Week in Review: Out of Nowhere, Rock Your World Emerges as Serious Derby Threat

When Rock Your World (Candy Ride {Arg}) won the Pasadena S. at Santa Anita Mar. 6, it appeared that he could develop into a quality turf horse, who, like many horses trained by John Sadler, would take a while to fully develop. But Sadler had other ideas. This was going to be his GI Kentucky Derby horse.

“He had always trained well on the dirt,” Sadler said. “Sometimes you run on turf when you don't think they are training well on dirt. He was training well on dirt, but we decided the way to develop him was to start him on the grass and then switch him over. Until they have run on it you can't be 100 % confident, but it wasn't like he had never trained well on the dirt.”

It was easy to overlook Rock Your World in Saturday's GI Runhappy Santa Anita Derby. He had never run on the dirt, had never run particularly fast and was going up against a Bob Baffert-trained heavy favorite in Medina Spirit (Protonico) in a race that Baffert has dominated. He easily could have been a non-factor before returning to the grass.

Based on what we saw Saturday, Rock Your World has run in his last grass race. After setting the pace, he drew off to win by 4 1/4 lengths and earn a 100 Beyer Speed Figure. With Life Is Good (Into Mischief) on the sidelines, he is the only active 3-year-old to run a figure in the triple digits. Another plus is his running style. He led every step of the way in the Santa Anita Derby under Umberto Rispoli, but doesn't have to have the lead. It's easy to envision him sitting fourth early in the Kentucky Derby, getting the ideal trip. Then there's his breeding. A mile-and-a-quarter will not be a problem.

“What I like most about my horse is with the way he is bred, we always felt the further the better,” Sadler said. “You have Empire Maker on the dam's side and Candy Ride on the top side. I really feel with the way he moves that more distance will be good for him.”

This could be the type of breakthrough 3-year-old Sadler has been waiting for since beginning his career in 1978. While he has excelled with older dirt horses, he's never had a horse good enough to make his presence felt in the Triple Crown races. Sadler is 0-for-4 in the Derby and his best finish came with Corby, who was sixth, in 1993. It took him 17 years to get back to the Derby, and his three starters since 2010 have not finished better than 13th.

“I didn't sleep last night,” Sadler said Sunday morning. “I guess that gives you an indication of how I'm feeling about this. I feel this will be the best chance I've ever had to win the Derby and that we will go in with a good horse. I feel very good about where we are at.”

As for the rest of the field in the Santa Anita Derby, it's hard to imagine anyone but Rock Your World winning at Churchill Downs. Runner-up Medina Spirit is a consistent horse, but his three second-place finishes this year indicate that he is a cut below the very best in the division. Third-place finisher Dream Shake (Twirling Candy) obviously has some talent but he has some catching up to do before he can be considered a top colt.

Essential Quality Solid in Blue Grass Win

Unless Concert Tour (Street Sense) runs a crazy good race in Saturday's GI Arkansas Derby, Essential Quality (Tapit) will be the Derby favorite, but he certainly doesn't look invincible. Not, at least, after the GII Toyota Blue Grass S.

Essential Quality is not one of those horses who ever takes your breath away, and that was again the case Saturday at Keeneland. In what was a two-horse race every step of the way, Essential Quality was able to wear down Highly Motivated (Into Mischief) in deep stretch after battling that one most of the way. He won by a neck and earned a 97 Beyer.

Will a similar effort be good enough to win the Kentucky Derby? It may. It may not. Whereas Life Is Good might have been a heavy favorite in the Derby had he stayed healthy, it looks like Essential Quality's odds will be in the 7-2 range.

Highly Motivated will also take some money at Churchill Downs and rightly so. He put up a very good fight in the Blue Grass in his first-ever start around two turns and probably hasn't run anywhere close to his best race yet. The 3-year-old colts are not normally Chad Brown's strength, but he has a good one here in Highly Motivated. Brown is 0-for-5 in the Derby.

“We hooked up at the top of the stretch and we had a good battle all the way to the wire,” said Highly Motivated's rider Javier Castellano. “He ran huge. I am very happy with my horse.”

