War of Will | Horse Racing Free Tips

Mating Plans: Jason Hall

With the 2022 breeding season right around the corner, we will feature a series of breeders' mating plans over the coming weeks. Today we have Jason Hall.

“My partners and I typically breed to sell, primarily at the 2-year-old sales,” said Hall, “but if we have one that looks the part, we'll sell the occasional weanling at Keeneland November. That being said, if we feel like the market is being overly critical and we see some blue sky by going to the races with one, we're not afraid to go that route. We like mares that demonstrated some degree of talent, and we focus heavily on physical compatibility between the stallion and mare.”

AFFIANCED (m, 5, More Than Ready–All Star Heart, by Arch), to be bred to Authentic

We purchased Affianced at the recent Keeneland November Sale from Claiborne Farm for $50,000 in foal to First Samurai. A former $410,000 Keeneland September yearling, Affianced is a stellar physical with exceptional balance. While she doesn't have the type of racing credentials we typically pursue, she flashed enough talent in her Santa Anita maiden score to prompt our interest. She's out of a GII-winning Arch mare and is a half-sister to California stakes horse Eccentric Spinster (Distorted Humor). Her progeny will catalog well, so we decided to swing hard and send her to Authentic, who will undoubtedly be a source of commercial home runs. Authentic adds a lot of leg to the equation, something you always have to be mindful of with the More Than Ready influence. As tremendous as he's been as a sire, More Than Ready isn't known for adding leg to his mares.

BACK AT THE RANCH (m, 9, Artie Schiller–Major Allie, by Officer), to be bred to Justify

We purchased Back At the Ranch very inexpensively at the conclusion of her career shortly before her half-brother, Cistron (The Factor), won the GI Bing Crosby S. at Del Mar. She herself won early sprinting at Belmont for Wesley Ward, and went on to win four of 14 and earn $103,185. With the Grade I update under her first dam, we felt like she warranted a season with Improbable last year, and Justify this year. At this stage, I don't think we have to remedy any physical shortcomings while planning her matings, but of course, that could change when her first foals arrive. She's a big, strong mare with lots of balance and curb appeal, so we can go in a lot of directions with her. Justify is as good a physical specimen as we've ever laid eyes on, so on paper at least, this foal should be a standout individual.

BE A LADY (m, 9, Cindago–Storm Hearted, by Lion Hearted), to be bred to More Than Ready

Be a Lady is probably the tallest horse we've ever owned. I believe the farm measured her out at 17.1 after we purchased her for $35,000 at the 2019 Keeneland November Sale. She earned $186,995 sprinting in Southern California, comes from an active family (she's a full-sister to California stakes winner and track record holder Wake Up Nick), and her sire is off to a stellar beginning as a broodmare sire. We kept her with a bigger stallion her first season (Violence), as even big mares can throw a pony their first year. But since then, we've kept her with small/medium types. Given the quality we've seen in her Violence and Jimmy Creed foals, we felt like she warranted an opportunity with an elite sire like More Than Ready, who usually benefits from mares with a lot of leg and scope.

CHU AND YOU (m, 11, You and I–Bronze Charmer, by Volponi), to be bred to Temple City

My wife purchased this mare's Temple City yearling for $27,000 at Keeneland September in 2020. Now named Boise, he won the Gold Rush S. at Golden Gate in December and will run in the El Camino Real on Feb. 12. We were really high on him from the start. So much so that we reached out to his breeders and purchased his dam privately. Rather than overthink things, we decided to send her back to Temple City this year to get a full-sibling to Boise. Chu and You isn't very big, but of course, Temple City and the Dynaformer influence usually compliment smaller mares quite well. You couldn't ask for a better physical than Boise, so we're bullish on going to the well again. At the recent Keeneland January sale, we acquired Chu and You's half-sister, Attyia (Dialed In), who will also visit Temple City this year.

PATTITUDE (m, 10, City Zip–Dancinandsingin, by A.P. Indy), to be bred to War of Will

Within months of acquiring her at the 2021 Fasig-Tipton Mixed Sale, two new stakes winners emerged in her immediate family: Army Wife (Declaration of War), who won the GII Black-Eyed Susan S., and Ellamira (Street Boss), who won the Golden Gate Debutante. Pattitude was already a half to [GSW & MGISP] Scherzinger (Tiz Wonderful) and to the dam of [GSW & GISP] Kitten's Roar (Kitten's Joy), so it's an extremely active family that will really light up a catalog page. Like a lot of City Zips, it's usually best to keep them with stallions that are solid through the hindquarters and have plenty of size/leg, which is why we sent her to Flatter last year and will send her back to War of Will in 2022.

