Jerkens ‘More Apt’ To Aim Gotham Winner Weyburn At Belmont Than Kentucky Derby

Trainer Jimmy Jerkens gave Grade 3 Gotham winner Weyburn a stiff three-eighths blowout on Wednesday morning over the Belmont Park training track in preparation for his nine-furlong debut in Saturday's Grade 2, $750,000 Wood Memorial presented by Resorts World Casino.

After two easy works following the Gotham, Chiefswood Stables' son of Pioneerof the Nile covered the three furlongs in :36.20 – the second fastest of 18 recorded works at the distance. Weyburn worked six-furlongs 1:16.60 five days earlier.

“If I'm running a horse that's going further than they ever have, I like to give them a little something close to the race just to open up their lungs a bit,” Jerkens said. “It was pretty close to his work before that, but he didn't go all that fast that day, so I didn't think it was a big deal with the five days, plus we had a lot of rain the next day.”

In upsetting the Gotham at 46-1 odds, Weyburn displayed tactical speed and fought gamely along the rail to get a nose to the better of fellow Wood Memorial aspirant Crowded Trade. He also earned 50 points on the Road to the Kentucky Derby, currently standing 10th on the leaderboard.

Despite qualifying for the “Run for the Roses,” Jerkens said he might be more inclined to train Weyburn up to the Grade 1, $1.5 million Belmont Stakes on June 5. His best finish in the 12-furlong “Test of a Champion” was Thomas Jo, who finished third behind a thrilling stretch run in 1998 where Victory Gallop infamously spoiled the Triple Crown bid of Real Quiet.

“We kind of have that in the back of our head that we'd more apt to aim for something like that than the Derby,” Jerkens said. “He's a horse that takes some time to get used to new places. He's high maintenance in that regard. We'd like to stretch the year out a little more.”

Jerkens seeks a second Wood Memorial triumph, having saddled Centennial Farms' Wicked Strong to victory in the 2014 edition.

Centennial Farms, graded stakes-winner Rocketry has been back to the work tab since getting some winter rest at the outfits Middleburg, Virginia facility. The veteran son of Hard Spun is possible for the $100,000 Flat Out on April 30 at Belmont Park.

After going three furlongs in 38.21 on March 21, he went an easy half-mile in 50.09 seconds.

“We'll try to make the Flat Out,” Jerkens said. “We were debating on whether to keep him here all winter because he always does well when he's with the rest of us. Sometimes when he gets turned out, he can get a little bored and then he comes back, and it takes a while to get into the rhythm of things.”

Rocketry, a three-time stakes winner, was last seen ending a nine-race slump when coming from ten lengths off the pace to win the 1 5/8-mile Grade 2 Thoroughbred Aftercare Alliance on November 6 at Keeneland.

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This Side Up: Still Amending the Derby Agenda

We should have known better. The moment we deceived ourselves that we had a crossroads of perfect symmetry, with four standout colts converging inexorably on the first Saturday in May, one promptly limped off the trail and then last weekend another was beaten at odds-on. Nobody, then, will be making any assumptions when the other two complete their GI Kentucky Derby preparations, Concert Tour (Street Sense) in the GI Arkansas Derby next week and Essential Quality (Tapit) as the geographical and narrative pivot of three rehearsals staged coast to coast Saturday.

That said, the juvenile champion gets a home game, round a circuit where he has already won two Grade Is. It will be on the margins of East and West, then, that we seem more likely to see a breakout after the manner of Known Agenda (Curlin) last week. Not that anyone in the Greatest Honour (Tapit) camp is too downbeat after he had to settle for third behind that old rival in the GI Florida Derby. I was heartened by the fidelity of colleague T.D. Thornton to Greatest Honour, who retained the No. 1 spot in his Derby Top 12 this week. Because these adolescent horses seldom crown a curve of relentless improvement under the Twin Spires: very often, they will need to have soaked up some adversity on the way, to have absorbed a tough lesson or two before regrouping. Greatest Honour has been on the punchbag all winter and was entitled to drop a glove this once, especially with such a messy trip. We know that his trainer will always have been working back from one date, and one date only.

