Value Sires, Part VI: Earning their Stripes

This can be a terrifying business. Here we are, for the first time in this series, assessing stallions that have at least put some sophomores through the starting gate. And already, commercially, the game appears to be up for many. So much so, in fact, that to give adequate competitive depth to our value podium, we're going to combine the consecutive intakes who were in 2021 respectively contesting the second- and third-crop championships.

Here's just one example of how ruthless the market is. I won't name the stallion, because he doesn't deserve the ignominy: I have long thought him exactly the type we should be embracing, amply satisfying the criteria of pedigree, performance and physique. But anyone who can be bothered to do a couple of minutes' research will soon figure it out. All I'll say is that since a brilliant sales debut, amply vindicating his status as one of the most expensive freshmen, he has produced three Grade I winners from three crops: the same as American Pharoah and one more than the acknowledged breakout of their class, Constitution. In 2021, he was down to 29 mares.

Perhaps he can still renew momentum as he merits. In principle, however, his treatment shows how this marketplace can menace a stallion with commercial extinction virtually overnight. Sure, as we've previously acknowledged in this series, it's fair enough to reach some tentative early conclusions about a stallion if he can't make the most of the huge opportunity that breeders, in their dread of exposure on the racetrack itself, will give to new sires. But we should at least allow their first couple of crops time to mature before making any such judgement. As it is, we tend to anoint just one or two immediate achievers in each intake, and dump the rest more or less on the spot. The commercial highwire tapers to a thread very quickly.

And the whole process, of course, becomes self-fulfilling. You might still get lucky, might still come up with a champion from a handful of mares, but this is a numbers game and the odds obviously steepen with the loss of volume. Little wonder so many stallions at this stage tend to disappear into overseas or regional programs.

At the other end of the scale, the chosen few tend to be very few indeed. With one or two marginal exceptions lower down, of this year's leading second-crop sires only Nyquist and Not This Time have managed to move up their opening fees; and among the preceding group, only Constitution, Liam's Map and Daredevil. The latter's history is a cautionary one, of course, the market having exceptionally repented of his banishment abroad.

So how do we identify value? Many stallions we might consider unfairly neglected could only be recommended to end-users, who might like to breed a runner for a cheap fee, as their sales trajectory is pointing to the door. The few who retain commercial credibility, meanwhile, are generally charged at a corresponding rate. Constitution, for instance, has made the grade in utterly convincing fashion, but he's no longer very accessible as a result. With even more than the usual diffidence, then, here are one or two subjective discoveries of residual value across these two groups.

Bubbling under: Okay, so most of us can't even think about paying $55,000 to cover a mare. But value is relative, and those who can afford to play at this level will be grateful for Darley's immediate retraction of Nyquist's fee hike to $75,000 last year (from $40,000). Because even though he had to wait until the other day for his first graded stakes winner since, when Slow Down Andy advertised his Derby credentials in the GII Los Alamitos Futurity, Nyquist has been extremely consistent in producing horses of elite caliber.

While he has so far managed to get no more than 125 of his 197 named foals onto the track, he now has no fewer than 22 stakes performers, 14 placed in graded company and six at Grade I level. He hasn't converted that presence to winners as efficiently as Not This Time–a horse we have esteemed from the start, and likely to do better yet with the improvement in his book quality–but there's no doubt that Nyquist has secured commercial viability, with his third crop of yearlings averaging $158,442; and his 2-year-olds $342,043, third among all sires in 2021.

No young stallion is more obviously equipped to get you a runner–literally–than Upstart, who has put 118 of 149 named foals onto the racetrack already, a dozen of them placed at stakes level. He was multiple Grade I-placed at two, three and four, so expect his stock to keep thriving. And while his third crop of yearlings were processed modestly enough, pinhookers will surely have noticed his fantastic yields at the 2-year-old sales: $113,250 this spring, after clocking $107,791 with his first crop. Stay on board, definitely, at $10,000 with Airdrie.

Firing Line | Crestwood

Bronze: FIRING LINE (Line of David–Sister Girl Blues, by Hold for Gold)
$5,000 Crestwood

Now here's an intriguing animal. You have to go some way down the second-crop table to find him, but that's no less than you would expect of a stallion with just 38 starters to date. But not only have 22 of them won; two members of Firing Line's second crop have placed in significant Grade II races.