ROLL YOUR EYES (m, 13, Popular–Officer Lea, by Nodouble), to be bred to Mineshaft

At the very end of her career, we acquired Roll Your Eyes for nothing more than a ham sandwich. She was a smallish mare with a top line that had gotten progressively softer during her racing days, but we liked her California stakes form early in her career (she had finished second in the Wine Country Debutante S. at Santa Rosa as a 2-year-old), and she was particularly strong through her forearm, gaskins, and hindquarters. We've gotten nothing but stunning foals from her thus far including a stakes horse (Film Study {Custom for Carlos}) and recent maiden special weight winner in California, Fascinated (Majesticperfection). She's currently in foal to Vekoma and will visit Mineshaft in 2022. Mineshaft is a sire that is well respected in all circles and usually benefits from more powerfully built mares like Roll Your Eyes.

Let us know who you're breeding your mares to in 2022, and why. We will print a selection of your responses in TDN over the coming weeks. Please send details to: garyking@thetdn.com.

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Breezers At Stud Testament To Quality On Offer

The European breeze-up sector prides itself as a source of quality, a notion that held particular weight in 2021 as graduates Native Trail (Fr) (Oasis Dream {GB}) and Perfect Power (Ire) (Ardad {Ire}) signed off their juvenile campaigns with victories in the G1 Dewhurst S. and G1 Middle Park S.

Added to that, various graduates are currently more than holding their own at stud. This isn't a new development–older representatives such as Society Rock (Ire) (Rock Of Gibraltar {Ire}) and Paco Boy (Ire) (Desert Style {Ire}) each sired Group 1 winners in their first crops–but it is one that has gained real momentum in the past few years and, as such, the breeze-up industry heads into 2022 on a particularly strong footing when it comes to advertising itself as a source of successful stallions.

Of course, a horse good enough to take up a place at stud can come from anywhere, whether it be as the product of an owner/breeder or a purchase at auction. However, there are some factors at play that may explain the breeze-up sector's growing influence.

Firstly, pinhookers naturally target horses that will come to hand relatively early, or at least stand up to the rigours of early training. They are widely regarded as excellent judges of young horses; after all, they are often spending their own money, making the need for a good-looking, well-balanced horse imperative.

As a result, a number of the horses that go through the breeze-up system will be bred to be quick and/or possess the early physical strength to hold commercial appeal. Graduates such as A'Ali (Ire) (Society Rock {Ire}), Ardad (Ire) (Kodiac {GB}), Dream Ahead (Diktat {GB), Mehmas (Ire) (Acclamation {GB}), Prince Of Lir (Ire) (Kodiac {GB}), Sands Of Mali (Fr) (Panis) and Ubettabelieveit (Ire) (Kodiac {GB}), all of whom shone over sprint distances at two, fall into that category as does Far Above (Ire) (Farhh {GB}), who captured the G3 Palace House S. as a 4-year-old before retiring to Starfield Stud.

As we know, such precocity and speed is coveted by the stallion market. Throw in the likelihood of the horse in question being a correct and athletic individual and the opportunities are immediately there for him to take up stallion duties as a commercial prospect.

Kodiac in Demand

That is also particularly true if the horse is a son of Kodiac (Danehill). The Tally-Ho Stud stalwart is a favourite among breeze-up buyers for his ability to throw sharp, fast individuals and given his recent emergence as an accomplished sire of sires, it is no surprise to see several of his stakes-producing sons sit at the forefront of the breeze-up sire movement, notably Ardad, Prince Of Lir and Adaay (Ire). Of Kodiac's others sons, Kodi Bear (Ire) has been represented by the talented breezers Go Bears Go (Ire), himself surely in line for a place at stud as a Group 2-winning 2-year-old, and Mystery Angel (Ire), while Coulsty (Ire) is sire of the top American filly Shantisara (Ire), another breezer.

It was arguably the emergence of Ardad as Britain's leading first-crop sire for Overbury Stud last season that set the seal on Kodiac's arrival as a noted sire of sires.

Winner of the G2 Flying Childers S. for John Gosden following his purchase for £170,000 by Blandford Bloodstock at the 2016 Goffs UK Breeze-Up Sale, it stood to reason that Ardad would throw fast runners and so it proved, with Perfect Power and G3 winner Eve Lodge (GB) contributing to an excellent first crop that currently contains 23 winners.

