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Racing’s Crystal Ball: How TDN Europe Predicts 2023 To Play Out

A large part of the fun that comes with following racing and the bloodstock game is predicting the future. Who will win the Derby? Who might top the Orby Sale? What freshman sires are here to stay and which ones will drift into the abyss?

Well, we've looked deep into the TDN Europe crystal ball for 2023 to see if we can come up with the answers to the burning questions for the year ahead. Enjoy!

January

If you think he had a good Christmas, wait until you see how January goes for Willie Mullins. This is the month where Ireland's dominant jumps trainer ramps up a gear, highlighted by Energumene's deadly performance in the Clarence House Chase at Ascot. Can anyone stop Energumene–or Mullins for that matter–at Cheltenham?

Meanwhile, Gordon Elliott appears to have his own festival banker in the shape of Mares' Novice Hurdle hotpot Halka Du Tabert, who makes light work of her rivals in the Solerina Mares' Novice Hurdle at Fairyhouse.

Guess who features among this race's roll of honour? None other than Honeysuckle and Minella Melody. Could the torch be passed to fellow Kenny Alexander-owned Halka Du Tabert?

February

Reassuring figures are recorded at one of the first big Flat sales of the new year, the February Sale, where multiple lots sell for six figures. Maybe 2022 wasn't a dream after all.

Willie Mullins once again dominates at the Dublin Racing Festival where Honeysuckle's bid for a four-timer in the Irish Champion Hurdle is foiled by State Man, who now appears the chief Irish challenger to Constitution Hill in the Champion Hurdle.

Galopin Des Champs dazzles in the Irish Gold Cup, but will he stay the extra two furlongs up the punishing hill at Cheltenham?

March

Did somebody say Flat racing? Aidan O'Brien opens the gates at Ballydoyle to the Irish press and Brendan O'Rourke is back in search of the next two-year-old star to follow this season. “He's by No Nay Never, Brendan. Big Little something, I think he's called,” says Aidan. “A fiver or a tenner,” asks Brendan.

Constitution Hill proves worthy of all of the hype in the Champion Hurdle by beating Honeysuckle, who runs a tremendous race in the first-time cheekpieces.

It's easy-as-you-like for Energumene in the Champion Chase but there's a surprise in the Stayers' Hurdle as Ahoy Senor, re-routed from the Gold Cup, denies Flooring Porter a third straight triumph.

It's a one-two-three for team Mullins in the Gold Cup, but it's Emmet who takes the top honours, not his uncle Willie, as Noble Yeats out-battles Galopin Des Champs with Stattler running an eye-catching race with a view towards the Grand National back in third.

The recently-returned Oisin Murphy shines at the Dubai World Cup meeting. Meanwhile, industry stakeholders begin to get a foothold on what's required for the Dubai Breeze-up Sale as solid trade is recorded.

April

Don't say you weren't told. Stattler does a Hedgehunter by building on a cracking effort in the Gold Cup to secure Grand National glory at the main expense of Lifetime Ambition.

Oh yes. We're back, baby. The breeze-up circus gets going with a bang as the international buyers turn out in force for the Tattersalls Craven Breeze-up Sale. Tally-Ho Stud sells the top lot, a Kodiac colt, to Peter and Ross Doyle for high six figures.

Will he or won't he? The build-up to the Craven S. revolves around whether leading 2000 Guineas contender Chaldean will take in a prep or head straight to the Classic. In the end, Andrew Balding elects to sidestep the Craven, describing himself as delighted with Chaldean's condition at home on the gallops.

May

No prep run? No problem. Balding's decision to go straight to the 2000 Guineas with Chaldean pays off in spades as he romps home at Newmarket. Little Big Bear fails to get involved but Auguste Rodin finishes a fine second for Aidan O'Brien, who goes on to win the 1000 Guineas with Meditate.

In Chaldean's absence, Little Big Bear justifies O'Brien's faith in the colt's ability to see out the mile as he makes light work of the opposition in the Irish 2,000 Guineas while Dermot Weld's Tahiyra shows a blistering turn of foot to win the Irish 1,000 Guineas.