The homebred Venti Valentine was runner-up in the Demoiselle S., having won a maiden and then a Listed race on her first two starts, while $25,000 yearling Nakatomi has also won in stakes company since finished third in the Saratoga Special S. Plenty of Firing Line's rivals, launched with industrial books, could do with that kind of footprint–not to mention a $210,000 2-year-old like Oscarette, who recently won her maiden at Churchill.

Firing Line missed a juvenile Grade I by a nose, won the GIII Sunland Park Derby by 14 lengths (track record) and was beaten only by a Triple Crown winner on the first Saturday in May. He derailed in the Preakness, failed to reward perseverance with a single disappointing start at four, and was doubtless further held back by a commercially unfamiliar sire and damsire. But he was actually working with a serious genetic package: out of a Grade I-placed half-sister to the dams of two Grade I-winning milers from a line tracing to matriarchs Kamar and Square Angel.

Firing Line is in exemplary hands, but has obviously only mustered very small books so far. Breeders of sufficient imagination and adventure will surely want to explore the way he has seized such limited opportunities at this budget fee.

Silver: TONALIST (Tapit–Settling Mist, by Pleasant Colony)
$10,000 Lane's End 

It has been uphill nearly all the way for this fellow, whose fee has come down yet again, but I have admired him throughout and he has had another solid year, maintaining black-type action at essentially the same ratio as Liam's Map. Few would dispute that his lauded studmate has earned his fee, which is four times higher, not least with his useful habit of hitting the bull's-eye with his best runners. It was typical of the understated style of Tonalist, in contrast, that after Country Grammer gave him a deserved Grade I breakthrough in the Hollywood Gold Cup, he promptly disappeared and has only just returned to the worktab.

Tonalist's 11 graded stakes performers through three crops represent 4.33% of named foals, almost exactly in step with Liam's Map (a dozen at a 4.17%). There are plenty of others in this intake, charging far more than Tonalist, who can't even nudge two percent.

Tonalist's books have been up and down but he does have one of 122 to keep him in the game with his 2022 yearlings, and their breeders can take heart from a median of $35,000 for the preceding crop. That's not at all bad for a sire standing at this kind of money, at this challenging stage of his career. But no bones about it, the real appeal of Tonalist is that he is shaping up as a sire who can outpunch his fee on the racetrack. Remember he reached his own peak at four and he has still only had one crop reach that stage of maturity, including his first Grade I winner.

Tonalist has always looked a quarry of old-school virtue, extending the same Toll Booth-Missy Baba line as Havre de Grace (Saint Liam) and author of 11 triple-digit Beyers in a $3.6-million career. Here was a horse that never stopped trying and breeders wanting to tap into Tapit, at an affordable fee, should take a similar approach.

Gold: KARAKONTIE (Jpn) (Bernstein–Sun Is Up (Jpn), by Sunday Silence)
$10,000 Gainesway

Have Antony Beck and his Gainesway team pulled off what has lately come to seem nearly impossible, and found a viable niche for a young turf stallion in Kentucky?

Karakontie has only been credited with 143 named foals to date but he has mustered seven black-type winners, four in graded stakes including Princess Grace, winner of two Grade IIs, two Grade IIIs and last month placed in her debut at the elite level. With his cosmopolitan pedigree, moreover, Karakontie has pushed the boundaries in terms of racing surface, too. Another Grade II winner, None Above the Law, has scored on turf, dirt and synthetics, while Sole Volante put himself on the Derby trail in the Florida preps last year.

Their sire has meanwhile maintained a useful sale ring capacity to hit one out of the park. He sold a $310,000 colt at Keeneland September, to follow on from yearlings that raised $500,000 and $220,000 at the same auction the previous year. And he has also consolidated quietly after suffering the customary slide from a three-figure debut book to just 43 mares in his third season. He has since covered 69, 88 and 76 mares, which may not look spectacular but suggests that people noticed his early achievements–like two first-crop yearlings, $6,000 apiece, making the gate for the G1 2,000 Guineas and GI Kentucky Derby–and gives him a legitimate foothold in a notoriously hostile environment even to the most eligible of turf stallions.

And that is just what he is, remember, having made his own stellar contributions to one of the most illustrious families in the breed today–his third dam is Miesque herself, so this is the Kingmambo clan–as a Group 1 winner at two and elite miling sophomore (French Classic/Breeders' Cup winner, 110 Beyer). This is a conduit of pure class, every way you cut it, and he has shown that he will take such chances as he's given.

