Thunder Forecast for the Prix Jean Prat

Sunday at Deauville means the recently re-shaped G1 Haras d'Etreham Prix Jean Prat, which as well as being one of the final top-level encounters restricted to the 3-year-old class also represents a unique milestone as the only one of its kind for that age group over seven furlongs. Understandably, the line-up is competitive as a result while lacking a standout performer and has drawn a strong contingent from Ireland and Britain headed by last year's G1 Goffs Vincent O'Brien National S. hero Thunder Moon (Ire) (Zoffany {Ire}). Failing to fire in two starts over a mile this term when last of 14 in the G1 2000 Guineas at Newmarket May 1 and seventh in the G1 St James's Palace S. at Royal Ascot June 15, Chantal Regalado-Gonzalez's TDN Rising Star may be best suited by a return to this distance having looked to possess sprinter's acceleration at two.

Second behind Thunder Moon in the National and ahead of him when also in that position in the G1 Dewhurst S. at Newmarket in October, Ballydoyle's Wembley (Ire) (Galileo {Ire}) has also ran well below par in three starts at a mile this season and was only ninth in the St James's Palace. The stable's Battleground (War Front) would appear the far stronger candidate on recent evidence, with his third placing in the St James's Palace looking a return to the pick of his 2-year-old form.

Godolphin's Naval Crown (GB) (Dubawi {Ire}) was way ahead of both the Ballydoyle pair when fourth in the 2000 Guineas and his subsequent second to Creative Force (Ire) (Dubawi {Ire}) in the G3 Jersey S. over this trip at Royal Ascot June 19 looks just as solid following his stablemate's fine effort in the July Cup. Charlie Appleby said, “Naval Crown came out of the Jersey Stakes in good order and seven furlongs is an ideal trip for him. He has a decent draw in stall one and some rock-solid form behind him so far this season. He ticks a lot of boxes and we feel that he will be the one to beat.”

The operation also has the promising Andre Fabre-trained pair of Midtown (GB) (Dubawi {Ire}), who is making his 3-year-old debut having last been seen lording it over his peers in Chantilly's Listed Prix Herod over this trip in November, and Erasmo (GB) (Oasis Dream {GB}) who beat the Herod runner-up Best Lightning (Fr) (Sidestep {Aus}) in the G3 Prix Paul de Moussac over a mile also at Chantilly June 20. “Midtown has always been held in very high regard and his two-year-old form is looking stronger and stronger,” Godolphin's Lisa-Jane Graffard said. “Coming into a group 1 on his seasonal return is obviously a very tough ask, but he is a horse that Andre Fabre thinks an awful lot of. We hope this can be a springboard to an exciting second half of the season. Erasmo is a very game horse who has run consistently well this year. He comes here on the back of a decent win in a group 3 which is traditionally a prep race for the Prix Jean Prat. We weren't quite sure that we were going to run here immediately after his last start, but he has bounced out of the race in flying form and deserves his place in the field.”

Of the remainder of the French, the G1 Poule d'Essai des Poulains runner-up Colosseo (Street Boss) puts the form of the May 16 ParisLongchamp Classic to the test, while Jean-Claude Rouget's representative Valloria (Fr) (Dubawi {Ire}) warrants respect on his defeat of TDN Rising Star Dolia (Fr) (Invincible Spirit {Ire}) over a mile in the Listed Prix Volterra at that venue June 13. Colosseo's trainer Gianluca Bietolini told the Racing Post, “We always intended to wait for this race after his great run in the Poule d'Essai, as I don't think he will stay any further. He has excellent form against the best of the French, while St Mark's Basilica is an extraterrestrial. The only worry is that the horse has never run on a straight track, but he's in top form and loves soft ground.”