As such, last season's sales saw him return a yearling average of 53,516gns–a rise of 246% from 2020–while the stallion himself earned a fee increase to £12,500 from £4,000.

There are shades of Ardad in Mickley Stud's new recruit Ubettabelieveit, another Kodiac breezer who won the G2 Flying Childers S. Ubettabelieveit was a 50,000gns Tattersalls October Book 1 purchase by the dynamic duo of Roger Marley and John Cullinan of Church Farm and Horse Park Stud. All was going well for them with the colt until Covid hit and ravaged the 2020 breeze-up season. Consequently, Ubettabelieveit was sold privately to trainer Nigel Tinkler on behalf of Martin Webb Racing.

“I'd seen the horse in Book 1 but had left to go home,” recalls Cullinan. “Roger rang me and said that this horse seemed to be falling through the cracks and that we should have a go. I'd no problem buying a Kodiac, as he's been very good to us, and this horse had a fast look to him.

“He showed plenty of boot from an early stage. I remember Nigel rang looking for something so he went to Roger's, rode two of them himself and picked Ubettabelieveit.”

Webb and Richard Kent of Mickley Stud were busy at the sales stocking up on mares to send to Ubettabelieveit, who stands for £5,000. However, he has also attracted plenty of outside interest.

“He's gone down very well,” says Kent. “Some shrewd Irish breeders have bought into him.

“Every day you open the paper and a son of Kodiac has had another winner. They seem to have this unusual aspect where they have loads of speed and a very good temperament. The two don't often go together–it's more speed and lunacy. We'll be supporting him with 40 mares of our own. It's stuck with me how they have always done it at Tally-Ho. I remember Tony O'Callaghan saying that if you can't support them yourself, then how can you expect others to do so?”

Speed aligned with a sober temperament is also a major key to Mehmas. Like Ubettabelieveit, the son of Acclamation is a graduate of Church Farm and Horse Park, having been sourced as a yearling for 62,000gns. He went on to resell for 170,000gns to Peter and Ross Doyle on behalf of Al Shaqab Racing at the Tattersalls Craven Sale and sent to Richard Hannon, won less than a month later at Chester. Victories in the G2 July S. and G2 Richmond S. followed as well as placings in the G1 National S. and G1 Middle Park S. before his retirement ahead of his 3-year-old year to Tally-Ho Stud.

Today, Mehmas boasts 16 stakes winners headed by the Group/Grade 1 winners Supremacy (Ire) and Going Global (Ire), and is the champion first- and second-crop sire of his generation. A revelation at stud, his success has been achieved off fees of €10,000 and €12,500, and he will stand for €50,000 in 2022.

“Mehmas never gave any impression that he was smart when I had him as he was so laid back,” says Cullinan. “When I sent him over to Roger, I said to him that I thought there was some improvement to be had but it was hard to tell as he was completely horizontal. Then when he was first asked to quicken, he went whoosh.

“Hannon asked me when he'd bought him whether he should give him a break but I said no, kick on and run him. He ran him at Chester about only 20 days afterwards, which he won, and then he won again about ten days after that at Newbury.

“I remember seeing him the day after he won the Richmond and it was like he was out on a pony trek. It's that attitude that he puts into his stock. If there's three in a line with a furlong to go, I know I'd like to be backing the Mehmas because they put their head down and try for you.”

Support for A'Ali

Tally-Ho is rarely far from the action as far as breeze-ups are concerned, whether as the home of Mehmas or the vendors of such accomplished runners as Ardad, Perfect Power and Dream Ahead, himself the sire of four Group 1 winners who has relocated to Bearstone Stud for 2022.

The stud also bred A'Ali, another fast horse who is new to Newsells Park Stud at a fee of £7,500. Like his sire Society Rock, A'Ali was a breeze-up purchase by Anthony Stroud, in his case for £135,000 from Star Bloodstock at Goffs UK in 2019. Sent to Simon Crisford, he swept the G2 Norfolk S., G2 Prix Robert Papin and G2 Flying Childers S. at two and trained on to win the G3 Coral Charge and G2 Sapphire S. at three.

“He really was an admirable performer,” says Julian Dollar, general manager of Newsells Park Stud. “He's a neat, straightforward horse and I'm told he was well recommended at the breeze-ups by Matt Eves and Byron Rogers [of Star Bloodstock], where he set a good time.

“He danced every dance at two and turned up again at three. He's got an excellent temperament, he's a very enthusiastic character, and if he throws that, his progeny will have a fighting chance.