No one else out of the Blue Grass figures to be a factor in the Derby.

A Shocker in the Wood Memorial

The GII Wood Memorial has struggled in recent years to produce top candidates for the Kentucky Derby and this year looks like it will be more of the same.

No Wood Memorial winner has won the Derby since Fusaichi Pegasus in 2000 and the last Wood starter to win the Derby was Funny Cide in 2003.

Calumet Farm has never been afraid to run big longshots in major races and it paid off Saturday at Aqueduct, where 72-1 Bourbonic (Bernardini) closed for last to win by a neck over Dynamite One (Union Rags). Both are trained by Todd Pletcher and the all-Pletcher exacta paid $906 for $2. The final time was 1:54.49, the slowest ever in the Wood, but the race was run over a very deep racetrack. He got an 89 Beyer figure.

Good job by NBC's Randy Moss, who predicted the final time would be the slowest in the race's history.

Bourbonic, who was ridden by Kendrick Carmouche, clearly took advantage of the fact that several of the top Wood contenders did not run their race. Risk Taking (Medaglia d'Oro) was seventh and the highly regarded Prevalence (Medaglia d'Oro) was sixth in his stakes debut. Crowded Trade (More Than Ready), the second choice at 5-2, ran third but was never a serious threat.

Just one week earlier, it looked like Pletcher might not have a starter in the Derby. He's started at least one horse every year since 2003. He now has four horses who have enough points to get into the Derby field. Along with the two Wood horses, he has GI Curlin Florida Derby winner Known Agenda (Curlin) and Jeff Ruby Steaks S. runner-up Sainthood (Mshawish).

In a year where so much focus has been on diversity, it will be nice to see Carmouche ride in the Derby. He will be the first African American to ride in the race since 2013 and will attempt to become the first black jockey to win it since Jimmy Winkfield in 1902.

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Week in Review: Off-Lasix 3YOs Have Now Won 25% of This Year’s Derby Preps

Besides solidifying his status as a top-tier Triple Crown threat, Saturday's win by Known Agenda (Curlin) in the GI Curlin Florida Derby bolstered the overall case that the phase-out of Lasix in this year's series of GI Kentucky Derby preps seems to be having no adverse effect on performance.

Through 20 races in North America since Jan. 1 that have awarded Derby qualifying points, horses giving up Lasix after receiving it in their prior start have won five of those races. Seven others have finished second, an impressive strike rate that equates to off-Lasix horses running first or second in 60% of those 20 stakes.

The sample–admittedly small, but growing–is comprised of 52 total starters. The winners were Known Agenda in the Florida Derby, Helium (Ironicus) in the GII Tampa Bay Derby, Candy Man Rocket (Candy Ride {Arg}) in the GIII Sam F. Davis S., Hush of a Storm (Creative Cause) in the John Battaglia Memorial S., and Capo Kane (Street Sense) in the Jerome S.

It should also be noted with an asterisk that Concert Tour (Street Sense) won the GII San Vicente S. coming off Lasix, but that key Santa Anita prep race does not award Derby qualifying points.

This year will mark the first season in which all three Triple Crown races will be conducted Lasix-free, and the majority of prep stakes for the Derby did not permit Lasix. (In the qualifying races that did permit Lasix, like the Springboard Mile S. back in December, horses could not earn points for their placings if they ran on the drug.)

Known Agenda began his career Lasix-free as a 2-year-old in New York, and he beat highly rated Greatest Honour (Tapit) back in November without the use of any race-day anti-bleeding medication. But his form slipped after that–he ran third, beaten nine lengths, in the GII Remsen S., then was the beaten favorite when fifth in the Davis S. at Tampa.

For a Feb. 26 allowance confidence-builder at Gulfstream, trainer Todd Pletcher added both blinkers and Lasix (which is permitted in non-stakes races for 3-year-olds in Florida). Known Agenda attacked with metronomic precision, then poured it on in deep stretch to win by 11 commanding lengths. The drop in class, the addition of blinkers, and the use of Lasix for the first time all likely contributed to a vastly improved performance. But it was impossible to tease out which of those factors had the most impact.

