Wagering | Horse Racing Free Tips

Equibase Analysis: Giving Blitzkrieg A Slight Edge In Seabiscuit Handicap

The Grade 2, $200,000 Seabiscuit Handicap this Saturday at Del Mar brings together a big field of 13 turf horses from around North America in what should be an extraordinary race to watch and to wager on. There should be no clear cut favorite among the group and many horses should offer betting value:

Leading the field in career earnings at $1.8 million is Next Shares, who posted the 27 to 1 upset winning the 2019 Seabiscuit but who is winless this year in six races. Close at hand in terms of career accomplishments is Bowies Hero, who has earned more than $1.5 million with his last big win coming in the 2019 Grade 1 Shadwell Turf Mile.
Next is My Boy Jack, who has banked more than three-quarters of a million. Starting his career on dirt, My Boy Jack was a top 3-year-old in 2018, including a fifth place effort in the Kentucky Derby before going on the sidelines in the fall of 2019 and making his return to the races in this race.
Flavius appears to be a strong contender, having won the Tourist Mile Stakes this past summer before a troubled effort in the Shadwell Turf Mile.

Then there is a trio of grade three winners hoping to step up to this grade two level. Anothertwistafate is one of those trying turf for the first time and just having returned from 16 months off this summer to win the Grade 3 Longacres Mile Handicap. Count Again won the Grade 3 Singspiel Stakes in September before a fourth place effort in the Grade 1 Northern Dancer Stakes so appears to fit nicely here. Blitzkrieg started his career in the United States before spending last winter in Dubai then returning stateside in May. In his second start back from a layoff, Blitzkrieg won the Grade 3 American Stakes and he was most recently fourth in the Grade 2 City of Hope Mile after setting sizzling fractions from the start.
In terms of recent success, One Bad Boy enters the Seabiscuit off a win in the Lure Stakes last month, in which Majestic Eagle was second. Camino Del Paraiso just won the Rolling Green Stakes and Joseph T. Grace Stakes in succession and was second in the Grade 3 Thunder Road Stakes this past winter so could be in the thick of the action again.
Spirit Animal, one of two from the barn of Chad Brown (the other is Flavius) has won two of three this year and is stepping up from allowance company, having finished fifth in his only previous stakes try.
Imperador, who won a pair of G1 races in his native Argentina, made his North American debut last month and finished second so could improve.
Tartini, who has been racing against easier foes but won his last two races, rounds out the field.

To be honest, there are a number of horses who can run well enough to win this year's Seabiscuit Handicap, but in this case I'm going to concentrate on three I think stick out just a bit against the rest. They are Blitzkrieg, Flavius and Imperador.

Although it appears on paper both Blitzkrieg and One Bad Boy can only win when they lead from the start, and therefore there will be an early pace battle of epic proportions, I do not believe that to be the case. One Bad Boy, who hails from the Richard Baltas barn, the same as Next Shares, is the one who is more likely to lead early as he breaks from the 10 post. That puts Blitzkrieg in the catbird seat, and looking at many of his earlier races that will work out well. Before leaving California for Dubai this past winter, Blitzkrieg showed the ability to relax in the early stages, such as when winning the San Francisco Stakes with a rock-solid 111 Equibase Speed Figure.

Perhaps overmatched when returned to trainer Doug O' Neill's base in southern California and placed in the Shoemaker Mile, Blitzkrieg returned to stakes winning form in the American Stakes in June, duplicating the 111 figure earned 14 months earlier. Two races later he set a nearly unbelievable early pace in the Tourist Mile when he ran the opening six furlongs in 1:07.8 before tiring to sixth behind eventual winner Flavius. Then, last month in the City of Hope Mile, Blitzkrieg once again went too fast early for his own good, running the opening six furlongs in 1:08.6. Still, Blitzkrieg was beaten only a head for third and earned a career-best 114 figure. In the Seabiscuit, with red hot jockey Abel Cedillo riding back after getting familiar with him and with One Bad Boy able to provide a solid target, Blitzkrieg should be able to pass the tiring leader in the stretch and hold off the others for the upset win.

If the early pace scenario above does not pan out, particularly if Blitzkrieg and One Bad Boy can't avoid battling for the early lead on sizzling fast fractions, Flavius appears most likely to pass them for the win. After returning from six months off and finishing third with a 109 when beaten less than a length, in the First Defence Stakes in June, Flavius won the Tourist Mile Stakes. That race doesn't carry a graded designation yet but it will, considering the $712,000 purse and the quality of the field. Putting that in perspective, the 115 figure Flavius earned in the Tourist Mile is better than the 111 figure 2019 Seabiscuit winner Next Shares earned. Returning one month later in the Shadwell Turf Mile, Flavius found himself in traffic at a critical stage in the stretch run and lost any chance he had to win, eventually finishing fifth. Getting a jockey change to North American leading rider Irad Ortiz, Jr. and with plenty of pace to run at just like he had in the Tourist Mile, Flavius could be in high gear and get up for the win in the Seabiscuit Handicap.

