kind of foals he’ll produce because with his pedigree, speed and physique, he’s capable of getting two-turn horses that have some speed.”

The son of Shackleford is out of the Marquetry mare Marquee Delivery, who herself is Grade III placed but is also the dam of three additional black-type horses. Promises Fulfilled’s half-sister Marquee Miss (Cowboy Cal) was a five-time stakes winner.

“Shackleford was by Forestry (Storm Cat), so it’s a speed sire line,” Hanley said. “Shackleford himself was out of the mare Oatsee, who is by Unbridled. So you can see where Shackleford got his leg and size, and where Promises Fulfilled got it as well.”

He continued, “I think he’ll put a bit of size and stretch into his mares. He could fit anything. He was such a fast horse, and he did win going a mile and a sixteenth and looks like a two-turn horse, so anything is possible.”

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Global Campaign and Tom’s d’Etat at WinStar Farm

With 18 stallions already standing at stud, WinStar Farm already had one of the largest stallion rosters in Kentucky, but they will be busier than ever in 2021 after having welcomed five new recruits for the upcoming season. Laoban (Uncle Mo) will stand his first year in Kentucky after becoming a Grade I-producing sire this year, while Grade I winners Improbable (City Zip) and Promises Fulfilled (Shackleford) will start off their career at the Versailles farm.

Today, we speak with WinStar’s General Manager Dave Hanley on Global Campaign (Curlin) and Tom’s d’Etat (Smart Strike), who round out the list of new additions and who both rank among the top earners for their respective trainers.

Tom’s d’Etat (Smart Strike), $17,500

While it would be difficult to top the career of Horse of the Year Blame, Tom’s d’Etat comes close as trainer Al Stall Jr.’s next-highest earning Grade I winner.

“You could tell by listening to Al that he had really high regard for Tom’s d’Etat,” Hanley said. “He’s the coolest horse to be around. Really laid back with the most beautiful head and demeanor about him. I think he’s got a lot of class. You know, Al had trained Blame, but you could tell Al really loved this horse.”

Tom’s d’Etat was a $330,000 Keeneland September buy for Gayle Benson’s G M B Racing. From the family of top sire Candy Ride (Arg), the SF Bloodstock-bred son of Smart Strike is out of stakes winner and Grade III-placed Julia Tuttle (Giant’s Causeway).

“Being by a sire that’s a proven sire of sires and having a sire like Candy Ride in his pedigree is quite extraordinary,” Hanley said. “What’s interesting about his pedigree is his dam is by Giant’s Causeway, who was out of a Rahy mare. Rahy is by Blushing Groom (Fr) and Candy Ride’s broodmare sire is also by Blushing Groom. Northern Dancer on top of Blushing Groom gives you sires like Awesome Again, who is out of a Blushing Groom mare. Carson City was also out of a Blushing Groom mare and was obviously the sire of City Zip. So it’s a very strong sire-making cross.”

Hanley said that in terms of conformation, Tom’s d’Etat is a reflection of both Smart Strike and Candy Ride.

“He’s put together much like his sire and also has a little bit of Candy Ride in his make and shape,” he said. “He’s a beautifully balanced horse in that everything works for him. He’s got great use of his shoulders and carries his head and neck in a good position. He’s a beautiful mover and really opens his shoulder when he moves. His mechanics work really well and when he’s galloping, you can see what good use he has of himself.”

On the track, Tom’s d’Etat broke his maiden at Saratoga as a sophomore before adding four more wins in optional claimers at four and five. Stepping up into stakes company, he won the Tenacious S. at Fair Grounds to cap off his 5-year-old season.

After running second to four-time Grade I winner McKinzie (Street Sense) in the GII Alysheba S., the fleet-footed bay added the Alydar S. at Saratoga to his resume last summer as he reached top form. WinStar started to take notice of the stallion prospect.

“From May of 2019 to August of 2020 he ran nine-straight triple digit Beyers,” Hanley said. “He was such a dominant racehorse and was so talented, he really took our attention.”

His next win came in the GII Hagyard Fayette S. at Keeneland, his first graded stakes success, followed by his signature Grade I victory in the Clark S.

“His win in the Clark was another example of one of his dominating performances,” Hanley said. “He sat mid-division and then made an unbelievable move. He didn’t just go to the front, he flew.”

After defeating Improbable (City Zip) in the Oaklawn Mile S., Tom’s d’Etat added another win in the GII Stephen Foster S. where he earned a career-best 109 Beyer and just missed the track record by 0.02 seconds.

“It was quite a brilliant performance,” Hanley recalled. “Actually, he was eased down that day. Had they ridden him to the line, he might have even broken the track record.”