“He'll be well supported. We're planning to send Maureen, a fast Group 3 winner, as well as My Special J's, who won the Debutante and is a stakes producer, and Pelerin, a stakes-winning Shamardal mare. We also bought a mare last year called Pretty In Grey–she is a listed-placed half-sister to Lady Bowthorpe and she will go to A'Ali as well.”

Outside mares slated to visit A'Ali also include the listed scorers Riskit Fora Biskit (Ire) (Kodiac {GB}) and Fig Roll (GB) (Bahamian Bounty {GB}), herself dam of Group 3 winner Al Raya (Siyouni {Fr}).

Bansha Gems

A productive association between Stroud Coleman Bloodstock and the breeze-ups also includes Group 1-winning sprinter Sands Of Mali, one of the highlights of the 2017 Tattersalls Ascot Breeze-Up Sale when purchased by the agency for £75,000, and G2 Norfolk S. winner Prince Of Lir, who sold for £170,000 at Goffs UK in 2016. Both were purchased on behalf of the Cool Silk Partnership, sold by Bansha House Stables and now form part of the roster at Ballyhane Stud.

Prince Of Lir sired G2 Norfolk S. winner The Lir Jet (Ire) in his first crop while Sands Of Mali covered 152 mares in his first season in 2021 at €6,500.

“I just loved Sands Of Mali,” says their consignor Con Marnane. “I'd had his brother Kadrizzi, who had been very fast, so I knew the family, and then Sands Of Mali was this big, gorgeous yearling, very imposing.

“I remember he was one of the first ones to breeze that day at Ascot. It was very bad weather and he had hail stones hitting his head, yet he still did a very good breeze.”

He adds, “I've sent a couple of mares to him. I'm a big fan and if they have anything like his temperament and will to win, they'll be ok.”

Marnane is also looking forward to seeing how another former graduate Robin Of Navan (Fr) (American Post {GB}) performs at stud. Also purchased by Stroud Coleman, in his case as an Arqana breezer, he went on to win the G1 Criterium de Saint-Cloud for Harry Dunlop and now stands at Haras de la Barbottiere in France alongside fellow Group 1-winning breezer Donjuan Triumphant (Ire) (Dream Ahead), a graduate of Lynn Lodge Stud.

French breeders also have access to G1 Prix du Jockey Club winner The Grey Gatsby (Ire) (Mastercraftsman {Ire}), a graduate of Grove Stud who threw last year's German listed winner Mylady (Ger) from his first crop for Haras du Petit Tellier, and G1 Poule d'Essai des Poulains runner-up Le Brivido (Fr) (Siyouni {Fr}), who holds court at Haras de la Haie Neuve.

France was also formerly home to The Wow Signal (Ire) (Starspangledbanner {Aus}). Compromised by fertility problems, the ill-fated stallion sired last year's G1 Poule d'Essai des Pouliches heroine Coeursamba (Fr).

American Influence

European breezers have traditionally fared well in the US–think War Of Will (War Front), Ete Indien (Summer Front), Rockemperor (Ire) (Holy Roman Emperor {Ire) and Mr. Monomoy (Palace Malice)–and in return, they now exert a growing presence within the American stallion ranks.

Chief among them is Claiborne Farm's War Of Will. Bred in Kentucky by Flaxman Holdings Ltd from their famous Aviance family, War Of Will was pinhooked by Norman Williamson out of the Keeneland September Sale and reoffered at the Arqana May Breeze-up, where he was sold to Justin Casse on behalf of Gary Barber and returned to the States.

Under the care of Mark Casse, he developed into a top-flight and versatile performer, winning the GI Preakness S. on dirt and GI Maker's Mark Mile on turf.

He sits among a clutch of top-class performers to pass through the hands of Williamson's Oak Tree Farm, which hit Group 1 heights again last year as the vendor of unbeaten champion 2-year-old Native Trail. Williamson also pinhooked and sold Australian Group 1 winner Contributor (Fr) (High Chaparral {Ire}), now a young Group 1 sire at Mapperley Stud in New Zealand.

“War Of Will was a half-brother to Pathfork, a very good 2-year-old in Ireland, and so I thought the pedigree might translate well over here,” recalls Williamson. “He had a backward look to him as a yearling but I still thought he would make plenty. When he didn't sell, I went straight back to them and luckily was able to come to a deal.

“He was a big horse even then, very well-balanced with a good shoulder and a big stride on him. Even though he was big, he still packed a fair bit in as a 2-year-old–he was second in the Grade I in Canada [Summer S.] and beaten only three lengths in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf, so that just tells you how good he was. And then of course, he went on to win his Grade Is as an older horse.”

