Friday’s Stronach 5 Features Four Tracks, Three Turf Races

An interesting sequence of five races from four tracks along with an industry-low 12-percent takeout will make up Friday's Stronach 5.

The Stronach 5 will include races from Pimlico Race Course, Gulfstream Park, Santa Anita Park and Golden Gate Fields.

The action kicks off at 4:34 ET with Pimlico's eighth race, a 5 ½ furlong event for optional allowance claimers led by Colts Neck Stables LLC's Dalton, who returns from a five-month layoff after ending his juvenile season with a second-place finish against the multiple-stakes winner No Cents in the James F. Lewis at Laurel in November. A son of Kantharos, Dalton finished second by a nose in September in the Smoke Glacken at Monmouth Park. Trained by Jorge Duarte Jr., Jevian Toledo gets the mount on Dalton, who has never been off the board in five starts.

Sky's Not Falling enters the race for trainer Mike Trombetta off a fifth-place finish on the turf at Gulfstream Park in his 3-year-old debut. The son of Seville finished third last summer at Saratoga in the Skidmore, second at Woodbine in the Ontario Racing Stakes and third in the Fitz Dixon Jr. at Presque Isle. Victor Carrasco will ride.

Exculpatory, who won his debut March 5 at Laurel for trainer Mark Reid, and Kwist, who broke his maiden at first asking in September for Claudio Gonzalez, return for their second starts.

The Stronach 5 continues with Gulfstream's ninth race, a 7 ½ furlong turf event for maiden fillies and mares. It's wide open with a 7-2 favorite in Maricopa, who drops slightly off a third-place finish. Kayla's Tune returns to the turf, drops from his last turf start, and gets Edwin Gonzalez.

Pimlico's ninth race, a five-furlong turf event for $12,500 claimers, serves as the third leg of the sequence. Algodonal leaves from the rail in her first start since November. The daughter of Afleet Alex closed out her 4-year-old year with her last five races moved off the turf to the main track.

The Stronach 5 heads west for the fourth and fifth legs of the Stronach 5. Santa Anita's third race, a maiden claimer for 3-year-old fillies, has a 2-1 favorite in Circle of Honor, coming off a second-place finish against similar company April 4 for trainer Steve Knapp. Flag Salutes drops in from a restricted maiden special weight for trainer Carla Gaines. David Hofmans sends out Paynter's Love, who finished 1 ¼ lengths behind Circle of Honor last time out.

Golden Gate's third race concludes the Stronach 5. The mile turf event for 3-year-olds with a $20,000 tag has a 6-5 favorite in Qatar Racing's Space Odessey, a son of Malibu Moon beaten less than a length at Golden Gate April 2 after dropping into this condition from a $80,000 maiden claiming event at Santa Anita in February.

Friday's races and sequence

  • Leg One – Pimlico Race 8: (8 entries – 5 ½ furlongs) 4:34 ET, 1:34 PT
  • Leg Two – Gulfstream Race 9: (12 entries – 7 ½ furlongs turf) 4:48 ET, 1:48 PT
  • Leg Three –Pimlico Race 9: (10 entries – 5 furlongs turf) 5:10 ET, 2:10 PT
  • Leg Four –Santa Anita Park Race 3: (8 entries – 1-mile) 5:15 ET, 2:15 PT
  • Leg Five –Golden Gate Fields Race 3: (8 entries – 1-mile turf): 5:30 ET, 2:30 PT

Fans can watch and wager on the action at 1/ST.COM/BET as well as stream all the action in English and Spanish at LaurelPark.com, SantaAnita.com, GulfstreamPark.com, and GoldenGateFields.com.

The Stronach 5 In the Money podcast, hosted by Jonathan Kinchen and Peter Thomas Fornatale, will be posted by 2 p.m. Thursday at InTheMoneyPodcast.com and will be available on iTunes and other major podcast distributors

The minimum wager on the multi-race, multi-track Stronach 5 is $1. If there are no tickets with five winners, the entire pool will be carried over to the next Friday.

If a change in racing surface is made after the wagering closes, each selection on any ticket will be considered a winning selection. If a betting interest is scratched, that selection will be substituted with the favorite in the win pool when wagering closes.

