Tag: Wagering

Saturday's Grade 2, $250,000 Vosburgh Stakes is a “Win & You're In” for the Breeders' Cup Sprint. Although only drawing a field of five, there is not one horse entered who is without a chance to succeed. Since the group is small, I'll dispense with the normal listing of their qualifications and cover all five horses in detail.

Good Effort (IRE) has won eight of 29 career races, all on turf or all-weather. However, he has run big races on dirt, specifically when missing by a neck in a 13 horse field this past March in the Group 3 Mahab Al Shimaal Stakes in Dubai on a left handed course like the one at Belmont. Overmatched in the Group 1 Dubai Golden Shaheen Stakes after that, Good Effort (IRE) rebounded to miss by three-quarters of a length in a group 3 stakes in the U.K. after making the lead and holding on until very late in the race. Overmatched once more in the Group 1 Darley July Cup Stakes and the Group 2 King George Qater Stakes, the latter run at five furlongs on grass, Good Effort (IRE) rebounded to lead from start to finish in a very fast six and one-half furlong race in France on all-weather last month.

From January through November 2020, Good Effort (IRE) won four straight races, in three of the four making the lead shortly after the start and easily holding the front to the end. Adding blinkers to insure he does the same as in Europe and Dubai, considering he earned very consistent ™ Equibase® Speed Figures of 108 to 110 in his top efforts, Good Effort (IRE) has a shot to surprise the local contingent and win this year's Vosburgh Stakes in front running fashion.

Following Sea cuts back from seven furlongs to six furlongs which may be the key to a top effort. He finished third and well behind the top two finishers in the Grade 1 H. Allen Jerkens Memorial Stakes in August, but those two horses (Jackie's Warrior and Life is Good) both won their next starts in top stakes company. Before the Jerkens, Following Sea finished third when trying two-turns for the first time in the Grade 1 Haskell Stakes, an irrelevant experiment in my opinion. Prior to the Haskell, Following Sea won easily by six and one-half lengths at Belmont and prior to that he won by five and three-quarter lengths at this six furlong trip, earning a career best 110 ™ figure good enough to win this race. Cutting back to his best distance gives Following Sea a good shot to do just that and he's another likely to be a bit ignored in the wagering compared to others in this year's Vosburgh.

Firenze Fire is likely to be favored on the strength of his big effort at the end of August in the Grade 1 Forego Stakes. In the Forego, Firenze Fire went head-and-head with eventual winner Yaupon for the final quarter mile, even trying to bite his foe multiple times in the stretch run. That effort earned a strong 112 figure, similar to the 113 figure earned two races before that when second in the Grade 2 John A. Nerud Stakes at Belmont. Winner of the 2020 Vosburgh with a 116 figure, Firenze Fire shows up with his “A” game nearly every time he runs and must be respected as a contender.

Baby Yoda is one of two three year olds in the field, the other Following Sea. He is the most lightly raced horse in the group, having run four times, but he has improved markedly in each race, starting with an 84 figure effort, then 91, then 97 and finally 111 in his most recent race. That most recent effort on September 4 was visually impressive as Baby Yoda easily drew off to a four and one-quarter length victory. Trainer Bill Mott knows this young horse still has improving to do and that is why he puts him in a stakes race for the first time, as that 111 figure matches up well with the 112 figure Firenze Fire earned in the similar Grade 1 Forego Stakes one week before Baby Yoda's last win.

Jalen Journey has won eight of 16 career races including three of nine at this six furlong trip. All four of his stakes tries in the U.S. were excellent efforts, starting with a runner-up effort in the Grade 3 Smile Sprint Stakes in June 2019 in which he led late and missed by less than a length to a top sprinter in Diamond Oops. Since returning from Dubai in May of this year, Jalen Journey has finished first or second in all four races, most recently when crossing the line second but moved up to first in the Grade 3 Frank J. De Francis Memorial Dash Stakes when the winner was disqualified for interference. That effort earned a 108 figure and just prior to that Jalen Journey earned a career-best 111 figure, another effort on par with the best of this group

Top Win Contenders:
Good Effort (IRE)
Following Sea

Vosburgh Stakes – Grade 2
Race 5 at Belmont Park
Saturday, October 9 – Post Time 2:45 PM E.T.
Six Furlongs
Three Years Olds and Upward
Purse: $250,000

The post Equibase Analysis: Good Effort The One To Catch In Vosburgh appeared first on Horse Racing News | Paulick Report.

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