War Of Will was very popular in his first season at $25,000, covering 143 mares–a Claiborne record–to place him in a strong position to extend Danzig's legacy at the farm.

“We had been looking for the heir apparent to War Front and we believe War Of Will could fill that void,” says Walker Hancock, president of Claiborne Farm. “War Front has 15 sons who have sired stakes winners and War Of Will is arguably his most accomplished son with the strongest pedigree.

“He also fits my grandfather's criteria to a tee; he showed precocious juvenile form by being a Grade I performer at two, he won an American Classic at three, trained on to win a Grade I at four, has a fantastic pedigree and is a strong physical to match.

“It's amazing how similar he is to War Front. They have the same physical from the side, with War Of Will being half a hand taller at 16.2. We expect his offspring to be just bigger models than the normal War Fronts, which is often his only critique.”

Grade I versatility also underpins the race record of Taylor Made Stallions' Mshawish (Medaglia d'Oro). He was a good pinhook for Johnny Collins of Brown Island Stables, blossoming from a $10,000 yearling into a €170,000 breezer and, like War Of Will, pulled off the notable feat of scoring at the top level on dirt and turf as winner of the GI Donn H. and GI Gulfstream Park Turf H.

That theme of versatility is now shining through at stud, with his first crop headlined by French Group 3 winner Bellharbour Music, another European breezer, and G3 Pennine Ridge S. winner Sainthood. He also boasts a promising British-based runner in three-time scorer Mobashr, fittingly also a Brown Island pinhook.

New York, meanwhile, is home to the Mocklershill graduate Mr. Monomoy. Another Arqana May breezer, the half-brother to Monomoy Girl (Tapizar) returned to the U.S. upon a bid of €180,000 from Mandore International and went on to win the 2020 GII Risen Star S. at Fair Grounds. He is about to commence his second season at Waldorf Farm.

There was an era when breeze-ups, certainly those in Europe, were viewed primarily as a last chance to move young stock on, an idea that today firmly lives in the past. However, it is also a testament to the relentless improvement in the quality of horses on offer that they today are viewed as a legitimate source of successful stallions. Who knows, perhaps another Mehmas or Ardad is lurking within this year's collection.

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Taking Stock: Danzig Legacy at Claiborne

Claiborne's been running an eye-catching ad on its two young sires War of Will (War Front) and Silver State (Hard Spun) that ties them to their illustrious Claiborne-based grandsire Danzig, under the heading, “The Danzig Legacy continues at Claiborne.”

What really hits home about this ad is that Danzig's legacy in North America is now limited to two stallions, Claiborne's War Front and Darley's Hard Spun, and their sons. In contrast, Danzig is a massive sire-line influence in Europe and Australasia through many different strains, led by Danehill but also including Green Desert (Danzig), through such as Cape Cross (Ire) (Green Desert), Invincible Spirit (Ire) (Green Desert), Sea the Stars (Ire) (Cape Cross), Kingman (GB) (Invincible Spirit), etc.

Abroad, Danzig has also been equally as powerful as a broodmare sire line, again headed by Danehill, whose daughters have had terrific success with Galileo (Ire) (Sadler's Wells) and other sons of Sadler's Wells.

The outstanding example of this cross is Frankel (GB) (Galileo {Ire}), from the Danehill mare Kind (Ire). In fact, Galileo is the sire of 58 black-type winners from Danehill mares–an outstanding 18% black type winners to foals–and there are many others bred on this pattern when including granddaughters of Danehill or mares by other strains of Danzig.

What is also notable about this nick is that it's a sire-line cross of Northern Dancer, because both Danzig and Sadler's Wells were sons of his. Statistically, sire-line crosses–when the sire and the broodmare are members of the same line–tend not to be the most successful, but that's not the case when Danzig and Sadler's Wells are involved.

Danzig was bred by Marshall Jenney's Derry Meeting Farm and Lane's End's W.S. Farish, but stood at Claiborne, which had a relationship to Sadler's Wells. Bred by Robert Sangster's Swettenham Stud and partners, Sadler's Wells's dam, Fairy Bridge (Bold Reason), was bred by Claiborne, which also bred Sadler's Wells's three-quarter brother Nureyev, another outstanding son of Northern Dancer. And speaking of the great Canadian-bred stallion, Claiborne also stood Northern Dancer's best racing son, Nijinsky II, who was an outstanding stallion in his own right.

