Equibase Analysis: Vertical Threat Can Lead All The Way In Santa Anita Sprint Championship

This Saturday's Grade 2, $200,000 Santa Anita Sprint Championship Stakes is a “Win & You're In” for the Breeders' Cup Sprint. Although only drawing a field of six, there is not one horse entered who is without a chance to succeed.

  • Leading the field is C Z Rocket, who has earned nearly $1.5 million while winning 11 of 28 races in his career, including the 2020 Santa Anita Sprint Championship Stakes.
  • Flagstaff was beaten a head in last year's edition of the race and has done little wrong in his last four races, winning the Grade 1 Churchill Downs Stakes in May and most recently finishing third and a head behind runner-up C Z Rocket in the Grade 2 Pat O'Brien Stakes.
  • The third place finisher last year was Collusion Illusion, who had won the Grade 1 Bing Crosby Stakes one month earlier. After taking eight months off following a third place finish last December in the Grade 1 Malibu Stakes, Collusion Illusion most recently finished seventh while trying turf for the first time in the Grade 3 Green Flash Handicap and could improve back on the surface where he has won five of eight races in his career.
  • Vertical Threat has won four of five dirt sprints in his career, three of those stakes including the Steel Valley Sprint last November and most recently the Russel Road Stakes.
  • Dr. Schivel, the only 3-year-old in the field, won the Bing Crosby this year as Collusion Illusion had done last year at the same age before finishing third in this race. Winner of four races in a row after losing his first two, Dr. Schivel appears to be on the verge of another top effort.
  • Colt Fiction rounds out the field. Runner-up in the Thor's Echo Stakes for California bred horses only in June, he enters the Santa Anita Sprint Championship off a victory against softer foes in an allowance race.

As mentioned previously, Vertical Threat is a perfect four for five in dirt sprints. Three of those three wins came at the six furlong distance of the Santa Anita Sprint Championship. The fastest of those came last November when leading from start to finish to draw off by seven and one-half lengths in the Steel Valley Sprint, earning a career-best 118 ™ Equibase® Speed Figure on par with the 117 figure C Z Rocket earned winning this race last year. Although this field is composed of some top sprinters, none has the early speed of Vertical Threat, which he not only used to win the Steel Valley Sprint but also most recently when winning the Russell Road Stakes. Leading from start to finish on fast fractions for the track at Charles Town, Vertical Threat still pulled away late to win by three and one-half lengths.

Cutting back from seven furlongs to the six furlong trip he so dearly loves, and making his third start after returning from an eight month layoff, I have little doubt jockey Abel Cedillo is going to put Vertical Threat on the lead and play “come catch me” with the field. Considering those tactics were successful in the colt's last two wins and considering the 118 figure earned in one of them is good enough to win in this field, Vertical Threat may be very tough to beat in this situation.

C Z Rocket was claimed for a fairly paltry $40,000 in April of 2020, compared to the more than $1 million he's earned since then winning seven of 10 races. He won the 2020 Pat O'Brien Stakes at Del Mar with a 110 ™ figure before a career-best 117 figure in last year's Santa Anita Sprint Championship. Not disgraced one bit following that when second in the 2020 Breeders' Cup Sprint, C Z Rocket returned in March to win the Hot Springs Stakes (111 figure) and the Count Fleet Stakes (114 figure) and has run well in three races since, all graded stakes, without winning. It's possible the seven year old has lost a step but on the other hand considering he's on the same pattern as before winning last year's edition of this race by cutting back from seven furlongs to six, he must be respected as a contender.

Flagstaff won the Commonwealth Stakes at seven furlongs in April and the Churchill Downs Stakes in May then cut back to six and one half furlongs and ran in to a buzzsaw in Firenze Fire when second in the True North Stakes with a 110 figure in June. Rested nearly three months while pointing to his race, Flagstaff was only a head behind C Z Rocket in the Pat O'Brien and so is on the same pattern he was last year when second in the Pat O'Brien behind C Z Rocket before losing by a head to the same horse in the Santa Anita Sprint Championship. That effort tied a career-best 117 figure earned when beaten a neck in the Palos Verdes Stakes in January of 2020 at this six furlong trip. Cutting back a furlong while making his second start off a layoff just as he did when almost winning this race last year, Flagstaff has a strong chance to add to his seven for 21 record on dirt and $1 million in career earnings.

The rest of the field, with their best ™ Equibase Speed Figures, is Collusion Illusion (114), Colt Fiction (110) and Dr. Schivel (109).