After two troubled trips in the latter half of his 2020 season in the GI Whitney S., where he still fought to finish third, and the GI Breeders’ Cup Classic, Tom’s d’Etat retired with earnings of over $1.76 million, having run in the money in all but five of his 20 starts.

Hanley said that their team is not at all phased that Tom’s d’Etat retires at the age of seven. It’s not their first time retiring older horses to stud.

“Some people are against that or think it’s a disadvantage to him,” Hanley said. “But you know, we’ve had two very good horses go through our stud barn here in Speightstown and Distorted Humor that both came to stud at age six and stood their first year as 7-year-olds. So, it doesn’t bother us at all. I think he’s going to be a good stallion regardless. Tom’s d’Etat’s pedigree is really stacked with sire-making potential. We’re going to support him really well together with our shareholders like Fred Hertrich, Siena Farm and Taylor Made. We really believe in his chance of becoming a top stallion.”

Global Campaign (Curlin), $12,500

Big names jumped off Global Campaign’s pedigree from the start with the likes of his half-brother, dual Grade I winner Bolt d’Oro (Medaglia d’Oro), as well as another stakes-winning half-brother in Sonic Mule (Distorted Humor). His family also includes ‘TDN Rising Star’ Recruiting Ready (Algorithms), plus three-time Grade I winner and sire Zensational (Unbridled’s Song).

“Global Campaign is probably the best-bred son of Curlin,” Hanley said. “He’s a very good-looking horse for his sire line. He has very clean lines and is a smooth horse. He’s beautifully made, very well proportioned and is a really good mover. It’s hard to fault him. He’s a really exceptional physical.”

The WinStar-bred was a $250,000 Keeneland September purchase for Sagamore Farm and was given to trainer Stanley Hough to race in partnership with WinStar.

“About a month before the September Sale, he got a bang on his knee that fired up physitis in the knee,” Hanley said. “So going into the sale, I think that took a number of people off him. But we really liked him and were anxious to stay in for a piece. Stanley Hough and Hunter Rankin were very gracious to allow us to do that.”

Global Campaign was sent to Ocala Stud to undergo training, and Hanley said he remembers visiting the youngster.

“Elliott [Walden] and I went down in the spring of his 2-year-old year and they were already excited about him,” he said. “He was starting to separate himself from the others and they thought he was one of the nicest horses they had down there. He was a beautiful mover, a very positive horse in his work, and looked like he was going to be something.”

In January of his sophomore season, the colt turned heads on debut when he broke his maiden by almost six lengths and then earned ‘Rising Star’ status in his next start. Later in the season, he defeated eventual GI Belmont S. winner Sir Winston (Awesome Again) in the GIII Peter Pan S. followed by a third-place effort in the GII Jim Dandy S.

“Unfortunately in that race, he grabbed himself coming out of the gate and took a chunk out of his heel,” Hanley relayed.

After a nine-month layoff, the bay returned with a victory at four in a Gulfstream optional claimer before stepping back into graded stakes company and taking the GIII Monmouth Cup S.

“He made the running and had his ears pricked in front,” Hanley recalled. “The other horse, Bal Harbour (First Samurai), went to go by him and he just rallied and put the race away. He was the kind of horse that I think always ran with a bit more in the tank than you saw. He’s a horse that liked to get on the front end, relax, and could finish up really well.”

Global Campaign made his Grade I debut this summer in the Woodward H., breaking first and never looking back to defeat the likes of Grade I winner Math Wizard (Algorithms) and multiple graded stakes winner Tacitus (Tapit).

He earned a career-best 106 Beyer in his final start this year, fighting to place third after a troubled start in the GI Breeders’ Cup Classic behind Horse of the Year favorite Authentic (Into Mischief) and fellow WinStar studmate Improbable.

Hanley spoke about the meaning the horse had for his connections in taking co-owner Sagamore Farm on their probable final trip to the Breeders’ Cup as they phase out of racing and becoming trainer Stanley Hough’s leading earner.

“It was really nice for Sagamore to have a really good horse like him as they get out of the business,” he said. “Both Hunter Rankin and Stanley Hough did a marvelous job managing the horse. Stanley is a real all-time horseman and you could tell being around him how excited he was about this horse.”

While WinStar had initially announced that they were considering pointing the Grade I winner towards the GI Pegasus World Cup Invitational S., they later decided that he would not resume training following the Breeders’ Cup.

“When we took him back to the farm, he was going down so well with the breeders and looked so good,” Hanley said. “We’re very happy that he’s here. He’s been very, very popular. I think he’s already booked to 80 mares and people really like him.”