Conventional handicapping wisdom shaped by decades of Lasix usage in North American racing suggested that coming off of Lasix while stepping up to Grade I company after an allowance win by double-digit lengths the first time on that drug might not be an advantageous angle.

But as we are now seeing, convention might as well get tossed out the window, because these off-Lasix horses as an aggregate don't seem to be suffering marked declines in performance.

Known Agenda improved to a career-best Beyer Speed Figure of 94, a leap of 12 points. Four of the other off-Lasix sophomore stakes winners mentioned above also improved their Beyers when foregoing Lasix: Hush of a Storm (+12), Capo Kane (+10), Helium (+9) and Concert Tour (+6). The only off-Lasix winner to decline in terms of Beyers was Candy Man Rocket (-2).

In the interest of fairness, four other Florida Derby starters on Saturday came off Lasix after using it last time out. They ran second, fifth, sixth and ninth. So yes, for some of those horses the negative performance implications of not racing on Lasix might have been more pronounced.

Prior to the entire field not racing on Lasix on Saturday, you have to go all the way back to 2012 to find the last time a Florida Derby entrant didn't race on Lasix (Reveron, beaten just a length at 31-1 odds). Before that only one other horse in the 21st Century ran Lasix-free in the Florida Derby (an off-the-board long shot in 2001).

And we'll wrap up this discussion with a little quiz: Prior to Known Agenda, can you name the last horse to cross the Florida Derby finish wire first while running Lasix-free?

The answer is Lil's Lad in the 1998 edition. He was the only horse in that year's Florida Derby not racing on Lasix, but he got disqualified from the victory for causing interference.

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Here We Go Again: Can Anyone Beat Baffert in the Derby?

The Week in Review, by Bill Finley

The year changes and so do the names of the horses. But the story remains the same. It's no longer about beating a particular horse in the GI Kentucky Derby, it's about trying to beat the stable that has an unprecedented hammerlock on the race. Can anyone beat Bob Baffert?

After this weekend's results, it's looking more and more like that is going to be hard to do. Baffert already had the early favorite for the Derby in the ultra-talented Life Is Good (Into Mischief), who was bet down to a ridiculously low 2-1 in the Derby Future Wager. His win in the GII San Felipe S. had been the most impressive race run by a 3-year-old this year.

But now there is some competition. Concert Tour (Street Sense) ran away from seven rivals in the GII Rebel S. Saturday at Oaklawn, dominating quality horses like Caddo River (Hard Spun) and Keepmeinmind (Laoban). On paper, he looks a lot like Life Is Good. Both are unbeaten at 3-for-3, have won two stakes, and are coming off sizzling performances.

“From day one, we knew he was something special,” Baffert said of Concert Tour.

For good measure, Baffert finished second in the Rebel, a race he has won eight times since 2010, with Hozier (Pioneerof the Nile). About two and a half hours earlier, he unleashed another horse with monster potential. Triple Tap (Tapit), a half-brother to Triple Crown winner American Pharoah (Pioneerof the Nile), romped in a maiden race at Santa Anita and will, no doubt, be heard from again.

Not that any of this was any sport of surprise. What we have now is a trainer who is feasting off of his own success. As Baffert wins more and more races with top 3-year-olds, more and more owners flock to him. As more owners flock to him, the better his stable gets. Lather, rinse, repeat.

He trains for an All-Star team of owners-Godolphin, Coolmore, Gary and Mary West, Juddmonte, WinStar and China Horse Club, SF Racing, Starlight Racing and Madaket Stables, Stonestreet, Zedan Racing Stables. His barn is stocked full of the best bred, most expensive horses in racing. No one else's compares.

“You can't do it unless you gets the results and I worked hard at it,” Baffert said. “It took me years and years to get here. My program is to get young horses and try to get to the Classics and Breeders' Cup races with them. I don't train a lot of horses. I like to keep it as a very elite stable. We want to be in all the big races, all the big shows.”