Win Contenders:
Vertical Threat
C Z Rocket
Flagstaff

Santa Anita Sprint Championship Stakes – Grade 2
Race 8 at Santa Anita
Saturday, October 2 – Post Time 7 PM E.T.
Six Furlongs
Three Years Olds and Upward
Purse: $200,000

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Many Chances in Deep Bing

Handicappers will have a tough time tossing many horses from their tickets as a competitive nine-horse field lines up for Saturday's six-furlong GI Bing Crosby S. at Del Mar, a “Win and You're In” qualifier for the GI Breeders' Cup Sprint.

Given a slight nod on the morning line at 5-2 is C Z Rocket (City Zip). Claimed for $40,000 last spring at Oaklawn by Peter Miller, the gelding has been a new horse since, winning seven of nine races while finishing second in the other two. That streak includes a score in last summer's GII Pat O'Brien S. over this oval. The 7-year-old most recently was second when stretching out in the GIII Steve Sexton Mile S. May 31 at Lone Star.

California-bred Brickyard Ride (Clubhouse Ride) rates a big chances breaking from the outermost stall. Earning a shot at open company after a convincing score in the California Cup Sprint S. Jan. 16 at Santa Anita, the Alfred Pais homebred didn't disappoint, cruising to an impressive four-length victory despite setting a scorching pace in the GII San Carlos S. Mar. 6. Well-beaten in his next two, he rebounded with a 4 3/4-length success in the Cal-bred Thor's Echo S. last out June 12.

Dr. Schivel (Violence) takes on older horses in just his fifth career start. Taking three tries to break his maiden, he came right back to annex the GI Runhappy Del Mar Futurity for Luis Mendez, but went unseen for over nine months after that before eventually returning with a narrow allowance/optional claiming tally for new trainer Mark Glatt June 18 at Santa Anita.

Defending Bing Crosby champion Collusion Illusion (Twirling Candy) makes his 4-year-old debut here. Runner-up in the GII Santa Anita Championship S. after his local heroics, he was 12th in the GI Breeders' Cup Sprint before rebounding some to be third in the GI Runhappy Malibu S.

Other contenders include Vertical Threat (Tapiture), last seen romping by 7 1/2 lengths with a 102 Beyer in last November's Steel Valley Sprint S. at Mahoning Valley, Quick Tempo (Tapizar), who did his name justice when setting splits of :21.44 and :43.35 before setting for second in the Iowa Sprint S. at Prairie Meadows July 3, and Eight Rings (Empire Maker), who's winless in four starts since capturing the GI American Pharoah S. as a juvenile but shows a sharp worktab for Bob Baffert that includes a five-furlong bullet in :58 3/5 (1/91) July 10 in Arcadia.

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Equibase Analysis: Vertical Threat Poised To Upset Bing Crosby

This Saturday's Grade 1, $300,000 Bing Crosby Stakes at Del Mar is a “Win & You're In” for the Breeders' Cup Sprint this fall and as such drew a field full of very good sprinters, nine to be exact. Last year's Bing Crosby Stakes winner Collusion Illusion is back to defend his title but whereas he was sent to post at nine to five odds one year ago on the strength of three straight wins, including the Grade 3 Lazaro Barrera Stakes, this year Collusion Illusion returns from seven months off and lost his last three starts of 2020.

Instead, favoritism is likely to go to C Z Rocket with career earnings of nearly $1.4 million, much of that earned when second in the Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Sprint last fall and when winning the Grade 2 Pat O'Brien Stakes at Del Mar last summer. Law Abidin Citizen was third in last year's Bing Crosby behind Collusion Illusion then four weeks later finished third in the Pat O'Brien behind C Z Rocket. He enters the race off a win in the Oak Tree Sprint Stakes four weeks ago at Pleasanton.

Vertical Threat is another with strong stakes credentials, last seen winning the Steel Valley Sprint Stakes in November and having also won the Smiling Tiger Stakes at Del Mar last summer. Quick Tempo returned from nearly seven months off four weeks ago for a strong second place effort in the Iowa Sprint Stakes, while Brickyard Ride easily won the Grade 2 San Carlos Stakes in March and enters the race off a win in the Thor's Echo Stakes.

Shooters Shoot is yet another with good credentials in similar sprint stakes as he was second in the Grade 2 Triple Bend Stakes when last seen at the end of May. Eight Rings finished fourth in that race as the eight to five favorite and hasn't run since. Dr. Schivel rounds out the field, but has to be considered a contender as he won the Grade 1 Del Mar Futurity last summer and returned from nine months off to win just last month.

