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Brad Cox Joins TDN Writers’ Room Podcast

He just won the GII Risen Star S., has a strong pair entered in Saturday's GII Rebel S. and accounts for 10 horses being offered in the latest round of the Derby Future Wager. When it comes to 3-year-old talent, Brad Cox's lineup has tremendous quality and tremendous quantity. In the spotlight virtually every Saturday that includes a prep race for the GI Kentucky Derby, Cox found the time to join the team for this week's Thoroughbred Daily News Writers' Room podcast presented by Keeneland to discuss his Derby prospects. Cox was this week's Green Group Guest of the Week.

So far as the Rebel, in which he will start Verifying (Justify) and Giant Mischief (Into Mischief), Cox is optimistic he can pick up another major win on the road to the Derby.

“I think that Verifying is a very good horse,” he said. “The last time out at Oaklawn, he showed the ability to set close to the pace. I think the fractions [in the Rebel] will be similar, maybe even quicker. I don't expect to necessarily be on the lead but somewhat forwardly placed in a good stalking position. If he runs as well as he's training, I think he's going to be right there. He's a good colt. Giant Mischief is also a very good colt. I thought he ran a winning race at Remington [in the Springboard Mile], but, obviously, just didn't get away well. He made a big middle move and then kind of flattened out. This was by design to give him a little time after that race. He had three good runs at two, three positive races. And I thought he showed in his Remington race that he could stretch out. We're looking forward to getting him started at three.”

Like most trainers with top horses and clients, winning the Derby has become a focal point for Cox, who said he's living a dream with this many good horses.

“This has been my dream for a long, long time, to get into this position, acquire good colts from top outfits, top breeders, top owners throughout the country,” he said. “These horses, you need to have a lot of them to be on this stage. That we have so many at this point just proves that we've got a really, really good program. It's a team effort and it's years and years of training young horses and being able to stop on them when they need to be stopped on and then having them ready to go in the fall of their two-year-old year or to begin their three-year-old season to try to make that push for the Kentucky Derby because it is very, very demanding.”

Officially, Cox has won the Kentucky Derby. The Cox-trained Mandaloun (Into Mischief) was awarded the win in 2021 after Medina Spirit (Protonico) was disqualified due to a medication overage. But Cox said he doesn't really feel like he's won the race and wants to win it by sending out the best horse.

“It hasn't felt like winning the Kentucky Derby,” he said. “If you're awarded the race how do you explain that to people? I have to say, 'Oh, yeah, I've won it, but my horse didn't cross the wire first.' If I met a stranger and they didn't know much about horse racing, I'd have to explain how I won the Derby. I definitely don't feel that we've won the Kentucky Derby. We know the Kentucky Derby is not the richest race run in America, but I think it is without a doubt the most prestigious. All the eyes are on racing that day with the telecast, the crowd and everything. And it's the thrill of victory, bottom line. I haven't experienced that thrill and I look forward to it someday.”

Elsewhere on the podcast, which is also sponsored by Coolmore, the Pennsylvania Horse Breeders Association, XBTV, Kentucky Thoroughbred Owners and Breeders and West Point Thoroughbreds, Randy Moss, Zoe Cadman and Bill Finley reviewed last week's races at the Fair Grounds, including the Risen Star and the disappointing effort by Hoosier Philly (Into Mischief) in the GII Rachel Alexandra S. Steve Asmussen's 10,000th win was also discussed with Finley predicting that Asmussen is setting records that will never be broken. To preview the G1 Saudi Cup, Cadman caught up with jockeys Mike Smith and Frankie Dettori in a new segment on the podcast, 1/ST things 1/ST at Santa Anita.

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Cox Unveils Plans for 3-Year-Old Colts

For the Brad Cox stable, the road to the GI Kentucky Derby will make a stop Saturday at Oaklawn where Verifying (Justify) will run in an allowance race. It will be his first start since finishing sixth in the GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile. Cox will also send out Judo (Street Sense), who will not be among the favorites in the race. But even if the Cox pair falters, he'll still be loaded. The trainer, whose Mandaloun (Into Mischief) was placed first in the 2021 Derby with the disqualification of Medina Spirit (Protonico), has at least eight legitimate candidates for the Derby. Here's a look at his lineup:

Verifying: A $775,000 Keeneland September purchase, he was second in the GI Champagne S. before finishing mid-pack in the Juvenile.

“Hopefully, the race Saturday will be the start of a big year for him and everything will go well for him on Saturday,” Cox said. “After this race and if everything goes well Saturday we'll look for a Triple Crown prep.”