It's common nowadays to find multiple crosses to Northern Dancer in pedigrees, and this is the case with both War of Will and Silver State. The former, who is out of a Sadler's Wells mare, has four strains (Danzig, Nijinsky, Sadler's Wells, and Northfields), while the latter has three (Danzig, El Gran Senor, and Dixieland Band).

Danzig is frequently the common thread in horses with multiple crosses to Northern Dancer, and that's probably because he injects more “trans-brilliant” speed–Franco Varola called that speed that blends with other aptitudes–than any other son of Northern Dancer. There are more than 1,000 Grade I/Group 1 winners that include Danzig with multiple strains of Northern Dancer in their pedigrees, and that about proves the point, doesn't it?

The puzzle, of course, is why Danzig, who started out with three Grade l winners in his first crop, including Gl Breeders' Cup Juvenile winner and champion 2-year-old colt Chief's Crown, and who led the general sire list in 1991, 1992 and 1993, never found the continuing sire-line success in North America that he's had overseas, until War Front and Hard Spun appeared late in his career.

And these two, as the Claiborne ad notes, could be the source for rejuvenating the legacy of their grandsire on this continent.

War Front is a foal of 2002 and Hard Spun was born two years later–the year Danzig was pensioned after covering mares that spring. Both went to stud after many other sons of Danzig had fired their best shots, and though several Danzig stallions had had intermittent success over here, none rose to the level of their foreign-based counterparts until these two arrived.

War Front, who was bred and raced by Joe Allen, has been an exceptional stallion in particular. Coolmore was quick to recognize his potential, and the Irish farm sent Galileo mares to him after the early success their star sire Galileo was enjoying with Danehill. This reverse cross of Danzig/Galileo through War Front is responsible for 11 black–type winners (11% from foals), including several Group 1 winners. Most of the success for this combination has come in Europe, where turf is the main racing surface, which the Danzigs reveled.

Early on, War Front was quickly labeled a high-class turf stallion, but just as his own sire succeeded on North American dirt, so too has War Front, when given opportunity.

A prime example is War of Will. Bred by European entity Flaxman Holdings, War of Will is from Visions of Clarity (Ire), a daughter of Sadler's Wells, and she descends from blue hen Broodmare of the Year Best in Show. On a surface reading of his pedigree, War of Will was destined for success on the turf. War Front has sired seven black=type winners from Sadler's Wells-line mares (21% to foals), and all seven were stakes winners on turf, and one of those–Gl Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf winner Hit It a Bomb, at stud at Spendthrift–was a stakes winner on all-weather, too.

War of Will is the exception. Though he was Grade I-placed on turf at two, he won the Gl Preakness S. at three on dirt, and at four he won the Gl Maker's Mark Mile S. on turf. Altogether, he won five of 18 starts and earned $1.9 million, and his success in a Classic on dirt gives him all the credentials he needs to succeed in North America on dirt. The same could be said for War Front's high-class Spendthrift-based son Omaha Beach, who was also a dirt horse and a multiple Grade l winner.

Hard Spun is a very good and reliable stallion, standing for about a third of War Front's fee. He was also a better racehorse than War Front, and he's shown an ability to get quality dirt horses, such as Grade l winners Questing (GB) (a champion), Wicked Strong, Aloha West, Hard Aces, Spun to Run (at stud at Gainesway), Zo Impressive, Out for a Spin and Smooth Roller in addition to Silver State.

Silver State was bred by Stonestreet, one of the best breeders in Kentucky; raced by Winchell Thoroughbreds, in partnership with Willis Horton; and trained by Steve Asmussen. Winchell and Asmussen combined to race Gun Runner, and now they are behind the success of most of his 2-year-olds. Winchell is also behind Tapit. Stonestreet's list of sire successes begins with Curlin but also extends to several others, including Maclean's Music and Kantharos.

Silver State is from the black-type winner and Grade lll-placed Empire Maker mare Supreme from the immediate family of Gl Kentucky Derby winner Monarchos. He's a winner of seven of 14 starts and $1.9 million, including the Gl Metropolitan H., long considered a sire-making race.

Claiborne, therefore, has two Grade l dirt winners from the Danzig line, by Danzig's only two major sons currently at stud in North America, and both of them are highly credentialed.

These two young horses put Claiborne very much in position to continue Danzig's legacy in North America.

Sid Fernando is president and CEO of Werk Thoroughbred Consultants, Inc., originator of the Werk Nick Rating and eNicks.

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Value Sires, Part II: First Foals in ’22

Even last year, when doing so much to fortify breeders through the uncertainties of the pandemic, stallion farms appeared to price their rookies to squeeze the usual juice from the commercial market's greatest addiction.