The Maryland Jockey Club serves as host of the Stronach 5.

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Saturday’s Cross Country Pick 5 Features Racing From Belmont, Oaklawn

The New York Racing Association Inc. [NYRA] will host a Cross Country Pick 5 on Saturday featuring three races from Belmont Park and two at Oaklawn Park.

Free Equibase past performances for the Cross Country Pick 5 sequence are now available for download at https://www.nyra.com/belmont/racing/cross-country-wagers.

Belmont will start the action in Race 7 at 3:48 p.m. Eastern with a seven-furlong allowance contest for New York breds 3-years-old and up on the Widener turf course. Trainer John Kimmel will send out the ultra-consistent Quickflash, who has a 1-5-2 record in nine career starts and has finished second or third in five of his last six starts dating to March 2020. Rudy Rodriguez will saddle 6-year-old veteran Bad Guy, who will be making his 48th career start overall. Bad Guy will be seeking his first win at Belmont in his 13th start but has finished second at the Elmont-based track on four occasions.

Oaklawn will host the second leg as an 11-horse maiden field will compete at 1 1/16 miles in Race 6 at 4 p.m. A slew of six-figured purchases will generate excitement at the Hot Springs, Arkansas track, including Hanks, who will be making his fifth career start and is entered off back-to-back runner-up efforts at Oaklawn. Hanks, a Runhappy colt purchased for $650,000 at the 2019 Fasig-Tipton New York Select Sale, is trained by William Martin, who also will send out Quality Run, a $425,000 purchase at the 2018 Keeneland September Sale. Unraced until his 4-year-old year, Quality Run ran second in his debut in February at Oaklawn before running fourth last out going 1 1/16 miles on a muddy and sealed track. Hall of Fame conditioner Steve Asmussen will see Caerus, bought for $250,000 at the 2019 Keeneland September Sale, look to break his maiden at third asking.

Action alternates back to Belmont for Race 8 at 4:19 p.m. for a six-furlong maiden race for fillies and mares 3-years-old and up contesting over the inner turf. Trainer Christophe Clement saw Quick Conversation run second in her debut on March 12 at Tampa Bay Downs, and the sophomore will ship in to New York after continuing to train in Florida at Payson Park. Trainer Chad Brown will send out Crowding Out, a $230,000 purchase at the 2020 OBS Sale, for her first start. The Street Boss filly had also been training at Payson Park before trekking north.

A six-furlong starter allowance race on Oaklawn's main track will go off in Race 7 at 4:38 p.m. A dozen 4-year-olds and up includes Kitchen Fire, who earned a 93 Beyer Speed Figure last year and has compiled 10 victories in 37 previous starts. The John Cox trainee will face a field that includes Westfest, whose career-high Beyer is 96 and is back in Asmussen's care after previously being transferred from the accomplished conditioner in 2020.

Belmont will close the sequence with a 6 1/2-furlong allowance optional claimer in Race 9 at 4:56 p.m. The race features some familiar faces on the NYRA circuit, with Three Technique entered for trainer Jeremiah Englehart. Three Technique competed in four stakes in 2020, running fourth in the Grade 2 Rebel at Oaklawn before running 10th in the Grade 1 H. Allen Jerkens in August at Saratoga and making his turf debut next-out at the Spa with a sixth-place effort in the Grade 3 Saranac. Pete's Play Call, will run at Belmont after a successful winter at Aqueduct, where he won the Gravesend in January and ran second in the Grade 3 Toboggan and Caixa Eletronica.

The minimum bet for the multi-track, multi-race wager is 50 cents. Wagering on the Cross Country Pick 5 is also available on ADW platforms and at simulcast facilities across the country. Every week will feature a mandatory payout of the net pool. The Cross Country Pick 5 will continue each Saturday throughout the year. For more information, visit NYRABets.com.

Cross Country Pick 5 – Saturday, May 1:
Leg A: Belmont– Race 7 (3:48 p.m.)
Leg B: Oaklawn – Race 6 (4:00 p.m.)
Leg C: Belmont – Race 8 (4:19 p.m.)
Leg D: Oaklawn – Race 7 (4:38 p.m.)
Leg E: Belmont – Race 9 (4:56 p.m.)