But he is not going to rest on any laurels. The 2020 race to the Kentucky Derby proved that just about everything has to go right to win the Derby. Baffert won split divisions of the GI Arkansas Derby with Nadal (Blame) and Charlatan (Speightstown), Neither one made it to the Derby. Instead, Baffert came to town with two horses. After Thousand Words fell in the paddock and had to be scratched, Baffert was left with one horse. It just happened to be Authentic (Into Mischief)

“Last year I was really strong, but found out how quickly things can fall apart,” Baffert said. “So I try not to get too far ahead of myself. I was strong when I had Real Quiet (Quiet American) and Indian Charlie (In Excess {Ire}) and when I had Point Given (Thunder Gulch) and Congaree (Arazi). But these two (Life Is Good and Concert Tour) are really strong.”

Baffert has five horses among the Top 20 on the Derby points list and all five could make the race. It looks like Triple Tap won't be there. It would be very hard for a horse to make the race after debuting in mid-March. Baffert's 2018 Triple Crown winner Justify (Scat Daddy) didn't make his first start until Feb. 18, but that extra month made a world of difference as it allowed Baffert to get in preps in March and April.

“Triple Tap is a little late to the party,” he said. “It would be a little tough to make the Derby. We want to develop him the right way. If the Derby was in September again, like it was last year, we could do it. I'll have to see how he is in a couple of weeks, but I don't want to do anything rash with him. I can see him winning a Grade I stakes. He's that caliber of a horse. I just want him to develop the right way.”

Baffert said he'd like to get an allowance race into Triple Tap and, since he doesn't think such a race would fill in California, he may wind up running him next at Keeneland.

Baffert will be shooting for his seventh win in the Derby, which would move him past Ben Jones as the winningest trainer in the race's history.

“I don't think about that,” he said. “You just want to get there with a horse that has a good chance. When you go with a horse that you think has a chance to win, it's exciting. If you go with a horse who has no chance of winning it's not exciting. It might be exciting for the owner but not for me.”

At Churchill Downs, he will meet a lot of worthy opponents, a list that right now includes Essential Quality (Tapit) and Greatest Honour (Tapit). So the race isn't over. Far from it. But beating Baffert, never easy, has never looked more difficult.

A Stellar Apple Blossom

The other big winner over the weekend was GI Beholder Mile winner Swiss Skydiver (Daredevil). She looked terrific making her 4-year-old debut, easily beating back the challenge of six others, including the Baffert-trained As Time Goes By (American Pharoah). Her win sets up the potential of Swiss Skydiver-Monomoy Girl (Tapizar) II in the GI Apple Blossom S. at Oaklawn. In their first meeting in the Breeders' Cup Distaff, Swiss Skydiver lost all chance when stumbling at the start. She will be out for revenge. Monomoy Girl will be out to prove that no filly or mare can beat her. Could be some race.

Aqueduct Over the Years

Up until 1976, when the inner track was installed, Aqueduct would always open in mid-March after a winter hiatus and New York horseplayers flocked to the track for opening day. Fifty years ago, the opening day crowd, on a Monday, was 40,025. One of the big stories on the day was the increase in price for the Morning Telegraph, which preceded the Daily Racing Form. The price was hiked from 75 cents to $1. But the Aqueduct subway special was still going for $1.

Opening day was splashed all over the New York Times sports pages, which noted that Aqueduct had about twice as many fans as did a heavyweight championship fight at Madison Square Garden. Good Behaving won the featured Swift S, paying $11.80. Angel Cordero, Jr., still around as a jockey agent, rode the winner.

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Whether Riding in The Big ‘Cap or the Nightcap, Rosario Is a Master of Timing

The Week in Review, by T.D. Thornton

Generally speaking, when your horse is parked near last for most of the trip, fanned six wide on the far turn, fifth with a furlong to go, and still third 100 yards from the wire, your chances of winning are slim.

Unless Joel Rosario is riding, of course.

That was the exact scenario facing Idol (Curlin) in deep stretch of Saturday's GI Santa Anita H. at Santa Anita Park. Yet “Judicious Joel,” who at age 36 is without fanfare blossoming into the absolute master of timing in modern American racing, was once again confidently capable of snatching victory from the jaws of defeat.