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Taking Stock: Nashville, Charlatan, and Speightstown

Speightstown (Gone West)’s highly promising 3-year-old colts Nashville and Charlatan are set to square off in the Gl Malibu S. over seven furlongs on opening day at Santa Anita Dec. 26, and the race already has the feel of an anticipated prize fight to it, all the way down to their respective heavyweight connections, who were once together on the same team that celebrated Justify (Scat Daddy)’s Triple Crown. But an important focus of this race belongs to their top-class sire, himself a champion sprinter, because it’s quite a feat for a stallion to get two colts of this caliber in the same crop, forgetting for the moment that Grade l-winning sprinter Echo Town, recently retired to Ashford Stud, is also a member.

In brief careers, Nashville, bred by Breffni Farm and out of Veronique, by Mizzen Mast; and Charlatan, bred by Stonestreet and from the Quiet American mare Authenticity, have been utterly brilliant to date, and there hasn’t been a horse that’s finished in front of either one. Neither, however, is officially (or “recognized as”) a graded winner yet, and it is December already. Keep that in mind as you read on, and note that Speightstown didn’t become a black-type winner until he was six.

Trained by Steve Asmussen, Nashville is undefeated in three starts. He made an eye-opening ‘TDN Rising Star’ debut in early September at Saratoga, winning a 6 1/2-furlong maiden special in 1:14.48 (six furlongs in 1:07.92) by 11 1/2 lengths. That race was followed in October by a 9 3/4-length romp in a NW2L allowance at Keeneland in 1:09.10, which appeared downright modest next to his last start at the same track on the Breeders’ Cup undercard. He won the Listed Perryville S. easy as pie by 3 1/2 lengths in 1:07.89, geared down from some ways out. For context, Whitmore (Pleasantly Perfect) won the Gl Breeders’ Cup Sprint later that day by about the same margin in a driving finish in 1:08.61.

Like Nashville, Charlatan was a debuting ‘TDN Rising Star,’ winning a Santa Anita maiden special for Bob Baffert by 5 3/4 lengths in 1:08.85 in February. Stretched to a mile in an AOC next out at the same track in March, Charlatan won so impressively by 10 1/4 lengths that he was promptly put on the Triple Crown trail by the trainer of the last two Triple Crown winners, who’d followed an almost identical path with Justify to that point. Then the pandemic struck.

In a normal year, Baffert would have used a graded prep in April, as he did with Justify, to set up the trip to Louisville for the first Saturday in May, but he didn’t have to rush this year with a skewered Classic schedule that began with the Gl Belmont S. in June, followed by the Derby in September and the Gl Preakness S. in October. And though his stable was at the time loaded with talents such as Nadal (Blame) and Authentic (Into Mischief), Charlatan appeared to be his favorite, the one he waxed the most lyrical about in talent and physique.

Charlatan’s most recent start confirmed that view. Baffert sent both Nadal and Charlatan to Hot Springs for split divisions of Oaklawn’s Gl Arkansas Derby over nine furlongs in May, and though Nadal won his race in slightly faster time, Charlatan’s score by six lengths was the more visually impressive of the two and the one that conjured the Classic imagery of Justify. Unfortunately, Charlatan was since disqualified from the race for a medication violation, and he didn’t make the Classics after a flake in an ankle was subsequently discovered and removed.

The Malibu is his chance for redemption, which adds to the intriguing storyline for a prestigious race that not only pits Baffert again Asmussen–two top trainers that at one time or another have been publicly vilified for medication and welfare reasons–but also the principal ownership interests of the two colts against the other.

Connections

The principals in this match are WinStar and SF Bloodstock, two of the most formidable players in the game at the moment, and both are major shareholders in Speightstown, who is soon to be 23 and stands at WinStar for $90,000 S&N in 2021.

CHC, INC. (formerly known as China Horse Club) and WinStar purchased Nashville for $460,000 at Keeneland September, while SF Bloodstock and Starlight bought Charlatan for $700,000 at the same sale for a partnership that also includes Madaket, Stonestreet, Fred Hertrich lll, John D. Fielding, and Golconda Stables.

WinStar, CHC, and SF Bloodstock had a three-year run buying yearlings a few years back that yielded some extraordinary results, most notably Justify, but also Grade l winners Improbable (City Zip) and Yoshida (Jpn) (Heart’s Cry {Jpn}), among others. After Justify was sold to Coolmore for massive dollars, WinStar and CHC stayed together, but SF left and joined some of its minor associates in Justify like Starlight and Madaket to form another buying group, which has struck gold not only with Charlatan, but also with Derby and Gl Breeders’ Cup Classic winner Authentic and Grade l winner Eight Rings (Empire Maker)–a colt bred by WinStar–among others. The breeding rights to Charlatan, Eight Rings, and Authentic have all been sold for substantial returns.