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Frankie Looking For a Flying Start

   Frankie Dettori left it late to win his second consecutive jockey's title at Royal Ascot in 2020, so this time he will be looking for an instant boost via Palace Pier (GB) (Kingman {GB}) in the opening G1 Queen Anne S. on Tuesday. If form is any guide, Sheikh Hamdan bin Mohammed Al Maktoum's 'TDN Rising Star' can be fully expected to hand the Italian a 74th winner at the meeting, having been his 73rd on the Saturday of the last renewal when causing a minor surprise in the G1 St James's Palace S. Since that breakthrough success, the John and Thady Gosden-trained bay has enjoyed an almost fault-free run garnering the G1 Prix Jacques le Marois and the G1 Lockinge S. at Newbury May 15, with his sole reversal when third in the G1 Queen Elizabeth II S. due to a combination of deep ground and a lost fore shoe. At this juncture, he is one of those priceless commodities to kick off the Royal meeting; an already-high-class miler probably still only nearing his prime dominating his division. It was in this race in 1990 that Frankie first signalled his arrival on the main stage with Markofdistinction (GB) and there is an argument that the 31-year-older version is as good as any of his profession in recent memory.

“I'm no different to an actor going on stage at the theatre,” he said. “Everybody knows that I'm quite lucky at Ascot. The crowd gets behind me and I love it. I need the crowd, I need the atmosphere. I can smell it, I can breathe it, I can taste it. It's part of me, I'm sorry! I'm addicted to it. You need at least six to win the title, but they're hard to win. Last year, I had three winners going into Saturday. I had a couple of chances but then Campanelle goes in, the filly Alpine Star wins and I had Palace Pier. When that won, great, leading rider again. The one that means the most is the first one. Now that I'm 50, I'm looking back to what I was like. It was sheer excitement. It means everything.”

Aidan O'Brien's day one representation is not as strong as it can be, with no favourites among the six colts he sends to the fixture he has excelled at since his opening salvo in the 1997 G3 Coventry S. It is in that race, long since upgraded to Group 2 status, that he may have his best chance of an opening day winner in The Acropolis (Ire) by Coolmore's first-season sire Churchill  (Ire). A son of the 2012 G2 Queen Mary S. third Hairy Rocket (GB) (Pivotal {GB}), the impressive-looking bay made giant strides from his debut fourth at The Curragh May 22 to his authoritative win at Listowel June 6 and it is noteworthy that he goes it alone from a stable that has done better than normal with its early 2-year-old runners. Drawn alongside the first Wesley Ward runner of the 2021 meeting in Gregory Kaufman's Kaufymaker (Jimmy Creed), he will have to be sharper still to stay within hailing distance of the impressive Apr. 15 Keeneland maiden special weight scorer who has ground to suit.

Ryan Moore is keen on The Acropolis and said, “He had been going well at home before making his debut at The Curragh last month, but the ground was very bad that day and that was no reflection of his true ability. We got a better look at what a promising horse he was when winning impressively at Listowel last week and this son of Churchill and a Queen Mary third promises to be even better on this quicker ground still. He clearly steps up markedly in grade, but he is a horse we like. He is classy and should go well, albeit this is a big field made up of similarly unexposed juveniles.”

Also in the Coventry, Al Shaqab Racing's impressive Listed National S. scorer Ebro River (Ire) bids to give his promising first-season sire Galileo Gold (GB) an early highlight. Also under the care of the Tally Ho Stud's resident's past trainer Hugo Palmer, the chestnut was a commanding presence when scoring by 3 1/4 lengths in that five-furlong Sandown contest May 27 and has a vital experience edge. “He seems to be growing up all the time,” Palmer told the Independent. “We're very excited to run him.”

In opposition is Michael Kerr-Dineen and Martin Hughes's 'TDN Rising Star' Gisburn (Ire) by another first-season sire in Kildangan Stud's Ribchester (Ire). He impressed by 6 1/2 lengths over this trip at Newbury May 14 and trainer Richard Hannon has his sights on a first win in this prestigious affair his father won on three occasions. “It is a race where you find out exactly where you are. You hope that you have got a good horse, but this will tell us,” he said. “I hope we do, he certainly looked like one, but the Coventry will tell us.”

In the G1 King's Stand S., Shadwell's Battaash (Ire) (Dark Angel {Ire}) is a welcome sight following his well-documented setback and it remains the case that the only sprinter to have mastered him in three renewals of this five-furlong dash is Blue Point (Ire) (Shamardal). Making it third time lucky 12 months ago in the absence of that Godolphin luminary, the star of Charlie Hills's establishment may only need to repeat that performance to add a fifth top-level contest to his tally. “He came in a couple of weeks later than usual this year, so we were never going to fit in a prep run but I couldn't be happier with him,” his trainer commented. “They found a tiny hairline fracture in a sesamoid when he had his usual MOT at the end of last year, but that was attended to in December. They've done a great job with him at Shadwell over the winter and spring was so awful that coming back later has probably helped him. We've taken our time and he hasn't missed a beat.”