Imperador is an intriguing horse who is very likely to go to post at high odds. Winner of three of eight races in his native Argentina, Imperador made his U.S. debut in September at Churchill Downs in a third level allowance race and ended up second, beaten a half-length, at the end. However, Imperador ran the same kind of race that day I expect Blitzkrieg may run as he sat in second from the start before making up 2 1/2 lengths to lead in the stretch. In this case Imperador was passed late, but not only was he extremely game in holding second by a neck on the wire, he should be more physically fit in his second start back from six months off. Based in Kentucky with trainer Paulo Lobo, Imperador reminds me of another one of the trainer's top turf stars, Ivar, who posted the 14-1 upset in the Shadwell Turf Mile in October, beating Flavius and Bowies Hero in the process.

The rest of the field, with their best Equibase Speed Figures, is Anothertwistafate (105), Bowies Hero (118), Camino Del Paraiso (113), Count Again (108), Majestic Eagle (113), My Boy Jack (110), Next Shares (115), One Bad Boy (112), Spirit Animal (113) and Tartini (101).

Win Contenders, in preference order:
Blitzkrieg
Flavius
Imperador

Seabiscuit Handicap – Grade 2
Race 7 at Del Mar
Saturday, Nov. 28 – Post Time 6:30 PM E.T.
One Mile and One Sixteenth on Turf
Three-Year-Olds and Upward
Purse: $200,000

The post Equibase Analysis: Giving Blitzkrieg A Slight Edge In Seabiscuit Handicap appeared first on Horse Racing News | Paulick Report.

Source of original post

Wagering: American Racing’s Top Priority Going Forward

Courtesy Thoroughbred Idea Foundation

Racing needs a long-term plan which will put the sport on a path to raise handle to nearly $50 billion annually with more than $5 billion held by the industry by 2040.

Sound optimistic?

Falling well short of that goal would still be a monumental accomplishment given we are on track for another year at just $11 billion in handle, and down nearly 50% in the last two decades, adjusted for inflation.

So where are the plans from the industry to start thinking long-term about not just surviving, but thriving, and building a robust, wagering-forward industry?

Horse racing has a tremendous opportunity to lean into a massive culture of betting liberalization, but it has otherwise failed to capitalize on it. Time is still there, and the opportunity is not yet lost.

There is no doubt horsemen should be thankful for the enrichment they’ve received through purses over the last two decades coming by way of slot machines, video lottery terminals, historical horse racing or other revenue sharing from casino-related operations. In many cases, tracks and horsemen lobbied relentlessly for them. It makes sense that they continue to fight for them, but not at the expense of racing’s most obvious source of sustainable revenue–actual wagering on racing.

These significant purse supplements have allowed the industry to minimize the importance of presenting a modern wagering product. Most tracks have not focused on making racing wagering more competitive and most horsemen’s groups have not advocated for meaningful improvements to stoke wagering, either.

In some cases, 90% of prize money has come from subsidized sources beyond racing, wagering on the sport has not seemed as important–a reality which is reflected in annual handle figures over the last 20 years. Many owners and trainers within horsemen’s groups do not possess a detailed understanding of racing wagering. They don’t know what to advocate for to improve their own futures.

This is problematic, because as it relates to prize money for racing, the future is not bright.

Click here to read the rest of the essay.

The post Wagering: American Racing’s Top Priority Going Forward appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

Source of original post

Equibase Analysis: Ride A Comet May Be Able To End Pink Lloyd’s Win Streak In Kennedy Road

The field for Saturday's Grade 2, $175,000 Kennedy Road Stakes at Woodbine is led by Pink Lloyd, a fan favorite who has racked up 26 wins from 32 races all on the all-weather main track at Woodbine, including all four during his 2020 campaign. Among the other six in the Kennedy Road field, three have been victims to Pink Lloyd's tremendous will to win, while three others are facing him for the first time.

Leading that group is Grade 2 Nearctic Stakes winner Silent Poet, with an accomplished record consisting of 10 wins in 18 races. Then there's Ride a Comet, winner of the Grade 2 Del Mar Derby in the summer of 2018. Ride a Comet returned from a 25 month layoff last month at Woodbine and won as if he had never been away. Souper Stonehenge is another horse never seeing the back end of Pink Lloyd to date. He's never run in a stakes race but enters the race off a win in his second start back from 11 months off.

Dixie's Gamble has won six of nine races when Pink Lloyd wasn't in the race, including the Overskate Stakes last fall but he has been soundly defeated in four confrontations with the likely favorite. Similarly, Eskiminzin has been defeated in all five matchups against Pink Lloyd and has won six times from 26 other races. Roaring Forties has finished fourth and seventh behind Pink Lloyd this year and was fifth in the Grade 3 Durham Cup Stakes in his most recent start.