WinStar, meanwhile, has kept clicking on all cylinders, both as a breeder and owner. The farm bred the Daredevil fillies Shedaresthedevil, first in the Gl Kentucky Oaks; and Swiss Skydiver, winner of both the Gl Alabama S. and the Gl Preakness–a race in which she defeated Authentic (thereby snuffing a sizeable kicker WinStar’s ex-partners could have earned with an Authentic win).

Either alone or in a variety of partnerships, WinStar has also raced several Grade l winners and promising youngsters this year, including with CHC, which most recently yielded promising juvenile Prime Factor (Quality Road), a ‘TDN Rising Star.’ The $900,000 Keeneland September yearling won his debut at Gulfstream Dec. 12 by 8 3/4 lengths and looks like a Classic colt for next year. So, too, does the partnership’s Life Is Good (Into Mischief), a $525,000 buy at the same sale that won a Nov. 22 maiden special at Del Mar by 9 1/2 lengths for Baffert in another ‘TDN Rising Star’ performance that has garnered even more praise.

Earlier this season, WinStar raced homebred Gl Coaching Club American Oaks winner Paris Lights (Curlin) through its racing club, WinStar Stablemates Racing, and another homebred, Gl Woodward S. winner and Breeders’ Cup Classic third Global Campaign (Curlin), with Sagamore Farm. Global Campaign will stand his first year next season at WinStar along with Improbable, joining Yoshida, who stands his second season in 2021.

Speightstown’s Effect

Before I drop you with an uppercut, let me set up the scene. Speightstown is one of the best stallions at stud in North America and a favorite of mine, one that we recommend the heck out of at the day job at Werk Thoroughbred Consultants. Some of our clients feel the same way, and one, Chuck Fipke, who meticulously plans his matings, is breeding six mares to the WinStar sire in 2021, including his Kentucky Oaks winner and Kentucky Broodmare of the Year Lemons Forever–dam of two Grade l winners, including Eclipse Award winner Forever Unbridled; and Gl Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf winner Perfect Shirl, dam of current 3-year-old Grade lll winner Shirl’s Speight (Speightstown), yet another debut ‘TDN Rising Star’ in July at Woodbine.

Fipke has been a longtime supporter of the stallion and has bred and raced two of the stallion’s 19 Grade l winners: Jersey Town, the sire of Fipke’s Grade l winner Bee Jersey, who’s now at stud at Darby Dan; and current 2-year-old Lady Speightspeare, yet another debut ‘TDN Rising Star’ winner at Woodbine who followed up with the Natalma S. at the same venue. She’s a daughter of Fipke’s homebred Grade ll winner Lady Shakespeare, a half-sister to Perfect Shirl.

Before Lady Speightspeare, in 2019 ‘TDN Rising Star’ Sharing was Speightstown’s only other top-level winner at two, and she, like the Fipke filly, won her Grade l race on turf. Through 13 crops of racing age, Speightstown has yet to sire a Grade l winner on dirt before July of its 3-year-old season, something I’ve labelled the “Speightstown Effect” in past columns (click here to read one from 2019).

It goes without saying, of course, that just because something hasn’t occurred before doesn’t mean it can’t or won’t happen in the future. Sharing and Lady Speightspeare in back-to-back years aptly made the point that the stallion can get Grade l winners at two, albeit on turf, and Charlatan, if not for a DQ in the Arkansas Derby, would have been Speightstown’s first spring 3-year-old Grade l winner on dirt, but all three of these runners have come late in their sire’s career after he’d established a pattern of maturation that’s seen his best blossom as summer and fall sophomores and older horses.

Take a look at his other Grade l horses this year and note that they fit his established profile for later development: The Japanese-based 5-year-old mare Mozu Superflare won the Takamatsunomiya Kinen on turf in March, her first win at the highest level; 4-year-old Lexitonian lost the Bing Crosby by a nose in August at Del Mar, barely depriving his sire of another Grade l winner; on the day of Lexitonian’s second-place finish, however, 3-year-old Echo Town, another debut ‘TDN Rising Star,’ won the H. Allen Jerkens at Saratoga; 4-year-old Victim of Love was third in the Ballerina S. at Saratoga in August; and a few weeks ago, 4-year-old Performer was third in the Cigar Mile at Aqueduct. Also, note that Sharing came back at three this year to run second in the Coronation S. at Ascot in June. You’ll also note that most of these races were sprints and none was at more than a mile, which is Speightstown’s wheelhouse. He routinely sires fast horses–and his best runners tend to come to hand late.