Vertical Threat is a perfect three-for-three in sprints. Each of those three wins came at the six furlong distance of the Bing Crosby. One of those wins came at Del Mar last summer when, in only the second start of his career, Vertical Threat won the Smiling Tiger Stakes. That effort earned him a career-best 107 ™ Equibase® Speed Figure off a 102 figure one month earlier. After a failed attempt at a longer distance in the Pat Day Mile last September, Vertical Threat rested two months and shipped to Ohio for a dominant performance with a field high 118 figure winning the Steel Valley Sprint Stakes in a field of 12. In this year's Bing Crosby there is likely to be a contested early pace battle between Quick Tempo and Brickyard Ride, who have only won when leading from the start. Considering Vertical Threat closed from off the pace to win last June then again in July in the Smiling Tiger, the colt could get first run on the tiring leaders and hold off any horses farther back in the early stages. Additionally, he's very likely to be stronger as a four year old so having put in some superb workouts for his comeback, Vertical Threat has a fine chance to keep his perfect record at the distance intact to win.

C Z Rocket has won 11 of 26 career races including four of eight at this distance. He also won the only time he ever raced at Del Mar. That win came last year when taking the Pat O'Brien Stakes at seven furlongs in August with a 110 ™ figure. C Z Rocket is even faster at this six furlong trip, as he earned a 117 figure last September when victorious in the Santa Anita Sprint Championship. Not disgraced one bit when second behind Whitmore in the Breeders' Cup Sprint last fall, C Z Rocket won his first two starts of 2021, first with a 111 figure in the Hot Springs Stakes then a 114 in the Count Fleet Sprint Handicap. Stretching out to a mile and running over a sloppy track, C Z Rocket was second in the Steve Sexton Mile in May and on the cut back to his best distance has every right to rebound to a winning effort.

Dr. Schivel, like Vertical Threat, has only run five times. He improved markedly last summer at Del Mar when easily winning to break his maiden in his third career start (with a 108 figure) before victory in the Del Mar Futurity as the betting favorite. Taking his time to get back to the races, Dr. Schivel returned in June as if he had never been away as he relaxed in fourth in the early stages before getting up by a neck right on the wire. That effort earned him a new career best 109 figure from which he should improve in his second start off the layoff, and as a previous grade 1 stakes winner, Dr. Schivel could certainly run well enough to win.

The rest of the field, with their best ™ Equibase Speed Figures, is Brickyard Ride (115), Collusion Illusion (111), Eight Rings (104), Law Abidin Citizen (108), Quick Tempo (107) and Shooters Shoot (101).

Win Contenders:
Vertical Threat
C Z Rocket
Dr. Schivel

Bing Crosby Stakes – Grade 1
Race 10 at Del Mar
Saturday, July 31 – Post Time 9:30 PM E.T.
Six Furlongs
Three Years Olds and Upward
Purse: $300,000

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Vertical Threat Invades From California To Win Steel Valley Sprint At Mahoning Valley

Breaking a step slowly from the rail post under Heriberto Figueroa, MyRaceHorse.com and Slam Dunk Racing's Vertical Threat quickly assumed command and was never seriously threatened en route to a 7 1/2-length victory in Monday's $200,000 Steel Valley Sprint at Mahoning Valley Race Course in Youngstown, Ohio.

Sent off as the even-money favorite, the Richard Baltas-trained colt by Tapiture covered six furlongs on a muddy track in 1:10.07 in the race restricted to 3-year-olds. Williston Way edged Flatter Me Please for second after the two raced as a team down the stretch, with Night Time finishing 6 1/2 lengths further back in fourth in the field of 12. Shashashakemeup and Golden Candy were scratched.

Vertical Threat paid $4.20 to win as the even-money favorite. He earned $112,800 for the victory.

While he was coming off a sixth-place finish after setting quick fractions for the opening six furlongs in the Grade 2 Pat Day Mile at Churchill Downs last time out on the Sept. 5 Kentucky Derby day card, Vertical Threat prepared for the Steel Valley Sprint in Southern California at the San Luis Rey training center. His first three races were in California, including a victory in the restricted Smiling Tiger Stakes at Del Mar in late July.

Southern California-based Figueroa – now a perfect three-for-three on the colt – guided Vertical Threat off the rail shortly after assuming command and remained well off the fence through fractions of :22.89, :45.59 and :57.63.

The victory was the third in five starts for Vertical Threat, produced from the Omega Code mare Viola Blew By and  bred in Kentucky by Albert Davis and Teresa Davis. MyRaceHorse.com paid $100,000 for Vertical Threat at the 2019 OBS April Sale of 2-year-olds in training.

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