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Wagering Insecurity: ‘Trust Us’ Isn’t Enough

This is Part 6 of the Thoroughbred Idea Foundation's (TIF) series “Wagering Insecurity.”

Faced with remarkable competitive pressure from the rise of legal sports betting, horse racing is at a crossroads.

Confidence amongst horseplayers and horse owners is essential to the future sustainability of the sport. Efforts to improve the greater North American Thoroughbred industry will fall flat if its stakeholders fail to secure a foundation of integrity, along with increased transparency of the wagering business and its participants over time. Achieving this is growing increasingly difficult after the sport has neglected its core base – horseplayers – for decades.

“Wagering Insecurity” details some of that neglect, and the need to embrace serious reform. Fortunately, there are examples across the racing world to follow.

PART 6 – PROOF

Past-posting is the act of placing a bet after a race has started because the wagering pools were not properly closed. Professional horseplayer Mike Maloney had suspected past-posting was happening with regularity and pleaded with a variety of officials for years to clamp down, but to no avail.

Paul Bowlinger, then Vice-President at the Association of Racing Commissioners International (ARCI), a trade group of racing commissions, recounted his 2007 observations of Maloney in a 2008 conference at the University of Arizona.

“He basically came and told this audience [one year earlier]…I past-posted and I did it to show the industry how easily and how frequently it can be done.' “

Mike Maloney is a member of the Thoroughbred Idea Foundation's Wagering and Integrity Issues Steering Committee and documented his experience uncovering past-posting opportunities in the 2000s at the end of his 2017 book “Betting With An Edge.” After engaging, or attempting to engage, with a plethora of track executives and even the NTRA, Maloney realized there was almost no traction to securing wagering systems.

He wrote:

“To make people in racing realize what's going on here, I don't just need proof…I need to drop a bomb. At Fair Grounds in 2007, I found one.”

After months of trying to understand the issue while betting the races, Maloney explained how he identified that betting pools were not closing appropriately. Tracks maintained little to no record of when races actually started and a series of issues with time syncs between tote betting machines and the host track made it increasingly challenging to prove when there was an actual problem.

What Maloney knew, for certain, is that if the mechanism to stop betting at the host track and all other simulcast and online sites was being used, it was not always functioning correctly.

Stewards at tracks are provided a mechanism to close the betting pools for a race under their supervision.

This mechanism, known as a “stop wagering device,” is supposed to lock all wagering on that race from on-site and at all other locations off-site, and online, where bets are accepted. Maloney noticed that the act of closing the pools was replicated in individual betting terminals with an audible notification to live tellers.

THE BEEP

With an established “office” for wagering at Keeneland, and with a semi-private teller to enter Maloney's bets, he began to notice the “beep.”

“The beep is just an alert to the teller. I began to listen for the beep. In the vast majority of races, it came at the proper time. The gates would open, within two seconds I would hear the beep, and I knew the race was properly closed.

“If I was betting that track, my tickets would stop coming out. But that's not how it was all the time, and I noticed that certain tracks were a lot worse than others.

“Fair Grounds was really bad about it. Golden Gate was really bad about it. Aqueduct was really bad about it. The Florida tracks had issues. As I watched this, I no longer suspected that past-posting was possible, I knew with certainty it could happen.”

To prove the point, Maloney bet on a race at Fair Grounds where wagering remained open during the race, well after the start.

“We were over 50 seconds into the race when I heard the beep and wagering finally closed.”

Following these startling revelations, Maloney thought an investigation would be forthcoming and wagering security bolstered.

“I got a visit from the TRPB…I was hoping I'd be able to help them investigate the incident, but that was naïve. They were more interested in investigating me.”

While Bowlinger simplified Maloney's actions in his 2008 remarks, Maloney clarified his intent in a 2021 interview for TIF.

“I certainly wasn't doing it for fun. Despite regular pleading with some officials, very few believed it was happening and said they did not have actual proof.

“So, I showed them the proof from my bets and all of the other legwork I did to expose this for them. I thought that would be enough for those in charge to realize that there was a real problem with the tote systems and that now it could get fixed.

“Instead, I was called before two Commission meetings to show cause as to why my racing license shouldn't be revoked.