With that date now looming so large, however, there's a kind of exquisite tension for all these horsemen, trying to achieve an equilibrium between their own restraint, and the fitness and seasoning of their charges. Remember that's exactly what they do every day, with horses at every level. It's just that the whole process is so much more visible here, because of the extremity of the test and the depth of the associated lore.

Many of us profess a sentimental attachment to the old school, with an emphasis on grounding, but modern trainers make their own rules. Obviously last year's race was an outlier, its postponement as ruinous to other horses as it was helpful to the raw Authentic (Into Mischief). But in 2018 we had a Triple Crown winner unraced before February 18; and the following year the first past the post had started off in midwinter under a $16,000 tag, and his works might have been as usefully clocked with a sundial as a stopwatch.

Medina Spirit has only been beaten by Life Is Good | Benoit

Bob Baffert's mastery of the definitive challenge of his calling now puts him within reach of a seventh Derby, and an outright record, even after losing the services of Life Is Good (Into Mischief). In that colt's lamentable absence from the GI Runhappy Santa Anita Derby, we have a twist in the astonishing tale of Medina Spirit (Protonico), the $1,000 short yearling who somehow found his way into the most lavishly stocked barn in the land. But nothing should surprise us with the genius of his trainer. Remember that Medina Spirit, having been pinhooked to a giddy $35,000, was actually twice as expensive as Real Quiet (Quiet American)!

He would be unbeaten but for Life Is Good and he's been working the house down since a minor throat procedure. Baffert plus Medina Spirit is like Goliath teaming up with David, but this race does offer romantics the option of Rock Your World (Candy Ride {Arg}), bred by Hall of Famer Ron McAnally.

Undefeated Rock Your World switches to dirt | Benoit

You imagine John Sadler has not been short of humorous counsel on the backside, especially as the veteran McAnally, who nowadays supervises just with a handful of animals, managed a graded stakes placing for Rock Your World's older sister She's Our Charm during the winter. McAnally trained both the parents, namely Candy Ride (Arg) and dual Grade I-placed juvenile Charm the Maker (Empire Maker); and actually McAnally and wife Deborah bred the first three dams. But Sadler is certainly rewriting Derby rules with this colt, switching from turf after teaching him about dirt with some pretty heavy duty drills.

The last four runnings have been divided between Baffert and John Shirreffs, who intriguingly perseveres with Parnelli (Quality Road) as though he has more ability than we've been seeing of late. Recent works suggest that the blinkers are helping, much as they did Hot Rod Charlie (Oxbow) when Parnelli ran the GII Louisiana Derby winner to a neck in the fall.

Interesting to see a Californian shipper taking on Essential Quality, in Rombauer (Twirling Candy), though the most feasible GII Toyota Blue Grass S. wildcard is surely Known Agenda's raw but devastating barnmate Untreated (Nyquist). In the GII Wood Memorial (presented by Resorts World Casino), meanwhile, a similarly late play from Prevalance (Medaglia d'Oro) will help Godolphin decide whether he's progressing fast enough to join their champion in Louisville. If not, then they will hope that at least Risk Taking (Medaglia d'Oro) can go forward on behalf of their big stallion, who joins Tapit and Curlin in craving the Derby as a seal on all their other success.

A playful Weyburn last month at Belmont | Susie Raisher

Pioneerof the Nile beat those big hitters to that distinction before his premature loss, which would be felt all the more keenly if Weyburn were to emerge as a new Derby force from this race. I can definitely see that happening, the Chiefswood homebred being born for this second turn with first three dams by A.P. Indy, Sunday Silence and Nijinsky. The third dam, indeed, is Maplejinsky, dam of Sky Beauty (Blushing Groom {Fr})–so seeing the name Jerkens on the card gives us that warm glow, too. This is an April 21 foal, paradoxically just the kind of thing we like for the Derby, and I love the gutsy way this horse carried his speed through a demanding mile after a lay-off.