While Battaash was vulnerable to the strong closer Blue Point, he has pace pressure this time from a new challenger in King Power Racing's exciting 3-year-old filly Winter Power (Ire) (Bungle Inthejungle {GB}). While her emphatic success in Newmarket's G3 Cornwallis S. in October was a step forward on some largely unconvincing juvenile form, it was the manner of her trail-blazing display on her return in the Listed Westow S. over this trip at York May 13 that suggested this was a realistic target. Trainer Tim Easterby knows what it takes to win one of these major sprints and compared his latest stable star with the likes of Pipalong (Ire) (Pips Pride {GB}) after her three-length defeat of the subsequent Listed Scurry S. winner Atalis Bay (GB) (Cable Bay {Ire}). “She's in good form. She has a good draw and will handle the track, so she should run well,” Easterby said.

As with most of the major 3-year-old races run so far this term, the G1 St James's Palace S. is wide-open with very little separating the Classic class and the up-and-comers. One who fits into the latter category is Shadwell's Mostahdaf (Ire) (Frankel {GB}), a half-brother to Nazeef (GB) (Invincible Spirit {Ire}) who made such rapid strides last season beginning with a win in the G2 Duke of Cambridge S. at this meeting. If the current Gosden trainee is in the same mould as his year-older sibling, he can be expected to be in the mix given the innate promise of the third of his three straight wins in the Listed Heron S. Getting three pounds from Godolphin's Apr. 13 Listed Feilden S. winner Highland Avenue (Ire) (Dubawi {Ire}) in that mile Sandown contest May 20, he had half a length to spare at the line with Bullace (GB) (Toronado {Ire}) the same margin behind in third.

John Gosden said of Mostahdaf, “Our fellow has come the slow route–it wasn't his fault he couldn't run last year because he had a hiccup. This year he won twice on the all-weather and then the Heron. You could argue, and William Buick felt, that Highland Avenue was on the slower part of the track at Sandown near the rail, while we were more middle to left on the better ground. Having said that, our horse ran a great race and I think the St James's Palace is quite an open affair. I think our fellow will be fine on the ground–he's a lovely horse and we've taken this route before with Without Parole and with King of Comedy who just missed. Palace Pier came from an unobvious direction, too.”

Charlie Appleby has some talented 3-year-old colts in his stable this year and this has long been the target for Highland Avenue, while he also saddles 'TDN Rising Star' La Barrosa (Ire) (Lope de Vega {Ire}). Sixth on testing ground in the G1 Irish 2000 Guineas at The Curragh May 22, last year's G3 Tattersalls S. winner is back on a similar surface to when 3/4-of-a-length second to Master of the Seas (Ire) (Dubawi {Ire}) in the G3 Craven S. at Newmarket Apr. 15. “We have been pleased with Highland Avenue going into this race. The wide draw is a slight disadvantage on the round course at Ascot, but his homework has gone well,” their trainer said. “He learned plenty at Sandown and came forward again for that run, while ground conditions will suit him better this time. We are hoping that he can be a big player as he steps up to the big league. La Barrosa travelled well in the Irish 2000 Guineas but couldn't pick up on the ground. Returning to a faster surface is definitely going to suit and, if he can reproduce his second in the Craven S., it will make him a contender.”

As usual, the form of the May 1 G1 2000 Guineas is key here, with colts whose fortunes diverged in that Newmarket Classic all coming together again. Zhang Yuesheng's G1 Phoenix S. winner Lucky Vega (Ire) (Lope de Vega {Ire}) was not far off glory when a short head and a neck behind Poetic Flare (Ire) (Dawn Approach {Ire}) and Master of the Seas on that occasion and is another who can be forgiven a subsequent dip when fourth in the Irish Guineas on its vastly contrasting ground. Michael Pescod's Apr. 18 G3 Greenham S. winner Chindit (Ire) (Wootton Bassett {GB}) was fifth at Newmarket with no obvious excuses, while the Ballydoyle duo Wembley (Ire) (Galileo {Ire}) and Battleground (War Front) were 11th and 13th respectively with only Joseph O'Brien's G1 Vincent O'Brien National S.-winning 'TDN Rising Star' Thunder Moon (Ire) (Zoffany {Ire}) behind.