“It seemed that more than anything, they wanted to intimidate me and interrogate me, almost like I was a criminal for revealing to them their own systems' failings.”

June 2008 past-posting incident came to public attention after it was learned customers at Tampa Bay Downs were able to bet on a race at Philadelphia Park (now Parx) after the race was over, clearing more than $13,000 from $2,000 in bets made after the race.

The TRPB's Curtis Linnell told the Paulick Report at the time “it didn't look like it was widespread.”

Paulick wrote:

“This issue begs the question of who is minding the tote, a patchwork, less-than-state-of-the-art wagering network that handles the approximate $15-billion in bets each year and flows through racetracks, hubs, guest hubs, off-track betting sites, account wagering systems, and off-shore rebate shops?”

WHISTLEBLOWING

More than 18 months after Maloney's first proof and exposure of past-posting, and seven years since the Breeders' Cup Fix Six, Maloney was contacted by a tote employee “who didn't trust his company to report” such an incident properly.

The race in question was the Grade 3 Los Angeles Handicap at Hollywood Park on May 16, 2009.

“Rather than immediately report it myself and initiate the usual industry cover-up, I decided to wait and watch what the tracks and regulators would do…

“I was hoping the higher-ups at Hollywood Park would inform the betting public of the failure of the tote system. Then I hoped to see the California Horse Racing Board, since it regulates all wagering and racing in the state, issue a press release regarding a potential investigation.”

But there was no immediate reaction.

Maloney blogged about the incident, which was then picked-up by Paulick Report. Wagering on the race at 33 locations had not been closed properly, enabling patrons there to continue betting on the race even after the results were known.

Tote officials recognized the issue and did not honor winning bets placed at the 33 locations for the race, though they never raised the issue to the public, until Maloney blew the whistle.

“The Hollywood incident summed up the industry response to all of the tote problems.

“First, the industry doesn't want anyone to know about the issue, because it makes them look bad. Then, when they're called on it, they deal with it in a way where they don't even acknowledge the systematic failure that led to the people who fund the game being cheated out of their money.”

Maloney's quest continued for several years, with more incidents identified. Many horseplayers recall the incidents and remain concerned about past-posting, though tote experts, who wished to remain unnamed, told TIF that the specific issues Maloney identified about past-posting were rectified.

While he backed away from the fight in 2012, as Maloney explains in the book, he remains steadfast to this day that the wagering systems for American racing still lack some of the basic security provisions they need.

A STEP BACK FOR INTEGRITY IN 2020

In December 2020, ARCI adopted an update to its Totalisator Technical Standards (TTS) document. This document contains the requirements for North American pari-mutuel wagering operators and bet-takers, and is supposed to be adhered-to by members.

In its most recent update, the document included an adjustment to the requirements of the stop wagering device. As it describes, tote vendors “shall install two separate devices that activate the stop wagering function.”

The device closes wagering on a race and provided all downstream receivers of the signal from the device are calibrated, it stops the occurrence of past-posting as painstakingly identified by Mike Maloney over years.

According to the TTS document:

“The stop wagering device shall be the judge's console and a tote system backup located at the racing association.”

That is, the host track where the race is taking place.

The primary device is in the possession of the stewards overseeing the race itself. But the 2020 update amends the backup device's requirements.

“Said tote system backup may be operated by local racing personnel and/or racing stewards, and also remotely operated by tote personnel not physically located at the racing association.

“If the tote system backup is operated remotely, a protocol for the remote operation shall be submitted to the racing commission for approval.”

In other words, the main device is still with the stewards, but the backup device can be operated remotely, out of control of the track and stewards. This has flabbergasted Maloney, who offered the following comments in 2021:

“I can't imagine a system where an update of these protocols would bring us to, hypothetically, a less secure operation of the stop wagering function in 2021, but that is what seems to have happened.

“The same general lack of concern I felt the industry showed horseplayers in 2007, seems to still be in place now. The betting infrastructure is ancient. How can a reasonable observer look at what we have in place and not think it is in need of monumental upgrades to protect honest customers?”

If technology had evolved across the American pari-mutuel wagering landscape and centralized backup remotes were implemented with transparent oversight, then confidence might be warranted.