That was fair enough. Nowadays farm accountants can bank only on the most fleeting of vogues in drawing up a business plan for stallion acquisitions. And nor can we sensibly expect any slack now, pending the arrival of first foals and then a debut at the weanling sales next fall. A stallion has to be in pretty obvious trouble to have his fee significantly trimmed for his second season, as a candid devaluation will be received as a blatant kick by those who were prepared to assist in getting him going.

In principle, then, not a great deal can have changed since we first sieved this group last winter. Certainly I can't imagine anyone pays the remotest attention to “covering sire” averages, which are so transparently incidental to the inherent value of such mares as randomly happen to be offered. The one new ingredient in play, then, tends to be the size of debut books.

For the vast majority, in numerical terms, the only way from here is down. As such, the covering stats do not augur terribly well for some of those we thought best value. And maddeningly, because these cycles are so self-fulfilling, it's hard to turn things round if you do struggle for early traction. A disappointing first book places a tough burden on its graduates to get you over the hump of the intervening couple of crops, which will tend to be smaller yet. So our faith in one or two, while undiminished, may not obviously yield “value” in the shorter term. If fairly priced now, at least measured by your odds of getting a runner, they are probably going to become better value yet during the next year or two.

At the other end of the spectrum, though the most expensive of the intake, Horse of the Year Authentic covered as many as 229 mares–only one fewer than the busiest stallion in the land, Goldencents. (Both, of course, are sons of Into Mischief standing alongside their champion sire at Spendthrift.) A number of other start-ups also welcomed enormous books: Vekoma 222, McKinzie 214, Instagrand 190, Thousand Words 184, Volatile 181, and Global Campaign and Improbable 177 apiece. One way or another, then, some highly eligible prospects are going to have their work cut out to match the kind of freshman headlines some of these rivals are bound to seize through sheer weight of numbers.

So between these high-water marks, and those struggling near the storm drain, where can we still seek a rising tide? Here are one or two thoughts–as subjective as ever, and with due apology to the many promising types overlooked in our more concise new format.

Bubbling under: Hard to know whether a commercial market so childishly nervous of grass influences will do adequate justice to a great opportunity in War of Will (War Front). But it's hugely encouraging that this Grade I winner on both dirt and turf, by a son of one breed-shaper out of the daughter of another, was overrun with 143 partners at $25,000: by the laudably conservative standards of his farm, an outright stampede. War of Will merits close consideration by European breeders, too, with every right to become a valuable international influence.

Vekoma (Candy Ride {Arg}) has been given a trademark Spendthrift launch with a monster book at $20,000. All farms that operate this kind of system obviously offer yearling sellers a double-edged sword, but Vekoma, from the family of Street Sense and Danehill Dancer (Ire) among others, represents a promising sire of sires and can certainly recycle a ton of speed and class. Of those who corralled such big numbers, this guy looks value to make them count–even before a friendly trim to $17,500.

One of the most controversial races in Derby history, in contrast, is struggling for commercial credibility. But you can't have it both ways: if some people have decided to punish the hapless Maximum Security (who gets a fee cut) for allegations against his trainer, then at least they should give Country House (Lookin At Lucky) due respect. As it is, he was unlucky to be denied the opportunity of authenticating his breakthrough; and nor did he then get quite the numbers he deserved when sent to Darby Dan at just $7,500. Someday, perhaps, he will finally get some overdue credit by proxy, and sire a colt to pass the Derby post first. Inbred to the Sam-Son matriarch No Class, that's something he is absolutely entitled to do and, like his sire, he remains excellent value for those of sufficiently independent outlook.

Global Campaign | Sarah Andrew

Bronze: GLOBAL CAMPAIGN (Curlin–Globe Trot, by A.P. Indy)
$12,500 WinStar

I suspect that this guy is going to prove a brisker influence in his new career than might be anticipated. Yes, he was unraced at two (albeit only by a matter of days, scoring on debut Jan. 5); and nor did he try Grade I company until his last two starts at four, when winning the Woodward and outrunning his odds for third in the Breeders' Cup Classic. But if people won't be expecting too much, too soon, from a son of Curlin whose first two dams are by A.P. Indy and Lord At War (Arg)–both, incidentally, stellar distaff influences–this is a family that can inject surprising doses of speed.