Ryan Moore is expecting the Rosegreen duo to bounce back here. “Both of our colts are on recovery missions, but it would be unwise to give up on both, I feel,” he commented. “Quite why Battleground didn't run his race at Newmarket we don't know and he was pulled out of the Irish 2000 Guineas due to the worsening ground afterwards, but this is a colt I really rated last season in winning the Chesham at this meeting, the Vintage S. at Goodwood, and then finishing second at the Breeders' Cup. The form horses from the Guineas are the ones to beat here, but if my colt returns to his juvenile form then he clearly has a big run in him. Similar comments apply to Wembley, who just didn't handle conditions at the Curragh last time. His Dewhurst second to Sir Mark's Basilica speaks for itself, and hopefully the first-time tongue-ties for them both prove to be a positive. This looks a very deep St James' Palace though, albeit one lacking a clear stand-out, with the form horses from the Guineas closely matched.”

Ryan Moore also gets the chance to partner the shock GI Breeders' Cup Mile hero Order of Australia (Ire) (Australia {GB}) for the first time in the Queen Anne and said, “We all know that Palace Pier is the one to beat if he brings his A-game to the table and he will be very difficult to beat at that. Maybe the expected fast ground gives us all a window of hope, though probably not, as he won on it earlier in his career and his third in the QEII here last October proves he can have the odd off-day. Order of Australia caused a shock when beating his stablemates Circus Maximus and Lope Y Fernandez in Keeneland and clearly has a solid place chance on that firm-ground win, which was a significant improvement on his earlier form. His improvement since stepping down from a mile and a half was quite something and he wasn't disgraced when sixth in the Hong Kong Mile afterwards in December, too.”

In Wednesday's G1 Prince of Wales's S., Love (Ire) (Galileo {Ire}) and Lord North (Ire) (Dubawi {Ire}) are set for their clash as the G1 Champion S. hero Addeybb (Ire) (Pivotal {GB}) was withdrawn by William Haggas. He explained to the Racing Post on Monday, “We've minded him so far in his career and are not going to run him on good-to-firm now at his age. It's going to rain at some time and it's just unfortunate. The next logical place is the [July 3 G1] Eclipse.”

Click here for the group fields.

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Poetic Flare Heads Irish Guineas Cast

Denied a Classic double in Sunday's G1 Poule d'Essai des Poulains, Jim Bolger's Poetic Flare (Ire) (Dawn Approach {Ire}) will try again in Saturday's G1 Tattersalls Irish 2000 Guineas at The Curragh, for which a dozen were confirmed on Thursday. His owner, breeder and trainer gave the expected all-clear to the May 1 G1 2000 Guineas hero after his sixth placing at ParisLongchamp, while he also saddles the G1 Futurity Trophy winner Mac Swiney (Ire) (New Approach {Ire}), who was only fourth on his return in the G3 Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial at Leopardstown May 9. Reflecting on Poetic Flare's reversal, Bolger said, “The wheels kind of came off the wagon a little bit there, but we've drawn a line through it and we're moving on. It was the conditions mainly. While I agree the going was very soft, he couldn't get a grip for whatever reason and I suspect there was a little bit of padding underneath. He wasn't going to be able to quicken up like he can in those circumstances and Kevin didn't get him to where he wanted to be at the two-furlong marker.”

Bolger believes that Poetic Flare is up to the fast turnaround. “He's very well, he only had a furlong and a half of a race, so we expected he'd be fresh after it,” he commented. “He's very durable and has a great constitution. He'd be able to stand up to whatever I throw at him.” Of Mac Swiney, he added, “Mac Swiney was flat in the Derrinstown and didn't perform at all well, but the following morning he had a very copious nasal discharge. That cleared up over the following weekend, he's back in work and is doing very well. I need to get the run into him for Epsom and for him to prove his wellbeing. If he does that, I'll be very happy with him. If he can beat Poetic Flare he can win, but I think at a mile Poetic Flare is the better horse. I'd be very comfortable going to Epsom with him, provided we get a good show at the Curragh.”