Having this year started just nine juveniles (four winners so far, one stakes-placed) from that small third book, he has now got over the biggest bump in his road. And I'd be interested in odds about him siring a Grade I winner before the foals he breeds this coming spring go under the hammer. Overall this is a horse that really does offer hope that he can overcome the self-destructive prejudices of commercial breeding in Kentucky.

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Value Sires, Part IV: First Juveniles in ’22

Though the first three installments of this series have featured the stallions with most to prove, we know that they will collectively be dominating commercial traffic in the new covering season. But today we come to the group that has just completed that first, critical market cycle–and finally stands on the brink of testing their stock where it really counts.

Or should count, anyway. The sad reality is that they have already exhausted their usefulness to a lot of breeders, many of whom will meanwhile have ridden the carousel through two subsequent intakes of rookies and will now be sizing up a third.

Even the rest of us, as a result, face a challenge in seeking that delicate value equilibrium between market energy, which will keep that famous “pipeline” loaded, and keeping the faith with those we think will come good on the racetrack. The second part of the equation demands particular perseverance, of course, when it comes to those whose stock may require a second turn and maturity to approach their full potential. By the same token, as such types almost inevitably tend to lose numerical support, so they offer the potential of increased reward for those that do hang in there. By the time the yearlings conceived next spring come to market, this group will have sent a second sophomore crop into the fray. If those first couple of crops come good, then there's potential for demand greatly to exceed supply.

Needless to say, that's not a gamble too many commercial breeders are inclined to make, when it can be so much easier to make a fast buck from sires whose ability to recycle their excellence on the racetrack remains more or less completely unknown. It's not as though we ever learn as much as we might think from the market's reception of first weanlings and yearlings. In most years, averages tend to replicate pretty scrupulously the rankings implied by fees, with only marginal deviations indicating one or two whose stock has either disappointed or surpassed expectations.

This lot, however, have experienced a little more volatility. The averages achieved by first yearlings in 2021 disclose a couple of pretty blatant disasters, as well as a couple of equally conspicuous outliers in a positive direction–one of which duly retains a place on the value podium.
As with the previous intake, several of these were given fee cuts last year by farms making a really substantial gesture to breeders facing the uncertainties of the pandemic economy.

Given that these sires have meanwhile reached a notoriously vulnerable moment in their careers, some have been trimmed again; while others who have performed very well in the sales ring remain pegged at a rate that has come to seem pretty indulgent with the market having rallied so powerfully since. In other words, there should be plenty of value around.

One young stallion, admittedly, has proved such a smash at the sales that–most unusually, for one at this tricky crossroads–access will cost 50% more than last spring ahead of the launch of his first juveniles. City of Light, now up to $60,000, sold 67 of 75 for a spectacular average of $337,698. We'll have to see whether he can keep up that kind of momentum as these animals proceed to the track, not having been the most precocious himself, but he basically hasn't stopped glittering between his first career and the start of his second.

City of Light is a compliment to one of those farms that believes its clients' interests best served by restrained book sizes. In fairness, however, both Justify and Mendelssohn showed that the more industrial model can also function at ringside. It did feel almost shocking that both should have covered as many as 252 mares in their debut seasons, but each achieved the necessary dividends at the sales. Indeed, value being a relative concept, you could even make a case for Justify to be on the podium now that he has had consecutive cuts from $150,000 to $125,000 and now $100,000.

But those who can afford to operate at that kind of level can clearly make those judgements for themselves! So here, as subjectively as ever, are our suggestions for three more accessible steps of the pyramid. Once again, no apologies for fidelity to stallions we've liked all along. Though too much of this business operates as though their work is already done, they actually haven't even started yet–and they certainly haven't done anything to warrant desertion.

Bubbling under: For a stallion who has apparently been tough to handle at times, Bolt d'Oro is certainly getting with the program where it counts: he got the big numbers through that revolving door at Spendthrift, with 214 mares in his debut book at $25,000, and his $155,097 average edged out two $35,000 start-ups in Mendelssohn and Good Magic. Having participated in his farm's big gesture last year when slashed to $15,000, he is actually restored to $20,000 this time around–but is plainly entitled to make that fee work if he gets juveniles as accomplished as he was himself.

At the same farm, Cloud Computing processed his first crop at a brisk rate (53 sold of 60 at $45,783) and we've spoken previously in this series of trying to catch a rising tide with his sire Maclean's Music. A feasible roll of the dice at $5,000.