But that does not seem to be the case.

Instead, while other gambling technologies continue improving over time, tote technology seems to remain much the same.

“TRUST US” ISN'T ENOUGH

Alarmingly, some of the same “late scan” functions which Chris Harn and his conspirators exposed in the Breeders' Cup Fix Six remain in place.

Maloney documented in 2017 that the method by which tracks identify winning superfecta bets across all North American races still uses the “late scan” approach for verifying winning tickets.

Instead of submitting the full details of every superfecta bet to the host track as it is placed, the remote bet taker only communicates to the host track the dollar amount of superfecta bets they have taken before the race begins. Once the race is run and order of finish confirmed, then the host track requests that the remote betting sites provide detail on how many winning superfecta tickets should be paid to them.

Defined as a process “used after the winners are known” by the Inter Tote System Protocol (ITSP), a shared resource used by tote companies, tracks and remote betting sites, every superfecta bet on North American racing is processed as a late scan.

Maloney said:

“The 2002 pick-six scandal happened for a variety of reasons, all well-documented. To the best of my understanding, the only update that has been made to the ITSP is for the pick six, or any multi-race bet like it, which the industry calls 'Pick-N' bets. They've moved from late scans to early scans.”

The ITSP identifies an early scan is “used after the winners are known from leg to leg of Pick-N pool types.”

The total Pick-N play, with combinations and wager amounts, is still not secured and transmitted to the host track before the betting sequence begins. In 2017, Maloney called these situations “vulnerabilities without reasonable oversight.”

These processes still exist today.

TIF questioned the TRPB about the unusually low superfecta result of the 2019 Kentucky Derby in the weeks following the race. That year's race was unofficial for more than 20 minutes before stewards demoted Maximum Security and promoted Country House, at 65-1, to the win. The longest-priced winner of the race in modern times, which holds America's largest field and largest superfecta pool, produced a superfecta return which was surprisingly low in comparison to other combinations in the past, at just $51,400.

There may be a plethora of reasonable explanations, but none have ever been provided.

“Trust us” isn't enough.

The 2005 remarks of then Del Mar Thoroughbred Club President Craig Fravel, now the Chief Executive Officer for 1/ST Racing (formerly The Stronach Group), questioned the ability of the tracks themselves to properly ensure the security of wagering. Keep in mind that the one entity which exists in this capacity, the TRPB, is a wholly owned subsidiary of a consortium of racetracks.

“We [track operators] are a little suspect simply because we are maybe overly confident at times.

“I think to allow customers to have sufficient levels of confidence in us, we have to demonstrate that not only are we capable of reviewing things, but that there is a sufficiently independent and authoritative organization out there that can be the ultimate arbiter of those kind of decisions.”

North American racing is still waiting for one, some 16 years after Fravel's remarks, and 19 years since the Breeders' Cup Fix Six.

The lack of oversight is a flashing red light to both existing and new racing fans. In our next installment, we will look at other racing jurisdictions which are tackling these topics and seeking to keep pace with the ever-changing world.

Coming  Tuesday, May 4: Part 7 – Z

Miss a previous installment? Click on the links to read more.

Part 1 – Expectations

Part 2 – Intertwined

Part 3 – Volponi

Part 4 – Confidence

Part 5 – Bingo

Want to share your insights with TIF? Email us here.

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Equibase Analysis: Rock Your World, Known Agenda Poised To Upset Essential Quality In Kentucky Derby

Back at its traditional place on the calendar on the first Saturday in May and using the new 20 horse gate for only the second time in Kentucky Derby history, the 147th running of the Grade 1, $3 million Kentucky Derby presented by Woodford Reserve is expected to be a very competitive event. Among the 20 entrants, only four have won two or more consecutive races leading to the “Greatest Two Minutes in Sports.”

One of those is Essential Quality, who is undefeated in five races including the Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Juvenile last fall and most recently the Grade 2 Toyota Blue Grass Stakes. Rock Your World is another undefeated colt, having won his first two races on grass before a consummate four and one-quarter length victory in the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby last month on dirt. Another top quality colt sporting two straight wins is Known Agenda, easy winner of the Grade 1 Florida Derby five weeks ago.

