Equibase Economic Indicators For July: Decline In Field Size Affecting Wagering

Equibase, North American horse racing's official database, has released wagering statistics for the month of July and year to date, with comparisons to the COVID-19 influenced numbers from 2020 and pre-COVID stats from 2019. Equibase continues to supply monthly statistics during the pandemic after typically disseminating the information on a quarterly basis.

The economic indicators show a mixed bag of results, with July wagering up by 0.33 percent compared to July 2020 despite the addition of nearly 12 percent more racing days and 7.65 percent more races.

Wagering numbers undoubtedly were tempered by the nearly nine percent decline in average field size in July 2021, 6.95 horses per race compared with 7.62 in 2020. That contributed to a 10 percent decline in average wagering per race day. With fewer race days in July 2020 and for the first seven months of the year due to COVID shutdowns of some tracks, field size was greater in 2020.

Despite the stagnant July wagering, total purses jumped by more than 22 percent, with average purses per race day up by almost 10 percent.

Comparisons to July 2019 appear more favorable, with wagering up by almost 17 percent despite an eight percent drop in race days and starts. Average field size declined by 2.33 percent from July 2019 to July 2021.

Year-to-date figure comparisons to both 2020 and 2019 tell a similar story: wagering  is up double digits, but average field size has declined (though by less than one percent compared to 2019 year-to-date when there were 10 percent more race days). Total purses are up year-to-date by 51 percent compared to 2020 where there were 36 percent fewer races but they are down by 3.35 percent compared with 2019.

July 2021 vs. July 2020
Indicator July 2021 July 2020 % Change
Wagering on U.S. Races* $1,101,617,446 $1,098,021,143 +0.33%
U.S. Purses $110,489,273 $90,220,894 +22.47%
U.S. Race Days 445 398 +11.81%
U.S. Races 3,531 3,280 +7.65%
U.S. Starts 24,527 24,984 -1.83%
Average Field Size 6.95 7.62 -8.81%
Average Wagering Per Race Day $2,475,545 $2,758,847 -10.27%
Average Purses Per Race Day $248,291 $226,686 +9.53%

 

YTD 2021 vs. YTD 2020
Indicator YTD 2021 YTD 2020 % Change
Wagering on U.S. Races* $7,379,543,305 $6,152,548,050 +19.94%
U.S. Purses $625,643,005 $414,389,542 +50.98%
U.S. Race Days 2,326 1,699 +36.90%
U.S. Races 19,323 14,186 +36.21%
U.S. Starts 141,830 113,058 +25.45%
Average Field Size 7.34 7.97 -7.90%
Average Wagering Per Race Day $3,172,633 $3,621,276 -12.39%
Average Purses Per Race Day $268,978 $243,902 +10.28%

 

2019 Comparisons:

July 2021 vs. July 2019
Indicator July 2021 July 2019 % Change
Wagering on U.S. Races* $1,101,617,446 $942,243,633 +16.91%
U.S. Purses $110,489,273 $103,342,574 +6.92%
U.S. Race Days 445 484 -8.06%
U.S. Races 3,531 3,742 -5.64%
U.S. Starts 24,527 26,612 -7.83%
Average Field Size 6.95 7.11 -2.33%
Average Wagering Per Race Day $2,475,545 $1,946,784 +27.16%
Average Purses Per Race Day $248,291 $213,518 +16.29%

 

YTD 2021 vs. YTD 2019
Indicator YTD 2021 YTD 2019 % Change
Wagering on U.S. Races* $7,379,543,305 $6,615,017,905 +11.56%
U.S. Purses $625,643,005 $647,344,706 -3.35%
U.S. Race Days 2,326 2,588 -10.12%
U.S. Races 19,323 21,199 -8.85%
U.S. Starts 141,830 156,851 -9.58%
Average Field Size 7.34 7.40 -0.80%
Average Wagering Per Race Day $3,172,633 $2,556,035 +24.12%
Average Purses Per Race Day $268,978 $250,133 +7.53%

* Includes worldwide commingled wagering on U.S. races.

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Wagering, TV Ratings Drop Sharply During ‘Pandemic’ Triple Crown

Like the Triple Crown-opening Belmont Stakes in June and the delayed Kentucky Derby in September, Saturday's 145th running of the Preakness Stakes from Pimlico Race Course in Baltimore, Md., saw significant declines both in wagering and television viewership.

Normally run on the third Saturday in May, two weeks after the Kentucky Derby, this year's Preakness – like all three Triple Crown races – was run without spectators on site, meaning on-track wagering was minimal. The Preakness encountered not only increased competition from the sports world – it was up against six televised NCAA football games including Texas A&M at Alabama, Oklahoma State at Kansas and Ole Miss at Kentucky – but both Belmont Park and Keeneland offered a full slate of late afternoon graded stakes races serving as major preps for the Nov. 6-7 Breeders' Cup world championships.

For the day, according to Equibase, wagering on Pimlico's 12-race card was $51,242,631, a decline of 48.7% from the record $99,852,653 bet on the 14-race Preakness Day card in 2019. The Preakness race itself handled $31.7 million, down 49.5% from 2019 when $62.8 million was wagered on the classic race for 3-year-olds.

The wagering declines were similar to those experienced by Churchill Downs on Kentucky Derby day Sept. 5 and on the Derby itself, when handle dropped by 49.8% and 52.0%, respectively. Derby Day wagering fell from a record $250.9 million to $126.0 million and the Derby itself handled $79.4 million compared to $165.5 million in 2019.

The Belmont Stakes, which on June 20 kicked off a Triple Crown reshuffled because of the coronavirus pandemic, saw smaller wagering declines compared to 2019. The $67.8 million bet on this year's Belmont Stakes card was down 33.7% from $102.1 million in 2019 and the Belmont Stakes saw a 35.9% decline from $53.2 million to $34.1 million.

Combined, wagering on the three Triple Crown cards fell by more than $200 million, from $453 million in 2019 to $245 million this year, a decline of 45.9%.

Just as many other major league sports have struggled to maintain television viewership, so too have horse racing's marquee events. The combined viewing audience for the NBC Sports telecasts of the three Triple Crown races fell by 47.3%  from 26.6 million in 2019 to 14 million in 2020. The Belmont's 2.0 rating was the lowest in 24 years and the 4.8 rating for the Derby – traditionally the highest-rated racing telecast of the year – sank to a 32-year low. The Preakness rating of 1.4 represented a viewing audience of 2.4 million compared to 5.4 million in 2019.

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The Friday Show Presented By Woodbine: An Inspirational Choice At Keeneland

When Shannon Bishop Arvin begins her tenure on Jan. 1, 2021, as president of the Keeneland Association, she will be the first female to hold that position and one of the most powerful women in the Thoroughbred industry by virtue of the Lexington, Ky., racetrack and auction company's history as a leader and innovator.

Arvin, whose father and grandfather held important positions at Keeneland,  was interviewed recently by Paulick Report editor-in-chief Natalie Voss. She did not step back from the realization that her selection as Keeneland president can serve as an inspiration to other women throughout the industry. “It's not lost on me,” she said, “and I hope it does let women know that if you just get up every day and keep after it and be persistent, anything is possible.”

In this week's edition of the Friday Show, publisher Ray Paulick and Voss discuss the appointment of Arvin as Keeneland president and what her focus may be after she takes the reins of power.

They also review wagering data for American racing that suggests how – in this year of the coronavirus pandemic – the shift from on-track or OTB bets to advance-deposit wagering has not been a boon to purse money.

Watch the Friday Show below.

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