Bronze: ARMY MULE (Friesan Fire–Crafty Toast by Crafty Prospector)
$7,500 Hill 'n' Dale

Okay, so sire and damsire together hardly represent an obvious commercial formula, while his career was confined to four minutes. But there's no denying that this was a pretty wild talent. He won each of his three starts, by an aggregate 22 lengths, smashing the GI Carter H. on his stakes debut by half a dozen lengths in 1:20.94.

What would the market make of this meteor? Well, his opening book of 140 slumped to 47 next time round and he was trimmed from $10,000 to $7,500. Maybe those who responded, with 83 covers last spring, had noticed his weanlings had shown something of the physical majesty that underpinned his bullet time as a $825,000 F-T Midlantic sale-topping juvenile.

With that profile, he always seemed an obvious pinhooking medium and doubtless that helped to drive a stunning debut at the yearling sales. With a colt and filly both hitting $400,000, he shifted 63 of 76 at $91,809–nine times their conception fee!

One way or another, the genes were certainly functioning in this freak: remember that his sire has an aristocratic pedigree, while his first three dams respectively scored at stakes, Grade III and Grade II level. John Sikura is building something special on a far narrower foundation, in Maclean's Music, and I suspect that those who get aboard with Army Mule now will already find themselves ahead of the curve at the 2-year-old sales–never mind once the freshmen's championship begins to take shape.

Silver: MO TOWN (Uncle Mo–Grazie Mille by Bernardini)
$7,500 Ashford

Now here's a guy whose every trajectory is climbing sharply–with the solitary exception of his fee, which is 40% down on his opening $12,500. Time, in other words, for breeders to catch a rising tide.

Having stayed in training at four, only to disappear after a single start in the spring, he was rather a forgotten horse when assembling a debut book of 144. In 2020, down to $10,000, he received 108 partners. Last spring, however, came a transformation: encouraged by Uncle Mo's flying start as a sire of sires, no fewer than 204 mares profited from another reduction in his fee (partly, of course, a Covid concession). So whatever Mo Town can do with his first couple of crops, he is going to be far better placed than most to consolidate.

In the meantime, moreover, Mo Town has made a fine debut at the yearling sales, processing 70 of 78 at an average $60,250. And his stock is entitled to land running, Mo Town having won the GII Remsen S. at two. Though he had to regroup the following year, he eventually did so with a dashing turn of foot to land his Grade I on turf (his half-sister by War Front was runner-up in an Irish Classic).

And, actually, let's just forget Uncle Mo for a minute. For the bottom half of this horse's pedigree has been beautifully seeded, with his first five dams by Bernardini, Carson City, Danzig, Sir Ivor and Native Dancer, the fifth being a full sister to Raise A Native. (As such, the purchase of the Grade I-placed granddam as a bargain weanling showed a typically alert Gunther touch, her sire Carson City being a grandson of Raise A Native.)

But nobody, of course, is going to forget Uncle Mo for terribly long. His stratospheric pricing will surely direct the farm's less affluent clients towards an alternative so eligible to emulate those already making Uncle Mo well named as a young sire of sires. Momentum is exactly what Mo Town has now, at a stage in his career when most rivals are nervously treading water.

Gold: ACCELERATE (Lookin At Lucky–Issues by Awesome Again)
$15,000 Lane's End

A horse like this was never going to cause a commercial stampede. Even so, he was priced with nearly brutal realism, at just $20,000. That told us much that was wrong with our business, as this was a model racehorse whose soundness and attitude underpinned a $6.7 million career of inexorable improvement, crowned by what would have been a Horse of the Year campaign but for the claims of a historic Triple Crown winner (five Grade Is interrupted only by a neck defeat at nine furlongs by the dasher City Of Light). But the strategy paid off with an opening book of 167, really pushing the boundaries by the laudably conservative standards of this farm. He has been ticking over nicely enough over the two seasons since, too, with another 213 mares; and processed his first yearlings at a perfectly respectable rate, rehousing 70 of 88 at $72,831.

Even from such a terribly low base, Accelerate has been consecutively eased to $17,500 and now $15,000. He's an unbelievable amount of horse for that kind of money. We know that his own sire remains scandalously under-rated, but turn that round and ask yourself what kind of physique he must be recycling to raise $380,000 as a yearling from one of the best judges in the game.

That's all packaged with brothers placed at Grade I and Grade III level, their dam a stakes-placed half-sister to a Grade I winner; he's also inbred to Broodmare of the Year Smartaire. Not a chink in his armor, then, and you'll be sorry to have turned down this insulting fee when foals bred at much higher cost start being crushed by his stock.