Ride a Comet may be the right horse to end Pink Lloyd's perfect four-for-four streak this year. This talented horse won five of his first 10 races, including the Del Mar Derby in September, 2018, defeating multiple stakes winner River Boyne in the process. With whatever put him on the sidelines from that race until his comeback last month behind him, Ride a Comet returned in extraordinary fashion with a visually impressive effort that saw him go from seventh and six lengths behind the leader on the turn to the front of the field by the eighth pole. Considering he was ridden out to victory, it appears there's a lot of gas left in the tank and logically the horse should improve markedly second off the layoff.

Since that race, Ride a Comet has put in three exceptional workouts at Woodbine including one which was the second best of 41 on the day. When he won the Del Mar Derby at the end of his three year old season, Ride a Comet earned a 110 Equibase Speed Figure which is comparable to the 111 figure Pink Lloyd earned winning this race in 2019, and therefore Ride a Comet gets top billing.

Silent Poet and leading Woodbine jockey Justin Stein should be able to take advantage of an otherwise paceless race and go to the front easily at the start of the race. Silent Poet has earned nearly all of his wins when leading or pressing the pace in second from the start, including his last two races. The first of the two was an allowance race with a stakes level $100,000 purse and the second was the Nearctic Stakes at this distance on grass. Those efforts yielded 103 and 104 figures which, with slight improvement, put Silent Poet in the thick of the action down to the wire in the Kennedy Road. I'm not concerned about his duplicating those efforts on the main track as he was second in the Sir Barton Stakes the last time he ran on the main track at Woodbine.

Pink Lloyd's accomplishments speak for themselves, as he's dominated the sprint stakes ranks at Woodbine for many years. With streaks of five in a row in 2019 and five in a row coming into this race, including all four races this year, he's proven to have an attitude about winning which matches his ability. Pink Lloyd was second in the 2016 edition of this race, won it in 2017, skipped it in 2018 and won it again in 2019. Still, except for last year's Kennedy Road in which he earned a 111 figure, his four wins this year earned 103, 102, 92 and 101 figures, which aren't dominant in any way when compared against Ride a Comet (99 last race and 110 before the layoff), Silent Poet (104 last race) and Souper Stonehenge (102 last race). All three of those horses have never faced Pink Lloyd previously and all appear to be as capable of winning as the likely betting favorite. That's not to say Pink Lloyd can't rise to the occasion and win just as he's done time and time again.

The rest of the field, with their best Equibase Speed Figures in a similar race, is Dixie's Gamble (105), Eskiminzin (98), Roaring Forties (93) and Souper Stonehenge (102).

Win Contenders, in preference order:
Ride a Comet
Silent Poet
Pink Lloyd

Kennedy Road Stakes – Grade 2
Race 9 at Woodbine
Saturday, November 21 – Post Time 5:28 PM E.T.
Six Furlongs on All-Weather
3-Year-Olds and Upward
Purse: $175,000

The post Equibase Analysis: Ride A Comet May Be Able To End Pink Lloyd’s Win Streak In Kennedy Road appeared first on Horse Racing News | Paulick Report.

Source of original post

Fair Grounds Replaces ‘Jackpot’ Pick 5 With Traditional Early, Late Pick 5 Wagers

When the Fair Grounds' 149th season of racing kicks off Thanksgiving Day at the New Orleans, La. track, a traditional early and late Pick Five will replace the Black Gold Five, a jackpot wager that had been in place for the past several years.

On a regular basis, the early Pick Five will encompass races 1-5, and the late Pick Five will be offered on the final five races of the card. The 50-cent minimum wager will pay 100% of the day's pool plus any carryover coming into the day to those who correctly select 5-of-5 winners. Should no one pick 5-of-5, 25% of the pool will be paid to those who select the most winners, with the remaining 75% of the pool carrying over to the following day's late Pick Five sequence.

In addition to the newly implemented early and late Pick Five, Fair Grounds will also offer an early Pick Four, which will now move to races 2-5, as well as two other Pick Fours later on the card. Rolling Pick Threes and daily doubles remain a staple of the wagering menu.

Fair Grounds will also make a key change to their horizontal wagering platform. Beginning this meet, any race that is taken off the turf after a sequence has started will revert to ALL on any live tickets. This rule only applies to turf races moved to the main track. Any scratch in a race that did not switch surfaces will result in the bettor getting a replacement of the post time favorite.

A complete list of wagering information, special wagers, and with key racing dates for the meet can be found at: https://www.fairgroundsracecourse.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/2020-2021-Thoroughbred-Racing-Season-Wagering-Info-FINAL-.pdf

The post Fair Grounds Replaces ‘Jackpot’ Pick 5 With Traditional Early, Late Pick 5 Wagers appeared first on Horse Racing News | Paulick Report.

Source of original post