Loggins (Ghostzapper): Though he finished second behind eventual Juvenile winner Forte (Violence) in the GI Breeders' Futurity, Loggins served notice that day that he is a horse to be reckoned with. Of the two, Forte clearly had the better trip and Loggins was fighting back at the end. Afterward, Cox decided to pass on the Juvenile and freshen the horse up for the Derby. Loggins remains at WinStar Farm, where he went after the Breeders' Futurity for some R & R, but the trainer said he should arrive back at his Fair Grounds barn shortly. Cox remains undecided when it comes to Loggins's next race.

Victory Formation (Tapwrit): In his first try around two turns, Victory Formation won the Jan. 1 one-mile Smarty Jones S. at Oaklawn by three lengths. Having passed the all-important distance test, he should be ready for a tougher assignment. Cox said the colt will go next in either the GII Rebel S. or the GII Risen Star S.

Angel of Empire (Classic Empire): Finished second behind stablemate Victory Formation in the Smarty Jones. His next start will be in either the Rebel or Risen Star.

Instant Coffee (Bolt d'Oro): Was last seen winning the GII Kentucky Jockey Club S. on Nov. 26 at Churchill. That he's already won around two turns and at Churchill Downs are pluses. He will run next in the GIII Lecomte S. on Jan. 21 at Fair Grounds.

“He's doing well,” Cox said. “Since his last run we've been pointing to the Lecomte and have freshened him up a bit. He's been training very well here at the Fair Grounds.”

Jace's Road (Quality Road): Is coming off a huge run in the Dec. 26 Gun Runner S. at Fair Grounds, which he won by 5 1/2 lengths and under wraps. He's been working regularly since and Cox said the GIII Southwest S. will be next for him.

Giant Mischief (Into Mischief): Suffered somewhat of a setback when he couldn't win the Springboard Mile S. at Remington as the 4-5 favorite. Nonetheless, he was second and ran well enough to suggest he still belongs in the Derby picture. Cox said the Rebel will be next.

“He had three runs as a 2-year-old and ran in mid-December,” Cox said. “I feel like he'll only need two starts before the Derby. We'll find out if we can earn enough points and if he's worthy of making it into the Derby.”'

Corona Bolt (Bolt d'Oro): Is 2-for-2 and was an impressive winner of the six-furlong Sugar Bowl S., where he earned a 97 Beyer figure. Can he stretch out?

“He's a good colt,” Cox said. “We will try him in the Southwest and will prepare him at the Fair Grounds for his first run around two turns. There's always a little bit of a question whether they want to go two turns. He's a horse with a lot of speed but he's also intelligent and seems to relax and respond to what the rider wants.”

Though Cox has officially won a Derby, he admits he'd like to get another one and do so with a horse who crosses the wire first. He's optimistic that within this deep group there may be that special horse.

“It is a very good group that we have,” he said. “I felt last summer that we had a very good group of colts. I feel fortunate and am very happy with where we are. But I'm the first to admit there's a long way to go before we get to the first Saturday in May and that things have to go right.

“The Derby is why I get up and do this every day. It means a tremendous amount to me and to everyone in our stable. It means a lot to the owners and the race really helps drive this game. It's the biggest race we have in America. For me, it would be great to win it the right way and cross the wire first.”

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Cox Juveniles Top Breeders’ Cup Tab at Churchill

The Brad Cox stablemates Chop Chop (City of Light) and Verifying (Justify) worked five furlongs in company Friday morning at Churchill Downs as they prepare for next Friday's GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies and GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile, respectively.

The pair broke off and began their breeze at the 4 1/2-furlong pole and were clocked in fractions of :11.80, :23.40, :35.80 and :47.40 before galloping out six furlongs in 1:13 flat, according to Churchill clocker John Nichols. Joe Talamo was aboard Chop Chop, last seen finishing a desperately close second to Wonder Wheel (Into Mischief) in the GI Darley Alcibiades S. at Keeneland, while Florent Geroux partnered with Verifying, an impressive debut winner on the GI Runhappy Travers S. undercard at Saratoga Aug. 27 ahead of a runner-up effort to Blazing Sevens (Good Magic) in the GI Champagne S. at Aqueduct.