So forget that neat and orderly crossroads. On the day itself, we know it will be chaos out there; and the same applies to the four weeks in between. Some engines stalling, others suddenly roaring into life; lights turning red, lights turning green. And with horsemen like Jerkens, Shirreffs and Sadler trying to weave into the traffic, with all their skill and experience, for now it still feels like we don't even know which way round to hold the Derby map.

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Nine in Line for Competitive Wood

Realistic cases can be made for six or seven of the nine 3-year-old males signed on for Saturday's GII Wood Memorial S. as the New York staple GI Kentucky Derby prep returns with a competitive renewal after a one-year hiatus due to COVID-19.

Given the narrowest of nods on the morning line is Klaravich Stables' Risk Taking (Medaglia d'Oro). Unable to factor in his first two outings, one sprinting on dirt and one routing on yielding turf, the $240,000 Keeneland September buy sprung to life when returned to dirt over Saturday's nine-furlong trip with a clear graduation here Dec. 13. He followed that up with a strong rally to win the local GIII Withers S. Feb. 6.

The waters get significantly deeper in here though, and one need look no further than the presence of Godolphin's undefeated 'TDN Rising Star' Prevalence (Medaglia d'Oro) to confirm that. Rocketing away to a devastating 8 1/2-length victory on debut going seven panels Jan. 23 at Gulfstream, the Brendan Walsh trainee stretched out a furlong in an allowance/optional claimer there Mar. 11 and wasn't quite as impressive while still winning by three lengths as a 1-10 favorite.

The first two finishers from the GIII Gotham S. here Mar. 6 return and figure as major players. Dismissed at over 46-1 that day, Chiefswood Stable's homebred Weyburn (Pioneerof the Nile) dug in resolutely through the stretch to just nose out Klaravich Stables' Crowded Trade (More Than Ready). The latter was making just his second career start after graduating on debut when hammered down to even-money over a local six furlongs Jan. 28.

The blue-collar returnee Brooklyn Strong (Wicked Strong) demands attention as well. Bought for just $5,000 as an OBS April juvenile, the gelding debuted a winner against $40,000 maiden claimers at Delaware and has gotten better in every start since, running third in the New York-bred Bertram F. Bongard S. and winning the Empire-bred Sleepy Hollow S. 22 days later before gutting out a score in the track-and-trip GII Remsen S. Dec. 5. Unseen since then, he shows a sharp worktab for trainer Danny Velazquez at his Parx base, including a five-furlong bullet in :59 3/5 (1/16) Mar. 20.

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Equibase Analysis: Weyburn Poised To Validate Gotham Upset In Wood Memorial

Saturday's Grade 1, $750,000 Wood Memorial Presented by Resorts World Casino is the first of three “Road to the Kentucky Derby” prep races within the span of one hour on Saturday, April 3. Except for the Arkansas Derby to be run one week from now, these three races, which include the Runhappy Santa Anita Derby and Toyota Blue Grass Stakes, offer the winner a guaranteed spot in the starting gate on the first Saturday in May by affording the winner 100 points. Even the 40 points the runner-up will earn in these races could be sufficient to help secure a spot among the 20 which will participate in the “Greatest Two Minutes in Sports” next month.

The Wood Memorial drew a field of nine, led by the one-two finishers in the Grade 3 Gotham Stakes last month in Weyburn and Crowded Trade, respectively. Another stakes winner who may belong is Risk Taking, who won the Grade 3 Withers Stakes in February at Aqueduct but who skipped the Gotham. Brooklyn Strong won the Grade 2 Remsen Stakes over the track at the distance of the Wood Memorial, but it may be a tall order to pick up where he left off following four months on the bench and versus horses which all ran much more recently.