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Values Sires for 2022, Part 3: First Yearlings

With the global economy tottering in the Covid headwind, last year a lot of stallion farms went out of their way to help breeders with fee cuts. As a result, as I've previously suggested, the market's remarkable rally since means that the present trading environment represents a pretty historic opportunity. And that particularly applies to the next group in our series, as the first to have absorbed those cuts. (Even last year, it felt as though the rookies had been priced with the usual and necessary opportunism.) Especially because one or two of these, from that lowered base, have now received an extra trim of the kind customarily offered, in plainer times, for stallions beginning to lose the priceless commercial advantage of novelty.

His third book is always an early crossroads in a stallion's career. While the second might at least start to reflect the physical impression made by first foals, the third will be responding to some concrete evidence of their reception in the ring. If things have not gone well, in that initial test, then some breeders will tend to back off and wait until stock has been measured more rigorously on the racetrack.

Obviously there's no guarantee that the guy who tops the weanling averages will retain his primacy when finally reaching that stage, and vice versa. But it's no less clear that a depressing number of people will by then have disappeared over the horizon, the job done, meanwhile engaged on the next cycle of sires that remain spared the inconvenience of exposing their ability (or otherwise) actually to come up with runners.

As things stand, then, we must pick a precarious path between trying to harness the undeniable energies of the market-commercial esteem, after all, will hold up book sizes and so fill “the pipeline”–and keeping the faith with those that you think deserve a chance to reward it, once their stock finally gets somewhere near a starting gate. As such, each having come through his first market test in decent shape, we make no apologies for sticking by three stallions we've liked from the get-go.

With this particular intake, most roads have led to Spendthrift. In the first instance, that was simply because so many of its most coveted prospects were herded up there. Even with their reliably competitive pricing strategy, the late B. Wayne Hughes and his team launched the first, second and joint-third most expensive rookies in 2020. That felt like a pretty significant moment in the evolution of the aggressive commercial model that had revolutionised competition for mares in the Bluegrass.

But then, last year, you also had to factor in the characteristic lead taken by Hughes in cutting fees so purposefully. Rival farms will duly have to pardon Spendthrift's central role in the value conversation, at least for this instalment of our series, even though our top pick a) wasn't one of their headline recruits when starting out and b) was already priced too attractively to be one of the 15 of 21 stallions on the farm roster to take a cut last year.

As ever, however, these choices reflect just one person's highly subjective opinions. Different stallions fit different mares; different fees fit different pockets. But what I would say is that it's a good time to stick with any of this group that you do like, as you'll be taking the foals to market after they have actually started to show their wares on the track. That introduces a degree of volatility, and tends to drive nervous breeders elsewhere. But the odds for those who do get it right will certainly be rewarding.

Bubbling under: The $360,000 Audible filly that topped the fifth session at Keeneland November was the most expensive weanling sold by those taking their bow at the sales, but the WinStar stallion's $110,000 median was also outstanding. He was a pathfinder for his sire in stretching out for a Derby podium and, as a classier type, also leads a fresh wave in Into Mischief's career as a sire of sires. He covered over 400 mares in his first two seasons and duly holds his fee at $22,500. He has all the momentum he needs, but he's just competing with another son of Into Mischief who simply can't be dislodged from the podium at a much cheaper service.

Mitole was one of those that took a really businesslike cut at Spendthrift last year, slashed to $15,000 from $25,000. Having followed up his staggering debut book of 230 with one of 208, there will be a lot of people out there gratified that his pedigree has meanwhile received such a lift from the stellar sophomore endeavors of half-brother Hot Rod Charlie (Oxbow). That might feel especially useful for a son of the exported Eskendereya, but don't forget that Mitole was his second GI Met Mile winner in three crops. His first weanlings having performed in line with his opening fee, fourth in the averages, this brilliant racehorse finds himself precisely where the program would hope to have placed him at this stage.

Bronze: PRESERVATIONIST (Arch-Flying Dixie by Dixieland Band) Airdrie, $10,000

This guy was always going to require a little patience, so it's no surprise that he couldn't repeat his opening three-figure book. But we can't just allow block-booking of the podium for stallions that churn through industrial numbers, in the idle hope that they will keep jumping through the market hoops until you discover, too late, that they don't sire runners!