This isn’t to say, however, that Speightstown can’t get staying horses; he can, when bred right. But they tend to win over a trip at the highest level after June of their 3-year-old seasons, like Haynesfield (Jockey Club Gold Cup at four); Golden Ticket (Travers, in August); Seek Again (10-furlong Hollywood Derby, in December); Force the Pass (Belmont Derby Invitational, in July); and Competitionofideas (American Oaks, in December).

So, here’s the punchline, and it’s no joke: Through 12 crops of 3-year-olds, Speightstown has never had a starter in a Triple Crown race. That’s an astounding stat for a sire of his quality, but in retrospect it fits neatly into the Speightstown Effect.

With hindsight, it’s possible that some foals in his future crops will be bred and managed by breeders, owners, and trainers to be more malleable at two and come to hand earlier at three. Perhaps he’ll get a future starter in the Derby, Preakness, or Belmont–and perhaps even a winner. But in the meantime, we can sit back and enjoy the speed show that the Malibu promises to be, and marvel that the two main protagonists in the race are by the same remarkable sire of high-octane runners.

(Special thanks to WTC’s Megan Hoover Wadley for manually researching the pedigrees of Triple Crown starters from 2009 to 2020, and to researcher Alex Kerstetter for independently confirming the results.)

Sid Fernando is president and CEO of Werk Thoroughbred Consultants, Inc., originator of the Werk Nick Rating and eNicks.

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‘One Step At A Time’: Derby Hopeful Keepmeinmind Heads To Oaklawn, Will Aim For Southwest Stakes

Keepmeinmind, among the country's leading 2-year-olds, is scheduled to arrive at Oaklawn between Christmas Day and New Year's Day to begin preparations for a 2021 campaign, the colt's trainer, Robertino Diodoro, said Saturday morning.

Diodoro said Keepmeinmind has been in light training at WinStar Farm in Kentucky since breaking his maiden in the $200,000 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (G2) Nov. 28 at Churchill Downs. The trainer said he hasn't mapped out an early 2021 race schedule for Keepmeinmind, but he likely isn't a candidate for the $150,000 Smarty Jones Stakes Jan. 22, a one-mile opening-day event that is Oaklawn's first of four Kentucky Derby points races.

“Probably too short for him, especially with the mile here,” Diodoro said. “It's a short lane and stuff.”

Oaklawn's mile races begin and end at the sixteenth pole in the stretch. Diodoro said Keepmeinmind will be considered for the $750,000 Southwest Stakes (G3) at 1 1/16 miles Feb. 15 at Oaklawn. The late-running son of Laoban has raced four times this year (all routes), finishing second in the $400,000 Breeders' Futurity (G1) Oct. 3 at Keeneland and third in the $2 million Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1) Nov. 6 at Keeneland before his breakthrough victory as the 2-1 favorite. His last three starts have been at 1 1/16 miles.

Diodoro said Keepmeinmind is jogging at WinStar in advance of shipping to Oaklawn. Keepmeinmind has already banked 18 points to rank second on the early Kentucky Derby leaderboard, and the goal, Diodoro said, is a return to Churchill Downs this spring for the first leg of the Triple Crown. The colt also ran second at Churchill Downs in his Sept. 2 career debut.

“Just one step at a time,” Diodoro said. “It's easier said than done, keeping these horses happy and healthy. It's the same with all horses, but, obviously, our long-term plan is, hopefully, live the dream of being at Churchill in May. But that's a ways out. I won't say anything. Let the horse tell us. We're not going to force anything. He came back really good out of his race and is doing well at WinStar, so we'll just play it by ear.”

David Cohen, Oaklawn's leading jockey in 2019, has ridden Keepmeinmind three times, including his victory in the Kentucky Jockey Club.

Silver Prospector won the 2019 Kentucky Jockey Club before finishing fourth in the Smarty Jones – his 3-year-old debut – and capturing the Southwest.

Diodoro said Dreamer's Disease, who finished sixth in the 2020 Breeders' Cup Juvenile, is scheduled to arrive at Oaklawn in early January. Dreamer's Disease, also by Laoban, closed his 2-year-old campaign with a seventh-place finish as the heavy favorite in the $250,000 New York Stallion Series Stakes Dec. 6 at Aqueduct after stumbling badly at the start.

Diodoro, who has never had a Triple Crown starter, already has horses training at Oaklawn.

The post ‘One Step At A Time’: Derby Hopeful Keepmeinmind Heads To Oaklawn, Will Aim For Southwest Stakes appeared first on Horse Racing News | Paulick Report.

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