“It was a real good move for both of them,” said Cox, who will saddle five horses on Breeders' Cup weekend. “I thought Chop Chop was moving maybe a little easier on the outside. They both cooled out well and will head over to Keeneland Monday. (Chop Chop) ran a winning race in the Alcibiades and came up short. If she has similar effort and gets out of the gate well I think she'll run well. I'm really happy with both her and Verifying at this stage of their career. They are both being young horses and seem to be developing the right way into the Breeders' Cup.”

There was an unfortunate development during Friday trackwork at Churchill when Cox assistant Katie Tolbert suffered a serious injury to her left leg and was transported to a local hospital via ambulance, according to Daily Racing Form's Marty McGee. Tolbert was reportedly thrown off an unraced 2-year-old in the pre-dawn hours and struck a grandstand box-seat railing. DRF reported that training at the track was halted for about 40 minutes while Tolbert was attended to.

Also on the Friday worktab at Churchill were Breeders' Cup hopefuls Xigera (Nyquist), who went a half-mile in company in :48.80 for either the GI Juvenile Fillies Turf (first preference) or Juvenile Fillies; and GI Mile candidate Smooth Like Strait (Midnight Lute).

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Taking Stock: Freshman Sires Are Flexing

This is somewhat of a watershed year for freshman sires, with six first-crop sires within the top 10 on the list of leading sires of 2-year-olds in North America through Monday. Spendthrift stalwart Into Mischief leads the group (as he has for five of the last seven years), but the same farm's freshman Bolt d'Oro (Medaglia d'Oro) is second, Hill 'n' Dale's Good Magic (Curlin) is third, Coolmore America's Justify (Scat Daddy) is fourth, Hill 'n' Dale's Army Mule (Friesan Fire) is fifth, Three Chimneys's Sharp Azteca (Freud) is seventh, and Airdrie's Girvin (Tale of Ekati), relocated from Florida for the 2023 season, is ninth through Monday.

Also threatening to make the top 10 by year's end are Coolmore America's Mendelssohn (Scat Daddy) in 11th, Mill Ridge's Oscar Performance (Kitten's Joy) in 15th, and Lane's End's City of Light (Quality Road) in 16th.

To put this in perspective, consider that among freshman sires in 2014 only Lane's End's Quality Road (seventh) and WinStar's Super Saver (ninth) made the top 10 list; in 2015, Coolmore America's Uncle Mo (first) was the sole first-crop representative; in 2016, there was only Darby Dan's Dialed In (ninth); in 2017, the two freshmen were WinStar's Overanalyze (ninth) and Hill 'n' Dale's Violence (10th); in 2018, only Spendthrift's duo of Cross Traffic (fourth) and Goldencents (10th) made the cut; in 2019, Coolmore America's American Pharoah (second), WinStar's Constitution (fourth), and Three Chimneys's Palace Malice (eighth) made it three for the young guns; in 2020, another trio made the list, with Darley's Nyquist (third) topping Sequel/WinStar's Laoban (fifth) and Taylor Made's Not This Time (sixth).

Last year, four freshman sires made the top 10: Three Chimneys's Gun Runner (first), Coolmore America's Practical Joke (third), Lane's End's Connect (fifth), and Coolmore America's Classic Empire (10th).

The trend is obvious, isn't it? More freshman sires are flexing their way into the top 10 this year than before, and it's not like they were uniformly the recipients of the best mares. At an opening stud fee of $150,000, Triple Crown winner Justify was getting that quality of mare, but horses like Girvin, who started off for $7,500 at Ocala Stud in Florida; Sharp Azteca at $10,000; and Army Mule at $10,000 were not.

Bolt d'Oro ($25,000), Good Magic ($35,000), Mendelssohn ($35,000), Oscar Performance ($20,000) and City of Light ($35,000) were priced to compete with one another in 2019, but they were cheaper than a number of proven sires not in the top 20 to date, such as Tapit ($225,000), Speightstown ($80,000), More Than Ready ($80,000), Ghostzapper ($85,000), Candy Ride (Arg) ($80,000), Curlin ($175,000), and Quality Road ($150,000), to name a few.

The five Breeders' Cup juvenile races will play a pivotal role in deciding where these freshmen end up when all is said and done, but several have live contenders, including the three just outside the top 10.

For first-crop sire watchers, it's going to be an interesting Breeders' Cup.

Breeders' Cup Juvenile

Among freshmen, Good Magic, a champion 2-year-old, holds a strong pair for the GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile with Breeders' Cup Challenge winner Blazing Sevens, who won the Gl Champagne S. at Belmont-at-Aqueduct, and Curly Jack, winner of the Glll Iroquois S. at Churchill. So far, Good Magic is the sire of 17 winners and three black-type winners–each of them at graded level. Only Justify has as many graded/group winners, but no freshman except for Good Magic has sired a Grade l winner so far.