Candy Man Rocket won the Grade 3 Sam F. Davis Stakes in February before an 11th of 12 finish in the Grade 2 Tampa Bay Derby and it may be a stretch to go from next-to-last in that recent race to a top competitor in the Wood Memorial. Market Maven and Bourbonic finished first and second, respectively, in an allowance race at Parx Racing in Pennsylvania but appear overmatched, as does recent maiden winner Dynamic One.

Then there's Prevalence, a strong winner of both starts in his career shipping in to New York from Florida for Godolphin, which already has a significant presence on the “Road to the Derby” with Rebel's Romance (winner of the U.A.E. Derby last weekend), Essential Quality (running in the Blue Grass Stakes), and Proxy.

Weyburn was disregarded by bettors at 46 to 1 odds one month ago in the Gotham Stakes but proved to be an exceptionally tough competitor when winning by a nose. After attending the pace only a half-length behind the leader for the first half-mile, Weyburn engaged for the lead for the rest of the race, first battling head and head with Freedom Fighter then battling nose and nose the entire last eighth of a mile with Crowded Trade. That effort occurring one month ago leads me to believe he will not regress and will move forward to run even better in the Wood Memorial. Considering Weyburn earned a career-best 105 Equibase Speed Figure, tied for best in the field with Crowded Trade, it would take significant improvement by any other runner except Crowded Trade to run faster than Weyburn demonstrating logical improvement in his second start following three months off. As such, Weyburn gets slight preference among two horses I feel stand out against the rest in terms of their probability to win this race.

Crowded Trade has no knocks, having won in his career debut at the end of January before stepping into stakes company in the Gotham Stakes last month and giving it his all. Third place Gotham finisher Highly Motivated is looking for different scenery this weekend and will run in the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes. With no other horse having run as fast as either Crowded Trade (or Weyburn) who earned a 105 figure in the Gotham, this lightly raced colt making his third career start has significant improving he can do and must be considered a strong contender to win. As to his breeding to run this nine furlong trip, there's no doubt as a son of More Than Ready that is not an issue as the sire's Catholic Boy won graded stakes at a mile and one-quarter. Trained by Chad Brown and ridden by red hot Eric Cancel, Crowded Trade has every right to turn the tables on Weyburn in their second meeting and move on to the Kentucky Derby in fine form.

Prevalence, like Crowded Trade, has only run twice, and likewise his second race was a one-turn mile in which he ran impressively. After winning his debut by eight lengths in handy fashion with a 99 figure, Prevalence won his second start just as easily by three lengths with a 98 figure but likely could have gone faster. Perhaps more importantly, after he crossed the finish line it was noted by the astute chart caller for Equibase that Prevalence was “urged past the wire for an eighth of a mile or so past the finish.” This is significant, as it shows a plan beforehand between jockey Tyler Gaffalione (who rides in the Wood) and trainer Brendan Walsh (who trained top 3-year-old Maxfield last year) to give the colt experience at running the distance of his next race. Being a son of Medaglia d'Oro, who sired tremendous stakes winners like Songbird and Wonder Gadot, if Prevalence got the foundation for this race as intended, improving enough to win the Wood Memorial is not out of the question.

In case readers are wondering, the reason I'm not considering Risk Taking a win contender has to do with the fact he comes back from two months off after winning the Withers Stakes in February. Although the 102 figure earned in that race may be competitive with the top horses in the Wood if he improves on it, the fact that he skipped the Gotham and most of his opponents ran more recently gives me pause.

The rest of the field, with their best representative Equibase Speed Figures, is Bourbonic (88), Brooklyn Strong (99), Candy Man Rocket (90), Dynamic One (87) and Market Maven (94).

Win Contenders:
Weyburn
Crowded Trade
Prevalence

Wood Memorial Stakes Presented by Resorts World Casino – Grade 2
Race 10 at Aqueduct
Saturday, April 3 – Post Time 5:58 PM E.T.
One Mile and One Eighth
Three Year Olds
Purse: $750,000
TV: NBC Sports Network 5:30 – 7:30 PM ET

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