Likely favourite at present is Zhang Yuesheng's 2000 Guineas third Lucky Vega (Ire) (Lope de Vega {Ire}), while Ryan Moore is on Wembley (Ire) (Galileo {Ire}) who proved such a disappointment when 11th behind him at Newmarket. Godolphin rely on TDN Rising Star La Barrosa (Ire) (Lope de Vega {Ire}), who was runner-up to Master of the Seas (Ire) (Dubawi {Ire}) in Newmarket's G3 Craven S. over this mile trip last time Apr. 15. Another TDN Rising Star, Thunder Moon (Ire) (Zoffany {Ire}), will be missing from the Curragh after Joseph O'Brien withdrew Chantal Regalado-Gonzalez's G1 Goffs Vincent O'Brien National S. hero.

Friday's action sees the last two recognised Epsom Oaks and Derby trials takes place in the Listed Height of Fashion S. and Listed British Stallion Studs EBF Cocked Hat S., formerly known as the Lupe and the Predominate. The Lupe or Height of Fashion was won in 2000 by Love Divine (GB) (Diesis {GB}) and in 2010 by Snow Fairy (Ire) (Intikhab) who went on to Oaks glory days later, but none of the eight entered this time even hold an entry in the June 4 Classic. The Cocked Hat is a different kettle of fish, with live Derby outsiders Stay Well (GB) (Iffraaj {GB}) and Lone Eagle (Ire) (Galileo {Ire}) making up an intriguing contest. The former, who is owned by his breeders Ben and Sir Martyn Arbib, scored by eight lengths over 10 furlongs at Windsor Apr. 26 and trainer Hughie Morrison is looking forward to seeing him tackle the extra furlong here. “He was named Stay Well in recognition of the sayings this time last year 'Stay Alert, Stay At Home', not that he would stay well but his mother did stay very well,” he explained. “Martyn and Ben breed to win the Derby, so if you've got half a chance of running in the Derby that's what you do. It's close enough to it but my feeling is, if we were going to the Derby, we'd have to give him a very good gallop some time in the next 10 days. This is his racecourse gallop.”

Noel Meade said of Ballylinch Stud and Aquis Farm's G3 Zetland S. winner Lone Eagle, who was fourth in the G3 Sandown Classic Trial Apr. 23 and who carries a five-pound penalty, “He was a little bit disappointing at Sandown. He just didn't seem to spark, but then again it was his first time back and he is a lazy-ish horse. He does need motivating and he was a bit ring-rusty, so maybe we will see him in a better light. I needed to give him another run. It's not ideal having to carry a penalty. That's not good but at the same time if he's good enough, he should manage with it. I just wanted to get him out and get him running. Hopefully the track will suit him. We'll just see where to go from there.”

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Lingfield Derby Trial For High Definition

Group winner and 'TDN Rising Star' High Definition (Ire) (Galileo {Ire}) is likely to step forward in the Listed Lingfield Derby Trial on May 8 trainer Aidan O'Brien has revealed. A winner of a maiden at The Curragh at first asking on Aug. 22, the bay added the G2 Beresford S. to his resume there on Sept. 26 and is currently favoured for the G1 Cazoo Derby on June 5th.

“We're thinking of going to Lingfield,” said O'Brien. “He needs to start and with all the trials we're just trying to split them up. He's a baby and we're worried about Lingfield, but we have to learn. What's different about him is his stride is half a stride longer than everything else. He's going to learn a lot.”

The master of Ballydoyle also had an update on his G1 QIPCO 2000 Guineas trio.

Van Gogh (American Pharoah) ran well. He's probably a horse for the Derby–stepping up in trip,” said O'Brien. “Battleground  (War Front) cruised with Frankie [Dettori] down past halfway and when he asked him he got disunited as he changed (his legs) in front and didn't change behind. When that happens, it's like a wheel flying off a car, so that was it gone with him.

“Ryan's [Moore] horse [Wembley (Ire) (Galileo {Ire})) ran well. He just felt when they started quickening down into the dip he got a bit disorganised. He ran here [Newmarket] before on soft ground, but it's a big difference on fast ground. I think he'll step forward a good bit from that run.”

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