If and when in-race wagering arrives on a large scale here in the States, discerning bettors are going to make a killing taking vastly overlaid odds on the late runners that Rosario rides, knowing that if the horse has it in him to close a seemingly insurmountable gap, Rosario is going to elicit that effort in the most efficient way possible.

Yes, the “Big 'Cap” has lost some of its luster over the last several decades because of the glut of global big-money races now scheduled during the first quarter of the year.

In 1996, the “world's richest race” lure of the G1 Dubai World Cup first made a dent in the stature of North America's premier dirt race for older horses.

Then the 2017 advent of the GI Pegasus World Cup at Gulfstream Park coincided with The Stronach Group's trimming of the Big Cap's purse at sister track Santa Anita from its $1-million level and the selling of the race's sponsorship rights to a casino.

The arrival of the $20-million Saudi Cup in 2020 further crowded the international calendar at the Big 'Cap's expense. The 2021 edition run 10 days ago siphoned away America's top two older dirt males, Knicks Go (Paynter) and Charlatan (Speightstown), the latter of whom is stabled right at Santa Anita but instead shipped hallway around the planet to run for absurdly more purse money.

Yet even diminished, the Big 'Cap still resonates at a certain level of importance. Just ask an emotional Richard Baltas, Idol's trainer, who had to compose himself before saying in the winner's circle interview that “I've been coming here since I was 13 years old. Before I even got to be a horse trainer, I saw all the greats run here in the Big 'Cap and you never think that you're going to be here, but you keep working hard and God blessed you.”

Idol ended up winning the Big 'Cap by a well-timed half a length, which is a comparatively wide margin of victory for Rosario in Santa Anita's showcase race, which he has now won three years in a row.

In 2020, Rosario was aboard Combatant (Scat Daddy), who won the Big 'Cap by a neck with a stalking trip and a four-wide sweep off the turn.

In 2019, partnering with Gift Box (Twirling Candy), Rosario forced the issue on the front end, then held off a late charge by the 2-5 favorite to prevail by a nose.

The Big 'Cap victory Saturday boosted Rosario's wins in graded stakes races in 2021 to nine. You'd have to add together the totals of his next two closest rivals (Irad Ortiz Jr. and Luis Saez, who have five each) to top that fast start through the first 11 weeks of the year.

When Rosario doesn't win a graded stakes, he's infrequently far off the hunt. He's hit the board with nine other graded stakes mounts, which puts him at an ultra-impressive nation-leading 18-for-24 (75%) in-the-money clip among jockeys with at least 10 graded stakes starts.

Overall, those nine graded stakes wins account for 28% of all of Rosario's 32 victories this season so far.

“I knew [Idol] wanted all of a mile and a quarter, and the jockey made a bit of a difference too,” Baltas said. “We needed all of Rosario's power in the stretch to get him home.”

But while Baltas emphasized Rosario's strength, that's only part of his skill set. Even more remarkable is how Rosario meshes that power with patience.

He's also one of the most selective riders in the game about employing his stick. Although no one keeps statistics on this sort of thing, I'd be willing to wager that Rosario leads the nation in cocking his crop, looking back quickly to get a sense of where his stretch competition is, then putting the whip away after making a split-second decision that it's not needed.

Barely a half-hour after his emphatic win aboard Idol, Rosario gave another prime example of how to eke out a victory in disciplined fashion.

Riding the layoff maiden Defunded (Dialed In), Rosario sat chilly while eighth in a 12-horse field, biding his time atop a second-time starter who had been fractious as the beaten favorite under another jockey in his only other start.

Nudged to pick up the pace around the far turn, Defunded quickly inhaled half the field and had built enough steam to launch into contention at the top of the stretch. But he bumped and brushed repeatedly while bulling through traffic, and Rosario had to snatch his mount off the heels of a tiring foe, a move that might have been a momentum-staller for other riders.

Yet Rosario deftly kept his mount focused and barreling forward onward under a hand ride without overreacting and resorting to the whip. The pair coasted home to a measured half-length win at 8-1 odds, underscoring that whether it's the Big 'Cap or just an ordinary nightcap, “Judicious Joel” is truly on a roll.

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