It's that man again. Willie Browne tops the Arqana breeze-up sale with a colt sourced in America the previous autumn.

June

Aidan O'Brien wins the Oaks with a filly who failed to win as a two-year-old while the Guineas runner-up Auguste Rodin takes the step up to 1m4f in his stride by running out one of the most impressive Derby winners for some time.

It's a week for the first-season sires at Royal Ascot as colts by Ten Sovereigns and Soldier's Call win the Coventry and Norfolk S. respectively while an Inns Of Court filly lands the Queen Mary S.

Kyprios runs out one of the most impressive winners of the week to take his second Gold Cup. At the opposite end of the spectrum, Sakheer dazzles in the Commonwealth Cup, once again advertising the prowess of breeze-up handler Willie Browne.

Back at the Curragh, Aidan O'Brien records a record-extending 15th Irish Derby triumph.

July

Auguste Rodin had the option of bidding for the Derby double at the Curragh but he proves himself to be equally as adept back over 10f in bolstering the good record that three-year-olds have in the Coral-Eclipse S. at Sandown.

Remember him? Desert Crown makes his long awaited return to the track in the King George at Ascot but he is no match for Vadeni who appears a much stronger horse this year and sees the trip out well.

The demand for horses with good ratings remains strong at the July Sale at Tattersalls while, on the track, Sakheer follows up his brilliant display at Royal Ascot with a red-hot performance in the July Cup.

August

After running a number of classy races against the boys, Dramatised causes something of a surprise for local owner Steve Parkin and trainer Karl Burke in the Nunthorpe S. at York.

September

He never managed to win the St Leger as a jockey but he does it as a trainer. Step forward Donnacha O'Brien. Proud And Regal, indeed.

Goffs captures the imagination with its latest incentive to attract buyers and vendors alike to the Orby, which continues to go from strength to strength. A number of New Bay and Mehmas colts sell nicely while Saxon Warrior hardens his reputation as a coming force in the stallion ranks with his progeny selling for notable sums.

October

No match for Alpinista 12 months ago, Vadeni wins the Arc from stablemate Al Hakeem with Bay Bridge keeping on best for third.

Book 1 does not disappoint at Tattersalls with 10 lots breaking the million gns mark, including Philip Stauffenberg's Kingman half-brother to Skitter Scatter, who he picked up for €550,000 at Goffs the previous November.

But the top lot is a 3 million gns colt consigned by Watership Down and it sells to Mick Donohoe, bidding on his iPad for Yulong, with MV Magnier and Anthony Stroud pushing him all the way.

The weather Gods do not look kindly on British Champions Day as the meeting is a washout and the testing ground throws up a number of surprise results.

November

It's a first Melbourne Cup victory for Willie Mullins as Champion Hurdle also-ran Vauban builds on his Queen Alexandra S. victory at Royal Ascot to take the race that stops a nation.

Nothing can separate Aidan O'Brien and Charlie Appleby once again at the Breeders' Cup at Santa Anita as both men send out five winners apiece. Special mention to Modern Games, who secures his third Breeders' Cup triumph and second Breeders' Cup Mile success.

December

There must be something in the water. Tally-Ho Stud clinches its third first-season sire championship in four years as Inns Of Court does what Mehmas and Cotai Glory did before him by producing the goods with his first crop of runners. It was an incredibly-strong year for the freshman sires with Soldier's Call, Ten Sovereigns, Too Darn Hot, Advertise and Blue Point achieving plenty.

Some extra dates are added to the farewell tour as Frankie Dettori announces his decision to continue his riding career for another season.

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Gigginstown House Stud Renew Forces With Willie Mullins

Almost exactly six years after a high-profile split that sent shockwaves through National Hunt racing, Gigginstown House Stud have returned to the champion trainer Willie Mullins, with expensive bumper recruit Shanbally Kid (Ire) (Presenting {GB}) set to represent the once-dominant owners this season.