Justify, who didn't race at two, has a contender in Verifying, who was second to Blazing Sevens in the Champagne, and he leads all freshman sires with four black-type winners. He's represented by 20 winners overall.

Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies

City of Light has a good chance in the GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies with Chop Chop, who lost the Gl Darley Alcibiades S. at Keeneland by a nose. She's one of three black-type winners for City of Light from eight winners so far.

Good Magic's Gll Sorrento S. winner at Del Mar, Vegas Magic, was most recently fourth in the Gl Del Mar Debutante, but she has points and has been training forwardly.

Justify's Just Cindy, winner of the Glll Schuylerville S. at Saratoga in July, has since been defeated in both the Gl Spinaway at Saratoga and the Alcibiades, but his daughter Justique, most recently third in the Gll Chandelier S. at Santa Anita, may be a possibility for the race.

Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf

Mendelssohn's Delight won the Gll J.P. Morgan Chase Jessamine S. at Keeneland, a Breeders' Cup Challenge race, by five lengths with her ears pricked and looks a strong contender for the North American contingent. She's her sire's lone black-type winner from 17 winners overall.

Oscar Performance's G Laurie has points for the race as well. She was third in the Gl Natalma S. at Woodbine with a troubled trip and is one of 11 winners for Oscar Performance, who is represented by one black-type winner to date–the Grade ll-winning colt Andthewinneris.

Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf

Andthewinneris won the Gll Bourbon S. at Keeneland, a Breeders' Cup Challenge race, leading a one-two finish for Oscar Performance with Deer District in second. Not only that, Oscar Performance also has Lachaise, who was third in the Gll Pilgrim S. at Belmont-at-Aqueduct, with points for the GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf.

Bolt d'Oro also has a couple of contenders. His Major Dude won the aforementioned Pilgrim, a Challenge race, and Boppy O won the Glll With Anticipation S. at Saratoga. They are two of four black-type winners for Bolt d'Oro, who is represented by 19 winners.

City of Light's Battle of Normandy, second in the With Anticipation, also has points for the race, as does freshman sire Cloud Computing (Maclean's Music) with I'm Very Busy, second in the Pilgrim. Cloud Computing doesn't have a black-type winner yet, but he's represented by eight winners.

Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint

Sharp Azteca's undefeated Iowa-bred Tyler's Tribe has been penciled in for the GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint. He's never raced over turf, but he's registered some sparkling Beyer Speed Figures in dirt sprints, and his sire has been represented by some turf winners. Tyler's Tribe is one of three black-type winners for Sharp Azteca, who has 23 winners. One of them is Sharp Aza Tack, who won the Listed Tyro S. at Monmouth over five furlongs on turf by 7 1/4 lengths, and he could be a possibility for this race as well. He last worked five furlongs over Keeneland's all-weather training track in 1:00.20 Saturday.

City of Light's Gaslight Dancer, who was second by a neck in the six-furlong Glll Futurity S. at Belmont-at-Aqueduct on turf, also has points for the race.

A Takeaway

The freshman sires competing to make this list are doing so not only against others with first crops, but also against established sires. They are also fighting to make themselves relevant for next year, because in the commercial marketplace that now exists, a poor showing this year will mean fewer mares to cover next spring. It's paramount, therefore, that they get some graded winners or a Grade l winner among their first 2-year-olds, and it's for this reason that stud farms front load their books as much as they can with more quality than most will see again unless they are successful.

One result of this is that a stallion's second, third and fourth books usually tend to yield less quality than the first, and yearling buyers, aware of this phenomenon, tend to pay more for first-crop yearlings.

Moreover, even those stallions that end up in the top 10 this year aren't necessarily guaranteed to succeed, unless their first 3-year-olds continue to win next year. Note that in 2017, Overanalyze was ninth on this list but is no longer in Kentucky, while Violence, who was 10th the same year, has continued to make a mark and is represented by Forte, the leading 2-year-old in the East this year.

Some excellent stallions have also emerged from a prominent spot as freshmen on this list over the years. In 2014, it was Quality Road; in 2015, Uncle Mo; in 2019, American Pharoah and Constitution; in 2020, Not This Time; and last year, Gun Runner.

Sid Fernando is president and CEO of Werk Thoroughbred Consultants, Inc., originator of the Werk Nick Rating and eNicks.

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