A runner is exactly what you are entitled to expect from Preservationist, and I remain adamant that those who keep the faith will ultimately get their due reward. He offers everything we should be looking for in a young sire: a superb physical ($485,000 yearling, when Arch was a $30,000 cover); a pedigree without a single loose rivet, with sire and dam both tracing to King Ranch matriarchs; and elite performance, for instance in thrashing Catholic Boy (More Than Ready) by 4 1/2 lengths in the GII Suburban. (The runner-up went to market at more than twice the fee.)

A lack of precocity is perceived by some as the cardinal sin, but Preservationist's weanlings actually performed perfectly respectably (averaging just under $40,000) and he will run down those commercial hares in the end.

Silver: OMAHA BEACH (War Front-Charming by Seeking The Gold), Spendthrift, $30,000

The loss of Spendthrift's owner this summer has given the poignant look of a parting gift to the characteristically decisive lead he took on fees this time last year. Now the team continuing his work has given Omaha Beach another trim, from $35,000 to $30,000, even though he had appeared sportingly priced (notwithstanding his status as the most expensive of the intake) when starting out at $45,000.

This latest gesture to breeders is one that the horse hardly appeared to need. Last spring he precisely replicated his opening book, at 215 mares, and then did the necessary in his debut at the weanling sales, topping the averages at $142,692.

Bottom line, then, is that Omaha Beach has been given every possible chance to this point. And he really is abundantly equipped to seize it. Winning Grade Is at six and nine furlongs in the same campaign was as compelling a signpost as we could hope to find, nowadays, for the speed-carrying elixir we crave in stallions. As such, he must be counted a vital ambassador on the main track for a son of Danzig whose influence has proved so international.

It's not hard to figure out where he has found the genes to do that. He's a half-brother to champion Take Charge Brandi (Giant's Causeway) out of a half-sister to two other Grade I winners in Will Take Charge (Unbridled's Song) and Take Charge Indy (A.P. Indy), their dam Take Charge Lady (Dehere) herself a multiple elite scorer. He also doubles up War Front's damsire Rubiano behind his third dam. We know how Rubiano's half-sister gave us a monster dirt influence in Tapit, while the other three sires seeding the bottom half of Omaha Beach's third generation are Raise A Native, Buckpasser and Deputy Minister.

Omaha Beach looked pretty good value at his opening fee, as the market has immediately confirmed. He looked great value, last year, at $35,000. So what can we call him at $30,000? Even those who can afford to play at this level of the market appreciate that kind of saving. In relative terms, then, this is a very generous fee.

Gold: MAXIMUS MISCHIEF (Into Mischief-Reina Maria by Songandaprayer), Spendthrift, $7,500

We couldn't really offer a greater contrast to Preservationist than this blatant commercial formula. But from the outset Maximus Mischief had the look of a horse that could bring back memories for those clients of the farm who got his sire started, and everything has so far been functioning like clockwork. In this day and age, in fact, I find it mildly surprising that he could muster “only” 171 mares last spring after receiving 198 in his debut book.

His first weanlings sold every bit as briskly as one would hope, 26 of 31 finding a new home for an average $42,153–approaching six times his covering fee. With his record of precocity, Maximus Mischief looks tailormade for pinhookers and his yearlings will surely be high on the list for a winter in Florida. (Remember he was himself a $340,000 2-year-old at Timonium.)

Having disappeared after his first defeat, on his sophomore debut, Maximus Mischief went to market with a seamless juvenile record, beaten to a single call in three starts while opening up by an aggregate 17 lengths, the visuals underpinned by the fastest Beyer of the crop. We're familiar with Into Mischief upgrading his early mares, not least in producing some of his first sons to stud, so it counts for plenty that this guy's second dam also produced the tragic juvenile Grade I winner Secret Compass (Discreet Cat) from only three foals.

It's the easiest thing in the world to picture all this translating into a run at the 2023 freshman championship. If that happens, not only will this fee soon recede in the rear-view mirror: it will be those who stay aboard now who reap the benefits at ringside.

There really is a limit to how many horses like this, flaring brightly but briefly, we want to see shaping the breed. But if the purpose of this exercise is to identify value, then the modest stakes–and the potential odds of reward–are just too tempting to resist.

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Value Sires, Part II: First Foals in ’22

Even last year, when doing so much to fortify breeders through the uncertainties of the pandemic, stallion farms appeared to price their rookies to squeeze the usual juice from the commercial market's greatest addiction.