Michael O'Leary's Gigginstown ownership vehicle was operating at the peak of its powers when the falling out with Mullins over training fees happened in September 2016.

High-profile horses like Gold Cup third Don Poli (Ire), multiple Grade 1-winning hurdler Apple's Jade (Fr) and the then promising youngster Blow By Blow (Ire) were switched to Gordon Elliott while Valseur Lido (Fr) and others were sent to Henry de Bromhead.

It was in May 2019 that O'Leary announced that Gigginstown would be winding down their racing operation “over an extended four or five-year period” and that they would not be purchasing any more stores or young horses.

However, Eddie O'Leary, who manages Gigginstown on behalf of his brother Michael, revealed exclusively to TDN Europe on Monday that the purchasing of Shanbally Kid represents a new “select approach” by the owners.

“All I will say is that it is a long road that doesn't turn,” O'Leary said. “We've had some great days with Willie and we are looking forward to having a couple with him this season again. Shanbally Kid will be the first of them. We bought him after he won his bumper at Clonmel.”

Shanbally Kid was knocked down to Harold Kirk and Mullins for £190,000 at the Tattersalls Cheltenham April Sale shortly after bolting up at Clonmel for Richard O'Brien.

He is not the only classy bumper recruit that will sport the maroon and white of Gigginstown this season with O'Leary also sharing that Land Rover Bumper runner-up Miss Agusta (Ire) (Well Chosen {GB}) has been bought to join Gordon Elliott.

O'Leary said, “We bought a few bumper horses and got a couple at the store sales so it will be a small and select approach going forward. Miss Agusta is ours and she's for Gordon.”

Miss Agusta was sold for €235,000 to Gordon Elliott Racing at the Goffs Punchestown Sale after her debut second in the Land Rover for Mags Mullins.

Gigginstown may have spent just five years on the roster at Closutton but enjoyed a golden period, kick-started by Sir Des Champs (Fr) landing the Martin Pipe at Cheltenham in 2011. He followed up in the Jewson Novices' Chase in 2012 and would go on to run a gallant second to Bobs Worth in the 2013 Gold Cup. The powerful owner-trainer combination netted 17 Grade 1s all told.

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Inaugural Barney Curley Charity Cup To Be Held At Bellewstown

The first edition of the Barney Curley Charity Cup will take place at Bellewstown Racecourse on Wednesday, Sept. 28. This event follows on from the Barney Curley race day at the course last September that raised over €100,000 for the late Curley's charity Direct Aid For Africa (DAFA). Jockey Frankie Dettori and trainer Willie Mullins have been named captains of two teams of seven riders that will go head-to-head over two races. The event is sponsored by Gannon City Recovery & Recycling Services Limited and The Gallagher Group. Points will be awarded to the first eight placed horses on a scale of 15, 12, 10, 8, 7,6, 5, 4 and the team that accumulates the highest number of points across the two races in the challenge will be deemed the winner of the Barney Curley Charity Cup. To purchase tickets–€20 apiece– and for more information, please visit the Bellewstown website.

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‘I Was Dreading Doing That Interview All Week’ – Big Day for Small Owner

When you have a limited number of bullets to fire, you can't expect to hit the target too often, let alone on Irish Oaks day at the Curragh, but Ronan Fitzpatrick, racing manager to Mark Dobbin, sensed something special was in the offing on Saturday.

So much so, Fitzpatrick, full sure that either Cairde Go Deo (Fr) (Camelot {GB}) or Ladies Church (GB) (Churchill {Ire}) were going to do something special this weekend, had worked himself into a tizzy about doing a post-race interview with RTE's Brian Gleeson.

He needn't have fretted so much. Shortly after Ladies Church carried Dobbin's increasingly recognisable green silks to victory in the G2 Sapphire S. for Johnny Murtagh and Ben Coen, Fitzpatrick took to his media duties like a seasoned pro.

It was only after Cairde Go Deo earned Classic and Group 1 black type by rattling home for third in the Juddmonte Irish Oaks that Fitzpatrick could pause for breath but, even then, the achievements of his small but select owner had barely sunk in.