Super Stock won another of the major prep races when victorious in the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby four weeks ago. Bourbonic posted the 72 to 1 upset in the Grade 2 Wood Memorial on the first Saturday in April, and Helium won the Grade 2 Tampa Bay Derby on the first Saturday in March but has not raced since. Another horse away from the races a bit more than some of the others is Grade 2 Louisiana Derby winner Hot Rod Charlie. The Grade 3 Jeff Ruby Steaks was won by Like the King near the end of March, while King Fury won the final prep of the season, the Stonestreet Lexington Stakes, three weeks ago.

In addition to those Derby prep race winners, six horses which finished second in those major races, some by inches, are trying to turn the tables on their foes. That list consists of Dynamic One (Wood Memorial), Highly Motivated (Blue Grass), Medina Spirit (Santa Anita Derby), Midnight Bourbon (Louisiana Derby), Sainthood (Jeff Ruby) and Soup and Sandwich (Florida Derby).

O Besos finished fourth in the Grade 2 Risen Star Stakes and third in the Louisiana Derby and hopes to improve, as does Wood Memorial fifth place finisher Brooklyn Strong and Louisiana Derby sixth place finisher Mandaloun, who had won the Risen Star prior to that. The field is completed by Hidden Stash and Keepmeinmind, who were most recently fourth and fifth, respectively, in the Blue Grass.

It is with some handicapping liberty every year I will delineate six horses that have the bulk of the probability to win the Kentucky Derby. Some will have a larger chance to win than others, but some of those with a lesser chance may offer a lot more return for the risk when betting and are certainly not out of the question. For this year's Derby the top six win contenders, in slight preference order, are Rock Your World, Known Agenda, Essential Quality, Highly Motivated, King Fury and Super Stock.

Rock Your World was bred to adore both turf and dirt. He started his career on the grass, winning with maturity from off the pace in his debut on New Year's Day then going into a stakes race in his next start and winning even more powerfully. Trainer John Sadler has stated, perhaps tongue-in-cheek, the reason for this was to avoid all the fantastically bred 3-year-old colts trained by Bob Baffert which quickly becomes talked about as Derby contenders early in the year. In any event, Rock Your World transitioned to dirt for the third start of his career in the Santa Anita Derby and it was a career-best effort in which he earned a 103 ™ Equibase® Speed Figure.

That's not yet in range of the top contenders in the Derby field, for example Essential Quality (109) and Known Agenda (112), but considering Rock Your World has raced two-three fewer times than those other two horses, it is very likely he can run even faster than he has to date. In the Santa Anita Derby, Rock Your World led from the start and widened in the last quarter mile, but he does not need the lead to win as evidenced by his off-the-pace rallies in the first two starts of his career.

Since the Santa Anita Derby, Rock Your World has put in two sensational five-eighths of a mile workouts in preparation for the race so there can be no doubt he's in tip-top condition. Add to that he has a physical presence, as when getting off the van at Churchill Downs earlier this week and noisily announcing “I'm Here” to anyone who was within earshot. Last, and definitely not least, it must be noted that after he crossed the finish line in the Santa Anita Derby, Rock Your World was not eased up as most horses are. Instead, he was ridden further as if the race was longer in order to remind him of his next task in this mile and one-quarter test that is the Kentucky Derby.

Known Agenda has been a new horse, a phenomenal horse, since blinkers were added one race before last. He won the first race in the new equipment by 11 lengths with a 103 (stakes quality) ™ Figure, though it wasn't a stakes race. Then one month later in the Florida Derby, Known Agenda showed a quick burst of speed with a quarter mile to go when moving from fourth, two and one-half lengths back, to lead entering the stretch. That effort earned a career-best 112 figure which is the best in the field and his pattern for improvement can continue.

Historically, that is the type of burst of speed which wins more editions of the Kentucky Derby than it does not. This is because it's critical to go past a number of horses quickly before many of them will be able to react. At that point in the Derby, there's not usually a lot of passing as many horses have hit the proverbial wall human runners know about very well. The rail draw has historically been problematic in the Derby, and so it might be for Known Agenda, but given 2020 North American leading jockey Irad Ortiz, Jr. knows him so well after those two wins, I suspect they may be able to hold mid-pace position in the early stages in spite of a number of horses coming closer to the rail to save ground. If that happens and Known Agenda gets a ground saving trip without losing too many positions out of the gate, and if able to repeat the acceleration he showed with a quarter mile to run in the Florida Derby, he could win Kentucky Derby 147.