That second dam, herself a three-time graded stakes winner, is a half-sister to the dam of Zensational (Unbridled's Song), whose three Grade I sprints qualify him as the fastest son of his sire. The next dam was a half-sister to the dams of one sprinter that broke the five-furlong track record at Churchill, and of another that did the same over six furlongs (turf) at Woodbine. And of course Global Campaign's half-brother Bolt d'Oro was hardly a standard issue Medaglia d'Oro (not that there's any such thing, really) in featuring a 103 Beyer in his champion juvenile campaign. Sure enough, Global Campaign outpaced a smart sprinter in Yorkton (Speightstown) over seven furlongs at Gulfstream on his 4-year-old comeback, and I have a hunch that he didn't quite last home at the Breeders' Cup. Having controlled the tempo when winning over nine furlongs, I wonder how he might have fared given more of a chance at a mile.

Regardless, a debut book of 177 is a major leg-up, and due reward for realistic pricing. I'm not saying that Global Campaign will necessarily have loads of precocious juveniles, but expect him to achieve a viable base and then to consolidate. Factor in his fee, and he rather sets himself apart from those with even bigger books: most are more expensive, and others don't obviously match his eligibility to sire the type of horses we should all be looking for.

Honor A. P. | Amy Lanigan

Silver: HONOR A. P. (Honor Code–Hollywood Story, by Wild Rush)
$15,000 Lane's End

Still fantastic value, still a whole lot of racehorse for this money. And I cling stubbornly to the belief that he was as talented as any of his generation, beating the Horse of the Year on merit the only time they met properly toe-to-toe (undercooked for their first encounter; undone by a shocking trip in their third).

The only reason he doesn't retain the top step is that a book of 110, which should be ample in a sane world, may contain some that emulate their sire in only really announcing themselves round a second turn, and maybe with a little maturity too (bearing in mind that imposing physique). The book of 190 assembled by the precocious Instagrand, for instance, is presumably more likely to produce maiden winners at Keeneland's spring meet. It's possible, then, that the notoriously myopic commercial market might not grant Honor A. P. due attention until the playing field starts to level out.

Once through that crossroads, however, those who do hang in there will definitely have the last laugh. And remember that a horse this beautiful, in the meantime, almost guarantees a home run or two at the sales. Honor A. P. must have been close to the most prodigious physical of the crop, as measured by his $850,000 yearling tag; while his dam won Grade Is at two and five, a comfort in view of the way his own light career restricted wider appreciation of his talent. She has also contributed three other black-type operators to a branch of the Myrtlewood dynasty (Global Campaign, incidentally, represents another) that has been seeded pretty seamlessly by venerable Classic influences.

Honor A. P. absolutely merits fidelity, and will someday make this fee look like a gift.

Complexity | Sarah Andrew

Gold: COMPLEXITY (Maclean's Music–Goldfield, by Yes It's True)
$12,500 Airdrie

How does Complexity elbow his way right through to the top of the podium? Not too complex, really. For one thing, his farewell performance in the GI Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile has obtained a fresh luster: trying to lie up with Knicks Go (Paynter) from a wide draw, through opening splits of 22.15 and 22.39 (producing a faster six furlongs than in the Sprint on the same card), has turned out to be a still tougher ask than it seemed at the time–especially round a second turn, which was probably not Complexity's true metier. This time last year, moreover, Maclean's Music was still available at $25,000. A breakout Grade I exacta this summer has doubled his fee, requiring smaller breeders to ponder his potential as a sire of sires instead. Above all, however, Complexity received no fewer than 158 mares in his debut book: as close to oversubscription as this model farm will allow.

That puts him right in the center of the conversation for the freshmen's championship. Remember he made all for his emphatic GI Champagne S. success, as indeed he had when thrashing future Grade II and stakes winners on debut in Saratoga. Complexity regrouped after a troubled sophomore campaign to be just nailed in the GI Forego S., after again sharing a wild tempo out wide, and all you need to know about his build is that Mike Ryan gave $375,000 to make him the most expensive yearling in his sire's third crop.

You can anticipate voracious pinhooking interest in his yearlings and, while the left-field sires of his first three dams get credit primarily for variegation, they do represent august lines (Bold Ruler, Bold Ruler, Never Bend). As with American Pharoah, for instance, the important thing is that the genetic cocktail is plainly functioning potently. And don't forget that Complexity's dam has also produced a GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies runner-up, and she's out of an 11-time winner who ran second at Grade II level.

This horse couldn't be in better hands and, having gained a good deal while others have more or less had to stand and wait, everything is in place to elevate the value of any investments made in him now.

The post Value Sires, Part II: First Foals in ’22 appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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