That was fair enough. Nowadays farm accountants can bank only on the most fleeting of vogues in drawing up a business plan for stallion acquisitions. And nor can we sensibly expect any slack now, pending the arrival of first foals and then a debut at the weanling sales next fall. A stallion has to be in pretty obvious trouble to have his fee significantly trimmed for his second season, as a candid devaluation will be received as a blatant kick by those who were prepared to assist in getting him going.

In principle, then, not a great deal can have changed since we first sieved this group last winter. Certainly I can't imagine anyone pays the remotest attention to “covering sire” averages, which are so transparently incidental to the inherent value of such mares as randomly happen to be offered. The one new ingredient in play, then, tends to be the size of debut books.

For the vast majority, in numerical terms, the only way from here is down. As such, the covering stats do not augur terribly well for some of those we thought best value. And maddeningly, because these cycles are so self-fulfilling, it's hard to turn things round if you do struggle for early traction. A disappointing first book places a tough burden on its graduates to get you over the hump of the intervening couple of crops, which will tend to be smaller yet. So our faith in one or two, while undiminished, may not obviously yield “value” in the shorter term. If fairly priced now, at least measured by your odds of getting a runner, they are probably going to become better value yet during the next year or two.

At the other end of the spectrum, though the most expensive of the intake, Horse of the Year Authentic covered as many as 229 mares–only one fewer than the busiest stallion in the land, Goldencents. (Both, of course, are sons of Into Mischief standing alongside their champion sire at Spendthrift.) A number of other start-ups also welcomed enormous books: Vekoma 222, McKinzie 214, Instagrand 190, Thousand Words 184, Volatile 181, and Global Campaign and Improbable 177 apiece. One way or another, then, some highly eligible prospects are going to have their work cut out to match the kind of freshman headlines some of these rivals are bound to seize through sheer weight of numbers.

So between these high-water marks, and those struggling near the storm drain, where can we still seek a rising tide? Here are one or two thoughts–as subjective as ever, and with due apology to the many promising types overlooked in our more concise new format.

Bubbling under: Hard to know whether a commercial market so childishly nervous of grass influences will do adequate justice to a great opportunity in War of Will (War Front). But it's hugely encouraging that this Grade I winner on both dirt and turf, by a son of one breed-shaper out of the daughter of another, was overrun with 143 partners at $25,000: by the laudably conservative standards of his farm, an outright stampede. War of Will merits close consideration by European breeders, too, with every right to become a valuable international influence.

Vekoma (Candy Ride {Arg}) has been given a trademark Spendthrift launch with a monster book at $20,000. All farms that operate this kind of system obviously offer yearling sellers a double-edged sword, but Vekoma, from the family of Street Sense and Danehill Dancer (Ire) among others, represents a promising sire of sires and can certainly recycle a ton of speed and class. Of those who corralled such big numbers, this guy looks value to make them count–even before a friendly trim to $17,500.

One of the most controversial races in Derby history, in contrast, is struggling for commercial credibility. But you can't have it both ways: if some people have decided to punish the hapless Maximum Security (who gets a fee cut) for allegations against his trainer, then at least they should give Country House (Lookin At Lucky) due respect. As it is, he was unlucky to be denied the opportunity of authenticating his breakthrough; and nor did he then get quite the numbers he deserved when sent to Darby Dan at just $7,500. Someday, perhaps, he will finally get some overdue credit by proxy, and sire a colt to pass the Derby post first. Inbred to the Sam-Son matriarch No Class, that's something he is absolutely entitled to do and, like his sire, he remains excellent value for those of sufficiently independent outlook.

Global Campaign | Sarah Andrew

Bronze: GLOBAL CAMPAIGN (Curlin–Globe Trot, by A.P. Indy)
$12,500 WinStar

I suspect that this guy is going to prove a brisker influence in his new career than might be anticipated. Yes, he was unraced at two (albeit only by a matter of days, scoring on debut Jan. 5); and nor did he try Grade I company until his last two starts at four, when winning the Woodward and outrunning his odds for third in the Breeders' Cup Classic. But if people won't be expecting too much, too soon, from a son of Curlin whose first two dams are by A.P. Indy and Lord At War (Arg)–both, incidentally, stellar distaff influences–this is a family that can inject surprising doses of speed.