It is difficult to disregard any undefeated horse, especially one like Essential Quality who won the Breeders' Futurity last fall in only the second start of his career, then won the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, and who has won both starts as a three year old. The pattern is unmistakable for an improving athlete, with Equibase figures of 88-95-101 and 105 before a new career-best 109 in the Blue Grass Stakes. In the Blue Grass Essential Quality looked like he would never go by Highly Motivated¸ who had led from the start, but as the finish line came nearer his determination took over and he prevailed by a neck. As he is making his third start following nearly four months off, Essential Quality likely has more improving to do and if he peaks in the Kentucky Derby as is certainly possible he could become the 10th horse to exit the Derby undefeated.

Highly Motivated did everything right in the Blue Grass except come out on top in the photo and there is nothing to be ashamed of in finishing a head behind undefeated Essential Quality. After improving throughout his two-year-old campaign with 87, 89 and 104 figures including winning the Nyquist Stakes in his last start of 2020, Highly Motivated took four months off to grow up. Returning to finish third in the Gotham Stakes in March with a 102 figure, Highly Motivated went to the front from the start in the Blue Grass and kept Essential Quality at bay until the final strides, improving to a career-best 108 figure not to be trifled with when compared to the other top contenders in this field. Although not showing the explosive kick at the quarter pole similar to Known Agenda, it must be noted that both Highly Motivated and Essential Quality both quickened their stride with about a quarter of a mile to run in the race and opened up many lengths on the rest of the field. This leads me to believe that in the 20 horse Kentucky Derby field, Highly Motivated may be able to change gears nicely at the critical stage of the race and have a say in the outcome.

King Fury and Super Stock are both likely to be longshots (20 to 1 or more) and although both have less chance to succeed as compared to the four horses previously mentioned, I for one would be kicking myself if I did not at least have a small wager to win on both of them and watch them win at very high odds.

King Fury won the first and third races of his career last year. Both happened to be at Churchill Downs and the latter of the pair came in the Street Sense Stakes. Following poor seventh and fifth place efforts in stakes to end 2020, King Fury was given a good deal of time off, four and one-half months to be exact. Returning just three weeks ago in the Lexington Stakes, King Fury closed from eighth of nine like a flash to make the lead at the top of the stretch and open up to win easily. The 103 Equibase figure is the same as Rock Your World earned in the Santa Anita Derby and definitely can be improved upon in the colt's second start off the long layoff. As a son of Curlin (the same sire as Known Agenda), who himself finished third in the 2007 Derby and who has sired the most winners at this 10 furlong distance of any sire of an entrant in this year's race, there is little doubt King Fury should be able to run the distance successfully.

Super Stock put it all together for the 12 to 1 upset in the Arkansas Derby last month, earning a career-best 106 figure which puts him in the top group of win contenders. He had finished fourth in the Rebel Stakes one month earlier, but that followed four and one-half months off and he may not have been fully cranked up for the Rebel. Having finished third behind Essential Quality in the Breeders' Futurity last fall and second behind King Fury in the Street Sense Stakes in October and now back in top form with room to improve, Super Stock should not be ruled out as a contender to post the upset in this year's Kentucky Derby.

The rest of the Kentucky Derby field, with their best ™ Equibase Speed Figures is Brooklyn Strong (99), Bourbonic (100), Dynamic One (100), Hidden Stash (93), Helium (94), Hot Rod Charlie (99), Keepmeinmind (98), Like the King (95), Mandaloun (97), Medina Spirit (100), Midnight Bourbon (96), O Besos (96), Sainthood (93) and Soup and Sandwich (108).

Win contenders:
Rock Your World
Known Agenda
Essential Quality
Highly Motivated
King Fury
Super Stock

You can get Ellis' full card detailed analysis and betting recommendations for all the races at Churchill Downs on Derby Day, Saturday May 1, at Equibase.com, TrackMaster.com and most online wagering sites.

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