Fitzpatrick said, “I was dreading doing that interview with RTE all week. I said to my wife that, if they ask me, I am saying no. Brian Gleeson insisted so I'd no choice.

“I was expecting a big run from the fillies, more so from Cairde to be honest. Ladies Church was beaten in a handicap at Royal Ascot but Johnny said straight away afterwards that he'd aim her at the Sapphire and that she'd be better suited to a Group 2 than a handicap. I was thinking, 'how does that add up,' but he was right and I was wrong.”

An elated Fitzpatrick added, “I wasn't really expecting much from Ladies Church but Ger was really sweet on Cairde Go Deo. I was hoping that we'd be in the first three but then when Emily Upjohn (GB) (Sea The Stars {Ire}) came out of the race yesterday I started to think it could happen for us.”

Dobbin, a native of County Down, who runs the Highline Construction company in New York, couldn't make it to the Curragh on Saturday. That's not to say he's not making his presence felt in Irish racing.

With a small but select approach to owning racehorses, he has quickly built up a talented team to go to war with, and the long-term dream of making the breakthrough at the highest level is fast becoming a reality.

Fitzpatrick explained, “I spoke to Mark and he's over the moon, he's absolutely delighted. When he got involved in racing back in 2017, he gave me a five-year plan, which was to win a Group 1 race within that time period. We have a Group 2 winner today and we have Group 1 and Classic black type now, so we're nearly there.

“He is from County Down and is big into his GAA. He was a very good footballer when he was in his early 20s and, when he went to New York, he captained them for five years.

“It was in 2017 when I got a phone call from a friend of his to say that he was interested in getting involved in horses. He asked me to get him a horse and luckily enough I had a store horse by Dubai Destination and I sold him that–didn't charge him enough, mind you! That horse turned out to do well for Joseph O'Brien.”

He added, “Mark's next idea was to buy foals. I went to the November Foal Sale at Goffs and, while he gave me a decent budget, I didn't buy anything for him. He was a bit annoyed about that and wanted me to go to Newmarket to buy a foal for him afterwards.

“I admired one particular bloodstock agent, Cathy Grassick, and always liked the horses that she bought, so I decided to give her a call. Cathy went to Newmarket and bought a New Approach (Ire) filly foal for 32,000gns and that turned out to be New York Girl (Ire) who won the G3 Weld Park S. here in 2019 before being sold.

“Cathy also bought a beautiful Champs Elysees (GB) filly, called Brook On Fifth (Ire), who won her maiden at the Curragh but got injured. So, from those two foals, Mark got two very smart horses and it took off from there.”

Fitzpatrick, whose late father John was a permit holder in Northern Ireland, enjoyed great days as an owner himself with Kempes (Ire) (Intikhab) before selling the horse to JP McManus.

Although there was a brief sabbatical when his brother Edward died in 1999, the self-labelled “small-time” estate agent returned to racing in 2005 and, through his association with Dobbin, has enjoyed some of his greatest days in the sport.

He said, “We spread them out between Ger Lyons, Johnny Murtagh and Joseph O'Brien and we also had a National Hunt filly, Lady Breffni (Ire) (Yeats {Ire}), who has done well with Willie Mullins. It's a very selective approach.”

Has there been a bad one?

“If there is a bad one, I usually blame the trainer! But, if we just stick to our plan and be selective–and Cathy has been a massive help–we can do well. I actually had a couple of question marks over Cairde Go Deo but Ger loved her so much that I said to go ahead and buy her. The same with Ladies Church, Johnny bought her for us as well, so sometimes trainers buy for us as well.”

He added, “Today has been an amazing day and hopefully there will be more to come. Johnny is always upbeat and he's looking at Group 1s for Ladies Church so maybe the Flying Five here on Irish Champions Weekend could suit. Ger absolutely loves Cairde. I've actually never seen a trainer love a horse as much as Ger loves Cairde. He thinks that she could be even better over further and may even be better next year. It's just an amazing team of people to be working with and it's great.”

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