That second dam, herself a three-time graded stakes winner, is a half-sister to the dam of Zensational (Unbridled's Song), whose three Grade I sprints qualify him as the fastest son of his sire. The next dam was a half-sister to the dams of one sprinter that broke the five-furlong track record at Churchill, and of another that did the same over six furlongs (turf) at Woodbine. And of course Global Campaign's half-brother Bolt d'Oro was hardly a standard issue Medaglia d'Oro (not that there's any such thing, really) in featuring a 103 Beyer in his champion juvenile campaign. Sure enough, Global Campaign outpaced a smart sprinter in Yorkton (Speightstown) over seven furlongs at Gulfstream on his 4-year-old comeback, and I have a hunch that he didn't quite last home at the Breeders' Cup. Having controlled the tempo when winning over nine furlongs, I wonder how he might have fared given more of a chance at a mile.

Regardless, a debut book of 177 is a major leg-up, and due reward for realistic pricing. I'm not saying that Global Campaign will necessarily have loads of precocious juveniles, but expect him to achieve a viable base and then to consolidate. Factor in his fee, and he rather sets himself apart from those with even bigger books: most are more expensive, and others don't obviously match his eligibility to sire the type of horses we should all be looking for.

Honor A. P. | Amy Lanigan

Silver: HONOR A. P. (Honor Code–Hollywood Story, by Wild Rush)
$15,000 Lane's End

Still fantastic value, still a whole lot of racehorse for this money. And I cling stubbornly to the belief that he was as talented as any of his generation, beating the Horse of the Year on merit the only time they met properly toe-to-toe (undercooked for their first encounter; undone by a shocking trip in their third).

The only reason he doesn't retain the top step is that a book of 110, which should be ample in a sane world, may contain some that emulate their sire in only really announcing themselves round a second turn, and maybe with a little maturity too (bearing in mind that imposing physique). The book of 190 assembled by the precocious Instagrand, for instance, is presumably more likely to produce maiden winners at Keeneland's spring meet. It's possible, then, that the notoriously myopic commercial market might not grant Honor A. P. due attention until the playing field starts to level out.

Once through that crossroads, however, those who do hang in there will definitely have the last laugh. And remember that a horse this beautiful, in the meantime, almost guarantees a home run or two at the sales. Honor A. P. must have been close to the most prodigious physical of the crop, as measured by his $850,000 yearling tag; while his dam won Grade Is at two and five, a comfort in view of the way his own light career restricted wider appreciation of his talent. She has also contributed three other black-type operators to a branch of the Myrtlewood dynasty (Global Campaign, incidentally, represents another) that has been seeded pretty seamlessly by venerable Classic influences.

Honor A. P. absolutely merits fidelity, and will someday make this fee look like a gift.

Complexity | Sarah Andrew

Gold: COMPLEXITY (Maclean's Music–Goldfield, by Yes It's True)
$12,500 Airdrie

How does Complexity elbow his way right through to the top of the podium? Not too complex, really. For one thing, his farewell performance in the GI Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile has obtained a fresh luster: trying to lie up with Knicks Go (Paynter) from a wide draw, through opening splits of 22.15 and 22.39 (producing a faster six furlongs than in the Sprint on the same card), has turned out to be a still tougher ask than it seemed at the time–especially round a second turn, which was probably not Complexity's true metier. This time last year, moreover, Maclean's Music was still available at $25,000. A breakout Grade I exacta this summer has doubled his fee, requiring smaller breeders to ponder his potential as a sire of sires instead. Above all, however, Complexity received no fewer than 158 mares in his debut book: as close to oversubscription as this model farm will allow.

That puts him right in the center of the conversation for the freshmen's championship. Remember he made all for his emphatic GI Champagne S. success, as indeed he had when thrashing future Grade II and stakes winners on debut in Saratoga. Complexity regrouped after a troubled sophomore campaign to be just nailed in the GI Forego S., after again sharing a wild tempo out wide, and all you need to know about his build is that Mike Ryan gave $375,000 to make him the most expensive yearling in his sire's third crop.

You can anticipate voracious pinhooking interest in his yearlings and, while the left-field sires of his first three dams get credit primarily for variegation, they do represent august lines (Bold Ruler, Bold Ruler, Never Bend). As with American Pharoah, for instance, the important thing is that the genetic cocktail is plainly functioning potently. And don't forget that Complexity's dam has also produced a GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies runner-up, and she's out of an 11-time winner who ran second at Grade II level.

This horse couldn't be in better hands and, having gained a good deal while others have more or less had to stand and wait, everything is in place to elevate the value of any investments made in him now.

The post Value Sires, Part II: First Foals in ’22 appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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